11 марта 2011 Bloomberg Бегларян Григорий
Последствия для рынка и экономики Японии после предыдущего землетрясения в Кобе, в 1995 году.
Причины землетрясения и цунами
РЫНОК НЕФТИ:БЛИЖНИЙ ВОСТОК,США,ВЛИЯНИЕ НА РЫНОК
Тут надо все по порядку.Началось с Египта.Значит посмотрим на географию, ведь там у них Суэцкий канал.
Потом посмотрим на Ливию и Саудовскую Аравию
Теперь о наибольшей зависимости от нефти по странам (те кто зависит от цены как производитель и как потребитель)
Влияние цен на нефть на мировые рынки
Американские стратегические резервы и география поставок нефти в США
У ИНДИИ ЕСТЬ ШАНСЫ ОБОЙТИ КИТАЙ
Экспортный рост в двух самых больших развивающихся экономических системах в мире показал расхождение. Согласно данным опубликованным Nomura, экспорт Индии двигается на большой скорости вперед, поднявшись почти к 40 процентам в феврале, в тоже время экспорт из Китая опустился к 20 процентам с 32.Экспорт Индии повышался возрастающим товарным экспортом (нефтепродукты, руда, сплавы и полезные ископаемые), трудоемким экспортом (драгоценные камни и драгоценности и предметы одежды) и экспортом с высокой добавленной стоимостью (технические товары), сообщают экономисты Nomura. Тем временем, экспорт Китая ослабел, частично это связывают с длинным празднованием Китайского Нового года.
Однако, дефицит «менее квалифицированного» труда и последующее ожидаемое повышения заработной платы — является структурным фактором, который может начать ограничивать трудоемкий экспорт из Китая. Временное падение в китайском экспорте вследствии сезонных искажений (праздник) выправится, но экспорт из Индии, вероятно, опередит Китайский, поскольку ценовое давление последнего растет. Экономисты Nomura считают, что у Индии есть все шансы обйти Китай в 2011 году.
БИЛЛ ГРОСС ГОВОРИТ, ЧТО НЕ БУДЕТ ПОКУПАТЬ 10-ЛЕТНИЕ ТРЕЖЕРИС, ПОКА ДОХОДНОСТЬ ПО НИМ НЕ ПРЕВЫСИТ 4%
Билл Гросс заявил в пятницу, что доходность по 10-летним казначейским облигациям должна быть не менее 4%, чтобы он возобновил их покупки. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-11/gross-starts-derivative-lite-version-of-pimco-total-return-as-rally-ends.html
ИЗВЕСТНЫЙ ИНВЕСТОР DENNIS GARTMAN ГОВОРИТ,ЧТО КУРС ЙЕНЫ БУДЕТ НА УРОВНЕ В 75
В своих аналитических заметках, которые называются«The Gartman Letter,» этот господин утвержадает, что курс йены в течение нескольких недель, дойдет до уровня в 75.
NEW YORK, March 11 (Reuters) — Prominent U.S. investor Dennis Gartman on Friday said the Japanese yen could strengthen to 75 against the U.S. dollar in a matter of days or weeks in the aftermath of Friday's massive earthquake.
Gartman, editor of «The Gartman Letter,» a widely followed investor newsletter, told Reuters the amount of money that will need to be repatriated to Japan in coming weeks is «enormous.»
The yen strengthened by 1 percent against the U.S. currency on Friday as investors anticipate a major prepatriation flow to pay for the damage caused by the 8.9 magnitude quake and subsequent tsunami. It last traded just above 82.
Индекс уверенности потребителей в США упал в марте до минимума за 5 месяцев.Индекс инфляционных ожиданий вырос
НОВОСТИ С САММИТА ЕВРОСОЮЗА:ГЕРМАНИЯ ПРИВЕТСТВУЕТ МЕРЫ ПРАВИТЕЛЬСТВА ПОРТУГАЛИИ
BRUSSELS, March 11 (Reuters) — There are positive signals that other troubled euro zone countries may also move after Portugal announced further spending cuts and reforms on Friday, a German government source said. Earlier, Portugal announced additional measures to cut its fiscal deficit in an attempt to stave off intense pressure to seek a bailout.
ГЛАВА ФРБ НЬЮ-ЙОРКА,ГОСПОДИН DUDLEY ГОВОРИТ:НЕТ ПРИЧИН БОЯТЬСЯ ИНФЛЯЦИИ.ВСЕ НОРМАЛЬНО
резидент Федерального Резервного Банка Нью-Йорка (ключевой банк в системе ФРС США) выступая сегодня на встрече с представителями американского бизнеса, заявил, что нынешний рост цен на сырье, возможно носит временный характер и необязательно должен трансформироваться в рост потребительских цен в стране.По его мнению, экономика США продолжает неплохо расти, но для ФРС не должно быть сомнений в том, что нельзя сворачивать свой курс и надо продолжать стимулирующие программы.
NEW YORK, March 11 (Reuters) — Some of the recent rise in commodity prices is likely to be temporary and is unlikely to feed through into a sustained rise in inflation, a top Federal Reserve official said on Friday. New York Fed President William Dudley, speaking to business leaders in Flushing, Queens in New York, repeated it was important the U.S. central bank does not overreact to rising energy prices.
«While rising commodity prices may be giving some of you a bad headache, they are not likely to lead to a sustained rise in inflation to levels inconsistent with our dual mandate,» Dudley told the Queens, New York chamber of commerce. The Fed's dual mandate is to ensure high employment and low and stable inflation in the United States — and Dudley stressed that the Fed was still far from achieving it. Dudley, who was a core advocate for the Fed's easy money policy, is seen as one of the more «dovish» members of the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
The committee meets next week and is not expected to alter its policy. Uprisings in the Middle East and Africa have contributed to the recent rise in energy prices and muddied the water somewhat for policymakers. Dudley noted that the situation in the Middle East and Africa remains «uncertain and „dynamic“. But, he said, U.S. consumers' expectations of future inflation are currently stable. He said a sustained rise in these expectations would be a threat to price stability that „would not be tolerated.“ „If that were to occur, that would be a troublesome development that would complicate the pursuit our dual mandate,“ he said. Dudley said he expects high unemployment to keep a lid on price pressures in the near term. Dudley said a number of indicators point to stronger economic growth in the coming months, and repeated that a stronger recovery is not a reason for the Fed to reverse course. He said faster progress to the Fed's dual mandate would be „very welcome“.
Член совета ЕЦБ,господин Бини Смаги, предлагает создать европейское агентство для выпуска долговых бумаг
March 11 (Bloomberg)17 стран еврозоны — это воспрепятствовать их дефолту или реструктуризации ими долговых обязательств за счет утверждения правил, которые имели бы существенный вес. «Однако как можно убедиться, что эти правила выполняются? Один из способов — предоставление полномочий по выпуску облигаций стран еврозоны наднациональной организации, — заявил он. — Страны не должны иметь возможность размещать гособлигации на рынке. Этот шаг может стать первым на пути к выпуску общеевропейских бондов». Главы стран еврозоны проведут в пятницу встречу в Брюсселе, где будет обсуждаться механизм помощи странам региона, имеющим наиболее высокие бюджетные дефициты. По словам Л.Бини Смаги, он понимает, что его предложение «является почти провокацией». «Цель состоит в том, чтобы сделать финансовые кризисы менее вероятными в будущем, — отметил он. — Очевидно, что есть необходимость в обдумывании этого».
ЕЦБ ПРЕДОСТАВИЛ ИРЛАНДСКИМ БАНКАМ 116,9 МЛРД ЕВРО ПО ИТОГАМ ФЕВРАЛЯ 2011
Дублин (Dow Jones) - Европейский Центральный Банк одолжил Ирландским банкам EUR116.9 в конце февраля, по сравнению с EUR126 млрд по сравнению с концом января, но все еще намного выше EUR84.9 миллиардов предоставленных в конце февраля 2010 года. Данные показывают резкое увеличение зависимости Ирландских банков от финансирования со стороны ЕЦБ во время финансового кризиса.
DUBLIN (Dow Jones)--The European Central Bank lent banks in Ireland EUR116.9 billion by the end of February, compared with the EUR126 billion they received to the end of January, but still far above the EUR84.9 billion lent to the end of February 2010, showing the dramatic increase in dependence by Irish banks on funding from the ECB during the financial crisis.
