ОБЗОР :: Дэвид Стокман считает, что технический дефолт США неизбежен

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Дэвид Стокман, являвшийся директором по бюджету в администрации президента Рейгана, дает интервью Блумбергу. Он считает, что ни одно из серьезных противоречий между демократами и республиканцами о том, как заткнуть дыру в бюджете в 1,5 трлн. долларов, решить не удастся. Это не переговоры, а один свист... Дэвид Стокман, являвшийся директором по бюджету в администрации президента Рейгана, дает интервью Блумбергу. Он считает, что ни одно из серьезных противоречий между демократами и республиканцами о том, как заткнуть дыру в бюджете в 1,5 трлн. долларов, решить не удастся. Это не переговоры, а один свист...

На вопрос, будет ли кризис, подобный 11 сентября, он отвечает: Да, будет. Это будет мощная распродажа на рынке облигаций. Она произойдет гораздо быстрее, чем многие себе представляют. И может быть это будет сигналом к пробуждению.

Проблема не в потолке госдолга. Проблема в политике двух партий, которая ведет к одному исходу – дефолту.

ZH дает нам полный текст интервью. Весь текст очень важен и заслуживает перевода ( но у меня такой возможности к сожалению нет).

On the debt ceiling negotiations in Washington D.C.:

"Between now and November 2012, it is virtually certain [Congress] can't pass a large, permanent increase in the debt ceiling. We'll have periodic short-term fixes, a month, two months, and then they'll back to squabbling and this enormous political battle we're having over the major components of the budget: revenues, Social Security, Medicare and so forth. It will be back to the same old gong show.”

"I don't have any hope they'll come to a substantive agreement on the big things that need to be done because both parties have ruled off the table the essential things that are necessary.”

“We have to raise revenue, there is no doubt about that. We have to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire for everybody, not just the rich. We have to reset Social Security if we're doing to make any headway in denting this massive, $6 billion a day borrowing spree we're on... Neither [political] party is facing up to the real truth or telling the public."

On broadening the tax base through VAT taxes or taxes for Wall Street:

"At the moment it is very unlikely [that any of these taxes will be implemented], but that is simply a measure of how unrealistic the debate is down in Washington today."

"If they were realistic, they would be discussing what are the new revenue sources we can possibly tap in order to fill this gigantic $1.5 trillion hole in the budget. What are the pros and cons, what are the tradeoffs? You hear none of that discussion. They're whistling past the grave. They should be talking about new sources of revenue and possibly increasing some of the existing taxes we have in place today."

On when Washington will get to the point of discussing raising taxes:

"I think [Washington will discuss raising taxes] only when we get a major, thundering conflagration in the bond market."

"For the last 10 years, Congress has been lulled to sleep by the central banks that keep buying all the debt and therefore holding down the real cost of interest on the middle and long term debt that we are issuing every day.

"And frankly, bond fund managers who somehow think that the tooth fairy is going to arrive and fix this problem, when it's clear that is not going to happen, and that we have sovereign risk on the debt of the United States, just as clearly as the world is now discovering there are sovereign risks in the European debt issues and so forth."

On whether there will be a 9/11-style crisis in the economy:

"That kind of crisis would be a vicious sell-off in the global bond market. That could come sooner than people think, because the Fed is getting out of the market with QE2 ending.”

"For the last six months, the Fed has bought nearly 100% of this $6 billion a day that's been issued. Once they are out of the market, where is the new bid, where is the new demand going to come from? The Chinese are getting out of the market because finally they are having to deal with the rip-roaring inflation they have had. The people's printing press of China will not be buying as much U.S. debt because of its own internal problems.”

"When we get to real investors, what are some of the real investors saying today? PIMCO is short the bond, they're selling, they're not buying.

"When we get into a two-way market when real investors began to look at real risk, begin to look at the gong show in Washington and the magnitude of the gap that we are borrowing, I think we're going to get a re-rating of sovereign risk. We're going to get a huge dislocation in the global bond market, and then maybe the wake-up call will finally come."

