16 марта 2011 Bloomberg
Банк Японии предоставил банкам еще 5.5 триллионов йен в качестве экстренного финансирования.Таким образом, с начала недели, совокупный объем средств, предоставленных японским банкам, составил почти 48 триллионов йен.
TOKYO, March 16, Kyodo The Bank of Japan on Wednesday offered an additional 5.5 trillion yen ($68 billion) to money markets, bringing to 47.3 trillion yen the total emergency funds made available by the central bank to protect the nation's banking system from the negative impact of Friday's massive earthquake.
The BOJ immediately injected 3.5 trillion yen into the markets, where financial institutions lend short-term money to each other, as its emergency operation entered a third day. The bank said it will provide another 2 trillion yen on Friday against certain collateral. The series of moves are designed to help banks and other institutions in quake-hit areas raise necessary funds. ==Kyodo
АГЕНТСТВО MOODY S ПОНИЖАЕТ НА ДВЕ СТУПЕНИ,КРЕДИТНЫЙ РЕЙТИНГ ПОРТУГАЛИИ.ПРОГНОЗ "НЕГАТИВНЫЙ"
Снижение рейтинга, агентство обосновало тем, что Португалии скорее всего понадобятся средства на рекапитализацию банков.Также, по мнению Moody’s Investors Service, для правительства страны, будет слишком сложно добиться выполнения поставленных задач по сокращению бюджетного дефицита.Еще одними из рисков для стабильности экономики и финансовой системы Португалии,Moody’s Investors Service считает возможный рост процентной ставки со стороны ЕЦБ и перспективы дальнейшего роста цен на нефть.Оба упомянутых фактора, могут оказать очень негативное воздействие на экономику, с точки зрения дальнейшей устойчивости.
March 16 (Bloomberg) — Portugal’s long-term debt rating was cut two steps by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited a weaker growth outlook, risks to the government’s deficit- reduction plans and a possible need to recapitalize its banks. The rating was downgraded to A3, four steps from so-called junk status, according to an e-mailed statement from Moody’s yesterday, with the outlook on the grade “negative.
“The government faces significant challenges, not least a less supportive economic environment,” Moody’s said in its statement. Gross domestic product is expected to “decline this year and experience a weak recovery at best in 2012,” it said. Moody’s said its rating takes into account measures announced by Prime Minister Jose Socrates’s government last week and is driven by “ambitious” fiscal goals and “subdued” growth prospects.
It also said higher interest rates from the European Central Bank may compound the nation’s fiscal problem. Higher Rates “Rising inflationary pressures could lead to an increase in the ECB’s policy rate, which could aggravate the Portuguese government’s funding costs and put additional pressure on private-sector borrowing costs,” Moody’s said.
“Should oil prices rise further and remain high for over a long period, external imbalances would worsen, given Portugal’s dependence on imported energy.” noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.Df2YY8tSEo&pos=4
ИНДЕКС ОПЕРЕЖАЮЩИХ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ИНДИКАТОРОВ ПО КИТАЮ,ВЫРОС В ЯНВАРЕ НА 0.3%.
После того, как индекс опережающих индикаторов впервые за 3 года, упал в декабре, появились опасения, что темпы замедления экономики Китая, окажутся чуть сильнее, чем ожидалось.Тем не менее, январские данные от института Conference Board, показали, что пока тенденция спада, не стала очевидной.В январе, индекс опережающих индикаторов вырос до 155 пунктов, что на 0.3% превышает декабрьские показатели.
March 16 (Bloomberg) — An indicator of China’s economic outlook rebounded, easing concerns that the government’s campaign to curb inflation and asset bubbles may lead to a sudden slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy. The index rose 0.3 percent to 155 in January from the previous month, The Conference Board, a New York-based research organization said on its website today, citing preliminary data.
The indicator recorded the first decline since 2008 in December. Premier Wen Jiabao this week vowed to tame inflation he described as a tiger that “once set free will be very difficult to put back into its cage.” The central bank has imposed three increases in interest rates and five adjustments to banks’ reserve requirements since mid-October to rein in liquidity that’s fueling gains in housing and food costs that could threaten social stability. “Economic activity remains strong although there is some moderation in momentum,” Chang Jian, a Hong Kong-based economist with Barclays Capital said before today’s release. “Policymakers are now confronted with the task of striking a balance between sufficient tightening and overshooting.”
The Conference Board’s coincident economic index for China, a measure of current activity, increased 1.4 percent in January to 200.8, after gaining a revised 0.1 percent in December. Expectations Stable China grew 10.3 percent last year, overtaking Japan as the world’s second-biggest economy. The International Monetary Fund estimates the nation’s expansion may slow to 9.6 percent this year, more than twice as fast as the world as a whole. Consumer prices climbed 4.9 percent in January and February, exceeding government’s 4 percent target for this year. Prices of new homes rose in January from a year earlier in all but two of 70 cities monitored by the government, the statistics bureau reported last month. Inflation expectations are stable, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said last week.
Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley forecast consumer-price gains will accelerate to more than 5 percent, prompting further increases in interest rates and reserve requirement ratios. JPMorgan expects inflation this month to be 5.3 percent. Morgan Stanley estimates consumer prices will climb by more than 5.5 percent by June and expects the central bank to adjust interest rates twice in the first half of the year. Rates Delay Still, the “uncertainty” added to the global economic outlook by Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis may prompt officials to delay increases in interest rates and reserve requirements “on the margin,” Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting said in a March 14 note.
The six components of the leading index are loans by financial institutions, raw-material supplies, deliveries and new export orders information from the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, consumer expectations, and total floor space started. The central bank publishes the first two components and the statistics bureau releases the other four. Two of the six components contributed positively to the index in January, according to today’s statement. The Conference Board first published the index in May after four years of development and says it is designed to capture the outlook over the coming six months. The organization says that plotted back to 1986, the index has successfully signaled turning points in China’s economic cycle. noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOiod4XrTyzU&pos=5
СИТУАЦИЯ НА РЕАКТОРЕ № 1 АТОМНОЙ СТАНЦИИ FUKUSHIMA "ЗНАЧИТЕЛЬНО УХУДШИЛАСЬ"
По крайне мере такая информация содержится в отчет от американского Institute for Science and International Security, который был опубликован вечером во вторник.Институт аргументирует свои опасения тем, что после серии взрывов на реакторе станции Fukushima No. 1, существуют проблемы с отработанным ядерным топливом, которое хранится в бассейне.Эта катастрофа уже не может котироваться по шкале риска 4 (изначально, специалисты института градировали эту аварию, именно по 4 шкале) есть вероятность, что шкалу риска придеться поднять до 6, а вполне вероятно и 7 уровня (по этой шкале, градировали Чернобыльскую катастрофу)
WASHINGTON, March 15 (AP) — (Kyodo)”The situation at the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant in northeastern Japan «has worsened considerably,» the Institute for Science and International Security said in a statement released Tuesday.
Referring to fresh explosions that occurred earlier in the day at the site and problems in a pool storing spent nuclear fuel rods, the Washington-based think tank said, «This accident can no longer be viewed as a level 4 on the International Nuclear and Radiological Events scale that ranks events from 1 to 7.»
Noting that a level 4 incident involves «only local radiological consequences,» it said the ongoing crisis is «now closer to a level 6, and it may unfortunately reach a level 7» — a worst case scenario with extensive health and environmental consequences. «The international community should increase assistance to Japan to both contain the emergency at the reactors and to address the wider contamination. We need to find a solution together,» it said.
Анализ агентства Reuters: Международные долговые рынки будут подвережены рискам,еще несколько месяцев,из-за последствий событий в Японии
Международные долговые рынки еще долго могут находиться в состоянии стресса из-за событий в Японии.Масштабы разрушений и необходимость восстановления, могут спровоцировать самый масштабный процесс репатриации японского капитала домой, за долгие годы.Это может привести к тому, что большой спрос на деньгие, может стать катализатором роста процентных ставок на долговых рынках, так как предложение денег начнет сжиматься.Прежде всего опасность еще и в том, что большой объем инвестиционных денег, которые японские инвесторы делали за пределами страны, начнет также сокращаться, хотя бы потому, что когда наступит срок погашения долговых бумаг со стороны иностранных правительств или корпораций, японские инвесторы могут просто изъять прибыль, а не реинвестировать в новые выпуски, как это оыбчно бывало.Оценивая масштабы инвестиционной активности за пределами Японии, не стоит забывать, что валютные резервы Японии составляют свыше триллиона долларов.и если рассуждать о деньгах, которые принадлежат государственным структурам Японии и негосударственным фондам, то по крайне мере, только за последний месяц, японские инвесторы имели «чистую длинную позицию» по американским активам, купив ценных бумаг на сумму в $ 25 миллиардов (имеется в виду разница между продажей и покупкой).Тоже самое касается и инвестиционной активности японцев в Европе.Тут как минимум, стоит вспомнить об участии Японии в приобретении долговых бумаг, которые эмитировал суверенный фонд Евросоюза.Что касается японских страховых фондов, то объем их инвестиций в зарубежные активы, составляет до 300 миллиардов долларов.По оценке Deutsche Bank, страховые компании Японии, могут изъять с рынка до $ 200 миллиардов долларов, если придется закрывать дыры на внутреннем японском рынке.
