13 мая 2011 Bloomberg Бегларян Григорий
12 мая (Блумберг) — Международные инвесторы умерили свой оптимизм в отношении экономики США и других стран мира и планируют в ближайшие полгода увеличить долю денежных средств в портфелях и сократить вложения в сырьевые товары, свидетельствует опрос агентства Блумберг. Почти каждый третий из опрошенных инвесторов планирует увеличить долю наличных средств, а сократить вложения в сырье собираются 30 процентов респондентов, свидетельствует квартальный опрос Bloomberg Global, проведенный среди 1263 инвесторов, аналитиков и трейдеров, которые являются подписчиками агентства Блумберг. Оба результата являются самыми высокими с июня прошлого года, когда респондентам впервые стали задавать соответствующий вопрос. Большинство, или 40 процентов, опрошенных ожидают падения цен на нефть в ближайшие шесть месяцев.
Такая ситуация наблюдается впервые за всю историю опроса — с июля 2009 года. “Большая игра в стимулирование экономики окончена”, — сообщил Билл О’Коннор, основатель хедж-фонда Sagg Main Capital в Нью-Йорке, принимавший участие в опросе. Он объяснил, что перекладывается в наличные средства, поскольку Федеральная резервная система США сворачивает программу покупки облигаций, а американские конгрессмены стремятся сократить бюджет. Менее четырех из каждых 10 респондентов утверждают, что экономическая ситуация в США и мире улучшается, тогда как в январе такое мнение высказывали порядка 50 процентов опрошенных.
Рост американской экономики замедлился до 1,8 процента в первом квартале этого года с 3,1 процента в четвертом квартале 2010 года. По данным Национальной ассоциации риэлторов, цены на жилье за первый квартал 2011 года снизились в более чем 75 процентах городов США. Настороженные прогнозы по акциям Опрос, проводившийся 9-10 мая, также показал, что аппетит инвесторов к акциям угасает. Увеличить вложения в фондовые рынки в ближайшие полгода планируют двое из каждых пяти респондентов против трех из пяти в прошлом опросе, который проводился в январе.
Особенно заметно уменьшился энтузиазм американских инвесторов: среди них нарастить вложения в акции собираются всего 37 процентов против 57 процентов в ходе предыдущего опроса. Более половины респондентов прогнозируют дальнейшее падение цен на серебро в ближайшие шесть месяцев. Шестнадцать процентов опрошенных назвали сырьевые товары в числе рынков, которые в ближайший год принесут инвесторам наименьший доход. Доля респондентов, придерживающихся такого мнения, увеличилась более чем вдвое по сравнению с январем.
На сырьевых рынках “сформировался пузырь, и велико количество непрофессиональных инвесторов”, отмечает сейлз- менеджер KNG Securities LLP в Лондоне Кен Уэлби, принимавший участие в опросе. По его словам, “спрос не успевает за ростом цен, который мы наблюдаем”. По-прежнему первые Хотя инвестиционная привлекательность США снижается, опрос показал, что страна все же сохраняет лидерство в этом отношении. Доля респондентов, указавших Соединенные Штаты в качестве страны, где в следующем году ожидаются самые высокие доходы от инвестиций, составила 31 процент против 37 процентов в январе.
Следом за США идут Бразилия и Китай — на них указал каждый четвертый участник опроса. Пятнадцать процентов назвали в числе наиболее привлекательных стран Японию — это почти в два раза больше, чем во время январского опроса, до разрушительного землетрясения и цунами, в результате которых, по данным на 7 мая, погибли или пропали без вести 24837 человек, а фондовый рынок страны рухнул. “Мы уверены, что японцы решают свои проблемы и доходы не разочаруют инвесторов, — сказал Уэлби. — Этот рынок выглядит привлекательно с точки зрения относительной стоимости”.
Европейские рынки Большинство респондентов рассматривают Евросоюз как один из рынков, где на протяжении следующего года ожидаются самые низкие доходы от инвестиций. Такой точки зрения придерживаются 38 процентов опрошенных — практически столько же, сколько в январе. Вторым худшим для вложений регионом оказался охваченный волнениями Ближний Восток — на него указал почти каждый четвертый инвестор. В прошлый раз такое мнение высказали менее 10 процентов респондентов. Ежеквартальный опрос международных инвесторов, трейдеров и аналитиков, которые являются подписчиками Блумберг, проводился компанией Selzer & Co. из Айовы. Допустимая погрешность составляет плюс-минус 2,8 процентного пункта.