On political problems in solving the debt problem:

"The problem is not the debt ceiling. When push comes to shove, at the 11th-hour, they will do it for a couple of weeks or months and we will have a little more borrowing headroom and will be back to the same impasse where we are now."

"The real problem is the de facto policy of both parties is default. When the Republicans say no tax increases, they're saying we want the U.S. government to default. Because there isn't enough political will in this country to solve the problem even halfway on spending cuts.

When the Democrats say you can't touch Social Security, when you have Obama sponsoring a war budget for defense that is even bigger than Bush, then I say the policy of the White House is default as well."

"That is the question that really needs to be understood better and appraised by the bond market. Both parties are advocating default even as they point the finger at each other."


Неделю назад Стокман давал другое интервью. Отрывок из него:

On the issues with the current market:

"We have not had a two-way bond market. We have had a rigged market that has been dominated by not just the Fed, but all the central banks. Today over half of the $9 trillion in publicly-held debt is in central bank vaults. I call it the 'Monetary Roach Hotel.' Bonds go in and never come out. If the central banks stopped buying the debt, which will happen with the end of QE2, then we're going to get back into a real investor's market, a two-way market where some people don't believe that Congress and the White House have the capacity to deal with our problems. I think then we run the risk that we'll get real pricing on the debt, which has to be a lot more than 3%."

On how the debt ceiling debate will be resolved:

"I do not know that there's any process that can solve it. We're so far down the road here that I think it will take a thundering conflagration in the global bond market to wake up the process and get people out of their positions...Look at the current White House. We had Geithner last night saying, you don't dare not raise the debt ceiling, but the policy of this administration is de facto default. They have a war budget as big as Bush ever had, therefore, extending 75% of the Bush tax cuts. The only thing they have objected to is the 2% risk."

On why we should care about the debt ceiling:

"I do not think we should care about the debt ceiling, because they will extend it when push comes to shove at the 11th hour after a lot of smoke and mirrors and tricks have been played...What we should care about is the fact that we're borrowing $6 billion every business day. Both parties have taken fiscal positions that will not even begin to close the gap. Both parties are simply aligned, deceiving the public that there will not be sacrifice. There will be. Tax increases across the board for the entire middle class, not just the rich."

Stockman on whether the tax base needs to be broadened:

"I think bring the tax base or have new tax revenue sources. We are in a stage where I think a tax on imported oil might be one way to get two birds with one stone. Revenue into the coffers of the Treasury and also some incentive for more conservation, domestic production, and alternative energy.

"Secondly, Wall Street needs to have a transaction tax. I know they won't like it. A tax on every trade, a small amount, would go a long way to putting money in the coffers."


Здесь важная мысль. Стокман говорит:

У нас нет двухстороннего рынка облигаций. У нас манипулируемый рынок, на котором доминируют помимо Феда все центральные банки. Сегодня свыше половины публичного долга находится в хранилищах центарльных банков. Я называю это: «Отель монетарных монстров». Облигации туда входят и никогда не выходят. Когда центральные банки прекратят покупать долг, а это случится с окончанием QE2, тогда мы возвратимся в рынок реального инвестора, в котором люди не верят в то, что конгресс и Белый Дом способны справиться с их проблемами. Тогда мы получим реальную оценку долга, которая будет значительно выше 3%.

Переговоры Байдена – последняя надежда заключить сделку по лимиту госдолга США

Распад на прошлой неделе «бригады шести», которая работала над заключением сделки по бюджету с начала года, был воспринят рынком как мрачный предвестник. Шансов на заключение сделки остается все меньше.

И вот на этой неделе к решению этой проблемы подключился вице-президент Байден, на которого возлагаются особые надежды, поскольку у него сформировались отношения со многими влиятельными парламентариями за 36 лет его работы в качестве сенатора.

Байден соберет сегодня вечером руководителей конгресса из обоих партий для третьей попытки нахождения компромисса по уменьшению дефицита госбюджета.

Могут ли участники переговоров по бюджету США найти общий язык?

Фактическая сторона переговоров

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

These steps were proposed in both Obama's budget and the House Republican budget, which was drafted by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan.