Central Bank of Ireland data Friday also showed that it had separately lent banks in Ireland EUR70 billion to the end of February in «exceptional liquidity assistance,» up from the EUR51.1 billion at the end of the previous month, according to its credit and money statistics.
Ireland is in the midst of an economic and banking crisis mainly due to the reckless lending by most of the country's banks to property developers during the decade-long Celtic Tiger boom. Its banks, locked out of most inter-bank funding markets, have been forced to rely on the ECB and the Irish central bank for large amounts of funding since September. Ireland was also forced to turn to the European Union and International Monetary Fund in November for international bailout loans. A new Irish coalition government that took power on Wednesday said it will renegotiate the terms of the EUR67.5 billion rescue package from the EU and the IMF.
Премьер-министр Ирландии,отверг предложения Канцлера Германии по поводу возможности повышения корпоративных налогов
В ответ на предложение немецкого Канцлера Меркель, получить возможность снизить процентные платежи для Ирландии, в рамках кредитной линии от Евросоюза, если правительство нынешнего премьера Enda Kenny, согласится на повышение корпоративных налогов, правительство Ирландии ответило отказом.Премьер Enda Kenny заявил, что не будет поддерживать никаких предложений и рассматривать варианты, для измненения налоговой ставки для корпораций, которые работают в стране.
March 11 (Bloomberg) — Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny rebuffed German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conditions on easing bailout terms, setting up a clash as European Union leaders struggle to break a deadlock on tackling the debt crisis. Kenny, arriving for his first summit as Ireland’s leader, rejected Merkel’s position to harmonize the corporate tax base in the euro region.
Greece has already dismissed selling state- owned land to cut debt, her other prerequisite for reducing the cost of rescue loans. “I’ve come here in two days in government with a very strong mandate from the Irish people,” Kenny told reporters in Brussels today.
Late yesterday, he said, “I would not support any adoption of a common corporation tax rate.”
EU leaders are entering the final round of bargaining as they attempt to hammer out a package to snuff out the euro-area crisis by a March 25 deadline. Bond yields in Greece and Portugal touched euro-era records this week and debt ratings of Greece and Spain were cut. “There is not much time left,” Pier Carlo Padoan, chief economist with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris, said in a telephone interview. “This is a critical time for Europe — a failure to provide an effective response to the situation would be something that everybody in Europe would pay for and regret.” After Portugal’s 10-year bond yields reached 7.70 percent on March 9, the highest since at least 1997, Prime Minister Jose Socrates’s government today announced “significant” new commitments on deficit reduction.
Portuguese Cuts The additional measures amount to 0.8 percent of gross domestic product for this year and should allow Portugal to bring the deficit down to the EU’s 3 percent limit in 2012, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said. The move is “an important building block of the needed comprehensive response to the sovereign debt crisis,” Rehn said in a statement. Portugal’s five-year yield rose 15 basis points to 7.92 percent, a fresh record, as of 11:15 a.m. in London amid speculation Socrates would soon seek a financial lifeline. “I hope the European leaders understand the seriousness of the situation we’re facing,” Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira Dos Santos said in Lisbon. Merkel, hemmed in by her coalition’s resistance to burden German taxpayers with additional bailout costs before six state elections, signaled flexibility yesterday for the first time in tackling the crisis that forced Greece and then Ireland to seek aid from the EU and International Monetary Fund.
Rescue-Fund Capacity In addition to backing what she called a moderate reduction in the cost of Greek and Irish loans, Merkel indicated support for raising the European rescue fund’s effective lending capacity to its headline figure of 440 billion euros ($605 billion) and for making sure that the facility replacing it in 2013 can pay out its full 500 billion euros if needed, according to four lawmakers who were present at the closed-door hearing. In return, she set a proviso that any about-turn by Germany over interest paid by Greece and Ireland for aid be tied to strict conditionality, the lawmakers said.
That offer was shot down by Kenny after he held talks with European Commission President Jose Barroso. “I’ve already made the case that I consider the common corporate tax base would have the same effect: this would be harmonization of taxes through the back door,” Kenny said. Kenny and Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou traveled to Berlin separately last month to persuade Merkel to support an easing of lending terms. She snubbed Kenny’s plea to cut the cost of Ireland’s 85 billion-euro bailout at a March 4 meeting of their European People’s Party, saying “relief isn’t the issue.” Kenny wants to lower the 5.8 percent interest rate on aid loans and end the protection of senior bank bondholders. ‘Historic Decisions’ Papandreou, arriving for the summit today, called for EU leaders to take “historic decisions.” “We have taken the pain to make country economically viable,” he said. “But we now need European decisions, strong decisions, to calm the markets.”
Greek securities plunged this week after Moody’s Investors Service cut the nation’s rating, already at junk, by another three levels, saying the probability of default had increased. The difference in yield, or spread, between Spanish and German securities increased for a fourth day, rising five basis points to 231 basis points, or 2.31 percentage points, as of 7:42 a.m. in London. The Italian-German yield spread widened four basis points to 176 basis points. The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.3758 as of 11:29 a.m. in Berlin. Competitiveness Plan As part of the quest for a comprehensive crisis-fighting package, the EU is closing in on a plan today to raise the region’s competitiveness and tighten economic cooperation, German and French officials said. The pact, which includes chapters on competitiveness, labor, sustainable public finances and the stability of financial systems, sets objectives rather than binding targets, leaving countries free find their own policy mix, the officials said on condition of anonymity because the talks are not public. “I can imagine the euro zone countries will agree on the competitiveness pact,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told reporters today. “At the same time, it is all very much national and not enforceable, but it will undoubtedly help to strengthen the economies.”
Дефицит бюджета Греции в январе-феврале 2011 года вырос:На 9% больше чем том же периоде прошлого года
ATHENS, March 10 (Reuters) — Weaker than forecast revenues and higher spending caused Greece's state budget deficit to widen in the first two months of 2011, the finance ministry said on Friday, putting a further strain on already tough fiscal targets. With the economy in its third straight year of recession, generating revenue growth to further shrink the fiscal shortfall is proving difficult.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to shrink 3 percent this year after a 4.5 percent slump in 2010. The data refers to the state budget deficit, which excludes local authorities and social security spending and does not coincide with the general government shortfall — the benchmark for the EU's assessment of Greece's economic policy programme.
The data showed the January-February central government budget gap widened 9.0 percent year-on-year to 1.028 billion euros as net ordinary budget revenue fell 9.2 percent to 7.943 billion. Ordinary budget spending rose 3.3 percent. The fiscal gap was higher than hoped, with revenues missing an indicative target of 8.808 billion euros in the two-month period by 9.8 percent.
The ministry attributed the weakness in revenues to lower proceeds from a one-off tax on profitable companies, down by 99 million euros from a year earlier, and lower income tax receipts. It said the increase in expenses was due to a 351 million euro outlay to state hospitals to pay past due obligations. Interest payments were down 1.3 percent to 859 million euros. Struggling to dig itself out of its debt crisis and return to bond markets, the overborrowed euro zone state is aiming to slash its budget deficit to 7.4 percent of GDP this year from 9.4 percent in 2010.
РИСКИ ПОНИЖЕНИЯ СУВЕРЕННЫХ РЕЙТИНГОВ В ЕВРОПЕ УСИЛЯТСЯ,ЕСЛИ ЛИДЕРЫ ЕВРОСОЮЗА НЕ ПРИМУТ КОНКРЕТНЫЕ РЕШЕНИЯ:ГОВОРИТ АГЕНТСТВО FITCH
Об этом, в интервью Reuters Insider TV заявил господин David Riley из кредитного агентства Fitch.По мнению господина Riley, в тому случае, если каких то конкретных договоренностей с точки зрения принятия необходимых документов на саммите Евросоюза, не будет, это существенно увеличит риски новой волны понижения суверенных рейтингов в регионе.Лично сам господин David Riley полагает, что наиболее действенной мерой, которая могла бы отчасти нейтрализовать риски, в первую очередь возможного дефолта по долгам некоторых стран, было бы увеличение размера фондов спасения Евросоюза (European Financial Stability Facility и European Stabilisation Mechanism) и наращивание их мощностей.
LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) — The risk of credit downgrades for euro zone governments will intensify if European leaders cannot agree a credible and coherent policy response to the bloc's debt crisis, ratings agency Fitch said on Friday.
