БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ

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Бонус 35% на первое пополнение по промокоду elitetrader
Правительственные органы США, ответственные за контроль над банковской системой, будут более пристально отслеживать взаимоотношения коммерческих банков и розничных клиентов, покупающих валюту для участия в торговых сделках валютного рынка, – говориться в законопроекте Правительственные органы США, ответственные за контроль над банковской системой, будут более пристально отслеживать взаимоотношения коммерческих банков и розничных клиентов, покупающих валюту для участия в торговых сделках валютного рынка, – говориться в законопроекте. Согласно планам Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, от банков потребуют ввести для таких клиентов маржу в размере 2% для основных валют, как например, евро и доллар США, и 5% от номинальной суммы сделки для прочих валют. Кроме того, банкам придется вести более развернутый учет таких сделок и предоставлять своим клиентам больше информации, как то, комиссионные, взимаемые банком. Вместе с тем, новые правила не коснутся крупных компаний, работающих на рынке свопов или деривативных инструментов, также эти новшества имеют своей целью защитить не особо искушенных индивидуальных инвесторов.

Это предложение аналогично правилам Commodity Futures Trade Commission, опубликованным в сентябре прошлого года – принятые с целью пресечения мошенничества при розничных валютных сделках в банках.

WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) — U.S. bank regulators would more strictly supervise banks' relationships with retail customers who speculate in the foreign exchange market, under a proposal issued on Tuesday. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp plan would require retail customers who engage in foreign exchange transactions with a bank, that are not cleared through an exchange, to post a margin amount of 2 percent in the case of major currencies, such as the dollar and euro. The amount would rise to 5 percent of the notional value of the transaction for some other currencies. Banks also would have to keep more transaction records and give customers more information on things such as the fees they are being charged. The rule does not affect large companies involved in the derivatives and swaps markets and is instead aimed at protecting less-sophisticated individual investors.

The proposal is similar to a final rule published in September by the Commodity Futures Trade Commission in response what it said was retail fraud in the currency trading area. It is also similar to a proposal released last month by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The board of the FDIC voted to put the proposal out for 30 days of public comment. The FDIC only has a small part in policing this market. It said only one of the banks it regulates is involved in the retail foreign exchange business. It did not identify the bank. The rule is required by last year's Dodd-Frank financial oversight law. «It's really focused on the speculative activity that provides higher risk and for which additional consumer protections would seem justified,» said FDIC Vice Chairman Martin Gruenberg said.

Citigroup is among the largest banks that offer foreign exchange trading services to retail customers. Retail customers are often individuals trying to make money by speculating on currency fluctuations. The requirements will limit how much they can borrow when making bets. Under the rule, a retail customer is defined as someone who has less than $10 million in assets. In January, The CFTC sued 14 firms that it alleged illegally solicited investors to participate in foreign currency transactions. In all but two of the complaints, the CFTC alleged that defendants acted as retail foreign exchange dealer, offering to or taking the opposite side of a customer's forex transaction without being registered.


Клиринговая компания LCH.Clearnet Ltd повышает маржинальные требования к долговым бумагам Португалии до 45%

На прошлой неделе LCH.Clearnet Ltd повышала маржинальные требования к бумагам Ирландии (до 55%) теперь повышены требования по обеспечению бумаг Португалии с 35% до 45%.Подробнее о решении LCH.Clearnet Ltd можно посмотреть на сайт компании здесь: www.lchclearnet.com/risk_management/ltd/margin_rate_circulars/repoclear/2011-05-10.asp

АКТИВЫ ФОНДА СЕРЕБРА (ISHARES SILVER) ВЫРОСЛИ НА 3%.АКТИВЫ ФОНДА ЗОЛОТА (SPDR GOLD TRUST) СНИЗИЛИСЬ НА 0.3%

May 10 (Reuters) — Holdings of the largest silver-backed ETF, New York's iShares Silver Trust rose 3 percent on Monday from Friday, while the largest gold-backed exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's SPDR Gold Trust dipped 0.28 percent for the same period. Holdings of Julius Baer Physical Silver Fund dropped about 12 percent on May 9 from May 5. ETFS Physical Silver Shares' holdings dropped about 5 percent on May 9 from May 6. Exchange-traded funds, the most widely recognised type of ETP, back each security issued with physical stocks of a given commodity, creating a product they say is free from counterparty risk.

БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ
БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ
БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ
БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ


АКТИВЫ ДРАГОЦЕННЫХ МЕТТАЛОВ НА БАЛАНСЕ У ВСЕХ ТРАСТОВЫХ ФОНДОВ:

БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ


REUTERS СОВЕТУЕТ:ТЕМ КТО ДЕЛАЕТ СТАВКУ НА СНИЖЕНИЕ ЕВРО,НАДО ПОКУПАТЬ ДОЛЛАР АВСТРАЛИИ ПРОТИВ ЕВРО

Об этом пишет рыночный стратег агентства Reuters, господин Neal Kimberley.Он полагает, что если рассчитывать либо на снижение евро к американскому доллару, либо сохранение слабости евро из-за проблем в Греции и других странах Еврозоны, то в этом случае в выигрыше будет австралийский доллар.Учитывая, что после распродаж на рынке сырья на прошлой неделе, пострадали и сырьевые валюты, то создаются неплохие возможности нового входа в такие валюты как австралийский доллар.Но лучше всего сыграть на понижение евро против доллара Австралии, так как в процессе ликвидации длинных позиций на рынке сырья, инвесторы избавлялись и от сырьевых валют.Таким образом, принимая во внимание большую ликвидацию позиций в долларе Австралии, теперь перспективы этой валюты смотрятся более сбалансированными, по крайне мере против евро и можно сыграть на достижение этой парой (евро/аусси) предыдущего минимума на уровне в 1.2920.Тем более, что судя по текущей напряженности на рынках, ЕЦБ просто вынужден будет держать паузу в цикле ужесточения своей монатрной политики.

БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ


http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/04/EZ_BNKMP0411_SB.html

By Neal Kimberley LONDON, May 10 (Reuters) — Investors who expect euro zone sovereign credit tensions to push the euro lower in the coming weeks may be tempted to hold a short euro position against the Australian dollar, given the latter's persistent attractions. Buffeted by last week's broad sell-off in commodities, those who were already holding short euro/Australian dollar positions are likely to have been squeezed out on the spike to A$1.3927 where the cross topped out on May 5. That squeeze has left the market much better balanced, allowing the downside momentum to be re-established. Therefore, while the cross is already back down at A$1.3320 on Tuesday, it has scope to extend its slide to January's lows, near A$1.2920.

Of course, a renewed short euro/Australian dollar position would need to be predicated on the view that commodity markets will be relatively calm and would need to be re-evaluated if those markets were to suffer renewed pronounced sell-offs. That aside, there are sound reasons for considering such a short position. First, the interest rate differential glaringly favours the Australian currency. While the European Central Bank (ECB) may be considering whether to increase its benchmark policy rate from 1.25 percent in the coming months , the Australian official interest rate is already 4.75 percent. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said on Friday a further rise in interest rates will be needed.