ИНСПЕКТОРЫ ЕС И МВФ ОЦЕНИВАЮТ РИСКИ СОКРАЩЕНИЯ ПОСТУПЛЕНИЙ В ГРЕЦИИ КАК «СЛИШКОМ ВЫСОКИЕ» И ТРЕБУЮТ БОЛЬШЕГО СОКРАЩЕНИЯ БЮДЖЕТНЫХ РАСХОДОВ, – СООБЩАЕТ ИСТОЧНИК В ПРАВИТЕЛЬСТВЕ ГРЕЦИИ
РАЗ, ДВА, ТРИ, ЧЕТЫРЕ - ИСПАНИЯ ОТКРЫВАЙ ДВЕРЬ ПОШИРЕ, ПЯТЬ, ШЕСТЬ, СЕМЬ, ВОСЕМЬ - YEILD CURVE ПРИДЕТ В ГОСТИ
Слов будет мало, а графиков много. Ниже будут представлены графики кривой доходности Испании, сравнение с кривой доходностей Германии, графики доходностей по отдельным бумагам, спредам, графики CDS, графики долга и безработицы.
Кривая доходностей Испании:
Графики доходностей по срокам:
Графики спредов доходностей Испания VS Германия
Графики кривой CDS на Испанию
Графики CDS на Испанию по срокам:
Графики спредов CDS на Испанию и Германию:
Долг Испании в графиках
Безработица в Испании
закончить хочется той самой считалочкой, которая «вдохновила» на название этого топика:
КИТАЙ ПОВЫСИЛ РЕЗЕРВНЫЕ ТРЕБОВАНИЯ ДЛЯ БАНКОВ НА 50 БП С 18 МАЯ
ПЕКИН, 12 мая. /Dow Jones/. Центральный банк Китая заявил в четверг, что он повысит резервные требования для банков на 0,50 процентного пункта, в пятый раз за этот год, для борьбы с инфляционными опасениями за счет того, что ликвидность будет заперта в банковской системе. Повышение, которое вступит в силу с 18 мая, произошло после того, как индекс потребительских цен /CPI/ в стране в апреле вырос на 5,3% против роста на 5,4% в марте. Народный банк Китая в прошлом году повышал резервные требования шесть раз, а также четырежды повысил процентные ставки по кредитам и депозитам с октября. Предыдущее повышение резервных требований вступило в силу 21 апреля, а повышение процентных ставок – 6 апреля. Официальный уровень резервных требований в Китае для большинства крупных банков теперь возрастет до 21% после того, как мера вступит в силу. С конца прошлого года центральный банк требовал от некоторых банков отложить дополнительные резервы сверх официальных резервных требований.
ГОСПОДИН ДЖИМ О'НЕЙЛ ВЕРИТ В "МЯГКУЮ ПОСАДКУ КИТАЯ" И ЖДЕТ ОКОНЧАНИЯ ПОЛИТИКИ УЖЕСТОЧЕНИЯ СО СТОРОНЫ ЦБ КНР
Самый оптимистичный экономист в мире (так в шутку называют коллеги господина Jim O'Neill), а ныне управляющий фондом Goldman Sachs Asset Management, призывает не драматизировать ситуацию, имея в в виду падение цен на сырье и спад в китайской экономике.По мнению управляющего O'Neill, спад в экономике Китая оказался глубже чем ожидалось и поэтому темпы роста ВВП Китая могут упасть до 8%.В этой связи, китайские власти вынуждены будут прекратить политику ужесточения денежно-кредитной политики, так как дальнейшее повышение процентных ставок и ограничения в отношении китайских банков, будет только увеличивать риски еще большего экономического спада.На основании этих доводов, господин O'Neill пришел к выводу, что уже во второй половине года, ужесточение монетарной политики в Китае завершится, что по сути будет означать так называему «мягкую посадку».