Euro zone leaders must deliver on fiscal consolidation and structural reform, engineer a broader economic recovery and create a coherent and comprehensive EU policy response David Riley, head of global sovereign ratings at Fitch, said in an interview with Reuters Insider TV.
Asked if the risk of downgrade would intensify if such a policy package was not delivered, Riley said: «Yes.» Euro zone leaders are meeting in Brussels later on Friday to agree rules to constrain national debts in the future, the first of a series of crucial meetings this month aiming to draw a line under the European debt crisis.
Riley said a boost to the lending capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Stabilisation Mechanism crisis funds would reduce euro zone default risk. «It would help,» he said. Riley said Portugal would face most immediate market pressure without an all-embracing rescue plan. «If there's not a credible and comprehensive policy response there's going to be quite intense pressure on Portugal in the market,» he said.
Riley said Greece was struggling most to convince investors of its solvency, despite the commitment in Athens to fulfil obligations under a joint European Union/International Monetary Fund 110 billion euro financial aid programme agreed last year. «Greece is clearly the country that faces the greatest challenge in terms of its solvency,» Riley said. «Our discussions with the Greek authorities suggest they remain committed to trying to implement the programme agreed with the IMF and the EU.»
Whatever plan EU leaders do manage to deliver, it is likely to have to include a debt restructuring of at least one euro zone nation's debt, according to Carmen Reinhart, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. «Given the orders of magnitudes of public and private debts it would be inevitable. It is not a substitute for the austerity, it is a complement to it,» said Reinhart, co-author of a history of 800 years of sovereign default with Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff. «It is unrealistic to assume that countries like Ireland or Greece can go on with strict austerity, not really growing. The evidence for growing your way out of debts is not there,» Reinhart told Reuters Insider. «I think facing up to a default, or more likely a restructuring, is something that has to be taken on hand.»
Все интервью можно посмотреть здесь: http://link.reuters.com/zec58r
ОПЕК ПОВЫСИЛ ОБЪЕМ ДОБЫЧИ НЕФТИ В ФЕВРАЛЕ ДО МАКСИМАЛЬНОГО УРОВНЯ С ДЕКАБРЯ 2008 ГОДА
Таким образом, объем добычи нефти, вышел на пиковый, за более, чем три года уровень.Именно в декабре 2008 года, ОПЕК, впервые стал понижать квоты на добычу нефти на фоне кризиса доверия на финансовом рынке.
LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) — OPEC stuck to its view that the world has enough oil despite the loss of Libya's crude and prices of $113 a barrel, pointing to rising output from other members and a looming seasonal slowdown in demand. In a monthly report on Friday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said February output rose 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) to30.02 million bpd, thehighest since December 2008 when the group agreed a record cut in its output.
OPEC said oil stocks would rise if it maintained output at February's level and European oil refineries — those most affected by the loss of Libyan crude exports — had time to source replacement supplies. «Despite the onset of the low seasonal demand period, recent disruptions may create some anxiety in the market, providing grounds for increased speculative activity,» OPEC said in its report.
«The impact of the disruption in North African crude oil exports will be mainly felt by European refineries. Considering the availability of product stocks, refiners should have enough time over the maintenance season to adapt to any new requirements.» OPEC ministers and officials have said that the group does not need to hold an emergency meeting because supply is ample. Its next scheduled meeting is in June. In the report, OPEC said it was ready to take any further action, reiterating that it was able to add close to 6 million bpd to the market if needed. «OPEC continues to closely monitor oil market developments and stands ready to act, as deemed necessary, to support market stability,» it said.
СТАВКА ДОХОДНОСТИ ДОЛГОВЫХ БУМАГ ПОРТУГАЛИИ ВЫРОСЛА ДО МАКСИМУМА С ЯНВАРЯ 1999 ГОДА,ПОСЛЕ КОММЕНТАРИЕВ МИНФИНА СТРАНЫ
Министр финансов Португалии, господин Teixeira Dos Santos, заявил, что лидеры Евросоюза недооценивают серьезность долгового кризиса в евопейском регионе.Эти комментарии прозвучали на пресс-конференции в Лиссабоне, которая была посвящена предстоящему сегодня самиту Евросоюза.Ремарка по поводу серьезности кризиса, прозвучала в качестве ответа на вопрос о возможности участия Португалии в программе финансовой помощи Евросоюза и МВФ.
March 11 (Bloomberg) — The yield on Portuguese five-year bonds reached a euro-era record as Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira Dos Santos said European leaders must understand the “seriousness” of the region’s debt crisis. The five-year yield rose 15 basis points to 7.92 percent as of 11:15 a.m. in London.
Teixera Dos Santos was responding when asked whether his country was preparing to request an European Union bailout. He made the remarks at a press conference in Lisbon before the start of a summit of EU leaders later today in Brussels. “We’re going to wait for this meeting to take place,” he said. “And I hope the European leaders understand the seriousness of the situation we’re facing.”
ЦЕНЫ В КИТАЕ В ФЕВРАЛЕ РАСТУТ БЫСТРЕЕ ЧЕМ ОЖИДАЛОСЬ
ПЕКИН (AP) — Потребительские цены в Китае резкоповысились в феврале несмотря на усилия правительства охладить растущую инфляцию. Коммунистические лидеры на этой неделе обещали приложить все усилия чтобы улучшить жизнь бедного большинства китайского народа, обещая более высокие зарплаты и субсидии.Рост инфляции произошел, за счет ускоренного увеличения цен на продовольствие, которые выросли сразу на 11%.Если бы потребительская корзина, рассчитывалась по старой методологии (до ноября прошлого года), то рост инфляции мог бы превысить 5.8%. Скачок цен в феврале мог «обнулить» все усилия доблестной коммунистической партии Китая....
BEIJING (AP) — China's consumer prices rose sharply again in February despite government efforts to cool surging inflation that communist leaders worry might fuel unrest. The announcement Friday came after Beijing promised sweeping efforts this week to improve life for China's poor majority with higher wages and subsidies. Inflation could undercut that campaign by eroding the public's economic gains. Inflation remained elevated in February at 4.9 percent, exceeding analysts' forecasts and above the government's 4 percent target for the year.
Food price inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 11 percent from January's 10.3 percent rate. Inflation is likely to climb above 5 percent next month, then decline in the second half of the year, said Galaxy Securities economist Zhang Xinfa in Beijing. But Zhang said the outlook was unclear because Middle East turmoil, high oil costs and a possible weakening of the U.S. dollar might push inflation still higher. «If you look at both the political situation in the OPEC countries and the future trend of the U.S. dollar, you see a lot of uncertainty for Chinese inflation,» Zhang said.
Inflation, especially in food prices, is dangerous for China's leaders because it erodes economic gains that underpin the Communist Party's claim to power. Poor Chinese families spend up to half their incomes on food. Communist leaders have declared fighting inflation a top priority and repeatedly assured the public the problem is under control. But economists expect more sharp price rises this year because China faces a problem it cannot quickly fix: Demand is outstripping food supplies, while high global commodity prices mean it can't fill the gap cheaply with imports. At a news conference held as part of this week's annual meeting of China's legislature, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said inflation is stable, though at a «relatively high level.» Zhou ruled out major changes in credit or exchange rate policy.
Analysts say Beijing has fueled inflation by keeping interest rates too low and could cut import costs by letting its tightly controlled currency rise faster against the dollar. «The main instrument for managing inflation is not the exchange rate regime,» Zhou told reporters. He added later: «When we make adjustments to interest rates we cannot think about the consumer price index only. We have other objectives, such as the impact on liquidity in the market.» Still, the sharp price rises increased the likelihood of new rate hikes as soon as next week after the legislature session ends, said Credit Suisse economist Dong Tao. The central bank already has raised rates three times since October.
«Inflationary pressure is still acute in China,» Tao said in a report. «This probably has surprised the decision makers in Beijing.» Nonfood inflation in February was a relatively low 2.3 percent, but analysts say price pressures are likely to spread beyond food. Producer prices rose 7.2 percent, suggesting consumers might face more price hikes as suppliers pass on higher costs. Demand has been fueled by economic growth that hit 10.3 percent last year. The expansion is slowing as Beijing curbs its lending boom but the International Monetary Fund has forecast 9.6 percent growth this year. Beijing has tried to mollify the public by paying food subsidies to poor families and ordering local leaders to see vegetable markets have adequate supplies. ___ Associated Press researcher Zhao Liang contributed.