Another reason to consider a short euro position against the Australian dollar is the likelihood that demand for Australian commodity exports, particularly from resource-hungry Asian economies, will remain, at the very least, solid. A good example is coal. On May 3, India's Adani Enterprises agreed to buy Abbot Point Coal Terminal in Australia for $2 billion. Delhi's intention to halve its nearly 14 percent peak-hour power deficit within two years may well mean Australian coal is to the fore in the 135 million tonnes of coal India is likely to import in the fiscal year that began on April 1. In China, where coal-fired power plants generate around 80 percent of electricity output, it is a similar story.

Trade flows may also influence central banks' reserve management. Asian central banks, who are accruing dollar reserves and diversifying some of those greenbacks into other currencies, may be attracted anew to the Australian dollar, given the increased trade flows with Australia and the Aussie's yield. While such central banks will also be adding euros as part of their diversification strategy, their complementary interest in the Australian dollar could well limit the impact of any euro/dollar buying on the euro/Australian dollar rate.

OUT OF THEIR COMFORT ZONE Renewed uncertainties over the ability of the euro zone periphery to steer itself back to financial health also have the scope to hurt the euro. The European Union (EU) is looking to lower interest rates on bailout loans to Greece and Ireland and is working on a second rescue for Athens in an effort to prevent a disorderly debt restructuring.Investors may be unimpressed by perceived renewed euro zone horse trading, especially if they draw the conclusion that the periphery borrowers are dictating terms to the lenders. Upfront concessions to the periphery in return for future policy adjustments may not prove to be a reason to keep selling the euro, but it may lessen the appetite to buy it. Moreover, EU banking exposures to Greece remain very substantial.

In such a scenario, euro/dollar might struggle to hold its value even as the Australian dollar regains upward momentum against the U.S. dollar. A short euro/Australian dollar position, albeit with one eye on developments in the commodities markets, may therefore prove attractive.


ДЕНЕЖНЫЙ РЫНОК ЕВРОЗОНЫ:ИЗБЫТОЧНЫЕ РЕЗЕРВЫ БАНКОВ НА СЧЕТАХ ЕЦБ СНОВА ВЫРОСЛИ.СПРОС НА КРЕДИТЫ НИЗКИЙ

БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ
БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ
БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ
БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ
БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ


ЧЛЕН ЕЦБ,ГОСПОДИН STARK ГОВОРИТ:ГРЕЦИИ НЕ НУЖНА РЕСТРУКТУРИЗАЦИЯ

Несмотря на чрезмерную задолженность Греции, она не является неплатежеспособной и не нуждается в реструктуризации своего гос. долга, – заявляет в интервью немецкому радио Bayerischer Rundfunk Член Правления ЕЦБ Юрген Штарк. – «В конце концов, реструктуризация не решит глубинных проблем Греции. Этой стране нужно решить структурные проблемы и привести в порядок собственный национальный бюджет». По мнению финансиста, программа, согласованная Грецией со своими зарубежными кредиторами год тому в обмен на фин. помощь, вполне реалистична и поэтому должна активно внедряться. Штарк считает, что вчерашний «разгром греческого рейтинга» со стороны агентств был спровоцирован высказываниями политическими лидерами еврозоны насчет острой потребности Афин во втором пакете срочной помощи ввиду необходимости предотвращения стихийного панического пересмотра долговых обязательств Эллады.

BERLIN, May 10 (Reuters) — Greece may be heavily indebted but it is not insolvent and does not need to restructure its debt, European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark said on German radio on Tuesday. «In the end, a restructuring does not solve the problem Greece has to deal with,» Stark told Bayerischer Rundfunk. «Greece has to tackle structural problems, and the budget must be put in order.» Stark said the programme Greece agreed a year ago with international lenders in exchange for a bailout was realistic and must be implemented. «Greece has a high debt level, but Greece is not insolvent,» he said. Credit ratings agencies hammered Greece on Monday after senior euro zone policymakers acknowledged that Athens will need a second bailout package soon to avert a disorderly overhaul of its debt obligations.


ЧЛЕН ЕЦБ ГОСПОДИН BINI ГОВОРИТ:РЕСТРУКТУРИЗАЦИЯ ДОЛГОВ ГРЕЦИИ ПРИВЕДЕТ К КОЛЛАПСУ БАНКОВСКОЙ СИСТЕМЫ

Дефолт Греции или реструктуризация гос. долга этой страны станет причиной коллапса банковской системы из-за потерь по непогашенным векселям и неспособностью ЕЦБ к рефинансированию, – сказал в интервью Член Правления ЕЦБ Лоренцо Бини Смаги. По его мнению, Греция упустила время, допустимое для реструктуризации гос. долга. – «Слишком долго они занимались самообманом – убеждали себя в правдоподобности «рациональной реструктуризации», на самом деле, это не более, чем сказки». Вообще, страны, нуждающиеся в реформе финансовой системы слишком долго выжидают. «К счастью, Испания начала вовремя действовать … это дает возможность относиться к её проблемам по иному, чем к остальным трем «должникам» (Греции, Ирландии, Португалии). Но риски распространения подобных проблем и на Испанию, к сожалению, присутствуют. Кроме того, угроза выхода Греции из еврозоны нанесет урон и другим странам валютного пространства. С другой стороны, я не понимаю идей дальнейшего предоставления помощи на условиях частичных реструктуризации и списания – это не что иное, как порочный круг, провоцирующий невыплату части долга в обмен на еще большую задолженность». Комментируя позицию некоторых немецких политиков, ратующих за реструктуризацию, Смаги сказал: «Это вредит в первую очередь самой Германии – она в числе основных кредиторов Греции».

MILAN, May 10 (Reuters) — A default or restructuring of Greek debt would bring the banking system to its knees because of the losses incurred on bonds and the inability to refinance with the ECB, European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said in an interview on Tuesday. Greece lost too much time considering the possibility of a debt restructuring, Bini Smaghi told Italy's La Stampa. «They convinced themselves that an 'ordered restructuring' is possible before realising that it's a complete fairy story,» he said. The countries that need to reorder their public finances wait too long, he said. «Fortunately Spain acted early… which allowed it to clearly distinguish itself from the other three countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal),» he said. «But the risk of contagion is always there, as we have seen in recent days,» he said. An exit from the euro by Greece would hurt not just Greece but other countries too, he said. «I cannot understand the idea on the other hand of making more aid conditional on some kind of debt restructuring of the country receiving aid,» he said. He said that would produce «perverse behaviour» allowing part of the debt not to be paid in exchange for more debt. Asked about the fact that many in Germany were pushing for a Greek debt restructuring he said: «It is a self-harm position because the main creditors are in Germany.»