* CAP ANNUAL SPENDING. Limit the growth of discretionary programs, such as law enforcement, space exploration and the military, that Congress approves each year.

Savings: $580 billion to $1.589 trillion.

* REVISE PENSION INSURANCE. Allow the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation to set higher pension-insurance premiums for companies that are less financially sound.

Savings $5 billion to $10 billion.

* REDUCE FARM SUBSIDIES.

Savings: between $5 billion and $30 billion

* TORT REFORM to limit the amount of money that can be awarded in medical malpractice lawsuits.

Savings: up to $60 billion.

* SCALE BACK STUDENT-LOAN SUBSIDES, which would require graduate students to pay interest on their loans.

Savings: $20 billion to $65 billion.

* AUCTION ELECTROMAGNETIC SPECTRUM LICENSES, freeing up underused frequencies for mobile broadband Internet.

Savings: $25 billion.

* SELL EXCESS FEDERAL PROPERTY no longer needed by the government. Savings: $10 billion to $15 billion.

* REDUCE MEDICAL FRAUD AND OVERPAYMENTS. Savings: $10 billion to $50 billion.

Total savings: $655 billion to $1.84 trillion.

OTHER POSSIBLE SAVINGS:

REPEAL TAX BREAKS FOR BIG OIL COMPANIES. Republicans defeated this proposal in the Senate, but Democrats say they will push to include it in the deficit-reduction plan.

Savings: $32 billion.

SCALE BACK RETIREMENT BENEFITS FOR FEDERAL WORKERS. This measure was not included in Obama's budget proposal, but it's reportedly on the table in the Biden group's discussions. It could be a tough sell for many Democrats.

Savings: $65 billion to $120 billion.

CHANGE THE WAY INFLATION IS MEASURED. Doing so would have the effect of slowing the growth of benefit payments in Social Security and other benefit programs, but it would stir fierce opposition from powerful interest groups.

Savings: $255 billion.

Total savings: $352 billion to $407 billion.

STUMBLING BLOCKS

HEALTHCARE. The Ryan plan would partially privatize the Medicare health program for retirees and scale back the Medicaid health plan for the poor by giving states more control over how it was administered. It also would repeal the 2010 Affordable Care Act, Obama's signature health reform law.

Those moves would save $2.2 trillion, but Democrats are already campaigning against them as the 2012 election season gets underway.

Obama has proposed accelerating Medicare cost savings in the Affordable Care Act and would save Medicaid money by streamlining the formula for giving federal funds to states. He would also allow the government to use its purchasing power to negotiate lower costs on prescription drugs.

That measure would save $480 billion, though Republicans aren't likely to offer support because it would require keeping the divisive Affordable Care Act in place.

TAXES. The two parties differ sharply here as the Ryan plan would raise $1.8 trillion less in revenue than Obama's February budget.

The Ryan plan would lower the top individual tax rate from 35 percent to 25 percent, while Obama would boost it to 39.6 percent. The Affordable Care Act also raises taxes on dividends and capital gains for the wealthiest by 3.8 percent.

Lawmakers in both parties support reducing exemptions and loopholes, but Democrats say it should lead to an overall increase in revenue, while Republicans say the total tax burden should not rise.

Kyl said low-income Americans, who currently do not pay federal income taxes, should have to pay at least a nominal amount. Democrats are not likely to back that idea


Бум ETF продолжается

ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) – инвестиционные фонды, торгующие акциями, облигациями, фьючерсами, commodities на бирже.

Апрель месяц показал самый большой приток нового капитала в ETF: 22,2 млрд. долларов. От года к году приток в апреле составил 50,9 млрд. долларов

В настоящее время размер активов ETF составляет порядка 12,1% от размера активов взаимных фондов (8,5 трлн. долларов)

ОБЗОР :: Дэвид Стокман считает, что технический дефолт США неизбежен


В нижней части рисунка показан приток/отток активов в ETF за последние восемь месяцев по различным категориям фондов ( различающихся по типу торгуемых активов): США, развивающиеся рынки, облигации, сырье, иностранные активы, глобальные, доходы/дивиденды, шорт-фонды, специальные, валютные фонды

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