ВПЕРВЫЕ ЗА 2 МЕСЯЦА ЗАФИКСИРОВАН ЧИСТЫЙ ПРИТОК КАПИТАЛА В ФОНДЫ ИНВЕСТИРУЮЩИХ В РАЗВИВАЮЩИЕСЯ РЫНКИ
По крайне мере такую оценку по инвестиционным потокам, дает банк Citigroup Inc. ссылаясь на поступившую информацию от консалтинговой компании EPFR Global.Совокупный чистый приток клиентских средств, зафиксирован в период с конца февраля по 9 марта.Чистые показатели поступивших средств, составили около 17 миллионов долларов, что совсем немного с точки зрения масштабов, но в тоже время, это первый положительный показатель по инвестиционным потокам, начиная с января.Одновременно, замедлились потоки средств в фонды, ориентированные на инвестиции в активы развитых стран.
March 11 (Bloomberg) — Emerging-market stock mutual funds had their first inflows in seven weeks as investments in developed-market funds slowed, according to Citigroup Inc. The inflows of $17 million during the week ended March 9 were the first since Jan. 19, according to a report today by Markus Rosgen, a Hong Kong-based Citigroup strategist, which cited data compiled by research firm EPFR Global. Emerging-market funds had recorded six straight weeks of outflows as intensifying violence in Libya disrupted oil supplies and fueled concern inflation will hurt developing economies.
Crude is headed for its first weekly decline in four as signs of weakening demand in the U.S. countered escalating turmoil in Libya and unrest in Saudi Arabia. Oil futures in New York have surged 25 percent in the past year. Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global financial crisis, said on March 8 that an increase in oil prices to $140 a barrel will cause some advanced economies to slide back into recession.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second-biggest U.S. bank, said in a note on March 9 it ended its preference for developed-nation stocks over equities in emerging markets after lowering U.S. and Euro economic growth estimates for 2011. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.7 percent at 11:55 a.m. in Singapore, while the MSCI World Index of developed- country shares dropped 0.1 percent. The emerging-market gauge has declined 3.8 percent this year, compared with the MSCI World’s 2.5 percent increase.
noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a3pZ3ARro.48
Управляющий Народного банка Китая Чжоу: Процентные ставки - важный инструмент сдерживания инфляции
Чжоу: Недостаток фондов в банках лишь относителен
Чжоу: Недостаток фондов в банках — цель «разумной» денежно-кредитной политики
Чжоу: Недостаток фондов в банках «нормален»
Чжоу: Реальные депозитные ставки, как правило, позитивны в среднесрочной перспективе
Чжоу: Реальные депозитные ставки иногда могут быть негативными в краткосрочной перспективе
Чжоу уверен в экономике еврозоны
Чжоу: Инфляционные ожидания в настоящее время стабильны
Чжоу: Повышение процентных ставок может вызвать притоки капитала
Чжоу: Китай обладает механизмом контроля над притоками капитала
Чжоу: Процентные ставки в настоящее время являются важным инструментом
FX: худший день евро в месяце
Опасения на долговом рынке Еврозоны стали причиной падения Евро в четверг. Понижение рейтинга Испании, опасение по поводу проблем в Португалии стали основным драйвером этого движения. На прошлой неделе, комментарии господина Трише, по поводу повышения ставки и магическое слово "vigilance" помогли добраться до уровня 1.4036. Падение в четверг трейдеры списали на понижение рейтинга агентством Moody's. Хотя многие уверены в том, что для рынка фокусы Moody's не так сильно оказывают влияние, удивления по поводу снижения рейтинга, трейдеры не испытали. Публика полагает что до окончания долговых проблем в Еврозоне ещё очень далеко. Впрочем высшее руководство стран Евросоюза это доказывает от саммита к саммиту.
ПОЛИЦИЯ В САУДОВСКОЙ АРАВИИ ОТКРЫЛА ОГОНЬ ПО ДЕМОНСТРАНТАМ.В ГОРОДЕ QATIF ЕСТЬ ЖЕРТВЫ.
Полиция получила распоряжение пресекать любые несанкционированные акции протеста.В результате, когда толпа демонстрантов попыталась открыто выразить свое недовольство правящим режимом, полиция открыла огонь.Не сообщается, были ли беспорядки в столице Саудовской Аравии городе Эль-Рияде, но известно, что были применены средства поражения со стороны полиции в городе Qatif
Police in Saudi Arabia have opened fire at a rally in the country's east in an apparent escalation of efforts to stop planned protests. Government officials have warned they will take strong action if activists take to the streets after increasing calls for large protests around the oil-rich kingdom to press for democratic reforms.
A witness in the city of Qatif said gunfire and stun grenades were fired at several hundred protesters marching in the city streets on Thursday. The witness, speaking on condition of anonymity because he feared government reprisal, said police in the area opened fire. He said he saw at least one protester injured. Last week Saudi Arabia banned public protests following demonstrations by minority Shia groups.
The ruling came after widespread demonstrations in the Middle East – including those that led to the downfall of regimes in Egypt and Tunisia – and two weeks of Shia agitation in Saudi Arabia itself, during which 22 people were arrested. A statement issued by the country's council of senior clerics at the time said said: «The council… affirms that demonstrations are forbidden in this country.
The correct way in sharia [law] of realising common interest is by advising, which is what the Prophet Muhammad established. „Reform and advice should not be via demonstrations and ways that provoke strife and division, this is what the religious scholars of this country in the past and now have forbidden and warned against.“ The statement made clear the council's stance against political parties, which are banned as they are deemed to be not in keeping with Islam. larger | smaller World news Saudi Arabia · Middle East More news
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/10/saudi-arabia-police-fire-protest
Владельцы танкерных судов терпят катастрофические убытки из-за срыва поставок нефти из Ливии.
Отдача от танкерных перевозок резко упала, из-за событий в Ливии, так как поставки нефти практически парализованы.Это привело к тому, что прибыль владельцев танкерных судов, которые сдавали фрахт, упала на 49% только за сегодняшний день, после того как почти все суда не вышли из ливийского порта Marsa el Brega, по причине того, что не были заполнены нефтью.Все заказы были аннулированы.За 6 дней прибыль от танкерных перевозок по Средиземноморью, упала на 83%.
March 10 (Bloomberg) — Returns for owners of ships hauling oil across the Mediterranean slumped 49 percent today after a tanker left the Libyan port of Marsa el Brega empty because there was no crude to collect. The charter for the Frankopan to load a Libyan cargo was canceled, Dragan Gacina, marketing manager at Zadar, Croatia- based Tankerska Plovidba, said by phone today. Exports from the terminals of Marsa el Brega, Es Sider and Ras Lanuf were halted, said Dimitris Tsahalis, chartering manager at tanker owner Thenamaris Ships Management Inc., citing Libyan port agents. “Ras Lanuf, Es Sider and Marsa el Brega seem to be out,” Tsahalis said by phone from Athens today.
Shipments from the ports of Mellitah, Bouri and Zawiyah in western Libya are continuing, with some oil in storage at those sites, he said. Fighting has intensified this week in the North African country as national leader Muammar Qaddafi seeks to turn back rebels advancing from Ras Lanuf. The conflict in Libya, holder of Africa’s largest oil reserves, has lifted crude prices to a 2 1/2-year high.
The U.S. and other countries have frozen assets of Qaddafi and his associates held outside Libya. Returns from tankers on the route across the Mediterranean fell to $8,357 a day, extending their six-day slump to 83 percent, according to data from the Baltic Exchange. The London- based bourse published assessments for more than 50 maritime routes. As well as reduced cargoes from Libya, a pipeline explosion has hindered shipments of Iraqi crude to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, potentially lowering demand for vessels further.
noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aUZgo1j5XDO0
ДОЛГОВОЙ РЫНОК ЕВРОЗОНЫ:ЦЕНЫ НА ПОРТУГАЛИЮ ПАДАЮТ,НА ИСПАНИЮ РАСТУТ
ГЕРМАНИЯ (ориентир по ставке доходности)
БЕЛЬГИЯ
ИТАЛИЯ
ИСПАНИЯ
ПОРТУГАЛИЯ
ИРЛАНДИЯ
http://www.bloomberg.com/ (C) Источник
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Причины землетрясения и цунами
РЫНОК НЕФТИ:БЛИЖНИЙ ВОСТОК,США,ВЛИЯНИЕ НА РЫНОК
Тут надо все по порядку.Началось с Египта.Значит посмотрим на географию, ведь там у них Суэцкий канал.