В МАЕ,КАЗНАЧЕЙСТВУ США И БЕЛОМУ ДОМУ,НЕ УДАСТЬСЯ ДОГОВОРИТЬСЯ С КОНГРЕССОМ О НОВОМ ЛИМИТЕ ПО ГОСДОЛГУ.РЕШАЮЩИМ СТАНЕТ ИЮЛЬ

Судя по всему, Конгресс не пойдет на одобрение лимита по государственному долгу на переговорах с правительством в мае.Поэтому большинство наблюдателей склоняется к выводу, что ключевые переговоры пройдут в конце июня-начале июля, когда Администрация Обамы должна будет договориться с Конгрессом по вопросам сокращения бюджетных расходов.В данной ситуации, когда уже 16 мая, формально истекают полномочия Казначейства по заимствованиям на долговом рынке, глава Казначейства господин Тимотти Гайтнер, вынужден будет начать маневрирования, с целью экономии средств, чтобы «протянуть» до того момента, когда согласие на увеличение лимита будет получено.Агентство Reuters, предлагает варианты решения проблемы с финансированием бюджетных расходов со стороны Казначейства, в условиях нерешенного вопроса с лимитом по госдолгу:

WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) — The U.S. Treasury is expected to start dipping into federal pension funds on May 16 to give Congress more time to raise the $14.3 trillion debt limit, which caps the amount the country is legally allowed to borrow. On Friday, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was forced to start employing the first of the department's extraordinary measures to give the government room to borrow funds to meet its obligations. As of that date, the total U.S. public debt was just $23 billion below the ceiling. The United States has until Aug. 2 before it will start defaulting on its obligations, such as interest payments. Following is a rundown of some of the measures the Treasury has employed and plans to use in May as well as other steps it could take to stave off the day the current debt limit becomes binding. The Treasury has already drawn down a $200 billion Federal Reserve emergency lending account to $5 billion to free up borrowing capacity.

SUSPEND STATE, LOCAL GOVERNMENT SECURITIES The Treasury on May 6 suspended sales of State and Local Government Series securities — known as «slugs» — which are special low-interest Treasury securities offered to state and local governments to temporarily invest proceeds from municipal bond sales. Slugs, which count against the debt limit, have been suspended six times in the past 20 years to avoid hitting the debt ceiling. The last time they were halted was in September 2007. So far in fiscal 2011, which began on Oct. 1, the Treasury has sold $47.4 billion in slugs to muni bond issuers.

CIVIL SERVICE RETIREMENT AND DISABILITY FUND The Treasury on May 16 will suspend investments in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund, a government employee pension fund, and redeem certain investments. Initially the Treasury can claw back $12 billion in borrowing headroom by declaring a two-month «debt issuance suspension period,» a legal determination specific to this fund. Geithner could also declare a one-year suspension that would free up $72 billion in borrowing ability — an amount equal to about one year's worth of benefit payments. On June 30, the Treasury has another option to halt reinvestment of $67 billion of the fund's securities that mature on that date. However, the Treasury points out that it also has a bond interest payment of $12 billion due on June 30, diminishing the effect of that maneuver. It also must replace any missed contributions and lost earnings to the fund once the borrowing limit is raised.

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES INVESTMENT FUND On May 16 the Treasury will suspend the reinvestments in another federal employee pension fund known as the G-Fund, which has a balance of about $130 billion. Normally the money market-like fund reinvests its entire balance daily into special-issue Treasury securities that count against the debt limit. Halting reinvestments would instantly claw back $130 billion in borrowing capacity, but the Treasury must make the fund whole any lost earnings once the debt limit impasse ends.

EXCHANGE STABILIZATION FUND The Treasury could dip into this seldom-used $50 billion fund earmarked to stabilize currency rates and access the dollar balance — currently about $23 billion — to avoid debt issuance. Created during the Great Depression of the 1930s, the fund was last used as a backstop to guarantee money market mutual funds during the financial crisis from September 2008 to September 2009. The Treasury would not have to restore lost interest earnings to the fund.

ISSUE MORE CASH MANAGEMENT BILLS The Treasury could cut issuance of longer-term government debt and rely more heavily on short-term cash management bills to gain more day-to-day control over debt outstanding. Cash management bills are typically issued for days instead of normal Treasury bill maturities of four weeks to one year. However, this is unlikely to buy much time and officials are wary of making any major shifts in the Treasury's debt issuance calendar, which could upset markets.

SUSPEND SAVINGS BONDS Treasury secretaries in the past have halted sales of U.S. savings bonds to the public during debt limit impasses, but Geithner argues that this would be of little or no use. It would not free up borrowing authority and it would only prevent small amounts of new debt from being issued. Savings bond sales increase the debt by less than $220 million per month on average, giving this measure little potency during a time of trillion-dollar deficits.

SWAP FEDERAL FINANCING BANK DEBT The Federal Financing Bank can issue up to $15 billion in debt on behalf of other government agencies that is not subject to the debt limit. So the Treasury could exchange FFB debt for other debt to reduce the total amount subject to the limit. However, the Treasury says this measure is also of little use because of the very small amounts of obligations available for exchange. The Government Accountability Office has estimated that based on data from last Aug. 31, this measure offered just $4.8 billion in borrowing headroom at that time.

ASSET SALES The government could raise money by selling off chunks of companies it bailed out under its $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. However, Geithner has said this was not a viable option because taxpayers could end up suffering losses from a «fire sale» of financial assets. He also said selling U.S. gold holdings could undermine confidence in the United States. A recently announced plan to sell down the Treasury's mortgage-backed securities portfolio at a rate of $10 billion per month is not expected to make a material difference on the debt limit. For details on this plan, see. Still, the Treasury is planning a stock offering in insurer American International Group Inc this spring that had been expected to top $15 billion. The government's 1.66 billion AIG common shares, however, have taken a hit in recent weeks from market turmoil caused by the Libyan conflict and worries about insured losses from Japan's earthquake. They are now worth about $49.27 billion, compared with $87.4 billion at their peak in January. All net proceeds would go to the government. The Treasury also anticipates initial public offerings this year in automaker Chrysler Holdings and lender Ally Financial Inc, formerly GMAC. It can resume selling General Motors shares after a lock-up agreement expires late May.

HOPE FOR HIGHER TAX RECEIPTS The Treasury was able to stave off its debt limit reckoning by about a month because the April tax filing season produced higher-than-expected receipts. In the first six months of fiscal 2011 they were up about 7 percent, or about $66 billion, from a year earlier, but they fell $2 billion in March, as new cuts in payroll taxes and business tax credits ate into revenue. Job growth is picking up, arguing for higher income tax withholding, but many economists have expressed concern that rising fuel and food costs, coupled with lower government spending, may slow economic growth.