LONDON, March 15 (IFR) - International debt markets could be disrupted for many months ahead as a result of the Japanese earthquake, with companies across the globe facing a potential spike in borrowing costs as investors from the disaster-hit country pull their cash out of international markets to pay for reconstruction at home. Traders say that Japanese insurance companies and private investors alike have already begun to repatriate money, pushing up the yen by about 3% against the US dollar.
With hundreds of billions invested overseas, that is likely to roil markets and dramatically upset the supply of credit. «Japanese insurers have been major buyers and that's going to be a significant concern in the weeks ahead,» said Allegra Berman, global head of sovereign, supranational and agency fixed income at UBS in London. «As a result of the earthquake we're expecting some pullback.»
Although initially a Japanese exodus shouldn't prompt a sell-off in bond markets — risk-averse global investors are likely to remain heavy buyers of bonds in the near term — over the medium and long term, governments and companies alike may find it harder and more expensive to raise cash.
«The main problem for the markets will come over the next few weeks and months when [investors'] bond holdings mature and they don't look to reinvest,» Berman said. «Suddenly a large pool of demand for new issues — a whole investor base — just won't be there.» Japanese buyers are keystone investors for global debt markets. The country's foreign currency reserves at US$1.1trn are the world's second biggest behind China.
Billions more in assets are held by banks, insurance companies and private individuals, and invested on a global basis. Much of that cash has found its way into US Treasuries and European government bonds markets. In the last three months alone, Japanese investors have been net buyers on long-term US debt to the tune of US$25bn. In European markets figures are much harder to come by, but senior bankers say the investor base accounts for up to 30% of sovereign bond purchases and 15% of agency deals. Earlier this year 20% of all the money invested in the inaugural European Financial Stability Facility 5bn euros bond issue came from Japan.
Bankers say it's unlikely a future EFSF fund-raising would fail given the 45bn euros of interest in the inaugural deal, but the issue nonetheless indicates how central Japanese money has become to the global capital markets. The biggest concern to the markets remains Japanese insurers. According to Deutsche Bank estimates, the industry has about 20trn yen (US$247bn) invested overseas — mainly in US Treasury markets — with about 10% of that expected to be repatriated over the coming months.
«The biggest effect of this is going to be felt in the insurance industry which is going to have to bring back its assets from overseas to pay for reconstruction at home,» said Rich Herman, global head of institutional client sales at Deutsche Bank. However, he remains unconvinced that the switch out of sovereign markets will have a major effect on bond markets. «If our estimates are correct that about US$200bn will be pulled from markets, it pales in comparison to what the Federal Reserve is about to withdraw,» he said. «Japan's economy will take a hit, but the global effects will be more moderate.»
SPIKE IN FUNDING COSTS: That view is echoed by some in the insurance industry. According to Kenji Sakaguchi, chief investment offer at Prudential Investment Management Japan, firms will first sell their Japanese government bonds, the liquidity of which has been supported by the Bank of Japan. After that, they will turn to US holdings, but the selling pressure there is likely to be weaker than demand. «I think it will have a limited affect on that market due to its size,» he said. Still, Japanese investors have been a major source of financing for some niche areas of the market — not least European sovereign issues.
The Uridashi bond market too, where debt denominated in foreign currencies is sold to Japanese household investors, has recently provided US$25bn-US$50bn of financing a year for companies across the world. If that supply of cash were to disappear — and it is as yet unclear how much money Japanese retail investors will need to draw down their assets — then those companies will likely have to turn to other investors to finance their needs, creating higher demand for ever-scarcer money, pushing up yields. «It reduces the amount of capital available across a number of markets and is likely to mean issuers will suffer a spike in funding costs across the board as demand in certain markets evaporates and they are forced to pay up in others,» said Berman, who said that Australian companies in particular have been big Uridashi issuers.
Even if funding costs increase, however, an issuer's ability to raise cash will still depend on its fundamental story. «In the near-term, the cost of credit will likely remain higher as a result of what we've seen in Japan and as a more general move back towards risk aversion, or at least risk caution takes hold,» said Simon Ballard, a global credit strategist at RBC Capital Markets. «Away from Japan, sovereign and corporate credit fundamentals will remain the key drivers of risk asset pricing in the months ahead. The ongoing challenges posed by the sovereign debt situation together with those associated with an anaemic economic growth environment mean that individual issuer credit quality considerations remain key to investment strategy considerations.»
КИТАЙ ПРИОСТАНОВИЛ ЗАПУСК ВСЕХ НОВЫХ ЯДЕРНЫХ ПРОЕКТОВ НА СВОЕЙ ТЕРРИТОРИИ
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The Chinese government has suspended approval of new nuclear power plants until safety standards can be reviewed and revised in the wake of the ongoing nuclear crisis in Japan, according to media reports Wednesday. The State Council has also required relevant departments to conduct safety checks at existing plants, Xinhua News Agency said. China has 13 nuclear reactors in operation with at least 25 under construction and dozens more in planning, the Wall Street Journal reported
ЙОХАННЕСБУРГ - ВСЕМИРНЫЙ БАНК: ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЕ НАНЕСЛО СЕРЬЕЗНЫЙ УЩЕРБ ЭКОНОМИКЕ ЯПОНИИ, НО ЭТО НЕ ОЧЕНЬ СИЛЬНО ПОВЛИЯЛО НА ВВП
JOHANNESBURG, March 16 (Reuters) — The impact of recent natural disasters and the resulting nuclear crisis is unlikely to have a prolonged impact on Japan's economy, World Bank chief economist Justin Lin said on Wednesday. Lin told journalists at the University of Johannesburg that with reconstruction, Japan could increase its growth rate after six months.
ОБЪЕМ СТРАХОВЫХ ВОЗМЕЩЕНИЙ ПО ЯПОНСКОЙ КАТАСТРОФЕ,МОЖЕТ СОСТАВИТЬ ОТ $ 12 ДО $ 25 МЛЛРД.
Такую оценку по величине страховых выплат из-за японской трагедии, рассчитала консалтинговая фирма Eqecat.Это немного ниже, чем оценки другой консалтинговой конторы AIR Worldwide, которая оценивала размер страховых выплат от $ 15 до $ 35 миллиардов.
NEW YORK/LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) — Friday's earthquake in Japan caused insured losses of between $12 billion and $25 billion, making it one of the costliest natural disasters in history for global insurers, catastrophe risk modeling firm Eqecat said. Eqecat's Wednesday estimate — which includes the earthquake, the subsequent tsunami and a series of fires — is sharply lower than that of competitor AIR Worldwide, which estimated losses of $15 billion to $35 billion last weekend, excluding the effects of the tsunami.
The discrepancy points to the difficulty in assessing the disaster, which scientists say was much more intense than they had ever modeled for in that part of Japan. «This narrows the range and brings the top end down a bit (compared with AIR). It doesn't feel out of kilter with what we've been hearing,» said Joanna Parsons, insurance analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland in London. Insurance shares around the world have been under pressure for days, as skittish investors sell on the possibility that some insurers or reinsurers may have to cut share buybacks or raise capital to offset losses. S&P insurance shares fell 1.2 percent at midday trade, a smaller decline than the broader market.
The insurance index is down nearly 4 percent since the earthquake. The carriers considered most affected include MetLife, as well as top global reinsurers Swiss Re, Munich Re and Hannover Re.
NO HARD MARKET
Most analysts do not think the losses will be enough to stem years of price declines in the property insurance market. They say a much larger event would be necessary to create a so-called «hard» market where prices firm up. «Overall we expect pockets of price hardening as a result of the recent events but do not expect a broad hard market to result,» KBW analyst Cliff Gallant said in a note Wednesday, issued before the Eqecat estimate. «We view that the guessing game of who has the worst loss is hard to win.
Rather, we would take advantage of the volatility to buy quality companies with well-diversified books of business and strong balance sheets,» he said. The full extent of the destruction is slowly becoming clearer as rescuers comb through the tsunami-torn region north of Tokyo, where officials say at least 10,000 people were killed. Fears over the fate of the Fukushima nuclear reactors added to the scope of the disaster. While insurers have relatively little exposure to the property damage caused by the explosions and radiation releases at the reactors, there are still open questions about how life and disability insurers will be forced to deal with the injured in the years to come.
ВЛАДЕЛЬЦЫ КОРАБЛЕЙ ИЩУТ ВОЗМОЖНОСТЬ ПОДАЛЬШЕ ОТОЙТИ ОТ ЯПОНИИ ИЗ-ЗА УСЛИВАЮЩЕЙСЯ УГРОЗЫ РАДИОАКТИВНОГО ВЫБРОСА
LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) — A number of ship owners are considering avoiding high risk areas in Japan and could re-route their vessels due to fears over the potential spread of radiation, shipping sources said on Wednesday. Japan's nuclear crisis appeared to be spinning out of control after workers withdrew briefly from a stricken power plant because of surging radiation levels. Shipping sources said dry bulk vessels, carrying commodities such as grains and coal, as well as oil tankers, could move to avoid affected areas of Japan. «Some owners are definitely considering routing differently to avoid any potential radiation cloud, and passing that on to charterers (those looking to hire ships),» a shipping source said.