Потом посмотрим на Ливию и Саудовскую Аравию
Теперь о наибольшей зависимости от нефти по странам (те кто зависит от цены как производитель и как потребитель)
Влияние цен на нефть на мировые рынки
Американские стратегические резервы и география поставок нефти в США
У ИНДИИ ЕСТЬ ШАНСЫ ОБОЙТИ КИТАЙ
Экспортный рост в двух самых больших развивающихся экономических системах в мире показал расхождение. Согласно данным опубликованным Nomura, экспорт Индии двигается на большой скорости вперед, поднявшись почти к 40 процентам в феврале, в тоже время экспорт из Китая опустился к 20 процентам с 32.Экспорт Индии повышался возрастающим товарным экспортом (нефтепродукты, руда, сплавы и полезные ископаемые), трудоемким экспортом (драгоценные камни и драгоценности и предметы одежды) и экспортом с высокой добавленной стоимостью (технические товары), сообщают экономисты Nomura. Тем временем, экспорт Китая ослабел, частично это связывают с длинным празднованием Китайского Нового года.
Однако, дефицит «менее квалифицированного» труда и последующее ожидаемое повышения заработной платы — является структурным фактором, который может начать ограничивать трудоемкий экспорт из Китая. Временное падение в китайском экспорте вследствии сезонных искажений (праздник) выправится, но экспорт из Индии, вероятно, опередит Китайский, поскольку ценовое давление последнего растет. Экономисты Nomura считают, что у Индии есть все шансы обйти Китай в 2011 году.
БИЛЛ ГРОСС ГОВОРИТ, ЧТО НЕ БУДЕТ ПОКУПАТЬ 10-ЛЕТНИЕ ТРЕЖЕРИС, ПОКА ДОХОДНОСТЬ ПО НИМ НЕ ПРЕВЫСИТ 4%
Билл Гросс заявил в пятницу, что доходность по 10-летним казначейским облигациям должна быть не менее 4%, чтобы он возобновил их покупки. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-11/gross-starts-derivative-lite-version-of-pimco-total-return-as-rally-ends.html
ИЗВЕСТНЫЙ ИНВЕСТОР DENNIS GARTMAN ГОВОРИТ,ЧТО КУРС ЙЕНЫ БУДЕТ НА УРОВНЕ В 75
В своих аналитических заметках, которые называются«The Gartman Letter,» этот господин утвержадает, что курс йены в течение нескольких недель, дойдет до уровня в 75.
NEW YORK, March 11 (Reuters) — Prominent U.S. investor Dennis Gartman on Friday said the Japanese yen could strengthen to 75 against the U.S. dollar in a matter of days or weeks in the aftermath of Friday's massive earthquake.
Gartman, editor of «The Gartman Letter,» a widely followed investor newsletter, told Reuters the amount of money that will need to be repatriated to Japan in coming weeks is «enormous.»
The yen strengthened by 1 percent against the U.S. currency on Friday as investors anticipate a major prepatriation flow to pay for the damage caused by the 8.9 magnitude quake and subsequent tsunami. It last traded just above 82.
Индекс уверенности потребителей в США упал в марте до минимума за 5 месяцев.Индекс инфляционных ожиданий вырос
НОВОСТИ С САММИТА ЕВРОСОЮЗА:ГЕРМАНИЯ ПРИВЕТСТВУЕТ МЕРЫ ПРАВИТЕЛЬСТВА ПОРТУГАЛИИ
BRUSSELS, March 11 (Reuters) — There are positive signals that other troubled euro zone countries may also move after Portugal announced further spending cuts and reforms on Friday, a German government source said. Earlier, Portugal announced additional measures to cut its fiscal deficit in an attempt to stave off intense pressure to seek a bailout.
ГЛАВА ФРБ НЬЮ-ЙОРКА,ГОСПОДИН DUDLEY ГОВОРИТ:НЕТ ПРИЧИН БОЯТЬСЯ ИНФЛЯЦИИ.ВСЕ НОРМАЛЬНО
резидент Федерального Резервного Банка Нью-Йорка (ключевой банк в системе ФРС США) выступая сегодня на встрече с представителями американского бизнеса, заявил, что нынешний рост цен на сырье, возможно носит временный характер и необязательно должен трансформироваться в рост потребительских цен в стране.По его мнению, экономика США продолжает неплохо расти, но для ФРС не должно быть сомнений в том, что нельзя сворачивать свой курс и надо продолжать стимулирующие программы.
NEW YORK, March 11 (Reuters) — Some of the recent rise in commodity prices is likely to be temporary and is unlikely to feed through into a sustained rise in inflation, a top Federal Reserve official said on Friday. New York Fed President William Dudley, speaking to business leaders in Flushing, Queens in New York, repeated it was important the U.S. central bank does not overreact to rising energy prices.
«While rising commodity prices may be giving some of you a bad headache, they are not likely to lead to a sustained rise in inflation to levels inconsistent with our dual mandate,» Dudley told the Queens, New York chamber of commerce. The Fed's dual mandate is to ensure high employment and low and stable inflation in the United States — and Dudley stressed that the Fed was still far from achieving it. Dudley, who was a core advocate for the Fed's easy money policy, is seen as one of the more «dovish» members of the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
The committee meets next week and is not expected to alter its policy. Uprisings in the Middle East and Africa have contributed to the recent rise in energy prices and muddied the water somewhat for policymakers. Dudley noted that the situation in the Middle East and Africa remains «uncertain and „dynamic“. But, he said, U.S. consumers' expectations of future inflation are currently stable. He said a sustained rise in these expectations would be a threat to price stability that „would not be tolerated.“ „If that were to occur, that would be a troublesome development that would complicate the pursuit our dual mandate,“ he said. Dudley said he expects high unemployment to keep a lid on price pressures in the near term. Dudley said a number of indicators point to stronger economic growth in the coming months, and repeated that a stronger recovery is not a reason for the Fed to reverse course. He said faster progress to the Fed's dual mandate would be „very welcome“.
Член совета ЕЦБ,господин Бини Смаги, предлагает создать европейское агентство для выпуска долговых бумаг
March 11 (Bloomberg)17 стран еврозоны — это воспрепятствовать их дефолту или реструктуризации ими долговых обязательств за счет утверждения правил, которые имели бы существенный вес. «Однако как можно убедиться, что эти правила выполняются? Один из способов — предоставление полномочий по выпуску облигаций стран еврозоны наднациональной организации, — заявил он. — Страны не должны иметь возможность размещать гособлигации на рынке. Этот шаг может стать первым на пути к выпуску общеевропейских бондов». Главы стран еврозоны проведут в пятницу встречу в Брюсселе, где будет обсуждаться механизм помощи странам региона, имеющим наиболее высокие бюджетные дефициты. По словам Л.Бини Смаги, он понимает, что его предложение «является почти провокацией». «Цель состоит в том, чтобы сделать финансовые кризисы менее вероятными в будущем, — отметил он. — Очевидно, что есть необходимость в обдумывании этого».
ЕЦБ ПРЕДОСТАВИЛ ИРЛАНДСКИМ БАНКАМ 116,9 МЛРД ЕВРО ПО ИТОГАМ ФЕВРАЛЯ 2011
Дублин (Dow Jones) - Европейский Центральный Банк одолжил Ирландским банкам EUR116.9 в конце февраля, по сравнению с EUR126 млрд по сравнению с концом января, но все еще намного выше EUR84.9 миллиардов предоставленных в конце февраля 2010 года. Данные показывают резкое увеличение зависимости Ирландских банков от финансирования со стороны ЕЦБ во время финансового кризиса.
DUBLIN (Dow Jones)--The European Central Bank lent banks in Ireland EUR116.9 billion by the end of February, compared with the EUR126 billion they received to the end of January, but still far above the EUR84.9 billion lent to the end of February 2010, showing the dramatic increase in dependence by Irish banks on funding from the ECB during the financial crisis.