БАНК GOLDMAN SACHS ДЕЛАЕТ СТАВКУ НА НОВУЮ ФАЗУ РОСТА ЦЕН НА СЫРЬЕ

Спустя месяц, после рекомендации для клиентов, фиксировать прибыль от роста цен на сырье, банк Goldman Sachs начинает делать ставку на новое восстановление.Тот самый сырьевой стратег от GS, господин Jeffrey Currie, который и прогнозировал коррекцию сырьевых цен, теперь дает для клиентов новую рекомендацию.Он предлагает начинать покупать контракты на сырье, полагая, что во второй половине года, сформируются условия для новой фазы роста цен.Аргументом в пользу такой позиции, господин Jeffrey Currie, выдвигает слишком сильные и быстрые темпы снижения цен, что создает неплохие возможности для входа в рынок с хорошим потенциалом для будущей прибыли от рост сырьевых цен.В краткосрочной перспективе, стратег из GS пока еще видит риске для дальнейшего снижения стоимости сырья, но предлагает использовать это снижение для покупки.По мнению господина Jeffrey Currie цены упали слишком сильно и слишком быстро, что позволяет сделать вывод о неплохих шансах на новый виток роста во второй половине года, так как фундаментально для сырьевого рынка условия для роста цен сохраняются.

БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ
БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ


May 9 (Bloomberg) — The commodities rout that knocked off $99 billion of market value last week is driving out speculators and leading Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which forecast the plunge, to predict a possible recovery. The combination of slower growth in U.S. service industries and fewer German manufacturing orders helped drive the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities down 11 percent in five days, the most since December 2008, and erased all the gains since mid-March. Wheat, zinc and gold rebounded at the end of the week as U.S. payrolls exceeded economists’ forecasts, reducing concern that demand will weaken. “Given the magnitude of the pullback, it does create an opportunity for more upside potential, particularly in the second half of this year, when fundamentals are expected to tighten,” Jeffrey Currie, the London-based head of commodity research at Goldman, said in a May 6 interview. A month ago, Currie told investors they should be “underweight” in commodities. “In the very near-term, we’d be a little cautious,” he says now.


Подробнее здесь: noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=akZA08gJiUQ4

СОВЕТНИК НЕМЕЦКОГО ПРАВИТЕЛЬСТВА БОФИНГЕР СЧИТАЕТ УМЕСТНЫМ ПРИМЕНИТЬ К ГРЕЦИИ МЕРЫ СТИМУЛИРОВАНИЯ СО СТОРОНЫ ЕС ВМЕСТЕ С ЖЕСТКОЙ ЭКОНОМИЕЙ

Один из пяти «антикризисных мудрецов»-советников федерального правительства Германии Бофингер в интервью REUTERS INSIDER TELEVISION заявляет о необходимости полностью изменить принципиальный подход к «долговой периферии» еврозоны. Кроме того, долговой кризис единого валютного пространства нуждается в комплексном кардинальном решении, иначе необратимые последствия наступят уже в течение ближайших 12 месяцев. ИНТЕРВЬЮ БОФИНГЕРА REUTERS INSIDER

КИТАЙ НЕ СОГЛАСЕН С ПРЕДЛОЖЕННЫМИ США ТЕМПАМИ РЕФОРМ ЮАНЯ

КНР и Соединенные Штаты достигли соглашения по вектору реформ китайской политики по валютному курсу, но не могут договориться насчет темпов, – сообщил зам. Министра финансов Китая Чжу Гуаньчжао. «Следует отметить, что достигнуто согласие по вопросу курса реформ валютной политики КНР, вместе с тем, остаются определенные разногласия», – говорится в интервью китайского чиновника, принимающего участие в работе ежегодного Американо-Китайского Экономико-Стратегического Диалога, проходящего в эти дни в Вашингтоне.
«Китайская сторона уверена, что ключевой позицией внедрения валютной реформы является создание механизма и обеспечение эластичности обменного курсу юаня, тогда как США стремится к постоянному росту стоимости китайской нац. валюты».
Ранее Министр финансов США Тимоти Гайтнер заявлял о повышении курса юаня в прошлом году, но Вашингтон надеется, что в Пекине позволят более стремительные темпы роста, кроме того укрепление юаня распространится и на другие валютные пары.

China disagrees with U.S. on yuan reform pace RTR, 05/10 03:48PM

WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) — China and the United States agree on the direction of Chinese exchange rate policy reforms, but not the pace, Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said on Tuesday. «It should be said that China and the United States agree on the direction of reforming the renminbi exchange rate, but there is indeed also disagreement,» he told reporters following the annual U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Washington. The renminbi is also known as the yuan. «China believes that the key to reform is promoting reform of the renminbi exchange rate formation mechanism and enhancing elasticity of the renminbi exchange rate. But the U.S. believes that the renminbi should constantly appreciate.» U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner earlier said China had allowed the yuan to appreciate over the past year but that Washington hoped Beijing would let it rise more rapidly and against a broader range of trading partners' currencies.

(Reporting by Chris Buckley and Andrew Quinn; Editing by James Dalgleish)


РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ

Правительственные органы США, ответственные за контроль над банковской системой, будут более пристально отслеживать взаимоотношения коммерческих банков и розничных клиентов, покупающих валюту для участия в торговых сделках валютного рынка, – говориться в законопроекте. Согласно планам Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, от банков потребуют ввести для таких клиентов маржу в размере 2% для основных валют, как например, евро и доллар США, и 5% от номинальной суммы сделки для прочих валют. Кроме того, банкам придется вести более развернутый учет таких сделок и предоставлять своим клиентам больше информации, как то, комиссионные, взимаемые банком. Вместе с тем, новые правила не коснутся крупных компаний, работающих на рынке свопов или деривативных инструментов, также эти новшества имеют своей целью защитить не особо искушенных индивидуальных инвесторов.

Это предложение аналогично правилам Commodity Futures Trade Commission, опубликованным в сентябре прошлого года – принятые с целью пресечения мошенничества при розничных валютных сделках в банках.

WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) — U.S. bank regulators would more strictly supervise banks' relationships with retail customers who speculate in the foreign exchange market, under a proposal issued on Tuesday. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp plan would require retail customers who engage in foreign exchange transactions with a bank, that are not cleared through an exchange, to post a margin amount of 2 percent in the case of major currencies, such as the dollar and euro. The amount would rise to 5 percent of the notional value of the transaction for some other currencies. Banks also would have to keep more transaction records and give customers more information on things such as the fees they are being charged. The rule does not affect large companies involved in the derivatives and swaps markets and is instead aimed at protecting less-sophisticated individual investors.

The proposal is similar to a final rule published in September by the Commodity Futures Trade Commission in response what it said was retail fraud in the currency trading area. It is also similar to a proposal released last month by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The board of the FDIC voted to put the proposal out for 30 days of public comment. The FDIC only has a small part in policing this market. It said only one of the banks it regulates is involved in the retail foreign exchange business. It did not identify the bank. The rule is required by last year's Dodd-Frank financial oversight law. «It's really focused on the speculative activity that provides higher risk and for which additional consumer protections would seem justified,» said FDIC Vice Chairman Martin Gruenberg said.

Citigroup is among the largest banks that offer foreign exchange trading services to retail customers. Retail customers are often individuals trying to make money by speculating on currency fluctuations. The requirements will limit how much they can borrow when making bets. Under the rule, a retail customer is defined as someone who has less than $10 million in assets. In January, The CFTC sued 14 firms that it alleged illegally solicited investors to participate in foreign currency transactions. In all but two of the complaints, the CFTC alleged that defendants acted as retail foreign exchange dealer, offering to or taking the opposite side of a customer's forex transaction without being registered.


