БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: ВСЕМИРНЫЙ БАНК ПРОГНОЗИРУЕТ:ВОССТАНОВЛЕНИЯ ЯПОНИИ ЗАЙМЕТ 5 ЛЕТ,СТОИМОСТЬ ЗАТРАТ СОСТАВИТ ДО $ 235 МЛЛРД.

По оценке Всемирного Банка, на восстановление Японии понадобится около 5 лет.Аналитики World Bank ют свои основывают свои рассчеты на исторических аналогиях, когда другим странам требовалось в среднем именно такой период, чтобы восстановить инфраструктуру.Влияние природного катаклизма на экономику будет естественно негативным, что будет отрицательно влиять на темпы экономического роста, вплоть до середины 2011 года.Стоимость восстановления может занять от $ 122 до $ 235 миллиардов.

March 21 (Bloomberg) — The World Bank said it may take five years for Japan to rebuild after this month’s earthquake and tsunami, which killed at least 8,450 and destroyed thousands of buildings. “If history is any guide, real gross domestic product growth will be negatively affected through mid-2011,” the Washington-based lender’s staff said in a report today. “Growth should though pick up in subsequent quarters as reconstruction efforts, which could last five years, accelerate.” World Bank staff cited private estimates for the damage wrought at $122 billion to $235 billion.

The damper on gross domestic product will have a “modest short-term impact on the region,” with trade and investment flows disrupted, according to the report. The automotive and electronics industries are likely to be most affected, it added. Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s government plans to compile a supplementary budget to pay for reconstruction, which the finance minister said is unlikely to be unveiled by month- end. The central bank last week injected record one-day liquidity to maintain stability in the nation’s money markets, and authorities also led coordinated sales of yen with Group of Seven counterparts on March 18. The World Bank said that the 1995 Kobe earthquake and its aftermath may help gauge events following the magnitude-9 temblor on March 11 and the ensuing tsunami.

Liquidity injections by the Bank of Japan and appreciation in the yen as traders abandon the so-called carry trade amid speculation overseas funds will be repatriated for reconstruction are “combining to create downward pressure on bond yields,” according to the report. Yen Appreciation The carry trade refers to investors borrowing in yen and shifting the funds into higher-yielding currencies. Japan’s benchmark government bond yields are the world’s lowest. The yen appreciated to 76.36 per dollar on March 17, surpassing its post-World War II peak of 79.75 reached in April 1995. Yields on benchmark 10-year bonds touched a two-month low last week as the central bank said it will buy more government debt to lower borrowing costs. “A temporary growth slowdown in Japan will have a modest short-term impact on the region,” according to the World Bank report.

“Disruption to production networks, especially in automotive and electronics industries, could continue to pose problems. At this stage, it is unclear how the disaster will affect Japanese outward foreign direct investment, but it may dent the pace of overseas investment as the country’s focus turns inward on reconstruction.” Private Insurers Police said more than 8,400 people died and about 13,000 are still missing after the disaster, which triggered a nuclear crisis in Japan. “Private insurers are likely to bear a relatively small portion of the cost, leaving a substantial part to be borne by households and the government,” World Bank staff said in the report.

The cost to the insurers range from $14 billion to $33 billion, it said, citing an estimate by AIR World. A power shortage after the quake forced companies such as Sony Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. to halt production. South Korean firms are facing higher prices for memory chips, in part because Japan accounts for up to 36 percent of global production and that production is now disrupted, while Thai exporters of cars report that current supplies of components imported from Japan will last through April, the World Bank said. Debt Costs A rising yen may increase debt-servicing costs for East Asian nations, the lender said in the report, adding that about one-quarter of developing East Asia’s long-term debt is denominated in the Japanese currency, ranging from about 8 percent in China to about 60 percent in Thailand. “A one percent appreciation in the Japanese yen translates into a $250 million increase in annual debt servicing on yen- denominated liabilities held by East Asia’s developing countries,” the lender said.

Developing East Asia, which excludes Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and India, will expand 8.2 percent this year, World Bank staff said in the semiannual East Asia and Pacific Economic Update report today. The region grew 9.6 percent in 2010, it predicted. Policy makers across the East Asian region need to tighten monetary policy to keep inflation expectations from deteriorating, according to the report. Governments should also let their discretionary fiscal stimulus packages lapse, it said. Monetary Policy Asian central banks from China to Thailand and South Korea have tightened monetary policy this year as a jump in crude oil prices escalates the danger of inflation in a region that’s led the global economic rebound. Policy makers are juggling containing inflation and protecting growth as higher energy prices reduce consumers’ purchasing power and increase the costs of doing business.

“Evidence that price shocks are not temporary is now plentiful,” the World Bank staff said in the report. “Inflation has become the key short-run challenge for the authorities in the region, complicated by a surge in portfolio capital inflows and rapidly increasing food and commodity prices. Price shocks are affecting core inflation that could trigger a wage-price spiral.” Some Asian currencies and stock markets have surged in the past year as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing helped spur investments into the region’s assets, forcing policy makers to battle capital flows that risk forming into asset bubble. “Currency appreciation — especially with the pause since late 2010 — has not hampered the recovery, although exporters’ margins have been affected,” the World Bank said. “Exchange market intervention has limited the extent to which nominal exchange rates across the region have strengthened, but that has been largely offset by higher inflation.”

ПРАВИТЕЛЬСТВО ЯПОНИИ МОЖЕТ ОГРАНИЧИТЬ ИЛИ ВВЕСТИ ЗАПРЕТ НА ПРОИЗВОДСТВО АГРАРНОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ НА СЕВЕРОЗАПАДЕ ЯПОНИИ,ИЗ-ЗА ВОЗМОЖНОГО ЗАРАЖЕНИЯ ПОЧВЫ

Один из самых неприятных моментов катастрофы на станции Фукусима, это неопределенность по поводу возможного загрязнения радиацией не столько атмосферы, сколько прилегающей к зоне заражения, земельной почве.Это действительно довольно мрачный вариант развития событий, так как напрямую затрагивает сельское хозяйство страны.Судя по всему, последствия для почвы уже есть, и пока до конца неясно лишь одно.Каков объем загрязненных земель, на которых будет уже рискованно вести сельское хозяйство.Сегодня правительство Японии будет рассматривать решение о возможном ограничении или даже запрете на ведение аграрного бизнеса на северовостоке страны из-за возможного ущерба для почвы из-за радиационного загрязнения.Секретарь японского правительства, господин Yukio Edano, не исключил, что уровень радиации может оказаться выше нормы на тех землях, где выращивается шпинат и корма для крупного рогатого скота (что естественно может оказаться влинияе на продукцию молочных ферм) и поэтому правительство будет решать, что делать с производством на этих землях.

March 21 (Bloomberg) — Japan’s government will decide today whether to limit the sale of produce from the country’s northeast after some food from near a crippled nuclear plant was found to have elevated radiation levels. Spinach and milk samples were found to have higher-than- normal radiation “but not at levels harmful to human health,” Yukio Edano, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, said at a news briefing in Tokyo yesterday. “We’ll decide Monday whether we need to restrict intake in some areas and limit distribution.” Japan had some success cooling reactors at the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant, bringing two of the six reactors under control and connecting a second electric cable to the station, according to reports.

Asian nations are screening Japanese food imports, and Taiwan said yesterday it had detected radiation on vegetables from Japan that was within acceptable limits. Edano said higher-than-normal levels of radiation were found in milk in four different locations in Fukushima prefecture and in spinach in neighboring Ibaraki prefecture.

Edano didn’t provide details on the radiation levels found in the food in the two prefectures near the plant, saying only that no milk had been shipped from affected areas. He also didn’t specify what the government considered to be safe levels of radiation. Radiation levels detected in spinach were 12 times the regulatory limit, Kyodo News reported, citing an unidentified official from the Ibaraki prefecture. Water Monitoring Samples of tap water taken March 18 in Tokyo and five nearby prefectures showed traces of radiation that were within acceptable levels, the Japanese government said.

Edano said the government would “increase monitoring” of tap water and that so far “there’s no information that we need to take special measures.” In the absence of specific data on contamination levels, the supply of milk and food should be “frozen” from areas near the plant, Peter Burns, former chief executive officer of the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency, said in a phone interview from Melbourne. Based on the amount of nuclear fallout known to have been released from the plant so far, the risk to the population from radiation getting into the food supply is “several orders of magnitude below Chernobyl,” he said. Officials in Japan’s 47 prefectures have been asked to test agricultural products, seafood and drinking water for possible contamination to prevent tainted grains, milk, vegetables, meat and eggs from being consumed, Kumiko Tanaka, an official at the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, said March 18. Airborne Particles Ibaraki also produces cucumbers, tomatoes, onions, strawberries and pears.

Fukushima produces cucumbers, tomatoes and string beans. Airborne radioactive particles could have landed on spinach plants and been absorbed through the leaves, Burns said. Milk could have become contaminated within days as the time between a cow eating grass, digesting it and secreting milk is extremely short, he said. Taiwan detected “unharmful” levels of radioactivity on a shipment of fava beans from Japan, Shieh Der-Jhy, deputy minister of the Atomic Energy Council, said by phone yesterday.

The shipment was “within allowable levels” of radiation, Shieh said. Four shipments of vegetables imported from Japan in the past 24 hours were found to have “acceptable” levels of radiation by Hong Kong’s Food and Environmental Hygiene Department, Gabriel Leung, undersecretary for Food and Health in Hong Kong, told reporters yesterday. They didn’t include any spinach, he said. Assurances “We have received assurances from the consul-general from Japan that Japan wouldn’t allow the export of contaminated goods,” he said. “Those imports are foods we screen closely anyway.” Japan exported 481 billion yen ($6 billion) worth of food last year, accounting for 0.7 percent of total exports, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. In 2009, more than 70 percent of Japan’s food exports went to Hong Kong, the U.S., China, Taiwan and South Korea, according to the Japan External Trade Organization.

КТО ХОЧЕТ СТАТЬ МИЛИОНЕРОМ? - МНОГИЕ БРИТАНЦЫ УЖЕ ИМИ СТАЛИ

ЛОНДОН, 20.03.2011 (Reuters) – За последние два года число британских миллионеров выросло на 17% из-за восстановления финансовых активов состоятельного сословия в Соединенном Королевстве после кредитного кризиса 2008 года.

По данным Barclays Wealth в конце прошлого года было 619 000 миллионеров по сравнению с 528 000 в 2008 году.

До 2020 года число миллионеров, судя по всему, вырастет на треть и составит 826 000 человек. Эти результаты звучат диссонансом с масштабной экономической неуверенностью в Великобритании: ранее опубликованная официальная статистика по рынку труда показала рост безработицы к максимуму с января 1994 года

«Несмотря на сильнейшую в истории страны рецессию, результаты этого исследования красноречиво свидетельствуют о начале восстановления капиталов, и эта тенденция демонстрирует медленный, но стабильный рост», – сообщает Давид Семайя, Председатель Правления Barclays Wealth UK & Ireland Private Bank.

LONDON, March 20 (Reuters) — The number of millionaires living in Britain has risen by 17 percent over the last two years as the wealthy start to recover from the 2008 credit crisis, a survey revealed on Sunday.

Barclays Wealth said there were 619,000 millionaires — including property assets — currently living in the UK at the end of 2010, up from 528,000 in 2008.

It added that the number of millionaires in the UK would grow by a third by 2020, meaning that Britain would be home to 826,000 millionaires.

The findings provide a stark contrast to the broader UK economic uncertainty, where official statistics earlier this month showed that the number of Britons out of work had risen to its highest level since 1994 in January.

«Despite one of the deepest recessions ever experienced by this country, these findings indicate that wealth creation is starting to recover and this trend is set to continue at a steady pace,» said David Semaya, head of Barclays Wealth UK & Ireland Private Bank.