Рассуждая о дальнейших перспективах, господин O'Neill отмечает, что падение цен на сырье не стало чем то неожиданным, а лично его удивило только то, что цены на сырье так сильно росли в первые месяцы этого года, не принимая во внимание явное замедление в Китае.Господин O'Neill полагает, что когда станет очевидно, что Китай перестал ужесточать политику, и инфляция начнет снижаться (он считает, что темпы роста потребительских цен замедлятся до 4%) это вызовет начало биржевого ралли в Китае и стабилизацию сырьевых цен, а возможно и новой фазы роста.Господин O'Neill, с присущим ему оптимизмом добавил, что "… как только Народный Банк Китая сможет прекратить повышение ставок, мы все будем счастливы наблюдать за тем, как жизнь стала еще лучше..." имея видимо в виду, жизнь на финансовом рынке.
Кстати господин O'Neill рассуждал на тему влияния Китая на мировую экономику и в частности на экономики стран BRICS.Учитывая, что управляющий O'Neill верит в «мягкую посадку» Китая, то значит он верит и в перспективы стран BRICS.Особенно господин Jim O'Neill выдели Россию и ответил критикам (которые рекомендуют ему исключить Россию из категории BRICS за несоответствие), что тактически, рассматривает российский финансовый рынок, как самый интересный и перспективный из всех растущих рынков.
HONG KONG, May 12 (Reuters) — China's economic growth could slow to 8 percent, Goldman Sach's Jim O'Neill said on Thursday, as economic data and a drop in commodity prices point to Beijing ending its monetary tightening policy sometime this year. The slowdown to around 8 percent would likely occur in the second half of this year, adding that given the data out this week, it could occur as early as the second-quarter, O'Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management told a small media gathering in Hong Kong.
«It is my judgement that the Chinese economy is probably slowing down more than people realize,» he said, adding that as a result, he was not surprised that commodity prices are coming under pressure. As evidence, he cited the Goldman Sachs China Activity Index, the firm's propriperary indicator of GDP, which shows that the momentum of Chinese growth has slowed, and that slowdown was supported by economic data reported this week.
«And I suspect that China is going to slow down to around 8 pct GDP growth. If I'm right, that means sometime in the 2nd half this year, Chinese inflation will not be a problem, and will come back down to around 4 percent,» he said. «And the PBOC will be able to stop tightening monetary policy and we can all live happily ever after.» China's industrial output growth eased much more than expected in April to suggest the world's second-biggest economy is cooling, even as the inflation rate came in a shade lower than the 32-month-high reached in March.
«It's not surprising at all that commodities prices are coming under pressure,» he said. «The surprise is that they rose so much earlier in the year.» A stop to tightening, he suspected would result in a China stock rally.
BRIIC? BRICK?? As he has done before, O'Neill outlined a set of slides that shows how it is no longer appropriate label BRIC nations as «emerging markets.» Those economies are what he calls «growth economies» now, while setting aside 11 nations he refers to as proper «emerging economies.» A lot of speculation has gone into what country could be added to the now famous BRIC acronym, an acronym O'Neill says he dreamed up and ever since it «has literally changed my life.» Several times during the roundtable, O'Neill, wearing a gray suit and drinking a Diet Coke to fight jet lag, referred to himself jokingly as «Mr. Bric.»
«To be a BRIC, you've got to be at least 3 percent of (world) GDP, with potential of being 5 percent. It's very hard to see any country in that category, Indonesia and Mexico would have to do some spectacular things to get there. Indonesia would have to grow by idiotic amounts to get even close.» O'Neill added that being bigger than Turkey does not qualify Indonesia as a BRIC, and that Russia is still three times the size of the Southeast Asian nation. «Why on earth do people call Korea an emerging market?» he asked. O'Neill closed the session with his thoughts on Russia. «I get an email every day on how I should drop Russia from the BRICs. And it's like a reverse indicator. Russia is cheap,» he said. «Tactically, I find Russia to be the most interesting of the growth markets.»
ВВП ГЕРМАНИИ В 1-М КВ С КОРРЕКЦИЕЙ +1.5% К/К, +4.9% Г/Г, ПРОГНОЗ БЫЛ +0.9% К/К, +4.2% Г/Г
В то же время квартальный показатель за последние три месяца прошлого года пересмотрен с ухудшением: +3,8% к/к после 4,0% к/к. По мнению аналитиков немецкого статистического ведомства, рост ВВП в первом квартале нынешнего года вызван положительными изменениями в таких сферах национальной экономики, как производство пром. оборудования, строительство, а также капиталовложения потребителей (покупка товаров длительного пользования). В статистическом отчете указывается, что уровень ВВП в 1-м квартале 2011 года превзошел докризисные показатели на уровне 2008 г.