В Дойче Банке ждут $ 2000 по золоту через 8 месяцев

Такого мнения придерживается управляющий директор отдела торговли сырьевыми товарами Дойче Банка, господин Hal Lehr.По его замыслу к январю 2012 года котировки золота достигнут до 2000 долларов за унцию, так как инвесторы в любом случае будут искать защиту от экономической неопределенности в рынке золота.

May 10 (Bloomberg) — Gold, which reached a record on May 2, may surge a further 30 percent by January as investors seek to protect themselves from “economic uncertainty,” according to Deutsche Bank AG. “I’m bullish on gold despite its current levels,” Hal Lehr, Deutsche Bank’s managing director for cross-commodity trading, said in an interview in Buenos Aires. “It could reach $2,000 an ounce in the next eight months.”

Подробнее здесь: noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a143FuNQkTVA

БАНК GOLDMAN SACHS ВИДИМО ЗАКРЫВАЕТ "ШОРТЫ" ПО ДОЛГОВЫМ БУМАГАМ КАЗНАЧЕЙСТВА США.В 1 КВАРТАЛЕ БАНК УВЕЛИЧИЛ СВОЙ ПОРТФЕЛЬ

Goldman Sachs dramatically increased its exposure to debt issued by the US government and government-sponsored agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the first quarter of this year, apparently bucking the trend of some of the biggest bond traders to short US Treasuries. At the end of the first quarter of this year, Goldman owned just over $100 million of US government and federal agency debt, according to it's latest quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. That's a $15 million increase over the fourth quarter of 2010 and a $21 million increase over its holdings during the fourth quarter of last year. For a firm like Goldman, an extra $15 million or $20 million might not seem like much. But building the portfolio of US government debt while many investors, such as Bill Gross's PIMCO, are reducing their exposure definitely shows Goldman swimming against the stream.


Подробнее здесь: www.cnbc.com/id/42972870

Высокий уровень безработицы основная причина слабости рынка жилья.Исследование ФРБ Сан-Франциско

WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) — Studies by regional Federal Reserve banks show job scarcity is a major hindrance to the recovery of the depressed U.S. housing market, a top Fed official said on Tuesday. Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke said regional Fed banks have begun collecting data from surveys in a more systematic way. Officials at the central bank hope the results will play a greater role in making decisions about monetary policy, she said. «The lack of jobs was the dominant theme in the first year of data collection, with the majority of respondents identifying unemployment as the primary cause of new distress in the housing sector,» Duke said. The Fed governor cited one participant in a San Francisco Fed survey, who said prolonged unemployment and underemployment are causing a surge in the number of low-and moderate-income individuals and communities. «Unemployment is now the driving force behind most of the other crises we are facing.» the respondent told the Fed.

However, Duke said conditions for small businesses, who make up the bulk of U.S. hiring, are improving. «The combination of a variety of recent survey results paints a picture of increasing optimism about future sales and business conditions and a corresponding easing of credit availability for small businesses,» Duke said in a speech in St. Louis on community development. A copy of her speech was made available in Washington. Fed officials are wrestling with when to remove their extensive support for the economy as the recovery gains speed. While some policy-makers are worried that the central bank could fail to keep inflation in check if it delays tightening financial conditions, the Fed has said it is in no hurry to raise interest rates or sell bonds while unemployment is high. U.S. companies created jobs at the fastest pace in five years in April, pointing to underlying strength in the economy, although the jobless rate — which is derived from a separate survey rose — to 9.0 percent on a modest rise in the size of the labor force.


Дефицит бюджета Греции в январе-апреле был исполнен с дефицитом в 7.23 миллиарда евро.На 14% выше прошлогоднего уровня

ATHENS, May 10 (Reuters) — Greece's central government deficit widened about 14 percent year-on-year between Jan and April, missing an interim target, the finance ministry said on Tuesday. The budget gap widened to 7.23 billion euros from 6.37 billion euros, according to finance ministry figures. This is wider than a 6.92 billion euro deficit target for the first four months of the year. The data refers to the state budget deficit, which excludes local authorities and social security spending and does not coincide with the general government shortfall, the benchmark for the EU's assessment of Greece's economic policy programme.

ИСТОЧНИКИ В ПРАВЯЩЕЙ КОАЛИЦИИ ГЕРМАНИИ СООБЩАЮТ:РАССМАТРИВАЕТСЯ ВОПРОС О "ПЕРЕПРОФИЛИРОВАНИИ" ЗАЙМОВ ДЛЯ ГРЕЦИИ

BERLIN, May 10 (Reuters) — A source in Germany's ruling coalition said on Tuesday that European Union finance ministers were talking about «reprofiling» Greece's bailout loans, with the voluntary inclusion of private investors. «They are discussing reprofiling the rescue loans and the possibility of involving the private sector on a voluntary basis,» said the source, who asked not to be identified.

АНАЛИТИК АГЕНТСТВА S&P ГОСПОДИН КРАМЕР ГОВОРИТ:РИСКИ РЕСТРУКТУРИЗАЦИИ ДОЛГОВ ГРЕЦИИ РАСТУТ

При этом Крамер в своем интервью Bloomberg Television заявил: «Мы не говорим, хорошо это или плохо… Мы просто констатируем, что это может произойти». Он также обратил внимание на то, что Греция не сможет вернуться на долговой рынок в следующем году, а МВФ, ЕЦБ и ЕС «судя по всему обсуждают все возможные варианты включая реструктуризацию».

May 10 (Bloomberg) — Moritz Kraemer, head of Standard & Poor’s European debt evaluation team, said there’s an increasing risk that Greece will be forced to restructure its debt. “We’re not saying it’s good or bad,” Kraemer told Bloomberg Television in an interview from Frankfurt today. “We’re just stating what we think is likely to happen.” He also said that Greece may not be able to return to markets next year and that the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Union are “likely” discussing “options” including a restructuring in Athens.

КАНЦЛЕР ГЕРМАНИИ МЕРКЕЛЬ ГОВОРИТ:РЕШАТЬ ВОПРОС ГРЕЦИИ БУДЕМ ПО ИТОГАМ ИНСПЕКЦИИ МВФ И ЕВРОКОМИССИИ.ГЕРМАНИЯ БУДЕТ ОБЕРЕГАТЬ ЕВРО

BERLIN, May 10 (Reuters) — German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Tuesday she needed to see the findings of the current mission to Athens by the EU and IMF to check its progress on reforms before deciding on easing bailout terms for Greece. «I need to analyse the findings of the European Central Bank, European Commission and International Monetary Fund first and I can't comment before that,» she told correspondents in Berlin. «Anything else would not help Greece or Europe.»


