7 июля 2008 Black Swan Capital
If you bought the Australian dollar and simultaneously sold the Canadian dollar at the beginning of the year and you're still positioned like that then you're probably a pretty happy camper. That's because year-to-date AUDCAD (Australian dollar vs. Canadian dollar) has jumped 1,000 PIPs – or 11.4%. And in the world of forex, that's a huge move.
And having just tested its highest level in more than three years, we begin to wonder if this pair could be running out of gas. Buy-and-hold strategists will tell you the trend is your friend, so keep buying and holding. But we've got a different philosophy that keeps us asking: when is the trend not your friend? And when is the trend going to reverse and take you to the cleaners?
Right now may be one of those times... or it might not. But to us, the one-way climb and the underlying sentiment make this pair vulnerable to downside moves.
Much of our hesitation at these levels is because of our expectations for the US dollar. That's because the Canadian dollar (a commodity currency) has become less tied to other commodity currencies (e.g. Australian dollar) and somewhat more correlated to the US dollar.
Why? Mostly because Canada's economy is closely tied to the wallowing US economy. But maybe, just maybe, the dollar has found a bottom for a little while. If so, then maybe the Canadian dollar gets a little boost as well and outperforms fellow commodity currencies and the rest of the major currency pack during a period of dollar appreciation.
Taking the short side of AUDCAD is something to consider. Certainly a decent risk-reward set-up, we think.
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And having just tested its highest level in more than three years, we begin to wonder if this pair could be running out of gas. Buy-and-hold strategists will tell you the trend is your friend, so keep buying and holding. But we've got a different philosophy that keeps us asking: when is the trend not your friend? And when is the trend going to reverse and take you to the cleaners?
Right now may be one of those times... or it might not. But to us, the one-way climb and the underlying sentiment make this pair vulnerable to downside moves.
Much of our hesitation at these levels is because of our expectations for the US dollar. That's because the Canadian dollar (a commodity currency) has become less tied to other commodity currencies (e.g. Australian dollar) and somewhat more correlated to the US dollar.
Why? Mostly because Canada's economy is closely tied to the wallowing US economy. But maybe, just maybe, the dollar has found a bottom for a little while. If so, then maybe the Canadian dollar gets a little boost as well and outperforms fellow commodity currencies and the rest of the major currency pack during a period of dollar appreciation.
Taking the short side of AUDCAD is something to consider. Certainly a decent risk-reward set-up, we think.
/templates/new/dleimages/no_icon.gif (C) Источник
Не является индивидуальной инвестиционной рекомендацией
При копировании ссылка обязательна Нашли ошибку: выделить и нажать Ctrl+Enter