«Even with lingering uncertainty in this new economic landscape, there are indications that confidence is returning across the regions and that an improvement in investment conditions will be one factor encouraging entrepreneurs to look at how they can grow their businesses or restructure them,» he added.

(Reporting by Sudip Kar-Gupta; Editing by Alexander Smith)

В СЛУЧАЕ РАЗОБЩЕННОСТИ ДЕЙСТВИЙ СТРАН-ЧЛЕНОВ ОПЕК, ИХ СТАБИЛЬНОСТЬ ОКАЖЕТСЯ ПОД ВОПРОСОМ. - ЧРЕЗМЕРНОЕ ПРЕДЛОЖЕНИЕ НА НЕФТЯНОМ РЫНКЕ МОЖЕТ ОБЕРНУТЬСЯ ЦЕНОВЫМ КОЛЛАПСОМ. - ИРАН

ДУБАИ, 20.03.2011 (Reuters) – Стабильности стран, входящих в ОПЕК, угрожает ценовой коллапс, если страны однозначно не примут решения увеличить добычу, – предупреждает управляющий ОПЕК в Иране.
«С учетом нынешней рыночной ситуации члены ОПЕК должны действовать сообща, – сказал в своем интервью Мохаммад Али Хатиби. – Увеличение производства может показаться выгодным из-за роста цен, но в случае резкого обвала пострадают все страны в составе Организации».
В отчете ОПЕК за прошлый месяц суточный уровень добычи в феврале составил 110 000 баррелей/день, максимум с декабря 2008 года, когда члены группы решили максимально сократить добычу до 30,02 млн. баррелей из-за чрезмерной поставки из Саудовской Аравии.
С начала беспорядков в Ливии, добыча североафриканской нефти сократилась почти вдвое, а Саудовская Аравия пообещала восполнить нехватку на мировом рынке.

* Extra oil supply may cause price collapse-Iran official

* No call for an extraordinary OPEC meeting seen


By Amena Bakr

DUBAI, March 20 (Reuters) — OPEC's credibility is at risk and oil prices may collapse if members of the group unilaterally decide to increase output, Iran's OPEC governor warned. «Given the market situation, if every OPEC member decides to act of their own this would damage the credibility of OPEC and their own interest,» Mohammad Ali Khatibi said in a telephone interview on Sunday. «For now increasing production might be attractive because of the high oil price, but if the price collapses this will hurt individual countries as well as OPEC as a group,» he added. In its latest monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said February output rose 110,000 barrels per day (bpd), the highest level since December 2008 when the group agreed a record cut in output, to 30.02 million bpd due to extra supplies from Saudi Arabia. Since political unrest surfaced in OPEC-member Libya, more than halving the North African producer's oil output, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia had promised to meet any supply gap. The kingdom is now pumping around 9 million bpd and has a spare capacity of 3.5 million bpd

«ACT TOGETHER»

This year Iran's oil minister Massoud Mirkazemi is holding the rotating presidency of OPEC, and would be the one to call for an extraordinary meeting if needed. On Saturday, Mirkazemi advised OPEC members that boosting production without a group consensus would not help ease rising oil prices caused by unrest in Libya. «We are a group and if there is any need we have to act together. As Iran is president of the group this year we are reminding members that we need to act collectively,» Khatibi said. Nonetheless, Iran has favoured oil prices of $100 a barrel or higher as it grapples with major spending plans. In the coming week, UN-sanctioned aerial and naval attacks on Libyan air defence and ground forces over the weekend could see oil prices jump higher. On Friday, Brent crude closed at $113.93 a barrel, while U.S. crude closed at $101.42. [O/R] «On the long run if OPEC doesn't act as a group, individual countries and members of OPEC will end up losing revenues,» said Khatibi. Oil prices hit a record high above $147 a barrel in July 2008, but OPEC producers have fresh memories of how quickly they plunged from those levels to lows near $33 a barrel six months later as the global economy fell into a tailspin. For the time being a number of Gulf-OPEC members believe there is no need for an extraordinary meeting, Khatibi agreed. «As far as I know the market is well balanced and there is no sign of having an extraordinary meeting,» he said.

(Reporting by Amena Bakr; Editing by Humeyra Pamuk and Alexander Smith)

СОВМЕСТНАЯ ВАЛЮТНАЯ ИНТЕРВЕНЦИЯ G7 - ПРЕКРАСНЫЙ ПРИМЕР ТОГО, НА СКОЛЬКО УПРАВЛЯЕМЫМ ЯВЛЯЕТСЯ В НАСТОЯЩЕЕ ВРЕМЯ РЫНОК

Что делают правительства и центральные банки, если им не нравится, что происходит на финансовых рынках? Конечно же они проводят интервенции на финансовых рынках и манипулируют ими. В пятницу, центральные банки G7 провели согласованную интеревенцию на валютном рынке, чтобы сбить рост иены. Так почему же они это делают? Основные опасения связаны с тем, что рост иены повредит японскому экспорту в то время, когда он так нружен для восстановления экономики Японии. Именно с этой целью центральные банки провели валютные интервенции. Но ксожалению, это не единичный случай. Правда в том, что правительства, центральные банки и крупные финансовые институты постоянно манипулируют валютным рынком, рынком драгоценных металлов, фондовым рынком по всему миру. Всовременной глобальной экономике «ставки настолько высоки», что свободный рынок не может вызывать доверия. Реальность заключается в том, что ни один из финансовых рынков в действительности не является больше «свободным рынком». По крайней мере, на этот раз манипуляция была обнародована. Конечно было бы очень трудно скрыть тот факт, что центральные банки G7 одновременно провели интервенции на валютном рынке. В последний раз такая скоординированная интервенция была в 2000 году, когда центральные банки вмешались, чтобы остановить рост евро. Но правда в том, что отдельные центральные банки манипулируют валютным рынком все время. Некоторые из этих мероприятий стали известными. Cентябрь 2010 года - 12 миллиардов долларов потраченных Банком Японии чтобы ограничить рост иена, имели лишь ограниченный успех. Национальный Банк Швейцарии «потерял» около 15 миллиардов долларов, пытаясь остановить стремительный рост курса швейцарского франка. Многие страны по всему миру стали чрезвычайно чувствительными к изменению валютных курсов. Азиатские стран, которые, как известно, постоянно манипуляторуют курсами валют. Например, Сингапур, очень хорошо известен своими интервенциями на валютном рынке с целью защиты своих экспортеров. Но кто сейчас скажет «нет» Японии. Считается, что Япония попросила G7 это сделать, и они и это сделали...

What do governments and central banks do when they don't like what is happening in the financial markets? They directly intervene and they manipulate the financial markets of course. On Friday, the central banks of the G-7 acted in concert to drive down the value of the surging yen. So why did they do this? Well, the fear was that a rising yen would hurt Japanese exports at a time when the economy of Japan needs all of the help that it can get. So, as central banks have been doing with increasing frequency, they directly intervened in the Forex market in order to bring about the result that they desired. Unfortunately, this is not an isolated incident. The truth is that foreign governments, central banks and large financial institutions are constantly manipulating the Forex, precious metals and stock markets all over the globe. You see, in today's global economy the «stakes are so high» that the free market cannot be trusted.

The reality of the matter is that none of the financial markets are really «free markets» anymore. Not that they are completely rigged, but to say that they are very highly manipulated would not be a stretch.

At least this time the manipulation was made public. Of course it would have been really hard to hide the fact that all G-7 central banks intervened in the Forex on the same day.

The last time there was such a coordinated intervention in the global currency market was back in 2000 when central banks intervened to boost the struggling euro.

But the truth is that individual central banks attempt to manipulate the Forex all the time.

Some of these interventions become public. In September 2010, a bold 12 billion dollar move by the Bank of Japan to push down the value of the yen made headlines around the globe but had only limited success.

Another example of this from last year was when the Swiss National Bank experienced losses equivalent to about 15 billion dollars trying to stop the rapid rise of the Swiss franc.

Many nations around the world have become extremely sensitive to currency movements.

In particular, there are several Asian nations that are known to be constant currency manipulators. For example, Singapore is very well known for intervening in the foreign exchange market in order to benefit exporters.

And that is what this most recent intervention on behalf of the yen was all about. It was about making Japanese exports cheaper.

But who is going to say no to Japan right now? It is believed that Japan asked the G-7 to do this, and so they did.

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda told the media the following about this massive intervention in the marketplace by the G-7....

«Given yen moves after the tragic events that hit Japan, the United States, Britain, Canada and the European Central Bank have agreed with Japan to jointly intervene in the currency market.»

So isn't the Forex supposed to be a free market?

If you still believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.

According to Kathleen Brooks, the research director at a major Forex trading firm, it looks like there is a certain level that global authorities simply will not allow the yen to rise to....

«It looks as though global authorities are willing to pull out all of the stops to defend the 80.00 level in dollar/yen.»

The following is the full statement released by the G-7 defending their currency intervention....

Statement of G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors

March 18, 2011

We, the G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, discussed the recent dramatic events in Japan and were briefed by our Japanese colleagues on the current situation and the economic and financial response put in place by the authorities.

We express our solidarity with the Japanese people in these difficult times, our readiness to provide any needed cooperation and our confidence in the resilience of the Japanese economy and financial sector.

In response to recent movements in the exchange rate of the yen associated with the tragic events in Japan, and at the request of the Japanese authorities, the authorities of the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Central Bank will join with Japan, on March 18, 2011, in concerted intervention in exchange markets. As we have long stated, excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will monitor exchange markets closely and will cooperate as appropriate.

But it is not just foreign governments and central banks that manipulate financial markets.

If you want to try to make money on the Forex, you had really better know what you are doing, because most «little fish» get swallowed up and spit out.

A number of years ago I actually invested in the Forex and I rapidly learned that it is not a «clean game». I discovered that there are industry insiders that openly confess that several of the «big fish» in the industry brazenly «stop hunt» and regularly trade against the positions of their clients.

Not that stock markets around the globe are much better. It would take thousands of pages just to document the well known cases of stock manipulation and insider trading.

And don't get me started on the precious metals markets. As I have written about previously, very compelling evidence of manipulation in those markets has been handed to the U.S. government and they have essentially done next to nothing with that evidence.

Not that people don't make money in the financial markets. Some people make a ton of money. But those people are experts and they know how to survive in a «dirty game».

If you are an amateur, you really need to think twice before diving too deeply into the financial markets. If you think that you can jump into the Forex or the U.S. stock market and «get rich quick» you are in for a rude awakening.

The financial markets have become a game that is designed to funnel money to the «sharks» and to the «big boys». Once you put your money into the game, the odds are that «the house» is going to win.

For those that still do believe that the financial markets are a good way to build wealth, at least be prudent enough to get some sound financial advice. There is no shame in having a financial professional invest your money for you.

But it is no guarantee of success either. The truth is that millions of Americans have experienced a lot of pain in the financial markets over the last few years.

As the global economy becomes even more unstable, the manipulation of the financial markets by governments and by central banks is going to become even more dramatic.

As financial markets around the world crash and rise and crash again a whole lot of people are going to be wiped out financially.

You don't have to be one of them.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-g-7-forex-intervention-is-a-perfect-example-of-how-manipulated-the-global-currency-market-really-is

СЛЕДУЩИЙ НАГАСАКИ - СТЕРЖЕНЬ МИРОВОГО ЯДЕРНОГО СТРАХА

Происходящее частичное расплавление ядерного реактора Fukushima 1 — это Вторая Хиросима. Мы можем только надеяться, что возможные людские потери даже близко не приблизятся к цифрам от той первой в мире атомной катастрофы.

Международное сообщество волнует вопрос: Где будет следующий Нагасаки?