May 13 (Bloomberg) — German economic growth accelerated more than economists forecast in the first quarter as booming
exports fueled domestic spending.
Gross domestic product, adjusted for seasonal effects, jumped 1.5 percent from the fourth quarter, when it rose 0.4 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists had forecast growth of 0.9 percent, according to the
median of 30 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, GDP surged 5.2 percent, the biggest increase recorded
since German reunification two decades ago.
Europe’s largest economy is driving growth in the 17-nation euro region, putting pressure on the European Central Bank to
keep raising interest rates even as peripheral countries such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal remain mired in a sovereign debt
crisis. With German unemployment at a 19-year low helping to boost consumer spending, the government predicts growth of 2.6 percent this year after last year’s record 3.6 percent expansion.
“The recovery has become more broad-based,” said Andreas Scheuerle, an economist at Dekabank in Frankfurt. “While the
German economy certainly won’t keep this fantastic pace, the outlook is pretty rosy.”
Euro-area economic growth probably accelerated to 0.6 percent in the first quarter from 0.3 percent in the fourth,
another Bloomberg survey shows. The European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg will release that report at 11 a.m. today.
Export Boom
Company investment, construction and household consumption all contributed to first-quarter GDP growth, the statistics
office said. With exports and imports both expanding, net trade made a smaller contribution to growth than domestic demand, it
said.
German exports surged 7.3 percent in March to the highest monthly value since records began in 1950, and industrial
production increased for a third month as construction surged. Unemployment fell below 3 million for the first time in almost
19 years in April in adjusted terms. Germany’s Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world’s largest maker of luxury vehicles, earned more money per car than ever before in its 95-year history, the company said May 4. BASF SE, the world’s biggest chemical company, last week reported first-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates.
“If anything, the risks for German growth are on the upside,” said James Nixon, chief European economist at Societe
Generale SA in London. “Germany has done its homework, has put in place some painful reforms and is benefiting now.”
Some countries are still struggling to revive their economies after the region’s debt crisis forced governments to
toughen austerity measures. Greece’s credit rating was cut two levels this week to B from BB- by Standard & Poor’s, which said
further reductions are possible as the risk of default rises.
“Germany is on a solid upward trend while other European countries are still lagging,” said Heinrich Bayer, an economist
at Deutsche Postbank AG in Bonn. “Risks stem in particular from a possible renewed spike in oil prices and fiscal consolidation
efforts, which could hamper growth.”
John Taylor,владелец крупнейшего валютного фонда в мире полагает:Ралли в рискованных активах подошло к концу
ohn Taylor владелец компании FX Concepts LLC, которая управляет самыми крупными в мире, валютными фондами.На этот раз господин Taylor высказал точку зрения, что ралли в рискованных активах, которое длится уже третий год, близится к завершению.По его мнению, такие выводы можно сделать на основании статистической модели, которой руководствуются управляющие из FX Concepts LLC, а модель предсказывает окончание периода «покупки рисков».Аргументы — разрастание суверенного кризиса в Еврозоне, спад в мировой экономике и чахлое состояние банковской системы.Ранее, господин Taylor уже высказывал схожую точку зрения, последний раз прогноз, подобный нынешнему (об окончании ралли в рискованных активах) он высказывал осенью прошлого года, однако позже признался, что его прогноз оказался ошибочным.На этот раз господин Taylor уверен в своей правоте и делает ставку на падение курса евро и общий роста американского доллара к высокодоходным валютам.
May 12 (Bloomberg) — John Taylor, founder of the world’s largest currency-hedge fund, said the rally in higher-yielding assets is coming to an end with Europe’s sovereign debt crisis resurfacing, growth sluggish and banking systems unsteady. “This is the end of the nice slow moving risk rally that has lulled us pleasantly to sleep since the first half of 2009,” Taylor, chairman of New York-based FX Concepts LLC, said in an interview. “This warning is worthy of a brass band and bright lights as the other side of this low volatility rally will most likely be a scary descent that will have a very negative impact on markets. Our statistical models say we are about at the end of the road for risk.”