КАК МИНИМУМ, 9 КОРАБЛЕЙ НЕ МОГУТ ВЫГРУЗИТЬ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЕ ЗЕРНО В ПОРТАХ ЯПОНИИ ИЗ-ЗА ТЕХНИЧЕСКИХ ПРОБЛЕМ - КОМПАНИИ-СУДОВЛАДЕЛЬЦЫ
РАДИО СЕВЕРНОЙ АВСТРИИ - ПОСТРАДАВШИЕ ОТ ВЗРЫВОВ И ПОЖАРОВ РЕАКТОРЫ НА ФУКУСИМА-1 ВЫШЛИ ИЗ-ПОД КОНТРОЛЯ, УРОВЕНЬ ЗАРАЖЕНИЯ ПРЕВЫШАЕТ В ДЕСЯТКИ РАЗ
IAEA-Chef fliegt nach Japan: Situation „sehr ernst“ Der Chef der Internationalen Atomenergiebehörde (IAEA) in Wien, Yukiya Amano, hat die Situation in Fukushima I als „sehr ernst“ bezeichnet. Er werde so schnell wie möglich selbst nach Japan fliegen, sagte der Japaner heute in Wien. Er werde eine Nacht in Tokio verbringen, um dann zurück nach Wien zu reisen. Er wisse bis dato noch nicht, mit wem er sprechen wird, aber es sollen Kontakte auf „höchstem politischen Niveau“ sein. In Wien werde er nach seiner Rückkehr eine Sondersitzung des Gouverneursrats einberufen. Meldung schließen
Сайт радиостанции — http://noe.orf.at/
Ссылка на новость — http://news.orf.at/#/stories/2047948/
Ситуация на рынке энергоносителей.Запасы нефти выросли на 1.700 миллионов баррелей.
ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЕ БАНКИ ДОЛЖНЫ РАСКРЫТЬ СТРУКТУРУ СВОИХ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННЫХ И ТОРГОВЫХ ПОРТФЕЛЕЙ,В РАМКАХ СТРЕСС-ТЕСТА
Об этом говорится в черновом варианте проекта документа, который будет представлен на саммите Евросоюза 24 марта.Согласно этому черновому варианту, европейские банки обязаны раскрыть структуру своих портфелей, с точки зрения пакетов государственных долговых бумаг стран Еврозоны, которые имеются на торговых счетах и банковских балансах.Европейские страны должны принять решительные меры в случае.если после стресс-тестов для банков, понадобится проведение реструктуризации банковских институтов.Это предполагает наличие решительной стратегии для правительств.Стратегия возможной реструктуризации должна учитывать интересы частного капитала, как источник финансирования в случае продажи активов.
BRUSSELS, March 16 (Reuters) — European Union banks must disclose sovereign debt holdings on both their trading and banking books as part of stress tests, EU leaders will say at a summit on March 24-25, according to draft conclusions. «Banks' disclosure will be enhanced, including on sovereign debt holdings on the trading and banking book,» read the draft conclusions, obtained by Reuters.
«Member states will prepare, ahead of the publication of the results, specific and ambitious strategies for the restructuring of vulnerable institutions, including private sector solutions (direct financing to the market or asset sales) but also solid framework for the provision of government support in case of need,» the document reads. The aim of the stress tests is to restore confidence in the region's banking sector after last year's health check was widely criticised for lack of transparency and credibility.
Only seven banks failed last year's tests and needed to raise just 3.5 billion euros, far less than expected. All of Ireland's banks passed, yet months later Dublin needed an 85 billion euro bailout and all its lenders had to be rescued.
ПРЕДСТАВИТЕЛЬ ЕЦБ ГОСПОДИН LIIKANEN ГОВОРИТ:СЛИШКОМ РАНО ГОВОРИТЬ О РИСКАХ ДЛЯ ЕВРОПЫ ИЗ-ЗА ЯПОНИИ.
Об этом член ЕЦБ господин Liikanen завяил в интервью газете «The Wall Street Journal».По его словам, риски для экономики Еврозоны естественно существуют, но пока слишком рано судить о том, каким образом это отразится на экономике Европы.С точки зрения инфляционных рисков, господин Liikanen согласен со своими коллегами из ЕЦБ о том, что такие риски есть.Однако чиновник пока не видит четких признаков так называемого «вторичного эффекта» от роста цен.Более того, господин Liikanen полагает, что нет еще никакого решения по поводу того, что Европейский ЦБ начинает целую серию повышения процентных ставок.На данный момент, господин Liikanen считает, что уровень инфляции носит сдеражанный характер.
FRANKFURT, March 16 (Reuters) — It is still early to determine how the Japanese earthquake will affect the European Central Bank's decisions in coming months, Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen was quoted as saying on Wednesday. Asked about the impact of Japan, Liikanen told the Wall Street Journal: «It's just too early to say.»
He said that the ECB always looks at latest developments, but hinted it might take time to assess the full impact of the events in Japan. «We take decisions always based on the most recent information and data. It concerns the next meeting, maybe more so the meetings after,» he was quoted as saying in the interview, published on the Wall Street Journal's Internet site.
Liikanen, who also heads the Bank of Finland, said the inflation picture was still much the same as when the ECB signalled it might raise interest rates next month. «Fundamentally the situation is the same,» he told the newspaper. «There are upside risks to inflation, mainly due to the increase in commodity prices.» Liikanen also said the ECB had not decided about a series of interest rate increases.
Ирландский Центробанк заявляет:При проведении стресс-тестов для банков страны,будут использованы базовые экономические сценарии принятые Еврокоммиссией
DUBLIN, March 16 (Reuters) — Ireland's central bank said on Wednesday it was using the European Commission's growth forecasts as a baseline for stress testing its banks, figures that are weaker than Irish government forecasts. The European Commission predicts gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.9 percent this year — versus Dublin's forecast of 1.7 percent — and expects the economy to grow by 1.9 percent in 2012 and 2.5 percent in 2013. The central banks said that it would assume a fall of 1.6 percent in GDP this year, growth of 0.3 next year and a rise of 1.4 percent in 2013 in its adverse stress test scenario. New Irish finance minister Michael Noonan said this week he would be surprised if the 10 billion euro already set aside for recapitalisation of the banks would be sufficient in the light of stress tests to be published on March 31.
ШОЙБЛЕ (ГЕРМАНИЯ) ЗАЯВИЛ, ЧТО ЕВРОПЕЙСКОМУ ПОСТОЯННОМУ ФОНДУ СРОЧНОЙ ПОМОЩИ ПОТРЕБУЕТСЯ КАПИТАЛ В РАЗМЕРЕ МЕНЕЕ 100 МИЛЛИАРДОВ ЕВРО
GERMANY'S SCHAEUBLE SAYS EUROPEAN PERMANENT BAILOUT FUND SHOULD HAVE CAPITAL OF UNDER 100 BILLION EUROS, GERMANY TO PUT UP 28 PERCENT
BERLIN, March 16 (Reuters) — Europe's new permanent bailout fund should have paid-up capital of under 100 billion euros, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday.# Schaeuble told a news conference that Germany would put up 28 percent of the European Stability Mechanism's (ESM) capital. The ESM will replace the current European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) from 2013.
Индекс цен производителей в США вырос на 1.6% в феврале
Коммиссар по налогам Евросоюза говорит:Введение общей корпоративной налоговой базы,привлекательно для иностранных компаний
March 16 (Bloomberg) — European Taxation Commissioner Algirdas Semeta said the proposed common corporate tax base will make the EU more attractive for foreign companies.
European Union Taxation Commissioner Algirdas Semeta said the proposed common corporate tax base isn’t a step toward a common rate for business taxes across the EU.
“This is not a common tax rate, nor even is it a first step in that direction,” Semeta told reporters in Brussels today. Tax rates are “an issue of national sovereignty,” he said.
Евросоюз намерен ввести общую налоговую базу для компаний.
Европейские регуляторы намерены создать единую налоговую базу, для расчета прибыли компаний.Налоговая ставка для корпораций останется на усмотрение национальных правительств, но будет введене ориентировочная общая шкала.
March 16 (Bloomberg) — European Union regulators revived a push to create a common base for calculating the taxable profits of companies, recommending a system that would be optional for businesses in a bid to win over opponents including Ireland. The European Commission proposed a single method for calculating income to save companies the cost of complying with different rules in each EU country where they file a return.