ИСТОЧНИКИ В МВФ И ЕВРОКОМИССИИ СООБЩАЮТ:ВО ВРЕМЯ ИНСПЕКЦИИ ГРЕЦИИ НЕ БУДЕТ ОБСУЖДАТЬСЯ ВОПРОС О ПРЕДОСТАВЛЕНИИ НОВОГО ТРАНША ПОМОЩИ

Как сообщил источник, близкий к представителям стран-кредиторов в составе миссии ЕС/МВФ в Афинах, инспекторы изучают положение дел финансовой системы Греции, но ни о какой программе дополнительной помощи никакие переговоры не ведутся. Это сообщение опровергает ранее опубликованную информацию об ожидании греческого правительства нового пакета экстренной помощи в размере 60 млрд. евро. Официальные Афины также опровергли эту информацию. По мнению некоторых политиков, причиной такой дезинформации могли послужить высказывания Председателя Еврогруппы Ж.-К. Юнкера насчет возможности программ помощи в дальнейшем. В настоящий момент инспекторы заняты изучением финансовой и бюджетной документации еще с прошлой недели. Руководство миссии намерено начать обсуждение на более высоком уровне на следующей неделе.

ATHENS, May 10 (Reuters) — EU and IMF inspectors in Athens to examine Greece's fiscal progress are not discussing any new aid programme, officials close to the country's international lenders told Reuters on Tuesday. Dow Jones reported earlier on Tuesday that Athens expected as early as June a new aid package of nearly 60 billion euros ($85.71 billion) to deal with its debt crisis. Greece denied the report. «We had no discussions on this and certainly not on figures,» one official with knowledge of the inspection visit said. «As you know, (Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude) Juncker mentioned the possibility of a further programme but all options are still open.» EU and IMF officials started combing through Greece's books and fiscal plans last week as part of a regular quarterly visit. Mission chiefs are expected to start talks at a more senior level on Wednesday, for about a week.

ПРЕДСТАВИТЕЛЬ ПРАВЯЩЕЙ КОАЛИЦИИ ГЕРМАНИИ ИЗ ПАРТИИ CSU УТВЕРЖДАЕТ,ЧТО ГРЕЦИЯ НЕ СООТВЕТСТВУЕТ ПАРАМЕТРАМ ДЛЯ ПОЛУЧЕНИЯ НОВОГО ТРАНША ПОМОЩИ

Об этом завила представитель партии Christian Social Union госпожа Gerda Hasselfeldt.По ее словам, Греция явно не соответствует параметрам согласно которым стране можно было бы выдать новый транш помощи.По мнению депутата, неясно, что стало причиной несоответствия требованиям: действия самой Греции или заведомо нереалистичные ожидания ЕС. Так или иначе, пока греки не обеспечат эти условия, о предоставлении следующего транша помощи не может быть и речи. В свете этого, выводы совместной миссии ЕС/МВФ, работающей в настоящее время в Афинах, имеют исключительную важность.

МBERLIN, May 10 (Reuters) — There are signs that conditions for the payment of the next tranche of Greek aid in late May may not be met, a senior conservative German lawmaker said on Tuesday. The lawmaker said it was not clear whether this was due to Greek actions or unrealistic assumptions. Gerda Hasselfeldt, who chairs the group of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Bavaria's sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) in parliament, added no payment could be made unless Greece met the criteria.

GERMAN SENIOR MP HASSELFELDT SAYS IT IS CLEAR NO FUNDS WILL BE PAID UNLESS GREECE MEETS CRITERIA

GERMAN SENIOR MP HASSELFELDT SAYS IT IS THEREFORE IMPORTANT THAT EU/IMF MISSION BRINGS CLARITY BY END OF WEEK

GERMAN SENIOR MP HASSELFELDT SAYS NOT CLEAR IF THIS IS DUE TO GREEK ACTIONS OR UNREALISTIC ASSUMPTIONS

GERMAN SENIOR CSU MP SAYS THERE ARE SIGNS THAT CONDITIONS FOR PAYMENT OF NEXT GREEK AID TRANCHE MAY NOT BE MET


Главный экономист UBS Investment Bank призывает лидеров Евросюза,как можно скорее приступить к реструктуризации долгов Греции

Об этом господин George Magnus (главный экономист UBS Investment Bank) заявил в интервью Bloomberg Television.По его мнению, чем быстрее Евросоюз согласится на реструктуризацию, тем легче будет избежать драматичных последствий.По мнению экономиста, давно пора подвести черту под неэффективной политикой помощи, тем более на фоне таких сигналов, как субботняя экстренная встреча в Люксембурге, неожиданные отрицательные прогнозы по суверенному кредитному рейтингу, не говоря уже об увеличении доходности в два раза по сравнению с прошлым годом, когда Греция впервые получила международную экстренную помощь. «Проблема в том, что, чем сложнее становится ситуация, тем больше шансов распространения отрицательных последствий на другие страны, в первую рчередь, Испанию». Поэтому, по меньшей мере, безответственно не признать факт неплатежеспособности и не иметь плана действий на случай, если финансовые реформы в Греции зайдут в тупик.

БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ
БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ


May 10 (Bloomberg) — George Magnus, senior economic adviser for UBS Investment Bank in London, said European Union leaders must restructure Greek debt without further delay. “The sooner it happens the better,” Magnus said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move” with Francine Lacqua.

“It is incumbent on Europe to basically draw a line somewhere, to say enough is enough, we’ve basically got to deal with this in a traditional debt-restructuring manner.” Greece’s credit rating was yesterday cut two levels to B from BB- by Standard & Poor’s, which said further reductions are possible as the risk of default rises. The country’s debt is rising a year after it received a 110 billion-euro ($158 billion) bailout, and euro-region officials said after an unscheduled May 6 meeting in Luxembourg that Greece needs “a further adjustment program.” “There’s no such thing as a painless restructuring, no question about it,” Magnus said.

“Not recognizing that obviously is a problem because the longer you leave it, the bigger the pain, the bigger the haircut becomes.” The yield on Greek 10-year bonds stood at 15.3 percent at 11:21 a.m. in Athens today, twice the level of a year ago when Greece accepted an international bailout, indicating investors are betting Greece won’t be able to return to markets as planned. “The problem is that the more intense the cycle gets the bigger the contagion effect can be on other peripherals and on other sovereigns, including Spain,” Magnus said. “It would certainly be very irresponsible not to basically have a plan to basically recognize the problem with insolvency and what happens if the reform process in Greece really gets stuck.”


В ДОЙЧЕ БАНКЕ ПОЛАГАЮТ,ЧТО ВЫХОД ГРЕЦИИ ИЗ ЕВРОЗОНЫ БЫЛ БЫ НЕЖЕЛАТЕЛЬНЫМ ДЛЯ ГЕРМАНИИ

Председатель Наблюдательного Совета Deutsche Bank AG Клеменс Бьорзиг заявляет, что выход Греции из еврозоны и ЕС не в интересах Европы вообще и Германии в частности. «Проект Евросоюза и единого валютного пространства не предусматривает выхода кого-либо из членов, в том числе и Греции». Помимо этого он считает, что реструктуризация задолженности Греции будет иметь «разрушительные последствия».