В США, где имеется 23 старых реактора, идентичных реактору Fukushima, а так же еще дюжина немного модернизированных реакторов?

Во Франции, самой ядерно-зависимой стране в мире?

Вероятно, что не в Германии или Венесуэле, которые сокращают свои ядерные программы, и не в Великобритании, мирового лидера в преобразовании энергии ветра. И даже не в Китае, a solar-energy paragon, который в настоящий момент проводит полную инвентаризацию своих планов относительно строительства новых ядерных установок.

Многих людей также волнует вопрос: Как может единственная страна, которая когда-либо испытала атомные бомбежки, стать настолько доверчивой к ядерной энергии? Ответ на этот вопрос одновременно и простой и сложный. В современной экономике энергия управляет машинами и переплетена с национальной безопасностью, внешней политикой и борьбой.

Вторая мировая война была в основном войной за полезные ископаемые(углеводороды). Япония, испытывающая энергетический голод, вторглась в Китай ради угля и в Индонезию из-за нефти. Блицкриг нацистской Германии был нацелен на месторождения нефти в Румынии, Ливии и в области Каспийского моря. Соединенные Штаты и Великобритания боролись со странами нацисткого блока, чтобы сохранить свой контроль над углеводородными ископаемыми в мире; и они(США и Великобритания) до сих пор делают то же самое в конфликтах со странами ОПЕК и попытках удерживать под контролем континентальный шельф Восточной Азии и Средней Азии.

Чтобы предотвратить повторение еще одной Тихоокеанской войны, Вашингтон попытался сделать все, чтобы послевоенная Япония уменьшила свою зависимость от угля и нефти. США «подтолкнули» Японию к принятию «безопасной и чистой» энергии будущего — ядерной энергии. General Electric и Westinghouse вскоре приступили к монтажу сети атомных электростанций по всему отсрову, в то время как Токио был введен в состав Международного агентства по атомной энергии (МАГАТЭ) и так же включен в Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия.

В отличие от традиционных топливных ресурсов, ядерная энергия была приоритетным правом собственности США. Американские лаборатории включая Лос-Аламос, Лоуренс Ливермор и Оукридж выпускали мировых специалистов физиков-ядерщиков.

В период опрометчивого безумного увлечения новой технологией, Нью-Йоркская Всемирная Выставка 1964-65 была дебютантным шаром для яркого «универсального» будущего, основанного на расщеплении атома. Павильон General Electric назвали «Progressland», мультимедийные шоу, показывали «плазменный взрыв», вызывая благоговейный страх у посетителей. Япония стала моделью международного в ядерной жнергетики под эгидой США. Разаработанная GE Fukushima была введена в эксплуатацию в 1971 году. Японская общественность тогда сопротивлялась современному мифу о безопаснти ядерной энергии. В последующие годы негатвиное отношение к ядерной энергии сошло на нет. Молодой проектировщик компьютерной графики в Токио сказал мне, что его поколение выросло, думая, что «TEPCO обладает богоподобной аурой непогрешимости и власти, больше чем правительства.»

The Next Nagasaki — Nuclear Fears Stalk The World. Threat to the American Public.

A second Hiroshima is happening with the partial meltdowns at Fukushima 1 nuclear reactors. We can only hope the eventual toll in lives comes nowhere near close to that of the world's first atomic catastrophe.

The international community is now asking: Where will be the next Nagasaki?

In the US with its 23 aging reactors of identical design as Fukushima's GE Mark 1 reactors, along with another dozen more of slightly modified design?

In France, the world's most nuclear-dependent country?

Probably not in Germany or Venezuela, which are cutting back their nuclear programs, nor Britain, the world leader in conversion to offshore wind power. Or even China, a solar-energy paragon now scaling back plans for new nuclear plants.

Many people are also wondering: How can the only nation that ever experienced atomic bombings become so trusting in nuclear energy? The answer is both simple and complicated. In the modern economy, the energy to run machines is intertwined with national security, foreign policy and warfare.

Uranium-based Progress

World War II was in essence a contest for fossil fuel. An energy-hungry Japan invaded China for its coal and Indonesia for oil reserves. Nazi Germany's blitzkriegs were aimed at oil fields in Romania, Libya and the Caspian Sea region. The United States and Britain fought the Axis Powers to retain their control over the world's fossil fuel, and they're still doing the same in conflicts with OPEC nations and to control Central Asia and East Asia's continental shelf.

To prevent the recurrence of another Pacific War, Washington tried to ween postwar Japan from its dependence on coal and oil. As Japanese industry revived by the time of the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, the US pushed Japan to adopt the «safe and clean» energy of the future — nuclear power. General Electric and Westinghouse were soon given charge of installing a network of nuclear power plants across the island nation, while Tokyo was inducted into the US-launched International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Unlike older fuel resources, nuclear power was the sole proprietary right of the US, which not only dominated uranium mining but also production of boron, the neutron absorbing mineral needed for controlled nuclear reactions.American labs including Los Alamos, Lawrence Livermore and Oakridge are the graduate schools for the world's nuclear physicists.

In the same period of heady infatuation with technology, the New York World's Fair of 1964-65 was a debutante ball for a brighter «universal» future based on atom-splitting. The General Electric pavilion was called «Progressland» with a multimedia show featuring a «plasma explosion» of plutonium fusion for awe-struck visitors. Japan served as the model of international citizenship and cooperation under the American aegis of atomic power.The Fukushima nuclear plant designed by GE was commissioned in 1971.

The modern myth of safe nuclear power was alternatively resisted and grudgingly accepted by the Japanese public. In more recent years, once negative perceptions toward nuclear provider Tokyo Electric Power company have shifted. A young computer-graphics designer in Tokyo told me that his generation grew up thinking «TEPCO has a god-like aura of infallibility and power greater than the government.» My experience as an editor inside the Japanese press reveals how its corporate image was cunningly promoted with «greenwash» commercials falsely claiming environmental-friendliness and hefty ad revenues for television and print media.

Atomic Energy in the Cold War

Japan was no stranger to atomic energy. During the Second World War, the Allies and the Axis competed for an exotic new energy source -uranium. While the Manhattan Project was secretly crafting the atomic bomb in New Mexico, Japan opened uranium mines in Konan, North Korea, which now are the source of Pyongyang's nuclear energy program.

Following the Allied victory, the Soviet Union aimed to break the American nuclear monopoly by establishing a protectorate called the Republic of East Turkestan in China's northwest province of Xinjiang. The rich uranium deposits near Burjin, in the foothills of the Altai mountains, provided the fissionable material for development of Soviet nuclear capability. The hastily dug Soviet mines left behind the curse of radiation disease for the predominantly Uyghur and ethnic Kazakh inhabitants as well as to downstream communities in eastern Kazakhstan. Kazakh and Chinese scientists have since run soil remediation projects, using isotope-gathering trees to cleanse the irradiated land.

To prevent the Soviets from amassing a nuclear arsenal, the Truman administration initiated a top-secret program to control the world's entire uranium supply. Operation Murray Hill focused on sabotaging the Altai mining operations. Douglas MacKiernan, operating under the cover of US vice consul in Urumchi, organized a covert team of anticommunist Russians and Kazakh guerrillas to bomb the Soviet mining facilities. Forced to flee toward Lhasa, MacKiernan was shot dead in case of mistaken identity by a Tibetan border guard and is honored as the CIA's first agent killed in action.

The covert global operations of Operation Murray Hill are carried on today by the CIA's counter-proliferation bureau. A glimpse into its clandestine operations is provided in «Fair Game», the book and movie about Valerie Plame, the agent exposed under the Bush administration. Battles open and covert against nuclear foes have been fought as far afield as Pakistan, Egypt, Libya, Argentina, Indonesia, Myanmar and Iraq as well as against usual suspects Iran and North Korea.

Threat to the American Public

The partial meltdowns at Fukushima 1 are putting Washington into a quandary. Had these radiation releases occurred in North Korea or Iran, Washington could have summoned UN Security Council sessions, demanded IAEA inspections and imposed tough sanctions and possibly military intervention. The meltdowns, however, are from American-designed reactors operating under protocols created by the US.

The Obama administration has, therefore, downplayed the seriousness of the current nuclear drama shaking its security ally Japan. In an unconvincing defensive tone, the American president has backed nuclear energy as part of «the energy mix» supporting the US economy. His pro-nuclear stance is irrational and irresponsible, when smaller allied countries including Britain, the Netherlands and Germany are making massive investments in offshore wind farms in the North Sea to end their dependency on nuclear and fossil fuels.

The international community is well aware of the double standard in policy. The US quietly applauded Israeli air strikes against Saddam Hussein's Osirak nuclear-energy plant in 1981 and has since demanded ever-stricter sanctions against Tehran and Pyongyang. Yet Washington refuses to lead by example, shrugging off the anti-nuclear movement's pleas to stop plans for new reactors and shunning calls from the citizens of Hiroshima and Nagasaki for total nuclear disarmament. America's campaign for an atomic monopoly, or at least nuclear dominance, is driving smaller powers toward obtaining a deterrence capability. These nations aren't some «axis of evil»; they're just playing the survival game by the rules — not the words — set by Washington.

In the days and months ahead, America's own citizens will be cringing from the dreaded arrival of radioactive fallout. Terrorism is now practically forgotten when a much wider threat may soon blanket American skies from «sea to shining sea.» Unless Washington moves rapidly toward repudiation of its own nuclear addiction, the specter of another Nagasaki will overshadow the land of the free and home of the brave.

Yoichi Shimatsu is Former Editor of The Japan Times Weekly http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23788

ВВС: ОПЕКУН ПО БАНКРОТСТВУ LEHMAN BROTHERS ПОДАЕТ СУДЕБНЫЙ ИСК ПРОТИВ CITIBANK

Доверительный управляющий, проводящий ликвидацию обанкротившегося американского инвестиционного банка Lehman Brothers, начинает судебное преследование Citibank с требованием возмещения наличными и активами общей стоимостью 1,3 млрд. долларов.

Мотивирующая часть иска касается депозита на сумму 1 миллиард долларов, требуемый Citibank в оплату за дальнейшую возможность валютообменных операций после официального объявления банкротства Lehman Brothers в 208 году. В Citibank требования считают «безосновательными и незаслуженными».

По материалам ВВС: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12793474

BLOOMBERG: С ПОМОЩЬЮ МОРСКОЙ ВОДЫ УДАЛОСЬ ОСТУДИТЬ РЕАКТОР №4, ПРОДОЛЖАЮТСЯ ПОПЫТКИ ПОДКЛЮЧИТЬ АВАРИЙНОЕ ЭЛЕКТРОСНАБЖЕНИЕ К РЕАКТОРАМ №1 И 2 НА АЭС ФУКУСИМА

Японским военным удалось снизить температуру на японском реакторе №4, дважды воспламенявшемся на этой неделе, с помощью морской воды. В то же время персонал ТЕРСО, владельца АЭС Фукусима, продолжают ранее не увенчавшиеся успехом попытки подключить аварийное электроснабжение к реакторам №1 и 2. Также проводятся работы на 3-м реакторе с целью выпуска радиоактивного пара, угрожающего поднять давление до критических отметок. Работы по спасению атомной электростанции Фукусима, пострадавшей от землетрясения и цунами продолжаются уже вторую неделю.