Tax rates would remain in national hands under the draft law on a common consolidated corporate tax base, or CCCTB, which the commission says would save companies 700 million euros ($977 million) a year in compliance costs. “The CCCTB will make it easier, cheaper and more convenient to do business in the EU,” European Taxation Commissioner Algirdas Semeta said in a statement today in Brussels. The proposal by the commission, the EU’s regulatory arm, needs the support of all 27 national governments to become law. Ireland and the U.K. have for years blocked discussion of standard EU-wide tax rates, saying this policy area is a national responsibility.
The two countries have also opposed a common EU tax base, fearing it would open the door to harmonized rates. This past weekend, Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny failed to persuade fellow European leaders to cut interest rates on emergency loans for Ireland because he refused to pledge support for efforts to promote more tax-policy coordination in Europe. Ireland, keen to defend its 12.5 percent corporate tax rate — among the lowest in the EU — in November became the first nation to tap the euro area’s rescue system for countries with high budget deficits after Greece received a separate bailout.
Under the new draft EU law, companies would have the choice of consolidating all profits and losses across the bloc. The single consolidated tax return would be used to establish the tax base of the company, after which the EU nations in which the company is active would be entitled to tax at their own rate a portion of that base according to a formula linked to assets, labor and sales, the commission said. “This would all be done through the tax authorities of the company’s principal member state,” said the commission, which called it a “one-stop-shop system.” The CCCTB would save businesses 1.3 billion euros a year through consolidation, according to the commission. In addition, companies seeking cross-border expansion would save as much as 1 billion euros, it said.
ВЕРОЯТНОСТЬ РЕСТРУКТУРИЗАЦИИ ДОЛГОВ ГРЕЦИИ,НЕ ИСКЛЮЧЕНА
Такой смысл содержится в информации от агентства Reuters, которое ссылаясь на источники в правящей коалиции Германии, сообщает о запросе по этому поводу к главе суверенного фонда Еврозоны, господину Reggling.Глава фонда не исключил, что данная мера может быть потребуется, хотя в данный момент, господин Klaus Regling не может сказать ничего определенного.
BERLIN, March 16 (Reuters) — The head of the euro zone safety net for countries struggling with public finances has told German politicians that it was not yet possible to say whether whether Greece will have to restructure its debt. Sources from the ruling coalition said on Wednesday, after a parliament committee hearing with European Financial Stability Facility head Klaus Regling, that he told them the question of whether Greece would have to restructure cannot yet be answered.
ДЕНЕЖНЫЙ РЫНОК ЕВРОЗОНЫ:СПРОС НА КРЕДИТЫ ВЫРОС,УРОВЕНЬ ИЗБЫТОЧНЫХ РЕЗЕРВОВ СНИЗИЛСЯ
Всемирной рецессии не будет, если Токио не накроет радиация
ИНТЕРФАКС-АФИ — Последствия катастрофы в Японии, как экономические, так и гуманитарные, пока сложно предсказуемы. Однако немецкие эксперты в целом считают, что стихийные бедствия и ядерные проблемы в Японии не приведут к новому мировому кризису, если удастся избежать радиационного заражения столицы страны.
Как передает Deutsche Welle, германские аналитики в своих прогнозах практически едины: новой глобальной рецессии не будет. «Я не вижу опасности, что мировая экономика вновь сползет в рецессию», — заявил президент Федерального объединения торгово-промышленных палат Германии Ханс Хайнрих Дрифтман. Глава объединения немецких экспортеров BGA Антон Бернер убежден, что мировая экономика «отделается шрамом».
«Контролируемыми» считает последствия катастрофы и член экономического консультационного совета при правительстве Германии профессор Петер Бофингер. «У меня нет никаких оснований менять прогноз экономического роста Германии», — подчеркнул эксперт, добавив, что у Японии «относительно закрытое народное хозяйство» и ее доля в мировой торговле составляет всего 4,5%. Основную опасность ученый видит в том, что случившееся вызовет «психологический шок», как это произошло в сентябре 2008 года после «такого довольно незначительного события, как банкротство банка Lehman Brothers». Однако сегодня, по словам П.Бофингера, мировая экономика находится в более устойчивом состоянии, чем тогда.
Главный экономист Postbank Марко Баргель убежден, что нынешнее здоровье мировой экономики не подорвет даже временная эвакуация населения из японской столицы Токио, вызванная авариями на атомной электростанции «Фукусима». «Это не приведет к всемирному спаду и уж тем более к глобальной рецессии», — отметил он. Несколько осторожнее в своих прогнозах главный экономист Dekabank Ульрих Катер: «Если радиационному заражению подвергнется такой большой мегаполис, как Токио, то мы столкнемся с беспрецедентной ситуацией».
Поэтому немецкие эксперты пока предпочитают не углубляться в рассуждения о том, что будет, если токийский регион, обеспечивающий 20% валового внутреннего продукта Японии, из-за слишком высокого уровня радиации вдруг окажется на длительный период непригодным для жизни. П.Бофингер не сомневается в том, что события в Японии, где сейчас нарастает опасность ядерной катастрофы, приведут к частичному свертыванию мировой атомной энергетики. И это, в свою очередь, будет стимулировать рост цен на нефть, что неблагоприятно для мировой экономики. С ним полностью согласен его коллега из Киля, директор Института мировой экономики (IfW) Деннис Сноуэр. Он считает, что если сразу несколько стран откажутся от атомной энергии, то тогда вырастут цены на нефть и произойдет перелом на мировом энергетическом рынке.
ОПРОС НАРОДНОГО БАНКА КИТАЯ:УРОВЕНЬ ИНФЛЯЦИОННЫХ ОЖИДАНИЙ СРЕДИ ДОМОХОЗЙСТВ,СНИЗИЛСЯ
Это традиционный квартальный опрос, который Народный Банк Китая проводит уже нескольк лет.По результатам этого опроса, в 1 квартале 2011 года, количество потребителей, которые опасаются дальнейшего роста цен, сократилось.Сейчас уже 47.1% опрошенных домохозйств, опасается дальнейшего роста цен, это более чем на 14% ниже, чем в аналогичном опросе, который проводился в 4 квартале прошлого года.Количество потребителей, который довольны текущим уровнеи цен, возросло на 6.9%.Из опрошенных домохозяйств,31.6% ответили, что они находят текущий уровень цен, удовлетворительным.Иными словами, по результатам этого опроса, Народный Банк Китая, делает вывод, что уровень инфляционных ожиданий в стране, стал постепенно снижаться.
BEIJING, March 16 (Reuters) — More Chinese households are satisfied with current price levels and see less chance of rising inflation in the coming months, according to a central bank survey published on Wednesday.
The People's Bank of China, in a statement on its website, said that 31.6 percent of households in its first-quarter survey could tolerate current prices, up 6.9 percentage points from its previous survey.
It also said that 47.1 percent thought that prices would increase in the coming quarter, down 14.3 percentage points from the fourth quarter.
According to a survey of 3,000 bankers, 66.1 percent of respondents said that monetary policy would be tightened further in the coming quarter, 15.8 percentage points higher than in the last survey.
ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЙ ЦБ ИЗУЧАЕТ ВЛИЯНИЕ КРИЗИСА В ЯПОНИИ:МОЖЕТ ПЕРЕСМОТРЕТЬ ОТНОШЕНИЕ К ПОВЫШЕНИЮ ПРОЦЕНТНОЙ СТАВКИ
Об этом сообщает немецкое издание «Handelsblatt» ссылаясь на комментарии члена Совета Управляющих ЕЦБ, господина Christian Noyer.Чиновник сказал, что "… мы будет как обычно изучать новую информацию и это будет влиять на наш глобальный подход.." При этом, господин Noyer все еще опасается, что растущие цены на сырье могут привести к росту инфляционных ожиданий и спровоцировать так называемый «вторичный эффект» роста цен
FRANKFURT, March 16 (Reuters) — The European Central Bank will consider the impact of the Japan nuclear crisis and tsunami before it considers raising rates, Governing Council member Christian Noyer was quoted as saying on Wednesday.
Bank of France chief Noyer also said the ECB would sharpen its message to governments about the importance of fiscal discipline and maintaining competitiveness. «We will as usual take account of all new information and that will be part of our global assessment,» Noyer told German daily Handelsblatt after being asked whether the Japan crisis could influence decision making on rates at the ECB.
Events in Japan have prompted money markets to trim bets on the scale of interest rate tightening expected this year from the ECB and pricing for an April rise also looks less certain than it did in the aftermath of a policy meeting in early March.
Fellow ECB policymaker Ewald Nowotny said on Monday that The European Central Bank's «strong vigilance» message on tackling inflation — used previously to indicate the bank was about to move on rates — still applies despite added economic uncertainty after Japan's earthquake and unrest in North Africa.
Noyer said the ECB's current monetary policy stance supported the economy and would continue to do so also in the future.
But he added that rising oil and commodities prices could lead to further price hikes. «These second-round effects could increase inflation expectations,» Noyer said.