Central Bank of Ireland data Friday also showed that it had separately lent banks in Ireland EUR70 billion to the end of February in «exceptional liquidity assistance,» up from the EUR51.1 billion at the end of the previous month, according to its credit and money statistics.
Ireland is in the midst of an economic and banking crisis mainly due to the reckless lending by most of the country's banks to property developers during the decade-long Celtic Tiger boom. Its banks, locked out of most inter-bank funding markets, have been forced to rely on the ECB and the Irish central bank for large amounts of funding since September. Ireland was also forced to turn to the European Union and International Monetary Fund in November for international bailout loans. A new Irish coalition government that took power on Wednesday said it will renegotiate the terms of the EUR67.5 billion rescue package from the EU and the IMF.
Премьер-министр Ирландии,отверг предложения Канцлера Германии по поводу возможности повышения корпоративных налогов
В ответ на предложение немецкого Канцлера Меркель, получить возможность снизить процентные платежи для Ирландии, в рамках кредитной линии от Евросоюза, если правительство нынешнего премьера Enda Kenny, согласится на повышение корпоративных налогов, правительство Ирландии ответило отказом.Премьер Enda Kenny заявил, что не будет поддерживать никаких предложений и рассматривать варианты, для измненения налоговой ставки для корпораций, которые работают в стране.
March 11 (Bloomberg) — Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny rebuffed German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conditions on easing bailout terms, setting up a clash as European Union leaders struggle to break a deadlock on tackling the debt crisis. Kenny, arriving for his first summit as Ireland’s leader, rejected Merkel’s position to harmonize the corporate tax base in the euro region.
Greece has already dismissed selling state- owned land to cut debt, her other prerequisite for reducing the cost of rescue loans. “I’ve come here in two days in government with a very strong mandate from the Irish people,” Kenny told reporters in Brussels today.
Late yesterday, he said, “I would not support any adoption of a common corporation tax rate.”
EU leaders are entering the final round of bargaining as they attempt to hammer out a package to snuff out the euro-area crisis by a March 25 deadline. Bond yields in Greece and Portugal touched euro-era records this week and debt ratings of Greece and Spain were cut. “There is not much time left,” Pier Carlo Padoan, chief economist with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris, said in a telephone interview. “This is a critical time for Europe — a failure to provide an effective response to the situation would be something that everybody in Europe would pay for and regret.” After Portugal’s 10-year bond yields reached 7.70 percent on March 9, the highest since at least 1997, Prime Minister Jose Socrates’s government today announced “significant” new commitments on deficit reduction.
Portuguese Cuts The additional measures amount to 0.8 percent of gross domestic product for this year and should allow Portugal to bring the deficit down to the EU’s 3 percent limit in 2012, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said. The move is “an important building block of the needed comprehensive response to the sovereign debt crisis,” Rehn said in a statement. Portugal’s five-year yield rose 15 basis points to 7.92 percent, a fresh record, as of 11:15 a.m. in London amid speculation Socrates would soon seek a financial lifeline. “I hope the European leaders understand the seriousness of the situation we’re facing,” Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira Dos Santos said in Lisbon. Merkel, hemmed in by her coalition’s resistance to burden German taxpayers with additional bailout costs before six state elections, signaled flexibility yesterday for the first time in tackling the crisis that forced Greece and then Ireland to seek aid from the EU and International Monetary Fund.
Rescue-Fund Capacity In addition to backing what she called a moderate reduction in the cost of Greek and Irish loans, Merkel indicated support for raising the European rescue fund’s effective lending capacity to its headline figure of 440 billion euros ($605 billion) and for making sure that the facility replacing it in 2013 can pay out its full 500 billion euros if needed, according to four lawmakers who were present at the closed-door hearing. In return, she set a proviso that any about-turn by Germany over interest paid by Greece and Ireland for aid be tied to strict conditionality, the lawmakers said.
That offer was shot down by Kenny after he held talks with European Commission President Jose Barroso. “I’ve already made the case that I consider the common corporate tax base would have the same effect: this would be harmonization of taxes through the back door,” Kenny said. Kenny and Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou traveled to Berlin separately last month to persuade Merkel to support an easing of lending terms. She snubbed Kenny’s plea to cut the cost of Ireland’s 85 billion-euro bailout at a March 4 meeting of their European People’s Party, saying “relief isn’t the issue.” Kenny wants to lower the 5.8 percent interest rate on aid loans and end the protection of senior bank bondholders. ‘Historic Decisions’ Papandreou, arriving for the summit today, called for EU leaders to take “historic decisions.” “We have taken the pain to make country economically viable,” he said. “But we now need European decisions, strong decisions, to calm the markets.”
Greek securities plunged this week after Moody’s Investors Service cut the nation’s rating, already at junk, by another three levels, saying the probability of default had increased. The difference in yield, or spread, between Spanish and German securities increased for a fourth day, rising five basis points to 231 basis points, or 2.31 percentage points, as of 7:42 a.m. in London. The Italian-German yield spread widened four basis points to 176 basis points. The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.3758 as of 11:29 a.m. in Berlin. Competitiveness Plan As part of the quest for a comprehensive crisis-fighting package, the EU is closing in on a plan today to raise the region’s competitiveness and tighten economic cooperation, German and French officials said. The pact, which includes chapters on competitiveness, labor, sustainable public finances and the stability of financial systems, sets objectives rather than binding targets, leaving countries free find their own policy mix, the officials said on condition of anonymity because the talks are not public. “I can imagine the euro zone countries will agree on the competitiveness pact,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told reporters today. “At the same time, it is all very much national and not enforceable, but it will undoubtedly help to strengthen the economies.”
Дефицит бюджета Греции в январе-феврале 2011 года вырос:На 9% больше чем том же периоде прошлого года
ATHENS, March 10 (Reuters) — Weaker than forecast revenues and higher spending caused Greece's state budget deficit to widen in the first two months of 2011, the finance ministry said on Friday, putting a further strain on already tough fiscal targets. With the economy in its third straight year of recession, generating revenue growth to further shrink the fiscal shortfall is proving difficult.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to shrink 3 percent this year after a 4.5 percent slump in 2010. The data refers to the state budget deficit, which excludes local authorities and social security spending and does not coincide with the general government shortfall — the benchmark for the EU's assessment of Greece's economic policy programme.
The data showed the January-February central government budget gap widened 9.0 percent year-on-year to 1.028 billion euros as net ordinary budget revenue fell 9.2 percent to 7.943 billion. Ordinary budget spending rose 3.3 percent. The fiscal gap was higher than hoped, with revenues missing an indicative target of 8.808 billion euros in the two-month period by 9.8 percent.
The ministry attributed the weakness in revenues to lower proceeds from a one-off tax on profitable companies, down by 99 million euros from a year earlier, and lower income tax receipts. It said the increase in expenses was due to a 351 million euro outlay to state hospitals to pay past due obligations. Interest payments were down 1.3 percent to 859 million euros. Struggling to dig itself out of its debt crisis and return to bond markets, the overborrowed euro zone state is aiming to slash its budget deficit to 7.4 percent of GDP this year from 9.4 percent in 2010.
РИСКИ ПОНИЖЕНИЯ СУВЕРЕННЫХ РЕЙТИНГОВ В ЕВРОПЕ УСИЛЯТСЯ,ЕСЛИ ЛИДЕРЫ ЕВРОСОЮЗА НЕ ПРИМУТ КОНКРЕТНЫЕ РЕШЕНИЯ:ГОВОРИТ АГЕНТСТВО FITCH
Об этом, в интервью Reuters Insider TV заявил господин David Riley из кредитного агентства Fitch.По мнению господина Riley, в тому случае, если каких то конкретных договоренностей с точки зрения принятия необходимых документов на саммите Евросоюза, не будет, это существенно увеличит риски новой волны понижения суверенных рейтингов в регионе.Лично сам господин David Riley полагает, что наиболее действенной мерой, которая могла бы отчасти нейтрализовать риски, в первую очередь возможного дефолта по долгам некоторых стран, было бы увеличение размера фондов спасения Евросоюза (European Financial Stability Facility и European Stabilisation Mechanism) и наращивание их мощностей.
LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) — The risk of credit downgrades for euro zone governments will intensify if European leaders cannot agree a credible and coherent policy response to the bloc's debt crisis, ratings agency Fitch said on Friday.