Подробности на официальном сайте Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-19/japan-s-tepco-seeks-to-restore-power-to-damaged-nuclear-plant.html

ПОКУПАЙТЕ ЯПОНИЮ И ПРИСМОТРИТЕСЬ К ЮЖНОЙ КОРЕЕ:МИЛЛИАРДЕР УОРРЕН БАФФЕТ ДАЕТ ИНВЕСТИДЕИ

Известный миллиардер и инвестор, господин Баффет, полагает, что катастрофа в Японии, которая спровоцировала падение стоимости финансовых активов в стране, создает предпосылки для инвестиций в акции японских компаний.По мнению господина Баффет,"… восстановление экономики займет какое-то время, но это не изменит экономического будущего Японии… если бы я имел акции японских компаний, то конечно не продавал бы их… такое экстраординарное событие… создает реальные возомжности для инвестиций...".Такие мысли господин Баффет выразил, находясь с визитом в Южной Корее, где находился с «инспекционной»поездкой на одно из предприятий страны, в которое миллиардер вложил деньги.

DAEGU, South Korea, March 21 (Reuters) — Billionaire investor Warren Buffett believes Japan's devastating earthquake is the kind of extraordinary event that creates a buying opportunity for shares in Japanese companies. Japan, the world's third-largest economy, has been battling to bring an overheating nuclear plant under control after it was battered by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that rattled global markets and prompted massive intervention in currency markets by the Group of Seven industrial nations.

«It will take some time to rebuild, but it will not change the economic future of Japan,» Buffett said on Monday on a visit to a South Korean factory run by a company owned by one of his funds. «If I owned Japanese stocks, I would certainly not be selling them. „Frequently, something out of the blue like this, an extraordinary event, really creates a buying opportunity. I have seen that happen in the United States, I have seen that happen around the world. I don't think Japan will be an exception,“ said the 80-year-old investor, dubbed the „Sage of Omaha“ for his successful long-term investment strategy.

Buffett heads Berkshire Hathaway Inc, which has substantial insurance and utility investments globally. Japan's Nikkei share average rose 2.7 percent on Friday, buoyed by the G7 support, but still ended the week down around 10 percent, with some $350 billion wiped off share values — the market's biggest weekly slide since the global financial crisis in 2008. Japanese markets were closed on Monday. Buffett said Berkshire Hathaway, which at the year-end was sitting on $38 billion of cash equivalent and last week bought U.S. specialty chemicals maker Lubrizol for $9 billion, was looking for more large-scale acquisitions anywhere in the world. In his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders last month, Buffett had said he was looking for more acquisitions. „The United States is most likely where we will do something,“ he said at a ground-breaking ceremony for a South Korean factory run by a unit of an Israeli firm owned by his investment vehicle. Buffett will have yet more money to invest after Goldman Sachs buys back $5 billion of its preferred stock from Berkshire Hathaway, which the fund bought at the height of the global financial crisis.

EYE ON KOREA

Buffett, ranked the world's third-richest man by Forbes this year, said he was also looking to buy entire businesses and large-cap shares in South Korea — where Berkshire is already a leading shareholder in steelmaker POSCO. He said geopolitical risks associated with North Korea had not curbed his interest in South Korea, Asia's fourth-largest economy. Berkshire also owns a stake in Chinese car and battery maker BYD. Buffett did not disclose any holdings in Japan on Monday, and Berkshire Hathaway's annual report did not show any major investments there.

He had been due to visit Japan later this week, but cancelled due to the earthquake. Unlike many foreign fund managers, Buffett, who arrived in the southeastern city of Daegu on Sunday by private jet, won plaudits from ordinary South Koreans. Sporting gray sweat pants and running shoes, Buffett was greeted by signs reading „Mr Buffett: Daegu Loves You“. Many in this country of nearly 50 million people have bad memories of the 1998 Asian financial crisis when a deal with the International Monetary Fund bailed out the country but at the cost of tens of thousands of jobs. Some U.S. hedge funds have been branded „vultures“ for buying South Korean assets on the cheap in the wake of that crisis. „It's a once in a life-time opportunity. I'm honoured to meet such a respected businessman,“ said Seo Hyun-joo, a housewife wearing Korean traditional dress. Buffett later meets South Korean President Lee Myung-bak in Seoul and heads to India on Tuesday to launch his firm's insurance selling portal.

МИНФИН США ОБЪЯВИЛ О ПРОДАЖЕ ВСЕГО ПОРТФЕЛЯ ИПОТЕЧНЫХ ЦЕННЫХ БУМАГ (MBS)

Минфин США планирует продать весь свой порфель ценных бумаг связанных с ипотечными кредитами и эмитированных федеральными агентствами Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac.Начало продаж будет в следующем месяцев и объем продаж ипотечных бумаг составит $ 10 миллиардов в месяц.Всего портфель Минфина составляет $ 142 миллиарда по текущей рыночной цене.Минфин в итоге получит прибыль от продажи этих бумаг от $15 до $ 20 миллиардов.Скорее всего, в качестве покупателей этого портфеля, смогут выступить американские банки, так как в любом случае, данные долговые бумаги, пока еще имеют гарантии правительства США.

Кроме этого, вполне возможно, что договоренность о приобретении бумаг MBS моежт быть частью негласного соглашения между правительством и банками, после того, как банки получили одобрение властей на повышение дивидендов по своим акциям и право обратного выкупа своих акций.Иными словами, вряд ли Минфин США, будет иметь какие-либо проблемы с реализацией своего портфеля на открытом рынке.

Реакция рынка долговых бумаг Минфина: цены упали, ставки доходности по всем выпускам стали расти

21 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Treasury Department plans to wind down its $142 billion portfolio of agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities by selling about $10 billion in holdings per month. The sales will start this month and be subject to market conditions, the department said today in a statement. “We will exit this investment at a gradual and orderly pace to maximize the recovery of taxpayer dollars and help protect the process of repair of the housing finance market,” Mary Miller, assistant secretary for financial markets, said in a statement.

The sales could raise as much as $15 billion to $20 billion in profit, a Treasury official told reporters. State Street Global Advisors, hired in 2008 to manage the MBS portfolio, will handle the sales, the department said.sanctions aimed at reining in Iran's nuclear fuel program earlier this year.

WASHINGTON, March 21 (Reuters) — The U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday it will begin selling $142 billion in agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities that it acquired in 2008 and 2009 amid the financial crisis. Starting this month, Treasury will sell about $10 billion a month out of its portfolio, which is made up primarily of 30-year fixed mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac .

НЫНЕШНИЙ ВЫСОКИЙ УРОВЕНЬ БЕЗРАБОТИЦЫ В США,НОСИТ ЦИКЛИЧЕСКИЙ,А НЕ СТРУКТУРНЫЙ ХАРАКТЕР:ТАК СЧИТАЮТ ЭКОНОМИСТЫ ФРБ САН-ФРАНЦИСКО

Такой вывод содержится в исследование сделанном экономистами Федерального Резервного Банка Сан-Франциско.Утверждается, что высокий уровень безработицы в США, носит скорее циклический, а не структурный характер, то есть не связан с кардинальными изменениями в экономике.

March 21 (Reuters) — The current high rate of unemployment in the United States is primarily due to cyclical factors, not structural changes in the economy, according to researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. The study runs counter to worries among some top Fed policymakers that undesirable upward pressure on wages, and thus inflation, could kick in even when unemployment remains relatively high — a situation that could have implications for U.S. monetary policy.

According to the research, recent college graduates are finding it just as hard to get work as other job seekers. Since college grads are among the best educated and most mobile in the labor force, their difficulty finding jobs suggests that it is labor market weakness as a whole, rather than mismatches between workers' skills and employees' needs, that is keeping would-be workers from getting jobs, the researchers said. Recent college grads are also unlikely to be motivated by the extension of unemployment insurance, often cited as a reason for the elevated unemployment rate in the labor force as a whole.

«The current unemployment rate trends are reminiscent of the 2001 recession and the subsequent jobless recovery that continued through 2004,» research advisor Bart Hobijn and research associates Colin Gardiner and Theodore Wiles said in the bank's latest Economic Letter. «This holds for both the overall unemployment rate and for those of recent college graduates, suggesting that structural factors are not quantitatively important in driving the overall unemployment rate, just as they were largely irrelevant after the 2001 recession,» they wrote.

Some U.S. central bank officials, including Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, have suggested that structural shifts in the economy since the Great Recession have pushed up the new «normal» for joblessness. A higher norm for U.S. unemployment means upward pressures on wages could start to build even when the jobless rate is quite high by historical standards. The San Francisco Fed research suggests that such concerns are remote. «Given the current weak labor market, we expect the labor market outcomes of the recent college graduate cohort to remain depressed well into the future,» the researchers said.

ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЙ ФОНД ESM СОСТАВИТ В ДЕНЕЖНОМ ВЫРАЖЕНИИ 620 МИЛЛИАРДОВ ЕВРО.

March 21 (Reuters) — The euro zone's permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, will be backed by paid-in and callable capital and offer loans more cheaply than the temporary facility does now, a euro zone source said. The ESM, which will have an effective lending capacity of 500 billion euros, will be backed by 80 billion euros of paid-in capital and 620 billion euros of callable capital, without any guarantees, the source said.

It will offer loans at funding costs plus 200 basis points for loans up to three years and plus another 100 basis points for loans longer than three years. There will be no service charge. The current bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), offers loans with a margin of 300 basis points for up to three years and 400 basis points over three years plus a one-off fee of 50 basis points. The decisions on the capital structure of the ESM and the pricing of its loans were taken at a meeting of European Union finance ministers on Monday, the source said.

ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЙ ЦБ НЕ ПРОВОДИЛ ВЫКУП ДОЛГОВЫХ БУМАГ НА ПРОШЛОЙ НЕДЕЛЕ

17:31 21Mar11 RTRS-ECB SAYS COMPLETED 0 MLN EUROS OF BOND PURCHASES UNDER SECURITIES MARKETS PROGRAMME IN WEEK TO MAR 18, VS 0 MLN PREVIOUS WEEK

17:31 21Mar11 RTRS-ECB SAYS TOTAL 77.5 BLN EUROS OF PURCHASES SETTLED UNDER BOND BUY PROGRAMME TO MAR 18, FROM 77.5 BLN PREVIOUS WEEK

17:31 21Mar11 RTRS-ECB SAYS TO HOLD TENDER ON MAR 22 FOR ONE-WEEK DEPOSITS TO ABSORB EXTRA LIQUIDITY

17:31 21Mar11 RTRS-ECB SAYS 170 MLN EUROS OF BONDS HELD UNDER BOND BUY PROGRAMME MATURED

ГЛАВА ЕЦБ,ГОСПОДИН ТРИШЕ ГОВОРИТ:РИСКИ ПО ИНФЛЯЦИИ ПОВЫШАТЕЛЬНЫЕ

BRUSSELS, March 21 (Reuters) — Following are highlights of European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's testimony to the European parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee on Monday.

ON ECB POLICY STANCE «I have nothing to add to what I said… on the occasion of our last monetary policy decision meeting.»

ON INFLATION «Inflation in the euro area is on the rise… This increase largely reflects higher commodity prices.» «In the view of the Governing Council as expressed on 3rd of March, risks to the price outlook are on the upside.» «In times past we successfully maintained price stability and avoided second round effects. We need to ensure that there are no second round effects in the current period. objectively speaking it's a demanding period.»

ON EURO ZONE ECONOMY «The underlying momentum of economic activity remains positive. Looking ahead, we expect the economy to further benefit from the ongoing recovery in the world economy, the very accomodative monetary policy stance and the measures adopted to improve the functioning of the financial system.»

ON E-BONDS «The ECB is not in favour of issuing such euro bonds. „It would remove the financial pressure in the short term and reduce incentives for sound fiscal policies.“

ПРОДАЖИ НА ВТОРИЧНОМ РЫНКЕ ЖИЛЬЯ В США В ФЕВ -9,6%. СРЕДНЯЯ ЦЕНА ЖИЛЬЯ В США -5,2% Г/Г

ПРАВИТЕЛЬСТВО ПОРТУГАЛИИ НЕ СМОЖЕТ ИЗБЕЖАТЬ ВНЕШНЕГО ФИНАНСИРОВАНИЯ,ЕСЛИ НЕ БУДЕТ ОДОБРЕН НОВЫЙ ПЛАН БЮДЖЕТНЫХ СОКРАЩЕНИЙ.