Noyer also said the ECB had consistently pushed governments to adopt sustainable public finances and foster competitiveness, adding that the sovereign debt crisis had shown that the ECB must be more aggressive in issuing warnings. «Every month the ECB president had presented reports to finance ministers, which showed that they were driving full-speed towards a wall,» Noyer said. «Maybe we have learnt that we must be even more direct.»
http://www.bloomberg.com/ (C) Источник
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TOKYO, March 16, Kyodo The Bank of Japan on Wednesday offered an additional 5.5 trillion yen ($68 billion) to money markets, bringing to 47.3 trillion yen the total emergency funds made available by the central bank to protect the nation's banking system from the negative impact of Friday's massive earthquake.
The BOJ immediately injected 3.5 trillion yen into the markets, where financial institutions lend short-term money to each other, as its emergency operation entered a third day. The bank said it will provide another 2 trillion yen on Friday against certain collateral. The series of moves are designed to help banks and other institutions in quake-hit areas raise necessary funds. ==Kyodo
АГЕНТСТВО MOODY S ПОНИЖАЕТ НА ДВЕ СТУПЕНИ,КРЕДИТНЫЙ РЕЙТИНГ ПОРТУГАЛИИ.ПРОГНОЗ "НЕГАТИВНЫЙ"
Снижение рейтинга, агентство обосновало тем, что Португалии скорее всего понадобятся средства на рекапитализацию банков.Также, по мнению Moody’s Investors Service, для правительства страны, будет слишком сложно добиться выполнения поставленных задач по сокращению бюджетного дефицита.Еще одними из рисков для стабильности экономики и финансовой системы Португалии,Moody’s Investors Service считает возможный рост процентной ставки со стороны ЕЦБ и перспективы дальнейшего роста цен на нефть.Оба упомянутых фактора, могут оказать очень негативное воздействие на экономику, с точки зрения дальнейшей устойчивости.
March 16 (Bloomberg) — Portugal’s long-term debt rating was cut two steps by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited a weaker growth outlook, risks to the government’s deficit- reduction plans and a possible need to recapitalize its banks. The rating was downgraded to A3, four steps from so-called junk status, according to an e-mailed statement from Moody’s yesterday, with the outlook on the grade “negative.
“The government faces significant challenges, not least a less supportive economic environment,” Moody’s said in its statement. Gross domestic product is expected to “decline this year and experience a weak recovery at best in 2012,” it said. Moody’s said its rating takes into account measures announced by Prime Minister Jose Socrates’s government last week and is driven by “ambitious” fiscal goals and “subdued” growth prospects.
It also said higher interest rates from the European Central Bank may compound the nation’s fiscal problem. Higher Rates “Rising inflationary pressures could lead to an increase in the ECB’s policy rate, which could aggravate the Portuguese government’s funding costs and put additional pressure on private-sector borrowing costs,” Moody’s said.
“Should oil prices rise further and remain high for over a long period, external imbalances would worsen, given Portugal’s dependence on imported energy.” noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.Df2YY8tSEo&pos=4
ИНДЕКС ОПЕРЕЖАЮЩИХ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ИНДИКАТОРОВ ПО КИТАЮ,ВЫРОС В ЯНВАРЕ НА 0.3%.
После того, как индекс опережающих индикаторов впервые за 3 года, упал в декабре, появились опасения, что темпы замедления экономики Китая, окажутся чуть сильнее, чем ожидалось.Тем не менее, январские данные от института Conference Board, показали, что пока тенденция спада, не стала очевидной.В январе, индекс опережающих индикаторов вырос до 155 пунктов, что на 0.3% превышает декабрьские показатели.
March 16 (Bloomberg) — An indicator of China’s economic outlook rebounded, easing concerns that the government’s campaign to curb inflation and asset bubbles may lead to a sudden slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy. The index rose 0.3 percent to 155 in January from the previous month, The Conference Board, a New York-based research organization said on its website today, citing preliminary data.
The indicator recorded the first decline since 2008 in December. Premier Wen Jiabao this week vowed to tame inflation he described as a tiger that “once set free will be very difficult to put back into its cage.” The central bank has imposed three increases in interest rates and five adjustments to banks’ reserve requirements since mid-October to rein in liquidity that’s fueling gains in housing and food costs that could threaten social stability. “Economic activity remains strong although there is some moderation in momentum,” Chang Jian, a Hong Kong-based economist with Barclays Capital said before today’s release. “Policymakers are now confronted with the task of striking a balance between sufficient tightening and overshooting.”
The Conference Board’s coincident economic index for China, a measure of current activity, increased 1.4 percent in January to 200.8, after gaining a revised 0.1 percent in December. Expectations Stable China grew 10.3 percent last year, overtaking Japan as the world’s second-biggest economy. The International Monetary Fund estimates the nation’s expansion may slow to 9.6 percent this year, more than twice as fast as the world as a whole. Consumer prices climbed 4.9 percent in January and February, exceeding government’s 4 percent target for this year. Prices of new homes rose in January from a year earlier in all but two of 70 cities monitored by the government, the statistics bureau reported last month. Inflation expectations are stable, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said last week.
Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley forecast consumer-price gains will accelerate to more than 5 percent, prompting further increases in interest rates and reserve requirement ratios. JPMorgan expects inflation this month to be 5.3 percent. Morgan Stanley estimates consumer prices will climb by more than 5.5 percent by June and expects the central bank to adjust interest rates twice in the first half of the year. Rates Delay Still, the “uncertainty” added to the global economic outlook by Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis may prompt officials to delay increases in interest rates and reserve requirements “on the margin,” Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting said in a March 14 note.
The six components of the leading index are loans by financial institutions, raw-material supplies, deliveries and new export orders information from the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, consumer expectations, and total floor space started. The central bank publishes the first two components and the statistics bureau releases the other four. Two of the six components contributed positively to the index in January, according to today’s statement. The Conference Board first published the index in May after four years of development and says it is designed to capture the outlook over the coming six months. The organization says that plotted back to 1986, the index has successfully signaled turning points in China’s economic cycle. noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOiod4XrTyzU&pos=5
СИТУАЦИЯ НА РЕАКТОРЕ № 1 АТОМНОЙ СТАНЦИИ FUKUSHIMA "ЗНАЧИТЕЛЬНО УХУДШИЛАСЬ"
По крайне мере такая информация содержится в отчет от американского Institute for Science and International Security, который был опубликован вечером во вторник.Институт аргументирует свои опасения тем, что после серии взрывов на реакторе станции Fukushima No. 1, существуют проблемы с отработанным ядерным топливом, которое хранится в бассейне.Эта катастрофа уже не может котироваться по шкале риска 4 (изначально, специалисты института градировали эту аварию, именно по 4 шкале) есть вероятность, что шкалу риска придеться поднять до 6, а вполне вероятно и 7 уровня (по этой шкале, градировали Чернобыльскую катастрофу)
WASHINGTON, March 15 (AP) — (Kyodo)”The situation at the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant in northeastern Japan «has worsened considerably,» the Institute for Science and International Security said in a statement released Tuesday.
Referring to fresh explosions that occurred earlier in the day at the site and problems in a pool storing spent nuclear fuel rods, the Washington-based think tank said, «This accident can no longer be viewed as a level 4 on the International Nuclear and Radiological Events scale that ranks events from 1 to 7.»
Noting that a level 4 incident involves «only local radiological consequences,» it said the ongoing crisis is «now closer to a level 6, and it may unfortunately reach a level 7» — a worst case scenario with extensive health and environmental consequences. «The international community should increase assistance to Japan to both contain the emergency at the reactors and to address the wider contamination. We need to find a solution together,» it said.
Анализ агентства Reuters: Международные долговые рынки будут подвережены рискам,еще несколько месяцев,из-за последствий событий в Японии
Международные долговые рынки еще долго могут находиться в состоянии стресса из-за событий в Японии.Масштабы разрушений и необходимость восстановления, могут спровоцировать самый масштабный процесс репатриации японского капитала домой, за долгие годы.Это может привести к тому, что большой спрос на деньгие, может стать катализатором роста процентных ставок на долговых рынках, так как предложение денег начнет сжиматься.Прежде всего опасность еще и в том, что большой объем инвестиционных денег, которые японские инвесторы делали за пределами страны, начнет также сокращаться, хотя бы потому, что когда наступит срок погашения долговых бумаг со стороны иностранных правительств или корпораций, японские инвесторы могут просто изъять прибыль, а не реинвестировать в новые выпуски, как это оыбчно бывало.Оценивая масштабы инвестиционной активности за пределами Японии, не стоит забывать, что валютные резервы Японии составляют свыше триллиона долларов.и если рассуждать о деньгах, которые принадлежат государственным структурам Японии и негосударственным фондам, то по крайне мере, только за последний месяц, японские инвесторы имели «чистую длинную позицию» по американским активам, купив ценных бумаг на сумму в $ 25 миллиардов (имеется в виду разница между продажей и покупкой).Тоже самое касается и инвестиционной активности японцев в Европе.Тут как минимум, стоит вспомнить об участии Японии в приобретении долговых бумаг, которые эмитировал суверенный фонд Евросоюза.Что касается японских страховых фондов, то объем их инвестиций в зарубежные активы, составляет до 300 миллиардов долларов.По оценке Deutsche Bank, страховые компании Японии, могут изъять с рынка до $ 200 миллиардов долларов, если придется закрывать дыры на внутреннем японском рынке.