May 10 (Bloomberg) — Deutsche Bank AG supervisory board Chairman Clemens Boersig said a Greek exit from the euro and European Union is not in the interest of Germany or Europe. “The European project doesn’t allow for the exit of Greece,” Boersig said at an event in Frankfurt today. He also warned that a restructuring of Greek debt would have “severe consequences,” he said.

ИСТОЧНИКИ В ЕВРОКОМИССИИ ТОЖЕ ОПРОВЕРГАЮТ НОВОСТИ О НОВОМ ПАКЕТЕ ПОМОЩИ.

BRUSSELS, May 10 (Reuters) — There is no clarity at this stage on what extra assistance Greece may need under any new bailout programme and even whether it is possible to provide one, a senior euro zone source said on Tuesday. Dow Jones on Tuesday quoted a Greek official as saying Athens was set to receive up to 60 billion euros more from the EU, possibly as soon as next month, to tide it over its debt financing next year. The Greek finance officials denied it. «There is no formal negotiation between Greece and the European authorities on any new package,» the senior euro zone source told Reuters. «Ministers will take a first look at the situation next Monday when they'll get the conclusions of the EU/IMF mission which is in Athens right now.» He said there were at least three questions hanging over any new package: first, that there is clarity on the need, second that a level playingfield is maintained with Portugal and Ireland, who also have EU bailout packages, and third the fact that several euro zone member states are staunchly opposed. «The current press reports have no consistency. Any figure being circulated in the press right now is totally wrong and no figure is currently being considered,» the source said.

Представитель ЕЦБ Тумпель-Гугурель: Поздний отказ от мягкой денежно-кредитной политики чреват рисками

По мнению это представителя Правления фин. регулятора объединенной Европы, слишком длительная монетарная стимуляция и задержки с началом ужесточения могут оказать обратный эффект на цены рыночных активов в глобальных масштабах. «Оттягивание выхода из либеральной монетарной политики после периода рецессии несет чрезмерный риск притока капиталов в больших масштабах», – сказала Тумпель-Гугурель, выступая в Цюрихе. «Поэтому, принятое странами «Большой Двадцатки» решение о сокращении собственных дефицитов на половину к 2013 году крайне важно».

Эти комментарии последовали в скорости после «сырьевого обвала» в конце прошлой недели и «голубиной» риторики Председателя Правления ЕЦБ Ж.-К. Трише в свете последнего заседания Ецвроцентробанка по ставке. В своей речи Тумпель-Гугурель прямо не указывала на страны, которых коснулись её слова, однако большинство экспертов склоны считать, что это напрямую относится к США, поскольку американский фин. регулятор, несмотря ни на что, продолжает крайне либеральную политику монетарного стимулирования при чрезмерно низкой учетной ставке, более известную, под названием «QE2».

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--There are risks to a late exit from loose monetary policy and stimulative fiscal policy as these can lead to excessive risk taking and adverse effects on global asset prices, European Central Bank Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell said Tuesday. «A delayed exit from accommodative monetary policy after a recessionary period may contribute to excessive risk taking and large international capital flows,» she said in a speech in Zurich. She reminded that the ECB raised rates by 25 basis points in April, its first rate rise in nearly three years and its first rate move in nearly two years. «Exiting too late from stimulative fiscal policy may run the risk of triggering an adverse adjustment in global asset prices and global exchange rate configurations,» she said. She said the commitment taken by G20 countries to slash their deficit in half by 2013 is of the «utmost importance.» Her comments come shortly after commodity prices tumbled Thursday after a dovish interpretation of ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's remarks following the ECB's rate-setting meeting. Trichet directly cited comments from leading U.S. policy makers supporting a strong dollar. Experts saw this as a key reason for dollar gains and a commodity selloff on Thursday. Tumpel-Gugerell didn't mention any country by name in her speech, but her remarks could be seen as a reference to the U.S., whose central bank continues to pump money into the economy via the second incarnation of its «quantitative easing» program, known as QE2. Critics argue that this loose policy artificially keeps the dollar undervalued, thus supporting American exports, at the expense of other countries. Loose monetary policy also encourages the importing of inflation, which results in the real value of American debt falling. Low interest rates in the U.S. have also been cited as a reason for large inward capital flows into developing or resource-rich economies with higher interest rates. These currencies have risen, sometimes to the chagrin of domestic policy makers. China, of course, has also been accused of keeping its currency artificially low, thus benefiting its exports. The euro zone also must strengthen its fiscal discipline, the central banker said. Focusing too much on domestic policy while not addressing its impact on the broader global economy could worsen global economic and fiscal imbalances, she said. Tumpel-Gugerell cited the euro zone as an example of an area that has suffered from a lack of policy discipline. She said that fiscal indiscipline in some members of the 17-country currency zone has had «widespread» implications for financial markets. «It is clear that there is a need to strengthen fiscal discipline significantly,» she said. The central banker also urged more surveillance across countries of domestic policies to ensure that these are geared toward medium-term stability and sustainability. The multilateral surveillance framework, as it exists today, is likely not enough when it comes to disciplining mechanisms, she said. A mechanism is needed to allow members of the International Monetary Fund to look beyond policy goals in the short term and «internalize» their impact on the global system. «What is needed more than ever, is a mechanism to ensure that the concept of external stability becomes a cornerstone of multilateral surveillance,» she said. This would mean taking into consideration whether a country's exchange rate and its monetary, fiscal and financial sector policies are «destabilizing» other countries or regions. «This would be a considerable strengthening of international cooperation to achieve our common goal of economic and financial stability,» she said. Tumpel-Gugerell, an Austrian national, is in her final weeks on the Executive Board, nearing the end of an eight-year term. She is at present the only woman on both the six-person Board and the 23-person Governing Council. She will be replaced on June 1 by Belgium's Peter Praet.

ПРЕДСТАВИТЕЛЬ ГРЕЧЕСКИХ ВЛАСТЕЙ: ВОЗМОЖНО ЗАКЛЮЧЕНИЕ НОВОГО ДОГОВОРА С ГРЕЦИЕЙ В ИЮНЕ

ATHENS (Dow Jones)--Greece now expects a new package of nearly EUR60 billion in financial aid covering financial needs stretching into 2013 as early as next month, said a senior Greek government official. The official, with knowledge of the talks, said the issue of extending current packages, or arranging new loans, will be discussed at a regularly-scheduled meeting of European Union finance ministers next Monday and Tuesday. The new package would be designed to cover Greece's projected need for around EUR27 billion in new assistance next year and another EUR32 billion in 2013. At an early round of talks in Luxembourg late Friday, senior EU officials discussed the possible construction of this new aid, but no decisions were taken. Final decisions won't be set until after the results of the June audit of Greece's ability to sustain its debt, the Greek official said. Among the options discussed is extending Greece's current maturities and giving Greece access to the EU's government bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility. A new memorandum of understanding may set state-owned properties as collateral. «I expect a new set of measures for Greece which will have a strict timeframe and guarantees that it will be seen through,» the senior Greek government official said. This official said that Germany will find it difficult to convince its taxpayers to give more money to Greece after contributing to a EUR110 billion package sealed by the EU and the International Monetary Fund only a year ago. The German government prefers an extension of bond maturing in 2012 and 2013, but it might consider a combination with access to EFSF funds. «These matters were generally discussed in Luxembourg but no decisions were taken,» the Greek official said.