Об этом заявил министр по связям с парламентом, господин Jorge Lacao.Министр вероятно имел в виду, сегодняшний отказ оппозиционной партии Социал-Демократов, одобрить новый проект бюджета, предусматривающий новые сокращения расходов.В этом случае, предстоящее голосование в парламенте в среду, имеет все шансы провалится.

LISBON, March 21 (Reuters) — Portugal's government will keep trying to pass its latest austerity measures in parliament to avoid a bailout for the debt-ridden country, but failing that, the Prime Minister is likely to resign, a senior minister reiterated on Monday.

«That is, unfortunately, a possibility we cannot rule out, given the opposition parties' positions so far,» Parliament Affairs Minister Jorge Lacao told reporters when asked if the government would step down. He said the government remained open to negotiate a solution with the opposition.

Растущая премия за переработку европейского бензина,может спровоцировать экспорт топлива из США в Европу

К такому выводу пришли аналитики консалтинговой компании Petromatrix GmbH.Управляющий директор этой конторы, господин Olivier Jakob, полагает, что растущая премия за переработку нефти в Европе (в свете опережающего роста цен североморских сортов нефти) может поощрять американские НПЗ увеличивать поставки топлива в Европу.В результате, европейский рынок дизеля окажется под давлением из-за конкуренции с американскими поставщиками.Сейчас, так называемый " crack spread" (премия за переработку) составляет около 18 долларов и этом максимальный показатель за 2 года.

Динамика " crack spread" по бензину и дизелю

Запасы топлива в Европе

Запасы авиатоплива в Европе

March 21 (Bloomberg) — European gasoil’s rising premium to Brent crude may prompt U.S. refiners to export the fuel to Europe, potentially pressuring the European diesel market, according to Petromatrix GmbH. Gasoil’s premium to Brent, or crack spread, widened to more than $18 a barrel on March 16 on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange, the most in more than two years.

Gasoil and diesel are similar fuels, both known as middle distillates. “Improvement in the ICE gasoil crack should also increase arbitrage economics from the U.S. to Europe, which could be a further capping factor to physical premiums for European diesel,” Olivier Jakob, managing director of the Switzerland- based researcher, wrote in a report today. European diesel dropped last week as fuel is being removed from storage, Jakob wrote.

The April gasoil futures contract is trading higher than the May contract, reducing the incentive for an oil company or trader to store fuel. Gasoil futures for April delivery added $7.25, or 0.8 percent, to $977.75 a ton as of 11:44 a.m. local time. Jet fuel, also a middle distillate fuel, hasn’t dropped because the no-fly zone over Libya may increase air force demand for aviation fuel, Jakob wrote.

ОППОЗИЦИОННАЯ СОЦИАЛ-ДЕМОКРАТИЧЕСКАЯ ПАРТИЯ ПОРТУГАЛИИ ОТВЕРГЛА ПРИНЯТИЕ БЮДЖЕТА.ГОЛОСОВАНИЕ В ПАРЛАМЕНТЕ БУДЕТ В СРЕДУ.

Партия Social Democrats (PSD) сдержала слово и не стала поддерживать новый проект бюджета, в котором предусмотрены меры по дальнейшему сокращению расходов.Оппозиция отказалась от поддержки и теперь появились риски, что в среду, когда пройдет основное голосование по предложеным мерам бюджетных сокращений, будет не достаточно голосов и принятие проекта провалится.

LISBON, March 21 (Reuters) — Portugal's main opposition Social Democrats (PSD) again refused on Monday to back new government austerity measures, raising the risk the minority administration could fall after a vote later this week. The Socialist government will present its latest austerity plan to parliament on Monday with a vote expected on Wednesday. Prime Minister Jose Socrates has threatened to resign if the opposition fails to approve the austerity measures.

He says a rejection would exacerbate the country's crippling debt crisis and push it to follow Greece and Ireland in seeking a bailout. PSD leader Pedro Passos Coelho said after meeting Socrates his party backed the country's budget deficit goals as promised to Brussels, but not the newer government-proposed measures which he said were rushed and inadequate. «We reaffirmed that the measures presented by the government… do not deserve the support or approval of the PSD since they lay out a profoundly unfair path for the Portuguese,» Passos Coelho told reporters.

The party has withdrawn the backing for cost-cutting it had given to Socrates earlier in the euro debt crisis. «There are no conditions of trust for any talks to be resumed between the PSD and the government,» Passos Coelho said. Parliament has its first scheduled plenary session this week on Wednesday and is unlikely to discuss and vote on the package before then.

The government will present the plan, first announced on March 11, to parliamentary leaders later on Monday. Publico daily said Socrates and his ruling Socialists were still hoping to obtain support for the measures before Thursday's start of a key European summit expected to approve a beefed up euro zone rescue fund. «I'd say the government's fall is probable, though not inevitable, which shows there is very little room for negotiations,» said political scientist Antonio Costa Pinto.

«And the worst thing is that the model of a grand coalition seems more and more unlikely after this fallout, even for this period of the acute debt crisis,» he added. The timing of the vote would depend on whether and when one of the opposition parties presents a resolution on the package in parliament. The government needs opposition support to pass legislation as it rules without a majority in parliament. The extra spending cuts and tax changes it proposes are aimed at ensuring the budget deficit is brought down to 4.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2011, as promised to Brussels, from around 7 percent last year.

МИНФИН РОССИИ ДОБАВИЛ ДОЛГОВЫЕ БУМАГИ ИСПАНИИ В СПИСОК ИНВЕСТИЦИЙ В ФНБ

21 марта (Блумберг) — Министерство финансов РФ внесло долговые обязательства Испании в список активов, в которые могут инвестироваться средства Фонда национального благосостояния, следует из приказа, опубликованного сегоня на сайте Минфина.

ОПРОС СРЕДИ ДОМОХОЗЯЙСТВ БРИТАНИИ:РОСТ РЕАЛЬНЫХ ДОХОДОВ УПАЛ ДО РЕКОРДНЫХ ЗНАЧЕНИЙ

Речь идет о результатах опроса среди британских домохозяйств об ожидаемом росте доходов.Опрос проводил Institute for Fiscal Studies, и выяснилось, что за 2008-2011 гг. средний доход британского домохозяйства (до учета расходов на коммунальные и иные платежи) упал на 1.6% за рассматриваемый период.Таким образом, это самое большое падение реального уровня доходов с начала 80-х годов.Домохозяйства указали на уровень реального дохода в размере 360 фунтов, именно такими темпами был отмечен рост доходов в промежутке с 2008 по 2011 год.

21 (Bloomberg) — U.K. households saw real incomes fall 360 pounds ($585) annually from 2008 to 2011 in the largest three-year decline since the early 1980s, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said. The median British household income before housing costs dropped by 1.6 percent over the period as the deepest recession since World War II raised unemployment and hurt earnings, the London-based IFS estimated in a report published on its website today.

As average incomes have risen by an average 1.6 percent a year since 1961, households are about 6 percent worse off than if the recession hadn’t happened, the IFS said. U.K. consumer confidence fell to a record low in February as Britons grew more pessimistic about the sustainability of the economic recovery and the outlook for jobs, Nationwide Building Society said last week. Further tax rises and cuts to benefits announced by the government to tackle the budget deficit may crimp incomes further, the author, James Browne, wrote in the IFS study.

“Looking forward beyond 2011-12, it is likely that household incomes will remain stagnant for some time to come,” Browne said. “Our best estimate is that incomes in 2013-14 will still be below those in 2008-09 and this will be the biggest drop over a five-year period since the five years from 1972 to 1977.” In a separate report, Markit Economics said today Britons’ finances are deteriorating at the fastest pace since March 2009 as price increases for goods and services hurt household spending power and government workers brace for job cuts.

A gauge of household finances was at 35.2 this month, compared with a reading of 35.6 in February, a survey of about 1,500 Britons by Ipsos MORI for Markit between March 9 and March 14 showed. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. Markit began the monthly study in February 2009. The outlook for household finances over the next year deteriorated, with 50 percent of respondents expressing pessimism, compared with 18 percent holding optimistic views, Markit said. The IFS report received funding by the British Broadcasting Corp.

АНАЛИЗ ОТ REUTERS:ЕСТЬ ЛИ ЛИМИТ У НАРОДНОГО БАНКА КИТАЯ НА ДАЛЬНЕЙШЕЕ ПОВЫШЕНИЕ НОРМАТИВА ПО РЕЗЕРВАМ ДЛЯ БАНКОВ?

BEIJING, March 21 (Reuters) — With little fanfare on Friday, China set a new record, forcing the country's big banks to lock up 20 percent of their deposits as reserves. That level — inconceivable in developed economies — is probably not the ceiling. But just how high can it go? Up to 30 percent? Or 50 percent?

ПЕКИН, 21 мар (Рейтер) — Без особых прелюдий и помпезных заявлений Центробанк Китая в пятницу в очередной раз увеличил норматив резервирования для банков, обязав крупные кредитные организации перевести 20 процентов общей суммы вкладов в резервы Такой уровень, немыслимый для развитых экономик, вероятно, далеко не предел для Китая.

Однако, как высоко может вырасти норма резервирования? До тридцати, пятидесяти процентов? Ответ может появиться после того, как станет ясно, какое влияние на экономику оказывает этот инструмент ужесточения денежно-кредитной политики. То, что казалось довольно эффективным способом борьбы с инфляцией, может слишком туго затянуть пояс банковской системы. «Немногие банки имеют дополнительные средства, которые можно было бы перевести в резервы. У малых банков дела обстоят еще хуже», — сказал Лю Сюйшэн, топ-менеджер одного из некрупных банков в Пекине, пожелавший не называть банк.

«Если Центробанк продолжит увеличивать нормы резервирования, доходы банков значительно пострадают», — сказал Лю. Основной причиной инфляции в Китае является сильнейший поток денег, наводнивших экономику за счет растущего в последние годы профицита внешней торговли. Повышение норм резервирования — это прямой путь контролировать избыток денег, ограничивая лимит кредитования для банков и тем самым замедляя рост денежной массы. Народный банк Китая увеличивал нормы резервирования для банков шесть раз с ноября 2010 года, и только дважды за это время поднимал ключевую ставку.

В целом меры были эффективны. В ноябре 2010 года инфляция в КНР достигла 28-месяного максимума на уровне 5,1 процента, и с тех пор оставалась в пределах этого показателя. «Нормы резервирования стали обычным инструментом для Центробанка Китая в борьбе с излишней ликвидностью, отчасти отбросив необходимость выпуска дополнительных облигаций», — полагают Юй Сун и Хелен Цяо, экономисты Goldman Sachs. Выгода от увеличения норм резервирования вместо операций на открытом рынке очевидна для ЦБ — Народный банк Китая выплачивает 1,62 процента в год по резервам по сравнению с 3 процентами по однолетним облигациям. Увеличение норм резервирования также предпочтительнее по сравнению с повышением ключевой ставки. Оно является прямым инструментом для устранения излишков ликвидности, ускоряющих инфляцию, и в отличие от повышения процентных ставок, не отягощают местные администрации дополнительными выплатами.

ПЕРЕВЕСТИ СТРЕЛКИ Тем не менее, политика Центробанка сказывается на сокращении доходов коммерческих банков. Если нормы резервирования вырастут еще больше, кредиторы пострадают из-за сокращения прибыли и сложностей с привлечением финансирования. Банки могут выдавать в кредит до 75 процентов своей депозитной базы, и многие аналитики полагают, что нормы резервирования на уровне 23 процентов являются пределом для нормальной работы многих банков. По мнению аналитика Mirae Asset Securities Стенли Ли, каждое повышение нормы на 50 базисных пунктов сокращает доходы банков на половину процентного пункта.