LONDON, March 15 (IFR) - International debt markets could be disrupted for many months ahead as a result of the Japanese earthquake, with companies across the globe facing a potential spike in borrowing costs as investors from the disaster-hit country pull their cash out of international markets to pay for reconstruction at home. Traders say that Japanese insurance companies and private investors alike have already begun to repatriate money, pushing up the yen by about 3% against the US dollar.
With hundreds of billions invested overseas, that is likely to roil markets and dramatically upset the supply of credit. «Japanese insurers have been major buyers and that's going to be a significant concern in the weeks ahead,» said Allegra Berman, global head of sovereign, supranational and agency fixed income at UBS in London. «As a result of the earthquake we're expecting some pullback.»
Although initially a Japanese exodus shouldn't prompt a sell-off in bond markets — risk-averse global investors are likely to remain heavy buyers of bonds in the near term — over the medium and long term, governments and companies alike may find it harder and more expensive to raise cash.
«The main problem for the markets will come over the next few weeks and months when [investors'] bond holdings mature and they don't look to reinvest,» Berman said. «Suddenly a large pool of demand for new issues — a whole investor base — just won't be there.» Japanese buyers are keystone investors for global debt markets. The country's foreign currency reserves at US$1.1trn are the world's second biggest behind China.
Billions more in assets are held by banks, insurance companies and private individuals, and invested on a global basis. Much of that cash has found its way into US Treasuries and European government bonds markets. In the last three months alone, Japanese investors have been net buyers on long-term US debt to the tune of US$25bn. In European markets figures are much harder to come by, but senior bankers say the investor base accounts for up to 30% of sovereign bond purchases and 15% of agency deals. Earlier this year 20% of all the money invested in the inaugural European Financial Stability Facility 5bn euros bond issue came from Japan.
Bankers say it's unlikely a future EFSF fund-raising would fail given the 45bn euros of interest in the inaugural deal, but the issue nonetheless indicates how central Japanese money has become to the global capital markets. The biggest concern to the markets remains Japanese insurers. According to Deutsche Bank estimates, the industry has about 20trn yen (US$247bn) invested overseas — mainly in US Treasury markets — with about 10% of that expected to be repatriated over the coming months.
«The biggest effect of this is going to be felt in the insurance industry which is going to have to bring back its assets from overseas to pay for reconstruction at home,» said Rich Herman, global head of institutional client sales at Deutsche Bank. However, he remains unconvinced that the switch out of sovereign markets will have a major effect on bond markets. «If our estimates are correct that about US$200bn will be pulled from markets, it pales in comparison to what the Federal Reserve is about to withdraw,» he said. «Japan's economy will take a hit, but the global effects will be more moderate.»
SPIKE IN FUNDING COSTS: That view is echoed by some in the insurance industry. According to Kenji Sakaguchi, chief investment offer at Prudential Investment Management Japan, firms will first sell their Japanese government bonds, the liquidity of which has been supported by the Bank of Japan. After that, they will turn to US holdings, but the selling pressure there is likely to be weaker than demand. «I think it will have a limited affect on that market due to its size,» he said. Still, Japanese investors have been a major source of financing for some niche areas of the market — not least European sovereign issues.
The Uridashi bond market too, where debt denominated in foreign currencies is sold to Japanese household investors, has recently provided US$25bn-US$50bn of financing a year for companies across the world. If that supply of cash were to disappear — and it is as yet unclear how much money Japanese retail investors will need to draw down their assets — then those companies will likely have to turn to other investors to finance their needs, creating higher demand for ever-scarcer money, pushing up yields. «It reduces the amount of capital available across a number of markets and is likely to mean issuers will suffer a spike in funding costs across the board as demand in certain markets evaporates and they are forced to pay up in others,» said Berman, who said that Australian companies in particular have been big Uridashi issuers.
Even if funding costs increase, however, an issuer's ability to raise cash will still depend on its fundamental story. «In the near-term, the cost of credit will likely remain higher as a result of what we've seen in Japan and as a more general move back towards risk aversion, or at least risk caution takes hold,» said Simon Ballard, a global credit strategist at RBC Capital Markets. «Away from Japan, sovereign and corporate credit fundamentals will remain the key drivers of risk asset pricing in the months ahead. The ongoing challenges posed by the sovereign debt situation together with those associated with an anaemic economic growth environment mean that individual issuer credit quality considerations remain key to investment strategy considerations.»
КИТАЙ ПРИОСТАНОВИЛ ЗАПУСК ВСЕХ НОВЫХ ЯДЕРНЫХ ПРОЕКТОВ НА СВОЕЙ ТЕРРИТОРИИ
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The Chinese government has suspended approval of new nuclear power plants until safety standards can be reviewed and revised in the wake of the ongoing nuclear crisis in Japan, according to media reports Wednesday. The State Council has also required relevant departments to conduct safety checks at existing plants, Xinhua News Agency said. China has 13 nuclear reactors in operation with at least 25 under construction and dozens more in planning, the Wall Street Journal reported
ЙОХАННЕСБУРГ - ВСЕМИРНЫЙ БАНК: ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЕ НАНЕСЛО СЕРЬЕЗНЫЙ УЩЕРБ ЭКОНОМИКЕ ЯПОНИИ, НО ЭТО НЕ ОЧЕНЬ СИЛЬНО ПОВЛИЯЛО НА ВВП
JOHANNESBURG, March 16 (Reuters) — The impact of recent natural disasters and the resulting nuclear crisis is unlikely to have a prolonged impact on Japan's economy, World Bank chief economist Justin Lin said on Wednesday. Lin told journalists at the University of Johannesburg that with reconstruction, Japan could increase its growth rate after six months.
ОБЪЕМ СТРАХОВЫХ ВОЗМЕЩЕНИЙ ПО ЯПОНСКОЙ КАТАСТРОФЕ,МОЖЕТ СОСТАВИТЬ ОТ $ 12 ДО $ 25 МЛЛРД.
Такую оценку по величине страховых выплат из-за японской трагедии, рассчитала консалтинговая фирма Eqecat.Это немного ниже, чем оценки другой консалтинговой конторы AIR Worldwide, которая оценивала размер страховых выплат от $ 15 до $ 35 миллиардов.
NEW YORK/LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) — Friday's earthquake in Japan caused insured losses of between $12 billion and $25 billion, making it one of the costliest natural disasters in history for global insurers, catastrophe risk modeling firm Eqecat said. Eqecat's Wednesday estimate — which includes the earthquake, the subsequent tsunami and a series of fires — is sharply lower than that of competitor AIR Worldwide, which estimated losses of $15 billion to $35 billion last weekend, excluding the effects of the tsunami.
The discrepancy points to the difficulty in assessing the disaster, which scientists say was much more intense than they had ever modeled for in that part of Japan. «This narrows the range and brings the top end down a bit (compared with AIR). It doesn't feel out of kilter with what we've been hearing,» said Joanna Parsons, insurance analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland in London. Insurance shares around the world have been under pressure for days, as skittish investors sell on the possibility that some insurers or reinsurers may have to cut share buybacks or raise capital to offset losses. S&P insurance shares fell 1.2 percent at midday trade, a smaller decline than the broader market.
The insurance index is down nearly 4 percent since the earthquake. The carriers considered most affected include MetLife, as well as top global reinsurers Swiss Re, Munich Re and Hannover Re.
NO HARD MARKET
Most analysts do not think the losses will be enough to stem years of price declines in the property insurance market. They say a much larger event would be necessary to create a so-called «hard» market where prices firm up. «Overall we expect pockets of price hardening as a result of the recent events but do not expect a broad hard market to result,» KBW analyst Cliff Gallant said in a note Wednesday, issued before the Eqecat estimate. «We view that the guessing game of who has the worst loss is hard to win.
Rather, we would take advantage of the volatility to buy quality companies with well-diversified books of business and strong balance sheets,» he said. The full extent of the destruction is slowly becoming clearer as rescuers comb through the tsunami-torn region north of Tokyo, where officials say at least 10,000 people were killed. Fears over the fate of the Fukushima nuclear reactors added to the scope of the disaster. While insurers have relatively little exposure to the property damage caused by the explosions and radiation releases at the reactors, there are still open questions about how life and disability insurers will be forced to deal with the injured in the years to come.
ВЛАДЕЛЬЦЫ КОРАБЛЕЙ ИЩУТ ВОЗМОЖНОСТЬ ПОДАЛЬШЕ ОТОЙТИ ОТ ЯПОНИИ ИЗ-ЗА УСЛИВАЮЩЕЙСЯ УГРОЗЫ РАДИОАКТИВНОГО ВЫБРОСА
LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) — A number of ship owners are considering avoiding high risk areas in Japan and could re-route their vessels due to fears over the potential spread of radiation, shipping sources said on Wednesday. Japan's nuclear crisis appeared to be spinning out of control after workers withdrew briefly from a stricken power plant because of surging radiation levels. Shipping sources said dry bulk vessels, carrying commodities such as grains and coal, as well as oil tankers, could move to avoid affected areas of Japan. «Some owners are definitely considering routing differently to avoid any potential radiation cloud, and passing that on to charterers (those looking to hire ships),» a shipping source said.