СТАВКА ДОХОДНОСТИ ПО 12 МЕСЯЧНЫМ ВЕКСЕЛЯМ США УПАЛА ДО НОВОГО РЕКОРДА

БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ
БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ


Уверенность потребителей в Швейцарии снизилась в апреле до минус 1 пункта

БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ
БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ
БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: РЕГУЛЯТОРЫ В США ПЛАНИРУЮТ ВВЕСТИ НОВЫЕ ПРАВИЛА ДЛЯ РОЗНИЧНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ ВАЛЮТОЙ ДЛЯ КЛИЕНТОВ БАНКОВ


НАРОДНЫЙ БАНК КИТАЯ НЕ СТАНЕТ СМЯГЧАТЬ МОНЕТАРНУЮ ПОЛИТИКУ,ПОКА ИНФЛЯЦИЯ НЕ СНИЗИТСЯ

Об этом пишет китайское издание «China Business News» цитируя одного чиновника из PBOC.Якобы до тех пор, пока инфляция не будет падать три месяца подряд или перестанут расти цены на жилье, ЦБ Китая не станет отказываться от политики ужесточения денежно-кредитной политики.

BEIJING, May 10 (Reuters) — China will not stop monetary tightening unless it sees three consecutive monthly declines or stability in consumer inflation or housing prices, a central bank official said in remarks published on Tuesday. The People's Bank of China will keep increasing interest rates and banks' reserve requirement ratio despite rising financing difficulties for companies, especially small ones, the official said. The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release key economic indicators, including the consumer price index, on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters expected inflation to ease to 5.2 percent in the year to April, from 5.4 percent in March. The readings for January and February were both 4.9 percent.

The China Business News also cited the unnamed official at the central bank's Shanghai headquarter as saying that new loans in the first four months of this year were about 10 percent less than the amount in the same period of last year, which showed the effectiveness of China's tightening policy. The central bank has yet to announce April new loan data this week. Chinese banks lent 2.2 trillion yuan in new local-currency loans in the first quarter and 3.4 trillion yuan in the first four months of 2010. The median forecast of economists polled by Reuters was for new loans of 700 billion yuan in April, up from 679 billion yuan in March.

While noting funding challenges facing many businesses in Shanghai, especially those median- and small-sized enterprises, due to the credit quota control and rising interest rates, the official said China's current monetary policy would continue and companies would find their way out. He added that it was the cost a country must pay to see some of its companies stop their operations during each economic cycle, which is a normal phenomenon.


КИТАЙ ДОЛЖЕН СОКРАЩАТЬ СВОИ ВАЛЮТНЫЕ РЕЗЕРВЫ.ГОВОРЯТ В КИТАЙСКОМ ГОСБАНКЕ.

BEIJING, May 10 (Reuters) — China's needs only between $800 billion and $1.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and it should consider channelling some of its huge stockpile into domestic companies and strategic resources, a top Chinese banker said on Tuesday. The rapid build-up in reserves, which hit a record of $3.05 trillion by the end of March, has been «a big problem» for the economy, Tang Shuangning, Chairman of China Everbright Bank, said in an article published in the official Financial News. The reserves, already the world's largest, have become excessive, Tang said, saying it only needed enough to service foreign debt, pay for imports and accommodate earnings repatriated by foreign firms operating in China. Analysts say the rise in China's reserves, which are now nearly triple Japan's holdings, the world's second-biggest reserve holder, have fuelled inflationary risks in the country.

Separately, Guo Tianyong, an economist at Central University of Finance and Economics, told the Financial News that the government should use part of the rapidly accumulating reserves to buy gold and help build the country's strategic oil reserves. China could suffer large losses if its abruptly shifted its reserves held in dollar assets into other currencies, Guo said. Chinese officials have said they would like to diversify the country's huge reserves from U.S. dollar assets, which account for around two thirds of its holdings, but such diversification process would have to be done gradually.

ЧЛЕН ЕЦБ NOWOTNY ГОВОРИТ:РЕСТРУКТУРИЗАЦИЯ ДЛЯ ГРЕЦИИ НЕЖЕЛАТЕЛЬНА.ВСТРЕЧА В ЛЮКСЕМБУРГЕ БЫЛА НЕУДАЧНАЯ

Об этом член ЕЦБ господин Ewald Nowotny сообщил в интервью австрийскому радио ORF.По мнению господина Nowotny реструктуризация долгов Греции должна быть снята с повестки дня, хотя ситуация для Греции ухудшилась.Ожидания, что страна сможет выйти на рынок открытого капитала в 2012 году не оправдались.Кроме того, по мнению Nowotny недавняя встреча в Люксембурге между министрами финансов Евросоюза была неудачной.

May 10 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said that Greece may get an extension by when it has to repay funds from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, Austrian state broadcaster ORF reported. “It was expected that Greece would be able to refinance itself via the market next year and there now are strong indications that won’t happen,” Nowotny said in a radio interview with ORF. European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said he considers the “improvised” meeting of finance ministers of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain in Luxembourg on May 6 “very unfortunate,” according to an interview with Austrian state broadcaster ORF.

VIENNA, May 10 (Reuters) — It is primarily up to Greece to get its financial house in order and restructuring of the euro zone country's debt must avoided, European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny told Austrian radio. Asked in an interview on Tuesday whether Greece would get fresh loans, Nowotny said: «The first step has to be on Greece's side. Only when we have a clear view here can we consider whether the existing programme must be rounded out, but that is something one can judge only in the weeks ahead.» «It does not have to be fresh loans. It could also be a question of the time horizon of how long one has to repay,» he added, noting Greece next year had to repay 25 billion to 30 billion euros. «It was assumed that this could be financed on the markets next year.

Now there are strong indications that this cannot happen in this form. The question now is how to solve this problem.» Asked if cutting Greece's sovereign debt was an option, he reiterated his opposition to such a restructuring. «This is something that is ruled out by the EU, the ECB and also in the interests of Greece,» he said. «You have to be aware that this would immediately have massive consequences for the Greek banking system and for the banking system overall. That would only heighten the crisis.» Nowotny said international aid to Greece was correctly conceived but officials had underestimated the depths of the problems and structural shortcomings such as tax collection, which meant the aid programme may not be wrapped up on time. «We will probably need more time,» he said.

Nowotny said a meeting of top officials from euro zone countries on May 16 was the proper venue to address the issue and criticised a meeting by a selected group of countries last Friday whose existence leaked out. «This (May 16) meeting and this group is the one that really decides such things. I think the improvised meeting of last Friday was unfortunate. It had only negative effects. It is important to return to orderly, serious negotiations.»

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