Вдобавок к проблемам кредитования, некоторые банки испытывают головную боль, связанную с привлечением финансированием. Избыточные резервы, копившиеся банками в ЦБ в ожидании увеличения норм резервирования, сократились после нескольких повышений этого норматива в течение последнего года. Со временем банкам придется распродавать вложения в облигации, чтобы привлечь средства для соответствия нормам резервирования, говорят банкиры. Главы китайских банков тихо заявили о своем недовольстве. По словам президента Bank of China Ли Лихуэйя, еще немного, и увеличивать нормы резервирования будет некуда. Маленьким банкам приходится еще хуже, сказал Чжу Сун, старший трейдер Bank of Communications: «Соотношение суммы ссуд к депозитам у них относительно высокое и от этого они пострадают больше всего».

ОТВЕТСВЕННОСТЬ НА БАНКАХ Впрочем, далеко не все уверены в том, что Пекину стоит притормозить с увеличением норм резервирования для защиты банков.

По словам Энди Брауна, главы отдела азиатских исследований UBS, направленная против излишне активных банков система увеличения норм резервирования означает, что нормативы можно повышать и без сокращения доходов всех участников системы.

Он так же добавил, что для банков, которые выдают особенно много кредитов, норма резервирования может вырасти и до более чем 25 процентов. Некоторые, напротив, отмечают, что правительство помогает банкам, контролируя выдачу кредитов и ставки по депозитам, гарантируя чистую процентную маржу на уровне примерно 3 процентов, что стимулирует прибыли.

«Если вы получаете выгоду от монетарной политики, будьте готовы брать на себя ответственность, если политика ужесточится», — сказал бывший советник Центробанка Фань Ган. Несмотря на то, что китайские нормы резервирования — одни из самых высоких в мире на данный момент, другие страны поднимали их еще выше в прошлом. Например, Южная Корея в 1980-90 годах держала нормы резервирования на уровне в 30 процентов, отмечает UBS. По словам Стенли Ли из Mirae, китайские банки в этом плане уникальны, так как более 90 процентов средств они берут из депозитов.

Если они не смогут увеличить объем депозитов, а на данный момент это сложная задача, так как реальные процентные ставки находятся в отрицательном диапазоне, то Китай приблизится к пределу для увеличения норм резервирования. Тем не менее, многие аналитики говорят, что самой важной целью повышения нормы резервирования является борьба с излишками денег в экономике, с чем данный норматив отлично справляется. «Конечно, увеличение норм резервирования может иметь негативные последствия для прибыли банков, но у Центробанка сейчас есть задачи поважнее, а именно — борьба с инфляцией», — сказал Сунь Мяолин, аналитик из CICC в Пекине. «В прошлом государство помогало банкам бороться с „плохими“ займами, теперь настала очередь банков сделать что-то для государства».

The answer may lie in the distortions that this monetary tightening tool is beginning to impose on the economy.

What has been a fairly effective way of taming inflation is, bit by bit, taking a toll on the banking sector. «Few banks have extra money on hand to put at the central bank as reserves. The situation is even worse for smaller banks,» said Liu Xusheng, a senior executive at a medium-sized bank in Beijing. «If the central bank keeps tightening reserve requirements, it will really squeeze bank earnings,» said Liu, who spoke on condition that his firm's name not be given.

At the root of China's rising prices is the vast amount of money that has streamed into the economy from a gaping trade surplus in recent years. Reserve requirements are a direct way of ring-fencing that excess cash, keeping banks from lending out a large chunk of it and thereby slowing money growth. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased required reserves six times since November and interest rates only twice during that time. This approach has been effective.

Inflation hit a 28-month high of 5.1 percent in the year to November and has since been contained below that. «The RRR (reserve requirement ratio) has become a part of the regular tools used by the PBOC to absorb liquidity, to a certain extent in replacement of central bank bill issuance,» Yu Song and Helen Qiao, economists at Goldman Sachs, said in a research note. The advantages are clear for the central bank in opting for reserve increases instead of open-market operations. It pays just 1.62 percent per year on required reserves, compared with about 3 percent on one-year bills. Reserve requirements are also seen as preferable to interest rates. They are a more direct tool for mopping up the liquidity that has been driving inflation and, unlike interest rates, do not add to the repayment burdens of indebted local governments.

PASSING THE BUCK Yet the central bank's choice of policy translates into weaker earnings for commercial banks. Lenders will suffer profit and funding squeezes if reserves go much higher. With banks allowed to lend up to 75 percent of their deposit base and bonds forming another slice of assets, many analysts see a 23 percent required reserve ratio as a rough threshold beyond which their operations will be seriously crimped. Stanley Li, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities, estimated that every 50-basis-point increase in the reserve ratio shaves half a percentage point off banks' profits.

On top of dimmer lending prospects, some banks also face a funding headache. Excess reserves kept at the central bank in anticipation of reserve ratio increases have fallen after the string of required reserve increases over the past year. In time banks will need to sell their bond holdings to raise the money they need to meet reserve guidelines, bankers said. «That is like forcing banks to tear down the east wall to repair the west wall. It will increase risks in the banking system,» said Liu, the banker in Beijing. Quietly, Chinese bank executives have made their displeasure known.

Bank of China President Li Lihui said this month that there was little room left for reserve requirement increases. Smaller banks are particularly vulnerable, said Zhu Song, a senior trader at the Bank of Communications. «They often have relatively high loan-to-deposit ratios and will be hurt most,» he said.

«SHOULDER YOUR RESPONSIBILITY» Nevertheless, not everyone is convinced that Beijing needs to go easier on reserve requirements to protect banks. Its targetted system of slapping higher ratios on profligate banks means it can harden requirements without cutting profits for all, said Andy Brown, head of Asia bank research at UBS. He said there was a chance that the reserve ratio could climb beyond 25 percent for banks that lend excessively. Others noted the government was already helping banks by controlling lending and deposit rates, guaranteeing a roughly 300-basis-point net interest margin that drives their profits.

«Since you are enjoying policy benefits, you have to shoulder your responsibilities when policy is tightened,» said Fan Gang, a former academic adviser to the central bank. Although China's reserve requirements are among the toughest in the world right now, other nations have demanded more in the past. South Korea raised its ratio to as high as 30 percent in the 1980s and 1990s, UBS said.

Mirae's Li said China's banks are unique because they get over 90 percent of their funding from deposits. Unless they can grow their pool of deposits — a challenge made more difficult with real interest rates negative at present — China is approaching its reserve ratio ceiling, he said. But Sun Miaoling, an analyst with CICC in Beijing, said the most important fact was that reserve requirements had proved the most direct and effective way of mopping up excess cash. «Of course, reserve requirement rises may affect bank earnings, but the central bank now has something more urgent to worry about, and that is inflation,» she said. «In the past, the government helped banks clean up their bad loans, and now it is banks' turn to do something for the government.»

10 ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ КАТАСТРОФ, КОТОРЫЕ УГРОЖАЮТ "ПОРВАТЬ МИРОВОЙ ФИНАНСОВЫЙ РЫНОК В КЛОЧЬЯ"

Мы еще не достигли апреля, а 2011 уже войдет в историю, как самый незабываемый год в истории. Революции прокатились поБлижнему Востоку, беспрецедентное землетрясение и цунами в Японии, гражданская война в Ливии, растущая цена на нефть, и весь земной шар балансирует на грани экономического краха. Похоже, что почти все, что могло быть сотрясено в настоящий момент уже потрясено. Японской экономики был нанесен критический удар. Кризис Европейского суверенного долга может вспыхнуть в любой момент и экономика США потенциально может окунуться в рецессию к концу года. Мировая экономика и мировой финансовый рынк действительно пытаются восстановиться. Если глобальная нестабильность продолжит ухудшаться, то она может буквально похоронить мировой финансовый рынок. Действительно все сейчас оченьплохо. Средства массовой информации преуменьшают экономические последствия катастрофы в Японии и хаоса на Ближнем Востоке, но правда в том, что эти события имеют огромное значение для мировой экономики. Сегодня наш мир более взаимосвязан, чем когда-либо, так что экономические трудности в одном из районов планеты будет иметь значительное влияние на другие районы земного шара. Следующие 10 экономических бедствий, которые потенциально могут «порвать мировой финансовый рынок в клочья:

1. Война в Ливии

2. Революция на Среднем Востоке

3. Землетрясение и цунами в Японии

4. Ядерный кризис в Японии

5. Цена на нефть

6. Продовольственная инфляция

7. Долговой Европейский кризис

8. Смерть доллара

9. Новый разлив нефти в Мексиканском заливе

10. Пузырь на рынке производных

2011 has already been the most memorable year in ages and we haven't even reached April yet. Revolutions have swept the Middle East, an unprecedented earthquake and tsunami have hit Japan, civil war has erupted in Libya, the price of oil has been soaring and the entire globe is teetering on the brink of economic collapse. It seems like almost everything that can be shaken is being shaken. Unfortunately, it does not appear that things are going to settle down any time soon. The Japanese economy has been dealt a critical blow, the European sovereign debt crisis could flare up again at any moment and the U.S. economy could potentially plunge into another recession by the end of the year. The global economy and world financial markets were really struggling to recover even when things were relatively stable. If all of this global instability gets even worse it could literally rip world financial markets apart.

Yes, things really are that bad. The mainstream media has been really busy downplaying the economic impact of the disaster in Japan and the chaos in the Middle East, but the truth is that these events have huge implications for the global economy. Today our world is more interconnected than ever, so economic pain in one area of the planet is going to have a significant effect on other areas of the globe.

The following are 10 economic disasters which could potentially rip world financial markets to shreds....

#1 War In Libya

Do you think that the „international community“ would be intervening in Libya if they did not have a lot of oil? If you actually believe that, you might want to review the last few decades of African history. Millions upon millions of Africans have been slaughtered by incredibly repressive regimes and the „international community“ did next to nothing about it.

But Libya is different.

Libya is the largest producer of oil in Africa.

Apparently the revolution in Libya was not going the way it was supposed to, so the U.S. and Europe are stepping in.

Moammar Gadhafi is vowing that this will be a „long war“, but the truth is that his forces don't stand a chance against NATO.

Initially we were told that NATO would just be setting up a „no fly zone“, but there have already been reports of Libyan tank columns being assaulted and there has even been an air strike on Moammar Gadhafi's personal compound in Tripoli.

So since when did a „no fly zone“ include an attempt to kill a foreign head of state?

Let there be no mistake — the moment that the first Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched the United States declared war on Libya.

Already the Arab League, India, China and Russia have all objected to how this operation is being carried out and they are alarmed about the reports of civilian casualties.

Tensions around the globe are rising once again, and that is not a good thing for the world economy.

On a side note, does anyone recall anyone in the Obama administration even stopping for a moment to consider whether or not they should consult the U.S. Congress before starting another war?

The U.S. Constitution specifically requires the approval of the Congress before we go to war.

But very few people seem to care too much about what the U.S. Constitution says these days.

In any event, the flow of oil out of Libya is likely to be reduced for an extended period of time now, and that is not going to be good for a deeply struggling global economy.

#2 Revolutions In The Middle East

Protests just seem to keep spreading to more countries in the Middle East. On Friday, five Syrian protesters were killed by government forces in the city of Daraa. Subsequently, over the weekend thousands of protesters reportedly stormed government buildings in that city and set them on fire.

Things in the region just seem to get wilder and wilder.

Even in countries where the revolutions are supposed to be „over“ there is still a lot of chaos.