КАК МИНИМУМ, 9 КОРАБЛЕЙ НЕ МОГУТ ВЫГРУЗИТЬ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЕ ЗЕРНО В ПОРТАХ ЯПОНИИ ИЗ-ЗА ТЕХНИЧЕСКИХ ПРОБЛЕМ - КОМПАНИИ-СУДОВЛАДЕЛЬЦЫ
РАДИО СЕВЕРНОЙ АВСТРИИ - ПОСТРАДАВШИЕ ОТ ВЗРЫВОВ И ПОЖАРОВ РЕАКТОРЫ НА ФУКУСИМА-1 ВЫШЛИ ИЗ-ПОД КОНТРОЛЯ, УРОВЕНЬ ЗАРАЖЕНИЯ ПРЕВЫШАЕТ В ДЕСЯТКИ РАЗ
IAEA-Chef fliegt nach Japan: Situation „sehr ernst“ Der Chef der Internationalen Atomenergiebehörde (IAEA) in Wien, Yukiya Amano, hat die Situation in Fukushima I als „sehr ernst“ bezeichnet. Er werde so schnell wie möglich selbst nach Japan fliegen, sagte der Japaner heute in Wien. Er werde eine Nacht in Tokio verbringen, um dann zurück nach Wien zu reisen. Er wisse bis dato noch nicht, mit wem er sprechen wird, aber es sollen Kontakte auf „höchstem politischen Niveau“ sein. In Wien werde er nach seiner Rückkehr eine Sondersitzung des Gouverneursrats einberufen. Meldung schließen
Сайт радиостанции — http://noe.orf.at/
Ссылка на новость — http://news.orf.at/#/stories/2047948/
Ситуация на рынке энергоносителей.Запасы нефти выросли на 1.700 миллионов баррелей.
ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЕ БАНКИ ДОЛЖНЫ РАСКРЫТЬ СТРУКТУРУ СВОИХ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННЫХ И ТОРГОВЫХ ПОРТФЕЛЕЙ,В РАМКАХ СТРЕСС-ТЕСТА
Об этом говорится в черновом варианте проекта документа, который будет представлен на саммите Евросоюза 24 марта.Согласно этому черновому варианту, европейские банки обязаны раскрыть структуру своих портфелей, с точки зрения пакетов государственных долговых бумаг стран Еврозоны, которые имеются на торговых счетах и банковских балансах.Европейские страны должны принять решительные меры в случае.если после стресс-тестов для банков, понадобится проведение реструктуризации банковских институтов.Это предполагает наличие решительной стратегии для правительств.Стратегия возможной реструктуризации должна учитывать интересы частного капитала, как источник финансирования в случае продажи активов.
BRUSSELS, March 16 (Reuters) — European Union banks must disclose sovereign debt holdings on both their trading and banking books as part of stress tests, EU leaders will say at a summit on March 24-25, according to draft conclusions. «Banks' disclosure will be enhanced, including on sovereign debt holdings on the trading and banking book,» read the draft conclusions, obtained by Reuters.
«Member states will prepare, ahead of the publication of the results, specific and ambitious strategies for the restructuring of vulnerable institutions, including private sector solutions (direct financing to the market or asset sales) but also solid framework for the provision of government support in case of need,» the document reads. The aim of the stress tests is to restore confidence in the region's banking sector after last year's health check was widely criticised for lack of transparency and credibility.
Only seven banks failed last year's tests and needed to raise just 3.5 billion euros, far less than expected. All of Ireland's banks passed, yet months later Dublin needed an 85 billion euro bailout and all its lenders had to be rescued.
ПРЕДСТАВИТЕЛЬ ЕЦБ ГОСПОДИН LIIKANEN ГОВОРИТ:СЛИШКОМ РАНО ГОВОРИТЬ О РИСКАХ ДЛЯ ЕВРОПЫ ИЗ-ЗА ЯПОНИИ.
Об этом член ЕЦБ господин Liikanen завяил в интервью газете «The Wall Street Journal».По его словам, риски для экономики Еврозоны естественно существуют, но пока слишком рано судить о том, каким образом это отразится на экономике Европы.С точки зрения инфляционных рисков, господин Liikanen согласен со своими коллегами из ЕЦБ о том, что такие риски есть.Однако чиновник пока не видит четких признаков так называемого «вторичного эффекта» от роста цен.Более того, господин Liikanen полагает, что нет еще никакого решения по поводу того, что Европейский ЦБ начинает целую серию повышения процентных ставок.На данный момент, господин Liikanen считает, что уровень инфляции носит сдеражанный характер.
FRANKFURT, March 16 (Reuters) — It is still early to determine how the Japanese earthquake will affect the European Central Bank's decisions in coming months, Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen was quoted as saying on Wednesday. Asked about the impact of Japan, Liikanen told the Wall Street Journal: «It's just too early to say.»
He said that the ECB always looks at latest developments, but hinted it might take time to assess the full impact of the events in Japan. «We take decisions always based on the most recent information and data. It concerns the next meeting, maybe more so the meetings after,» he was quoted as saying in the interview, published on the Wall Street Journal's Internet site.
Liikanen, who also heads the Bank of Finland, said the inflation picture was still much the same as when the ECB signalled it might raise interest rates next month. «Fundamentally the situation is the same,» he told the newspaper. «There are upside risks to inflation, mainly due to the increase in commodity prices.» Liikanen also said the ECB had not decided about a series of interest rate increases.
Ирландский Центробанк заявляет:При проведении стресс-тестов для банков страны,будут использованы базовые экономические сценарии принятые Еврокоммиссией
DUBLIN, March 16 (Reuters) — Ireland's central bank said on Wednesday it was using the European Commission's growth forecasts as a baseline for stress testing its banks, figures that are weaker than Irish government forecasts. The European Commission predicts gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.9 percent this year — versus Dublin's forecast of 1.7 percent — and expects the economy to grow by 1.9 percent in 2012 and 2.5 percent in 2013. The central banks said that it would assume a fall of 1.6 percent in GDP this year, growth of 0.3 next year and a rise of 1.4 percent in 2013 in its adverse stress test scenario. New Irish finance minister Michael Noonan said this week he would be surprised if the 10 billion euro already set aside for recapitalisation of the banks would be sufficient in the light of stress tests to be published on March 31.
ШОЙБЛЕ (ГЕРМАНИЯ) ЗАЯВИЛ, ЧТО ЕВРОПЕЙСКОМУ ПОСТОЯННОМУ ФОНДУ СРОЧНОЙ ПОМОЩИ ПОТРЕБУЕТСЯ КАПИТАЛ В РАЗМЕРЕ МЕНЕЕ 100 МИЛЛИАРДОВ ЕВРО
GERMANY'S SCHAEUBLE SAYS EUROPEAN PERMANENT BAILOUT FUND SHOULD HAVE CAPITAL OF UNDER 100 BILLION EUROS, GERMANY TO PUT UP 28 PERCENT
BERLIN, March 16 (Reuters) — Europe's new permanent bailout fund should have paid-up capital of under 100 billion euros, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday.# Schaeuble told a news conference that Germany would put up 28 percent of the European Stability Mechanism's (ESM) capital. The ESM will replace the current European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) from 2013.
Индекс цен производителей в США вырос на 1.6% в феврале
Коммиссар по налогам Евросоюза говорит:Введение общей корпоративной налоговой базы,привлекательно для иностранных компаний
March 16 (Bloomberg) — European Taxation Commissioner Algirdas Semeta said the proposed common corporate tax base will make the EU more attractive for foreign companies.
European Union Taxation Commissioner Algirdas Semeta said the proposed common corporate tax base isn’t a step toward a common rate for business taxes across the EU.
“This is not a common tax rate, nor even is it a first step in that direction,” Semeta told reporters in Brussels today. Tax rates are “an issue of national sovereignty,” he said.
Евросоюз намерен ввести общую налоговую базу для компаний.
Европейские регуляторы намерены создать единую налоговую базу, для расчета прибыли компаний.Налоговая ставка для корпораций останется на усмотрение национальных правительств, но будет введене ориентировочная общая шкала.
March 16 (Bloomberg) — European Union regulators revived a push to create a common base for calculating the taxable profits of companies, recommending a system that would be optional for businesses in a bid to win over opponents including Ireland. The European Commission proposed a single method for calculating income to save companies the cost of complying with different rules in each EU country where they file a return.
Tax rates would remain in national hands under the draft law on a common consolidated corporate tax base, or CCCTB, which the commission says would save companies 700 million euros ($977 million) a year in compliance costs. “The CCCTB will make it easier, cheaper and more convenient to do business in the EU,” European Taxation Commissioner Algirdas Semeta said in a statement today in Brussels. The proposal by the commission, the EU’s regulatory arm, needs the support of all 27 national governments to become law. Ireland and the U.K. have for years blocked discussion of standard EU-wide tax rates, saying this policy area is a national responsibility.