Euro zone leaders must deliver on fiscal consolidation and structural reform, engineer a broader economic recovery and create a coherent and comprehensive EU policy response David Riley, head of global sovereign ratings at Fitch, said in an interview with Reuters Insider TV.
Asked if the risk of downgrade would intensify if such a policy package was not delivered, Riley said: «Yes.» Euro zone leaders are meeting in Brussels later on Friday to agree rules to constrain national debts in the future, the first of a series of crucial meetings this month aiming to draw a line under the European debt crisis.
Riley said a boost to the lending capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Stabilisation Mechanism crisis funds would reduce euro zone default risk. «It would help,» he said. Riley said Portugal would face most immediate market pressure without an all-embracing rescue plan. «If there's not a credible and comprehensive policy response there's going to be quite intense pressure on Portugal in the market,» he said.
Riley said Greece was struggling most to convince investors of its solvency, despite the commitment in Athens to fulfil obligations under a joint European Union/International Monetary Fund 110 billion euro financial aid programme agreed last year. «Greece is clearly the country that faces the greatest challenge in terms of its solvency,» Riley said. «Our discussions with the Greek authorities suggest they remain committed to trying to implement the programme agreed with the IMF and the EU.»
Whatever plan EU leaders do manage to deliver, it is likely to have to include a debt restructuring of at least one euro zone nation's debt, according to Carmen Reinhart, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. «Given the orders of magnitudes of public and private debts it would be inevitable. It is not a substitute for the austerity, it is a complement to it,» said Reinhart, co-author of a history of 800 years of sovereign default with Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff. «It is unrealistic to assume that countries like Ireland or Greece can go on with strict austerity, not really growing. The evidence for growing your way out of debts is not there,» Reinhart told Reuters Insider. «I think facing up to a default, or more likely a restructuring, is something that has to be taken on hand.»
Все интервью можно посмотреть здесь: http://link.reuters.com/zec58r
ОПЕК ПОВЫСИЛ ОБЪЕМ ДОБЫЧИ НЕФТИ В ФЕВРАЛЕ ДО МАКСИМАЛЬНОГО УРОВНЯ С ДЕКАБРЯ 2008 ГОДА
Таким образом, объем добычи нефти, вышел на пиковый, за более, чем три года уровень.Именно в декабре 2008 года, ОПЕК, впервые стал понижать квоты на добычу нефти на фоне кризиса доверия на финансовом рынке.
LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) — OPEC stuck to its view that the world has enough oil despite the loss of Libya's crude and prices of $113 a barrel, pointing to rising output from other members and a looming seasonal slowdown in demand. In a monthly report on Friday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said February output rose 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) to30.02 million bpd, thehighest since December 2008 when the group agreed a record cut in its output.
OPEC said oil stocks would rise if it maintained output at February's level and European oil refineries — those most affected by the loss of Libyan crude exports — had time to source replacement supplies. «Despite the onset of the low seasonal demand period, recent disruptions may create some anxiety in the market, providing grounds for increased speculative activity,» OPEC said in its report.
«The impact of the disruption in North African crude oil exports will be mainly felt by European refineries. Considering the availability of product stocks, refiners should have enough time over the maintenance season to adapt to any new requirements.» OPEC ministers and officials have said that the group does not need to hold an emergency meeting because supply is ample. Its next scheduled meeting is in June. In the report, OPEC said it was ready to take any further action, reiterating that it was able to add close to 6 million bpd to the market if needed. «OPEC continues to closely monitor oil market developments and stands ready to act, as deemed necessary, to support market stability,» it said.
СТАВКА ДОХОДНОСТИ ДОЛГОВЫХ БУМАГ ПОРТУГАЛИИ ВЫРОСЛА ДО МАКСИМУМА С ЯНВАРЯ 1999 ГОДА,ПОСЛЕ КОММЕНТАРИЕВ МИНФИНА СТРАНЫ
Министр финансов Португалии, господин Teixeira Dos Santos, заявил, что лидеры Евросоюза недооценивают серьезность долгового кризиса в евопейском регионе.Эти комментарии прозвучали на пресс-конференции в Лиссабоне, которая была посвящена предстоящему сегодня самиту Евросоюза.Ремарка по поводу серьезности кризиса, прозвучала в качестве ответа на вопрос о возможности участия Португалии в программе финансовой помощи Евросоюза и МВФ.
March 11 (Bloomberg) — The yield on Portuguese five-year bonds reached a euro-era record as Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira Dos Santos said European leaders must understand the “seriousness” of the region’s debt crisis. The five-year yield rose 15 basis points to 7.92 percent as of 11:15 a.m. in London.
Teixera Dos Santos was responding when asked whether his country was preparing to request an European Union bailout. He made the remarks at a press conference in Lisbon before the start of a summit of EU leaders later today in Brussels. “We’re going to wait for this meeting to take place,” he said. “And I hope the European leaders understand the seriousness of the situation we’re facing.”
ЦЕНЫ В КИТАЕ В ФЕВРАЛЕ РАСТУТ БЫСТРЕЕ ЧЕМ ОЖИДАЛОСЬ
ПЕКИН (AP) — Потребительские цены в Китае резкоповысились в феврале несмотря на усилия правительства охладить растущую инфляцию. Коммунистические лидеры на этой неделе обещали приложить все усилия чтобы улучшить жизнь бедного большинства китайского народа, обещая более высокие зарплаты и субсидии.Рост инфляции произошел, за счет ускоренного увеличения цен на продовольствие, которые выросли сразу на 11%.Если бы потребительская корзина, рассчитывалась по старой методологии (до ноября прошлого года), то рост инфляции мог бы превысить 5.8%. Скачок цен в феврале мог «обнулить» все усилия доблестной коммунистической партии Китая....
BEIJING (AP) — China's consumer prices rose sharply again in February despite government efforts to cool surging inflation that communist leaders worry might fuel unrest. The announcement Friday came after Beijing promised sweeping efforts this week to improve life for China's poor majority with higher wages and subsidies. Inflation could undercut that campaign by eroding the public's economic gains. Inflation remained elevated in February at 4.9 percent, exceeding analysts' forecasts and above the government's 4 percent target for the year.
Food price inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 11 percent from January's 10.3 percent rate. Inflation is likely to climb above 5 percent next month, then decline in the second half of the year, said Galaxy Securities economist Zhang Xinfa in Beijing. But Zhang said the outlook was unclear because Middle East turmoil, high oil costs and a possible weakening of the U.S. dollar might push inflation still higher. «If you look at both the political situation in the OPEC countries and the future trend of the U.S. dollar, you see a lot of uncertainty for Chinese inflation,» Zhang said.
Inflation, especially in food prices, is dangerous for China's leaders because it erodes economic gains that underpin the Communist Party's claim to power. Poor Chinese families spend up to half their incomes on food. Communist leaders have declared fighting inflation a top priority and repeatedly assured the public the problem is under control. But economists expect more sharp price rises this year because China faces a problem it cannot quickly fix: Demand is outstripping food supplies, while high global commodity prices mean it can't fill the gap cheaply with imports. At a news conference held as part of this week's annual meeting of China's legislature, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said inflation is stable, though at a «relatively high level.» Zhou ruled out major changes in credit or exchange rate policy.
Analysts say Beijing has fueled inflation by keeping interest rates too low and could cut import costs by letting its tightly controlled currency rise faster against the dollar. «The main instrument for managing inflation is not the exchange rate regime,» Zhou told reporters. He added later: «When we make adjustments to interest rates we cannot think about the consumer price index only. We have other objectives, such as the impact on liquidity in the market.» Still, the sharp price rises increased the likelihood of new rate hikes as soon as next week after the legislature session ends, said Credit Suisse economist Dong Tao. The central bank already has raised rates three times since October.
«Inflationary pressure is still acute in China,» Tao said in a report. «This probably has surprised the decision makers in Beijing.» Nonfood inflation in February was a relatively low 2.3 percent, but analysts say price pressures are likely to spread beyond food. Producer prices rose 7.2 percent, suggesting consumers might face more price hikes as suppliers pass on higher costs. Demand has been fueled by economic growth that hit 10.3 percent last year. The expansion is slowing as Beijing curbs its lending boom but the International Monetary Fund has forecast 9.6 percent growth this year. Beijing has tried to mollify the public by paying food subsidies to poor families and ordering local leaders to see vegetable markets have adequate supplies. ___ Associated Press researcher Zhao Liang contributed.