Подробнее здесь: noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adLeCl6vQzt4&pos=3
Shanghai Gold Exchange повышает маржинальные требования по фьючерсам на серебро до 19%
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — The Shanghai Gold Exchange said Thursday it will raise margin requirements for silver futures as part of risk-control measures, its third round of increases in less than a month, according to a statement posted on the exchange's web site. Margin requirements will rise to 19% of a contract's value from 18%, while the daily price limit for the one kilogram silver forward contract will rise to 13% from 10% above or below the previous session's close. The new trading requirements will be effective from May 13. The exchange announced previous rounds of increases to margins and price limits on May 5 and April 25.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shanghai-in-third-silver-margin-hike-in-month-2011-05-12?link=MW_latest_news
МВФ ПРЕДОСТЕРЕГАЕТ: БУМ В ЛАТИНСКОЙ АМЕРИКЕ МОЖЕТ ЗАКОНЧИТЬСЯ ПОЛНОМАСШТАБНЫМ КРИЗИСОМ.
Такое необычайно драматичное заявление сделал один из директоров МВФ, господин Nicolas Eyzaguirre.По его словам, нынешний экономический бум в регионе, который привел к перегреву, может привести к полномасштабному кризису, в том случае, если правительства стран Латинской Америки не смогут взять под контроль инфляцию.
RIO DE JANEIRO, May 12 (Reuters) — Latin America's economic boom could end in a «full-blown» crisis unless the region's governments properly manage the situation, the International Monetary Fund's top regional official said in an unusually stark warning to both policymakers and investors on Thursday. Nicolas Eyzaguirre, the IMF's director for the western hemisphere, said that Latin America's economic fundamentals appear to be in good shape. Yet he urged policymakers to take steps to keep their economies from overheating, and set aside as much of the windfall from the current boom as possible.
Otherwise, he told a conference of central bankers in Rio de Janeiro, the region could see its currencies dramatically weaken as a result of a sudden external shock — such as, he said, a fall in global commodities prices or an unexpectedly fast increase in interest rates in the United States. Eyzaguirre honed in on Brazil, saying that the government of President Dilma Rousseff should continue to «rein in the economy through an array of measures to avoid excessive exuberance, or it could end in tears.» «If a big correction comes into the fore… capital could stop coming into the country all of a sudden and you could have a big financial crisis,» he added. Eyzaguirre's remarks amounted to one of the strongest warnings to date by a senior official of the near-term dangers posed by Latin America's recent run of prosperity.
While he tempered his speech with praise for policymakers' efforts so far, he also criticized Latin America's record of overspending during good economic times. He warned investors not to overexpose themselves to the so-called carry trade in Brazil's real currency, which he said could face weakness ahead. Eyzaguirre's comments come as the real and some other regional currencies have weakened in recent days in tandem with global commodities prices. Concerns over demand in China, a main buyer of Latin America's commodities, have prompted some to ask whether regional growth will shift into a slower phase. «There is a very good chance that prices could change quickly and abruptly,» said Jorge Knauer, treasurer of Banco Prosper in Rio de Janeiro.
«The drop in commodities prices has the same impact as a reduction in liquidity through interest rates. When commodities fall, the region's currencies will fall with them.» Others saw longer-term reasons for concern. «It sounds like he's asking whether the region is doing enough to prepare for the proverbial rainy day,» said Gray Newman, head Latin America economist for Morgan Stanley. «The risk is that policymakers get too comfortable (with growth) and don't feel the kind of urgency to really prepare for what might be ahead.» Eyzaguirre said a moderate correction in global commodities prices could particularly affect appetite for the real, and warned investors should not overexpose themselves to the carry trade in Brazil's currency. With interest rates near zero in many developed economies, investors have been borrowing money cheaply abroad to pour into higher-yielding assets in Brazil, where interest rates remain among the world's highest at 12 percent.
В State Street Global Advisors полагают,что реструктуризация долгов Греции неминуема.Шансы Ирландии на реструктуризацию долгов составляют 30%.