The two countries have also opposed a common EU tax base, fearing it would open the door to harmonized rates. This past weekend, Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny failed to persuade fellow European leaders to cut interest rates on emergency loans for Ireland because he refused to pledge support for efforts to promote more tax-policy coordination in Europe. Ireland, keen to defend its 12.5 percent corporate tax rate — among the lowest in the EU — in November became the first nation to tap the euro area’s rescue system for countries with high budget deficits after Greece received a separate bailout.
Under the new draft EU law, companies would have the choice of consolidating all profits and losses across the bloc. The single consolidated tax return would be used to establish the tax base of the company, after which the EU nations in which the company is active would be entitled to tax at their own rate a portion of that base according to a formula linked to assets, labor and sales, the commission said. “This would all be done through the tax authorities of the company’s principal member state,” said the commission, which called it a “one-stop-shop system.” The CCCTB would save businesses 1.3 billion euros a year through consolidation, according to the commission. In addition, companies seeking cross-border expansion would save as much as 1 billion euros, it said.
ВЕРОЯТНОСТЬ РЕСТРУКТУРИЗАЦИИ ДОЛГОВ ГРЕЦИИ,НЕ ИСКЛЮЧЕНА
Такой смысл содержится в информации от агентства Reuters, которое ссылаясь на источники в правящей коалиции Германии, сообщает о запросе по этому поводу к главе суверенного фонда Еврозоны, господину Reggling.Глава фонда не исключил, что данная мера может быть потребуется, хотя в данный момент, господин Klaus Regling не может сказать ничего определенного.
BERLIN, March 16 (Reuters) — The head of the euro zone safety net for countries struggling with public finances has told German politicians that it was not yet possible to say whether whether Greece will have to restructure its debt. Sources from the ruling coalition said on Wednesday, after a parliament committee hearing with European Financial Stability Facility head Klaus Regling, that he told them the question of whether Greece would have to restructure cannot yet be answered.
ДЕНЕЖНЫЙ РЫНОК ЕВРОЗОНЫ:СПРОС НА КРЕДИТЫ ВЫРОС,УРОВЕНЬ ИЗБЫТОЧНЫХ РЕЗЕРВОВ СНИЗИЛСЯ
Всемирной рецессии не будет, если Токио не накроет радиация
ИНТЕРФАКС-АФИ — Последствия катастрофы в Японии, как экономические, так и гуманитарные, пока сложно предсказуемы. Однако немецкие эксперты в целом считают, что стихийные бедствия и ядерные проблемы в Японии не приведут к новому мировому кризису, если удастся избежать радиационного заражения столицы страны.
Как передает Deutsche Welle, германские аналитики в своих прогнозах практически едины: новой глобальной рецессии не будет. «Я не вижу опасности, что мировая экономика вновь сползет в рецессию», — заявил президент Федерального объединения торгово-промышленных палат Германии Ханс Хайнрих Дрифтман. Глава объединения немецких экспортеров BGA Антон Бернер убежден, что мировая экономика «отделается шрамом».
«Контролируемыми» считает последствия катастрофы и член экономического консультационного совета при правительстве Германии профессор Петер Бофингер. «У меня нет никаких оснований менять прогноз экономического роста Германии», — подчеркнул эксперт, добавив, что у Японии «относительно закрытое народное хозяйство» и ее доля в мировой торговле составляет всего 4,5%. Основную опасность ученый видит в том, что случившееся вызовет «психологический шок», как это произошло в сентябре 2008 года после «такого довольно незначительного события, как банкротство банка Lehman Brothers». Однако сегодня, по словам П.Бофингера, мировая экономика находится в более устойчивом состоянии, чем тогда.
Главный экономист Postbank Марко Баргель убежден, что нынешнее здоровье мировой экономики не подорвет даже временная эвакуация населения из японской столицы Токио, вызванная авариями на атомной электростанции «Фукусима». «Это не приведет к всемирному спаду и уж тем более к глобальной рецессии», — отметил он. Несколько осторожнее в своих прогнозах главный экономист Dekabank Ульрих Катер: «Если радиационному заражению подвергнется такой большой мегаполис, как Токио, то мы столкнемся с беспрецедентной ситуацией».
Поэтому немецкие эксперты пока предпочитают не углубляться в рассуждения о том, что будет, если токийский регион, обеспечивающий 20% валового внутреннего продукта Японии, из-за слишком высокого уровня радиации вдруг окажется на длительный период непригодным для жизни. П.Бофингер не сомневается в том, что события в Японии, где сейчас нарастает опасность ядерной катастрофы, приведут к частичному свертыванию мировой атомной энергетики. И это, в свою очередь, будет стимулировать рост цен на нефть, что неблагоприятно для мировой экономики. С ним полностью согласен его коллега из Киля, директор Института мировой экономики (IfW) Деннис Сноуэр. Он считает, что если сразу несколько стран откажутся от атомной энергии, то тогда вырастут цены на нефть и произойдет перелом на мировом энергетическом рынке.
ОПРОС НАРОДНОГО БАНКА КИТАЯ:УРОВЕНЬ ИНФЛЯЦИОННЫХ ОЖИДАНИЙ СРЕДИ ДОМОХОЗЙСТВ,СНИЗИЛСЯ
Это традиционный квартальный опрос, который Народный Банк Китая проводит уже нескольк лет.По результатам этого опроса, в 1 квартале 2011 года, количество потребителей, которые опасаются дальнейшего роста цен, сократилось.Сейчас уже 47.1% опрошенных домохозйств, опасается дальнейшего роста цен, это более чем на 14% ниже, чем в аналогичном опросе, который проводился в 4 квартале прошлого года.Количество потребителей, который довольны текущим уровнеи цен, возросло на 6.9%.Из опрошенных домохозяйств,31.6% ответили, что они находят текущий уровень цен, удовлетворительным.Иными словами, по результатам этого опроса, Народный Банк Китая, делает вывод, что уровень инфляционных ожиданий в стране, стал постепенно снижаться.
BEIJING, March 16 (Reuters) — More Chinese households are satisfied with current price levels and see less chance of rising inflation in the coming months, according to a central bank survey published on Wednesday.
The People's Bank of China, in a statement on its website, said that 31.6 percent of households in its first-quarter survey could tolerate current prices, up 6.9 percentage points from its previous survey.
It also said that 47.1 percent thought that prices would increase in the coming quarter, down 14.3 percentage points from the fourth quarter.
According to a survey of 3,000 bankers, 66.1 percent of respondents said that monetary policy would be tightened further in the coming quarter, 15.8 percentage points higher than in the last survey.
ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЙ ЦБ ИЗУЧАЕТ ВЛИЯНИЕ КРИЗИСА В ЯПОНИИ:МОЖЕТ ПЕРЕСМОТРЕТЬ ОТНОШЕНИЕ К ПОВЫШЕНИЮ ПРОЦЕНТНОЙ СТАВКИ
Об этом сообщает немецкое издание «Handelsblatt» ссылаясь на комментарии члена Совета Управляющих ЕЦБ, господина Christian Noyer.Чиновник сказал, что "… мы будет как обычно изучать новую информацию и это будет влиять на наш глобальный подход.." При этом, господин Noyer все еще опасается, что растущие цены на сырье могут привести к росту инфляционных ожиданий и спровоцировать так называемый «вторичный эффект» роста цен
FRANKFURT, March 16 (Reuters) — The European Central Bank will consider the impact of the Japan nuclear crisis and tsunami before it considers raising rates, Governing Council member Christian Noyer was quoted as saying on Wednesday.
Bank of France chief Noyer also said the ECB would sharpen its message to governments about the importance of fiscal discipline and maintaining competitiveness. «We will as usual take account of all new information and that will be part of our global assessment,» Noyer told German daily Handelsblatt after being asked whether the Japan crisis could influence decision making on rates at the ECB.
Events in Japan have prompted money markets to trim bets on the scale of interest rate tightening expected this year from the ECB and pricing for an April rise also looks less certain than it did in the aftermath of a policy meeting in early March.
Fellow ECB policymaker Ewald Nowotny said on Monday that The European Central Bank's «strong vigilance» message on tackling inflation — used previously to indicate the bank was about to move on rates — still applies despite added economic uncertainty after Japan's earthquake and unrest in North Africa.
Noyer said the ECB's current monetary policy stance supported the economy and would continue to do so also in the future.
But he added that rising oil and commodities prices could lead to further price hikes. «These second-round effects could increase inflation expectations,» Noyer said.
Noyer also said the ECB had consistently pushed governments to adopt sustainable public finances and foster competitiveness, adding that the sovereign debt crisis had shown that the ECB must be more aggressive in issuing warnings. «Every month the ECB president had presented reports to finance ministers, which showed that they were driving full-speed towards a wall,» Noyer said. «Maybe we have learnt that we must be even more direct.»
http://www.bloomberg.com/ (C) Источник
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