ВПЕРВЫЕ ЗА 2 МЕСЯЦА ЗАФИКСИРОВАН ЧИСТЫЙ ПРИТОК КАПИТАЛА В ФОНДЫ ИНВЕСТИРУЮЩИХ В РАЗВИВАЮЩИЕСЯ РЫНКИ
По крайне мере такую оценку по инвестиционным потокам, дает банк Citigroup Inc. ссылаясь на поступившую информацию от консалтинговой компании EPFR Global.Совокупный чистый приток клиентских средств, зафиксирован в период с конца февраля по 9 марта.Чистые показатели поступивших средств, составили около 17 миллионов долларов, что совсем немного с точки зрения масштабов, но в тоже время, это первый положительный показатель по инвестиционным потокам, начиная с января.Одновременно, замедлились потоки средств в фонды, ориентированные на инвестиции в активы развитых стран.
March 11 (Bloomberg) — Emerging-market stock mutual funds had their first inflows in seven weeks as investments in developed-market funds slowed, according to Citigroup Inc. The inflows of $17 million during the week ended March 9 were the first since Jan. 19, according to a report today by Markus Rosgen, a Hong Kong-based Citigroup strategist, which cited data compiled by research firm EPFR Global. Emerging-market funds had recorded six straight weeks of outflows as intensifying violence in Libya disrupted oil supplies and fueled concern inflation will hurt developing economies.
Crude is headed for its first weekly decline in four as signs of weakening demand in the U.S. countered escalating turmoil in Libya and unrest in Saudi Arabia. Oil futures in New York have surged 25 percent in the past year. Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global financial crisis, said on March 8 that an increase in oil prices to $140 a barrel will cause some advanced economies to slide back into recession.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second-biggest U.S. bank, said in a note on March 9 it ended its preference for developed-nation stocks over equities in emerging markets after lowering U.S. and Euro economic growth estimates for 2011. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.7 percent at 11:55 a.m. in Singapore, while the MSCI World Index of developed- country shares dropped 0.1 percent. The emerging-market gauge has declined 3.8 percent this year, compared with the MSCI World’s 2.5 percent increase.
noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a3pZ3ARro.48
Управляющий Народного банка Китая Чжоу: Процентные ставки - важный инструмент сдерживания инфляции
Чжоу: Недостаток фондов в банках лишь относителен
Чжоу: Недостаток фондов в банках — цель «разумной» денежно-кредитной политики
Чжоу: Недостаток фондов в банках «нормален»
Чжоу: Реальные депозитные ставки, как правило, позитивны в среднесрочной перспективе
Чжоу: Реальные депозитные ставки иногда могут быть негативными в краткосрочной перспективе
Чжоу уверен в экономике еврозоны
Чжоу: Инфляционные ожидания в настоящее время стабильны
Чжоу: Повышение процентных ставок может вызвать притоки капитала
Чжоу: Китай обладает механизмом контроля над притоками капитала
Чжоу: Процентные ставки в настоящее время являются важным инструментом
FX: худший день евро в месяце
Опасения на долговом рынке Еврозоны стали причиной падения Евро в четверг. Понижение рейтинга Испании, опасение по поводу проблем в Португалии стали основным драйвером этого движения. На прошлой неделе, комментарии господина Трише, по поводу повышения ставки и магическое слово "vigilance" помогли добраться до уровня 1.4036. Падение в четверг трейдеры списали на понижение рейтинга агентством Moody's. Хотя многие уверены в том, что для рынка фокусы Moody's не так сильно оказывают влияние, удивления по поводу снижения рейтинга, трейдеры не испытали. Публика полагает что до окончания долговых проблем в Еврозоне ещё очень далеко. Впрочем высшее руководство стран Евросоюза это доказывает от саммита к саммиту.
ПОЛИЦИЯ В САУДОВСКОЙ АРАВИИ ОТКРЫЛА ОГОНЬ ПО ДЕМОНСТРАНТАМ.В ГОРОДЕ QATIF ЕСТЬ ЖЕРТВЫ.
Полиция получила распоряжение пресекать любые несанкционированные акции протеста.В результате, когда толпа демонстрантов попыталась открыто выразить свое недовольство правящим режимом, полиция открыла огонь.Не сообщается, были ли беспорядки в столице Саудовской Аравии городе Эль-Рияде, но известно, что были применены средства поражения со стороны полиции в городе Qatif
Police in Saudi Arabia have opened fire at a rally in the country's east in an apparent escalation of efforts to stop planned protests. Government officials have warned they will take strong action if activists take to the streets after increasing calls for large protests around the oil-rich kingdom to press for democratic reforms.
A witness in the city of Qatif said gunfire and stun grenades were fired at several hundred protesters marching in the city streets on Thursday. The witness, speaking on condition of anonymity because he feared government reprisal, said police in the area opened fire. He said he saw at least one protester injured. Last week Saudi Arabia banned public protests following demonstrations by minority Shia groups.
The ruling came after widespread demonstrations in the Middle East – including those that led to the downfall of regimes in Egypt and Tunisia – and two weeks of Shia agitation in Saudi Arabia itself, during which 22 people were arrested. A statement issued by the country's council of senior clerics at the time said said: «The council… affirms that demonstrations are forbidden in this country.
The correct way in sharia [law] of realising common interest is by advising, which is what the Prophet Muhammad established. „Reform and advice should not be via demonstrations and ways that provoke strife and division, this is what the religious scholars of this country in the past and now have forbidden and warned against.“ The statement made clear the council's stance against political parties, which are banned as they are deemed to be not in keeping with Islam. larger | smaller World news Saudi Arabia · Middle East More news
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/10/saudi-arabia-police-fire-protest
Владельцы танкерных судов терпят катастрофические убытки из-за срыва поставок нефти из Ливии.
Отдача от танкерных перевозок резко упала, из-за событий в Ливии, так как поставки нефти практически парализованы.Это привело к тому, что прибыль владельцев танкерных судов, которые сдавали фрахт, упала на 49% только за сегодняшний день, после того как почти все суда не вышли из ливийского порта Marsa el Brega, по причине того, что не были заполнены нефтью.Все заказы были аннулированы.За 6 дней прибыль от танкерных перевозок по Средиземноморью, упала на 83%.
March 10 (Bloomberg) — Returns for owners of ships hauling oil across the Mediterranean slumped 49 percent today after a tanker left the Libyan port of Marsa el Brega empty because there was no crude to collect. The charter for the Frankopan to load a Libyan cargo was canceled, Dragan Gacina, marketing manager at Zadar, Croatia- based Tankerska Plovidba, said by phone today. Exports from the terminals of Marsa el Brega, Es Sider and Ras Lanuf were halted, said Dimitris Tsahalis, chartering manager at tanker owner Thenamaris Ships Management Inc., citing Libyan port agents. “Ras Lanuf, Es Sider and Marsa el Brega seem to be out,” Tsahalis said by phone from Athens today.
Shipments from the ports of Mellitah, Bouri and Zawiyah in western Libya are continuing, with some oil in storage at those sites, he said. Fighting has intensified this week in the North African country as national leader Muammar Qaddafi seeks to turn back rebels advancing from Ras Lanuf. The conflict in Libya, holder of Africa’s largest oil reserves, has lifted crude prices to a 2 1/2-year high.
The U.S. and other countries have frozen assets of Qaddafi and his associates held outside Libya. Returns from tankers on the route across the Mediterranean fell to $8,357 a day, extending their six-day slump to 83 percent, according to data from the Baltic Exchange. The London- based bourse published assessments for more than 50 maritime routes. As well as reduced cargoes from Libya, a pipeline explosion has hindered shipments of Iraqi crude to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, potentially lowering demand for vessels further.
noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aUZgo1j5XDO0
ДОЛГОВОЙ РЫНОК ЕВРОЗОНЫ:ЦЕНЫ НА ПОРТУГАЛИЮ ПАДАЮТ,НА ИСПАНИЮ РАСТУТ
ГЕРМАНИЯ (ориентир по ставке доходности)
БЕЛЬГИЯ
ИТАЛИЯ
ИСПАНИЯ
ПОРТУГАЛИЯ
ИРЛАНДИЯ
http://www.bloomberg.com/ (C) Источник
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