LONDON, May 12 (Reuters) — A Greek debt restructuring is inevitable and recovery estimates of up to 60 cents a euro are optimistic, the global head of fixed income at State Street Global Advisors said on Thursday. «We might actually think that in some cases the 50 to 60 cent (on the euro trading) price is optimistic… there may be a greater need for restructuring,» Kevin Anderson, who leads a team running $375 billion in fixed income assets, said. State Street, the world's third largest institutional investor, stopped investing in Greek sovereign debt last June after many sovereign debt indices excluded the country's debt. Anderson said Greek sovereign bonds are currently in «limbo» because they have dropped out of most developed market indices and do not classify as emerging market debt either. Greece is waiting to find out if it will get the fifth aid instalment from a 110 billion euro ($153.7 billion) bailout offered by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund last year.
Without the next 12 billion euro tranche, Greece would default. The IMF and EU officials are also considering more favourable terms to avoid a debt restructuring. State Street is also underweight in the debt of Portugal and Ireland, while keeping neutral on Spain, which Anderson said is unlikely to «be tipped over the edge» into default.
LUCK OF THE IRISH? State Street's Head of Fundamental Equity Chris Johns, who joined the firm following its purchase of Bank of Ireland's funds unit in January, said Ireland had a 30 percent chance of servicing its debt without defaulting.
«I would say that we are probably one cyclical slowdown away from a default. All bets are off in the periphery if over the next couple of years… an unexpected shock causes a global slowdown,» Johns said. And European authorities will fail to resolve the crisis so long as they try to fix the problem by lending money rather than giving it to the countries in need, Johns said. «Ultimately I think the markets are saying this has to end with a cheque being written. Solvency is about somebody giving somebody money not somebody lending some money,» he said
МИНИСТР ФИНАНСОВ ГЕРМАНИИ ГОВОРИТ:ДЛЯ ПРЕДОСТАВЛЕНИЯ НОВОГО ТРАНША ПОМОЩИ ГРЕЦИИ,НУЖНЫ ЧЕТКИЕ УСЛОВИЯ
BERLIN, May 12 (Reuters) — German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Thursday any fresh aid to Greece would have to be tied to clear conditions. «Obviously I'm aware of the considerable unrest caused by the reports of the (Greek) interest rate developments on the financial markets and all these questions,» Schaeuble said. If it turned out that Greece could not return to financial markets in the planned timeframe, it would be up to the country to take further steps.
«We will not be able to approve additional measures without clear conditions,» Schaeuble said. Greece aims to return to financial markets next year, though few observers consider that likely. In a speech in the lower house of parliament, Schaeuble said Germany would back a 78 million euro aid package for Portugal. He said Germany would only make decisions on further Greek aid after inspectors from the IMF and EU completed their reports on the country's compliance with the conditions of its bailout.
Фунт Британии может получить сильную поддержку за счет Китая.Полагают в Bank of New York Mellon
Такое мнение высказал валютный стратег Bank of New York Mellon господин Simon Derrick.По его идее, фунт может получить сильную поддержку, после того как Китай дал понять, что намерен активнее заняться диверсификацией своих ЗВР, а в условиях страха китайцев по поводу возможного падения доллара и неопределенной ситуации в Еврозоне, Китай может начать увеличивать долю фунтов в своих ЗВР.
12May11 RTRS-FXNEWS-China can help sterling's rise-Bank of NY Sterling is set to rise further against the euro, and China could help, says Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon. The British pound could be an alternative reserve currency for China after the government expressed concerns about dollars and euros, Derrick says. "(China's) relative modest weightings in the pound and the fact that sterling remains over 20 percent below its long run average against the euro would seem to make a compelling argument for increasing their exposure," he says in a note. «If this is true for China then other reserve managers may find the case equally compelling.»
Промышленное производство в Британии увеличлось на 0.2% (м/м).Меньше чем ожидалось.
UK Mar Mfg Output +0.2% On Mo, +2.7% On Yr UK Mar Mfg Output Was Forecast At +0.4% MM, +2.9% YY UK Mar Industrial Production +0.3% On Mo; +0.7% On Yr UK Mar Indus Production Forecast +0.8% MM, +1.1% YY UK 3Mo Indus Production Estimated At 0.4% In First GDP Estimate — ONS UK 3Mo Indus Production Revision Has «Minimal» Impact On GDP — ONS
Банк Goldman Sachs планирует увеличить активы private equity fund в Китае,до 5 миллиардов юаней.