Have you seen what has been going on in Egypt lately?

The truth is that all of North Africa and nearly the entire Middle East is aflame with revolutionary fervor.

About the only place where revolution has not broken out is in Saudi Arabia. Of course it probably helps that the United States and Europe don't really want a revolution in Saudi Arabia and the Saudis have a brutally effective secret police force.

In any event, as long as the chaos in the Middle East continues the price of oil is likely to remain very high, and that is not good news for the world economy.

#3 The Japanese Earthquake And Tsunami

Japan is the third largest economy in the world. When a major disaster happens in that nation it has global implications.

The tsunami that just hit Japan was absolutely unprecedented. Vast stretches of Japan have been more thoroughly destroyed than if they had been bombed by a foreign military power. It really was a nation changing event.

The Japanese economy is going to be crippled for an extended period of time. But it is not just Japan's economy that has been deeply affected by this tragedy.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the recent disaster in Japan has caused supply chain disruptions all over the globe....

A shortage of Japanese-built electronic parts will force GM to close a plant in Zaragoza, Spain, on Monday and cancel shifts at a factory in Eisenach, Germany, on Monday and Tuesday, the company said Friday.

Not only that, GM has also suspended all „nonessential“ spending globally as it evaluates the impact of this crisis.

The truth is that there are a whole host of industries that rely on parts from Japan. Supply chains all over the world are going to have to be changed as a result of this crisis. There are going to be some shortages of certain classes of products.

Japan is a nation that imports and exports tremendous quantities of goods. At least for a while both imports and exports will be significantly down, and that is not good news for a world economy that was already having a really hard time recovering from the recent economic downturn.

#4 The Japan Nuclear Crisis

Even if the worst case scenario does not play out, the reality is that the crisis at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant is going to have a long lasting impact on the global economy.

Already, nuclear power projects all over the world are being rethought. The nuclear power industry was really starting to gain some momentum in many areas of the globe, but now that has totally changed.

But of much greater concern is the potential effect that all of this radiation will have on the Japanese people. Radiation from the disaster at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant is now showing up in food and tap water in Japan as an article on the website of USA Today recently described....

The government halted shipments of spinach from one area and raw milk from another near the nuclear plant after tests found iodine exceeded safety limits. But the contamination spread to spinach in three other prefectures and to more vegetables — canola and chrysanthemum greens. Tokyo's tap water, where iodine turned up Friday, now has cesium.

Hopefully the authorities in Japan will be able to get this situation under control before Tokyo is affected too much. The truth is that Tokyo is one of the most economically important cities on the planet.

But right now there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Tokyo. For example, one very large German real estate fund says that their holdings in Tokyo are now „impossible to value“ and they have suspended all customer withdrawals from the fund.

Once again, let us hope that a worst case scenario does not happen. But if we do get to the point where most of the population had to be evacuated from Tokyo for an extended period of time it would be absolutely devastating for the global economy.

#5 The Price Of Oil

Most people believe that the U.S. dollar is the currency of the world, but really it is oil. Without oil, the global economy that we have constructed simply could not function.

That is why it was so alarming when the price of oil went above $100 a barrel earlier this year for the first time since 2008. Virtually everyone agrees that if the price of oil stays high for an extended period of time it will have a highly negative impact on the world economy.

In particular, the U.S. economy is highly, highly dependent on cheap oil. This country is really spread out and we transport goods and services over vast distances. That is why the following facts are so alarming....

*The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States is now 75 cents higher than it was a year ago.

*In San Francisco, California, the average price of a gallon of gasoline is now $3.97.

*According to the Oil Price Information Service, U.S. drivers spent an average of $347 on gasoline during the month of February, which was 30 percent more than a year earlier.

*According to the U.S. Energy Department, the average U.S. household will spend approximately $700 more on gasoline in 2011 than it did during 2010.

#6 Food Inflation

Many people believe that the rapidly rising price of food has been a major factor in sparking the revolutions that we have seen in Africa and the Middle East. When people cannot feed themselves or their families they tend to lose it.

According to the United Nations, the global price of food hit a new all-time high earlier this year, and the UN is expecting the price of food to continue to go up throughout the rest of this year. Food supplies were already tight around the globe and this is certainly not going to help things.

The price of food has also been going up rapidly inside the United States. Last month the price of food in the United States rose at the fastest rate in 36 years.

American families are really starting to feel their budgets stretched. According to the U.S. Labor Department, the cost of living in the United States hit a brand new all-time record high in the month of February.

What this means is that U.S. families are going to have less discretionary income to spend at the stores and that is bad news for the world economy.

#7 The European Sovereign Debt Crisis

Several European governments have had their debt downgraded in the past several months. Portugal, Spain, Greece and Ireland are all in big time trouble. Several other European nations are not far behind them.

Right now Germany seems content to bail the „weak sisters“ in Europe out, but if that changes at some point it is going to be an absolute nightmare for world financial markets.

#8 The Dying U.S. Dollar

Right now there is a lot of anxiety about the U.S. dollar. Prior to the tsunami, Japan was one of the primary purchasers of U.S. government debt. In fact, Japan was the second-largest foreign buyer of U.S. Treasuries last year.

But now as Japan rebuilds from this nightmare it is not going to have capital to invest overseas. Someone else is going to have to step in and buy up all of the debt that the Japanese were buying.

Not only that, but big bond funds such as PIMCO have announced that they are stepping away from U.S. Treasuries at least for now.

So if Japan is not buying U.S. Treasuries and bond funds such as PIMCO are not buying U.S. Treasuries, then who is going to be buying them?

The U.S. government needs to borrow trillions of dollars this year alone to roll over existing debt and to finance new debt. All of that borrowing has got to come from somewhere.

#9 A New Oil Spill In The Gulf Of Mexico?

As if everything above was not enough, there are reports of a possible major new oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. Coast Guard is on the scene and is investigating. The following is what a new report in the Wall Street Journal says about it....

The Coast Guard said in a news release that it received a report of a three-mile-long rainbow sheen off the Louisiana coast just before 9:30 a.m. local time on Saturday. Two subsequent sightings were relayed to the Coast Guard, the last of which reported a sheen that extended from about 6 miles south of Grand Isle, La. to 100 miles offshore.

#10 The Derivatives Bubble

Most Americans do not even understand what derivatives are, but the truth is that they are one of the biggest threats to our financial system. Some experts estimate that the worldwide derivatives bubble is somewhere in the neighborhood of a quadrillion dollars. This bubble could burst at any time. Right now we are watching the greatest financial casino in the history of the globe spin around and around and around and everyone is hoping that at some point it doesn't stop. Today, most money on Wall Street is not made by investing in good business ideas. Rather, most money on Wall Street is now made by making shrewd bets. Unfortunately, at some point the casino is going to come crashing down and the game will be over.

Most people simply do not realize how fragile the global economy is at this point.

The financial crash of 2008 was a devastating blow. The next wave of the economic crisis could be even worse.

So what will the rest of 2011 bring?

Well, nobody knows for sure, but a lot of experts are not optimistic.

David Rosenberg, the chief economist at Gluskin Sheff and Associates, is warning that the second half of the year could be very rough for the global economy....

»A sharp slowing in global GDP in the second half of the year cannot be ruled out."

Let us hope that the world economy can hold together and that we can get through the rest of 2011 okay. The last thing we need is a repeat of 2008. The world could use some peace and some time to recover.

But unfortunately, we live in a world that is becoming increasingly unstable. With the way that the world has been lately, perhaps we should all just start to expect the unexpected.

But world financial markets do not respond well to instability and unpredictability. In fact, investors tend to start fleeing to safety at the first signs of danger these days.

Most Americans simply have no idea how vulnerable the world financial system is at this point. Nothing really got «fixed» after 2008. If anything, global financial markets are even more fragile than they were back then.

So what do all of you think about the state of the global economy? Please feel free to leave a comment with your opinion below....

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/shaken-10-economic-disasters-which-threaten-to-rip-world-financial-markets-to-shreds

Спрос на медь в Китае упал на 12.5% (Таблица спроса на промышленные металлы)

ПРЕМЬЕР КНР,ТОВАРИЩ WEN ГОВОРИТ:"УДИВЛЕН И ШОКИРОВАН" СТОИМОСТЬЮ НЕФТИ

Об этом товарищ Wen Jiabao заявил на сегодняшней встрече с главами банковских групп, в числе которых были представители JPMorgan Chase & Co и HSBC Holdings Plc.Оказывается, для премьера КНР стал«удивлением и шоком» тот факт, что цена барреля нефти превысила 100 долларов.Кроме выражения своего «удивления» товарищ Wen также заявил, что необходимо срочно улучшить систему ценообразования на нефть в Китае, в соответствие с международной практикой.

March 21 (Bloomberg) — Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said he was “surprised and shocked” that the price of oil had exceeded $100 a barrel. “I feel somewhat concerned about the oil price,” Wen said today in Beijing at a meeting with visiting business executives including JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon and Royal Dutch Shell Plc Chief Executive Officer Peter Voser. “I am very surprised and shocked when I saw the international price of oil has exceeded $100 a barrel.”

Oil prices in New York and London climbed today as allied air strikes in Libya threatened to prolong a supply disruption in Africa’s third-biggest producer. Crude oil in London gained as much as 2 percent to $116.22 a barrel today.

China needs to improve its system of pricing oil, which has to be “consistent with international practice,” Wen said. China may adjust fuel prices when crude costs change by more than 4 percent over 22 working days based on a mechanism introduced in December 2008. The country, the world’s largest energy user, imports more than half of its crude oil as domestic production growth lags behind demand.

СТОИМОСТЬ СТРАХОВЫХ КОНТРАКТОВ НА ДЕФОЛТ TOKYO ELECTRIC POWER УПАЛА

Страховой контракт сроком на 5 лет на риск дефолта по обязательствам Tokyo Electric Power Co упал в стоимости на 37.базисных пункта.Сейчас контракт на 5 лет, стоит $ 265 000

LONDON, March 21 (Reuters) — The cost of insuring Tokyo Electric Power Co's debt against default fell on Monday after Japan restored power on Sunday to a crippled nuclear reactor owned by the company. TEPCO's five-year credit default swaps fell 37 basis points from Friday's close to 265 bps, according to Markit. The CDS reached a record high of 373 bps on March 17, as engineers struggled to salvage the Fukushima plant following a giant earthquake and tsunami. Japan's five-year CDS rose 1 bp on Monday, a market holiday in Japan, to 107 bps. The CDS hit record highs above 120 bps last week.

ЧЛЕН ЕЦБ ГОСПОДИН MERSCH ГОВОРИТ:РЕГУЛЯТОР ГОТОВ ДЕЙСТВОВАТЬ НА ОПЕРЕЖЕНИЕ

Член Совета Директоров ЕЦБ господин Yves Mersch заявил, что Цетробанк готов предпринять необходимые меры против рисков для ценовой стабильности.Господин Mersch сказал, что "… регулятор оставляет возможность действовать вовремя… для сдерживания повышенных рисков для ценовой стабильности… чтобы не дать тенденции материализоваться в среднесрочной перспективе..."

BRUSSELS, March 21 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is ready to take decisive and timely action to guard against risks that would threaten price stability, ECB policy maker Yves Mersch said in a bulletin published on Monday.

The remarks signal that the ECB still intends to raise interest rates next month, weeks after President Jean-Claude Trichet surprised markets by announcing that an April rate rise was possible. «It is essential that the recent rise in inflation does not lead to generalized inflation pressures in the medium term,» Mersch said in a bulletin from Luxembourg's central bank, where he is governor.

«The governing council remains prepared to act decisively and timely to ensure that upside risks to price stability do not materialise over the medium term,» said Mersch, who sits on the ECB's Governing Council.

XINHUA СООБЩАЕТ:КОММЕРЧЕСКИЕ ЗАПАСЫ НЕФТИ В КИТАЕ УПАЛИ НА 2% В ФЕВРАЛЕ (М/М).ДИЗТОПЛИВА ВЫРОСЛИ НА 28% (М/М)

Запасы сырой нефти сократились в феврале на 2% по сравнению с январьскими показателями.Запасы нефтепродуктов выросли на 15%, в частности запасы дизельного топлива увеличились сразу на 28% по сравнению с январем.

СПРОС НА СЫРУЮ НЕФТЬ В КИТАЕ ВЫРОС В ФЕВРАЛЕ

Спрос вырос на 15.3% по сравнению с прошлым годом и составил в физическом выражении свыше 9.2 миллионов баррелей в сутки.

КИТАЙ РАЗРЕШИЛ ЕЩЕ 8 ИНОСТРАННЫМ БАНКАМ ПРОВОДИТЬ ОПЕРАЦИИ В ЮАНЯХ

Список банков, которым разрешено проводить операции с использованием юаня, расширен в очередной раз.Еще восьми банкам, будет разрешено использовать юань при проведении банковских операций, в том числе и на внутреннем финансовом рынке.

HONG KONG, March 21 (Reuters) — China took a fresh step on Monday to promote use of the yuan outside the country's borders, giving approval to another batch of overseas banks to trade in the onshore bond market using yuan accumulated overseas.

Eight more banks may now trade in the onshore interbank bond market using yuan in deposit accounts in Hong Kong, following an earlier group of seven institutions given permission in January, the central bank said in a statement posted on the official website for the bond market, www.chinabond.com.cn.

The move by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) makes it easier for banks outside China to bring yuan, accumulated offshore as a result of trade settlement or central bank swaps, back into mainland China. China first announced it would open up the interbank bond market to select offshore investors last August.

The central bank has said it intends to broaden channels for yuan to flow back into the mainland from offshore deposit accounts this year, including through allowing more foreign banks to buy bonds in the interbank market. Trade settlement in yuan has soared since landmark reforms taken by authorities last July to promote Hong Kong as an offshore yuan trading hub, but investors are searching for ways to use their growing yuan deposits.

Yuan deposits in Hong Kong increased 17.7 percent in January to 370.6 billion yuan ($56.4 billion) in January from a month earlier, according to Hong Kong Monetary Authority data, and up from 103.7 billion yuan in July 2010.

As of December, only five foreign banks including HSBC and Standard Chartered were allowed to trade in the Chinese bond market, within a quota of 29.2 billion yuan.

In January, the central bank allowed a group of seven banks to invest in the onshore bond market.

The following eight banks were given permission on Monday to invest in the onshore interbank market using offshore yuan funds: — Agricultural Bank of China Hong Kong branch — China Construction Bank Corp Hong Kong branch — Citibank Hong Kong branch — Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Hong Kong branch — Nanyang Commercial Bank — Wing Lung Bank — Wing Hang Bank — Chiyu Bank The following were given such permission in January: — Bank of Communications Hong Kong branch — Hang Seng Bank Ltd — CITIC Bank International Ltd — China Construction Bank (Asia) Co Ltd — Bank of East Asia Ltd — Deutsche Bank Hong Kong branch — DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Co Ltd

КИТАЙ РАЗРЕШИТ СВОИМ КОРПОРАЦИЯМ РАЗМЕЩАТЬ ДОЛГОВЫЕ БУМАГИ ЗА ПРЕДЕЛАМИ СТРАНЫ

March 21 (Bloomberg) — China will allow more domestic companies to sell bonds overseas and promote foreign companies to invest in Chinese bonds, Xie Duo, director of the financial market department of the People’s Bank of China, said in a report on its website today.

БАНК НОМУРА:ИНВЕСТОРЫ ПОКУПАЛИ АКЦИИ ЯПОНИИ НА ПРОШЛОЙ НЕДЕЛЕ (Таблица)

ДАННЫЕ ТАМОЖЕННОЙ СЛУЖБЫ КИТАЯ ЗА ФЕВРАЛЬ ПО ИМПОРТУ И ЭКСПОРТУ СЫРЬЯ И ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВИЯ

ВСЕМИРНЫЙ БАНК:ИНФЛЯЦИЯ В КИТАЕ ВРЯД ЛИ СНИЗИТСЯ В СКОРОМ ВРЕМЕНИ

Инфляционное давление в Китае не снизится в скором времени.Такую точку зрения высказал ведущий экономист World Bank, господин Louis Kuijs, выступая на брифинге в Пекине.

March 21 (Bloomberg) — Inflationary pressure in China is unlikely to diminish soon, Louis Kuijs, the World Bank’s senior economist for China, said at a briefing in Beijing today.

СТРАХОВАЯ КОМПАНИЯ SWISS RE ОЦЕНИВАЕТ СТОИМОСТЬ ВЫПЛАТЫ ПЕРМИЙ ПО СТРАХОВКЕ НА ЯПОНИЮ НА УРОВНЕ В $ 1.200 МЛЛРД.

Swiss Reinsurance Co Ltd оценило стоимость выплат по страховым премиям связанным с катастрофой в Японии на уровне в $ 1200 миллиардов, что связано с более высоким уровнем неопределенности ситуации.

ZURICH, March 21 (Reuters) — Swiss Reinsurance Co Ltd: * Provides estimate of its claims costs from Japan earthquake andtsunami * Res ays estimates claims costs of USD 1.2 billion, net of retrocession and before tax * Says claims estimate is subject to a higher than usual degree of uncertainty, and may need to be subsequently adjusted

АГЕНТСТВО MOODY'S ГОВОРИТ:КРЕДИТНЫЕ РИСКИ ДЛЯ ЯПОНИИ УВЕЛИЧИВАЮТСЯ

March 21 (Reuters) — Japan disasters: Moody's says in a special report the downside risks of Japan's disasters have increased.

Текст заявления:

The report, entitled «Special report: Impact of Japan's Disasters: Risks to the Downside Have Increased», is available at www.moodys.com.

Moody's Investors Service says in a special report on the situation in Japan that the downside risks from the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis have increased over the past week for the country's economy, sovereign credit, banking, insurance, and non-financial corporate sectors The report — published today — outlines Moody's thinking on the immediate and long-term credit implications of the crisis for Japan's financial and corporate sectors, as well as its macro-economic and sovereign outlooks.

It also examines the effects of the situation on a host of sectors,including assessments of the supply chain impacts, such as for the US auto sector, and US and Asian electronics sector. Despite the higher risks, Moody's base-case assumptions remain broadly unchanged from a week ago: Japan's growth will resume in 2H2011; investor confidence will continue with regard to government bonds; the banking system will be resilient; and the worst-affected sectors will be insurance and utilities, with others experiencing a limited impact.

The key assumption underlining this base case is a speedy containment of the nuclear problem. «We are now more negative in our assessment of the damage. The crisis has raised the risks facing both Tokyo Electric Power (A1 on review for possible downgrade) — as the owner of the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant at the center of the crisis — and Japan's overall utilities sector,» says Brian Cahill, Managing Director. «For many other industries, disruptions to power, begun by the earthquake and now exacerbated by the nuclear crisis, will cause an interruption to production which is more severe than we had anticipated.

ПОКУПАЙТЕ ЯПОНИЮ И ПРИСМОТРИТЕСЬ К ЮЖНОЙ КОРЕЕ:МИЛЛИАРДЕР УОРРЕН БАФФЕТ ДАЕТ ИНВЕСТИДЕИ

Известный миллиардер и инвестор, господин Баффет, полагает, что катастрофа в Японии, которая спровоцировала падение стоимости финансовых активов в стране, создает предпосылки для инвестиций в акции японских компаний.По мнению господина Баффет,"… восстановление экономики займет какое-то время, но это не изменит экономического будущего Японии… если бы я имел акции японских компаний, то конечно не продавал бы их… такое экстраординарное событие… создает реальные возомжности для инвестиций...".Такие мысли господин Баффет выразил, находясь с визитом в Южной Корее, где находился с «инспекционной»поездкой на одно из предприятий страны, в которое миллиардер вложил деньги.

DAEGU, South Korea, March 21 (Reuters) — Billionaire investor Warren Buffett believes Japan's devastating earthquake is the kind of extraordinary event that creates a buying opportunity for shares in Japanese companies. Japan, the world's third-largest economy, has been battling to bring an overheating nuclear plant under control after it was battered by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that rattled global markets and prompted massive intervention in currency markets by the Group of Seven industrial nations.

«It will take some time to rebuild, but it will not change the economic future of Japan,» Buffett said on Monday on a visit to a South Korean factory run by a company owned by one of his funds. «If I owned Japanese stocks, I would certainly not be selling them. „Frequently, something out of the blue like this, an extraordinary event, really creates a buying opportunity. I have seen that happen in the United States, I have seen that happen around the world. I don't think Japan will be an exception,“ said the 80-year-old investor, dubbed the „Sage of Omaha“ for his successful long-term investment strategy.

Buffett heads Berkshire Hathaway Inc, which has substantial insurance and utility investments globally. Japan's Nikkei share average rose 2.7 percent on Friday, buoyed by the G7 support, but still ended the week down around 10 percent, with some $350 billion wiped off share values — the market's biggest weekly slide since the global financial crisis in 2008. Japanese markets were closed on Monday. Buffett said Berkshire Hathaway, which at the year-end was sitting on $38 billion of cash equivalent and last week bought U.S. specialty chemicals maker Lubrizol for $9 billion, was looking for more large-scale acquisitions anywhere in the world. In his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders last month, Buffett had said he was looking for more acquisitions. „The United States is most likely where we will do something,“ he said at a ground-breaking ceremony for a South Korean factory run by a unit of an Israeli firm owned by his investment vehicle. Buffett will have yet more money to invest after Goldman Sachs buys back $5 billion of its preferred stock from Berkshire Hathaway, which the fund bought at the height of the global financial crisis.

EYE ON KOREA

Buffett, ranked the world's third-richest man by Forbes this year, said he was also looking to buy entire businesses and large-cap shares in South Korea — where Berkshire is already a leading shareholder in steelmaker POSCO. He said geopolitical risks associated with North Korea had not curbed his interest in South Korea, Asia's fourth-largest economy. Berkshire also owns a stake in Chinese car and battery maker BYD. Buffett did not disclose any holdings in Japan on Monday, and Berkshire Hathaway's annual report did not show any major investments there.

He had been due to visit Japan later this week, but cancelled due to the earthquake. Unlike many foreign fund managers, Buffett, who arrived in the southeastern city of Daegu on Sunday by private jet, won plaudits from ordinary South Koreans. Sporting gray sweat pants and running shoes, Buffett was greeted by signs reading „Mr Buffett: Daegu Loves You“. Many in this country of nearly 50 million people have bad memories of the 1998 Asian financial crisis when a deal with the International Monetary Fund bailed out the country but at the cost of tens of thousands of jobs. Some U.S. hedge funds have been branded „vultures“ for buying South Korean assets on the cheap in the wake of that crisis. „It's a once in a life-time opportunity. I'm honoured to meet such a respected businessman,“ said Seo Hyun-joo, a housewife wearing Korean traditional dress. Buffett later meets South Korean President Lee Myung-bak in Seoul and heads to India on Tuesday to launch his firm's insurance selling portal.

ДОЛГОВОЙ РЫНОК ЕВРОЗОНЫ:ЦЕНЫ РАСТУТ.РАЗНИЦА В СТАВКЕ ДОХОДНОСТИ БУМАГ ИСПАНИИ К НЕМЕЦКИМ,НИЖЕ 2%

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http://www.bloomberg.com/ (C) Источник

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