HONG KONG, May 12 (Reuters) — Goldman Sachs plans to raise up to 5 billion yuan ($770 million) for a private equity fund in China, a source familiar with the matter said on Thursday. The source added that the Wall Street bank had signed an agreement with the Beijing municipal government, which will be its first investor in the domestic fund. The Wall Street bank's CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, and global head of merchant banking, Richard Friedman, signed an agreement in Beijing on Thursday with the city's mayor, Guo Jinlong, the source said. News of the fund, a joint venture between Goldman and state-owned Capital Opportunities and Management Centre of Beijing, a unit of Beijing's municipal government, came on the same day that Morgan Stanley issued a statement announcing the launch next week of its own yuan private equity fund.
Morgan Stanley and its subsidiary, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Funds, will launch its fund in Hangzhou on May 18. China is encouraging foreign private equity firms to set up and launch yuan funds, hoping to use their international expertise to improve local corporate governance and channel money into the private sector to aid the domestic economy. Since 2009, international firms including Blackstone Group L.P., TPG and Carlyle Group have announced plans to launch yuan funds in China through partnerships with local governments or Chinese companies.
Launching yuan funds allows foreign private equity firms to access deals more easily and face less regulatory scrutiny. At the same time, they can raise money from an increasing number of wealthy Chinese seeking high returns. Previously, institutions such as Goldman and Carlyle invested in Chinese companies through offshore dollar-denominated funds. But investing and exits were often complicated by China's strict capital controls. For example, Carlyle's planned acquisition of Xugong Group Construction Machinery Co, one of China's biggest machinery makers, was shot down by the government on concerns about foreign monopolies. «The route to regulatory approval for all transactions is much simpler and faster,» said the source, discussing the advantage of yuan funds over dollar funds. Goldman declined to comment. The source declined to be named because the matter has not been disclosed publicly.
Нет необходимости реструктурировать долг Греции.Так полагают в МВФ.
May 12 (Bloomberg) — International Monetary Fund European Director Antonio Borges said that he currently sees no need for a restructuring of Greek debt. “At this point we think that Greece should be moving in the right direction where debt is sustainable,” he said at a press conference in Frankfurt today. “There is no need for any debt restructuring.” Borges said that the IMF was currently conducting a review of Greece’s adjustment program and would come to conclusions in June. “The Greek program is very ambitious. Things never go exactly as expected, there are always deviations here and there,” he said. “There have also been compensating factors.”
ДЕНЕЖНАЯ СИСТЕМА ЕВРОЗОНЫ:ИЗБЫТОЧНЫЕ РЕЗЕРВЫ БАНКОВ НА СЧЕТАХ ЕЦБ СОКРАТИЛИСЬ.СПРОС НА 1 ДНЕВНЫЕ КРЕДИТЫ УПАЛ
МВФ: БЮДЖЕТНЫЙ КРИЗИС ЕВРОЗОНЫ МОЖЕТ РАСПРОСТРАНИТЬСЯ НА КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ СТРАНЫ
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The fiscal crises in Greece, Ireland and Portugal could yet spread to other parts of the euro zone and parts of eastern Europe, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday. In its twice yearly report on the European economy, the IMF said that while financial integration had contributed to the buildup of government debts in the three crisis countries, further integration would be necessary to help the euro zone tackle its problems.
The IMF has provided loans to Greece and Ireland alongside the euro zone, and is poised to contribute to Portugal's bailout package. But it said there is a risk that the crisis will spread beyond those countries. «Strong policy responses have successfully contained the sovereign debt and financial sector troubles in the euro area periphery so far, but contagion to the core euro area, and then onward to emerging Europe, remains a tangible downside risk,» the Fund said. In particular, weak banking systems remain a threat to the financial health of euro-zone governments, and that further weakens the banks since their government bond portfolios decline in value. «Negative feedback loops between concerns about the stability of government and bank balance sheets are proving difficult to break,» the Fund said.
«And concerns about...financial sector balance sheets extend beyond the euro area periphery.» The IMF said bonds maturing in 2011 will be the equivalent of 10% of the combined economic output of Greece, Portugal and Spain, while Belgium, Ireland, and the United Kingdom will also have significantly higher «rollover needs.» «More generally, crisis-related funding pressures in high-deficit countries have forced governments to assume additional risks by shifting to shorter maturities and to rely more heavily on private syndication.» The partial integration of financial systems after the launch of the euro had contributed to the scale and duration of the fiscal crisis, while bond investors had also played their part by ignoring mounting problems. «Risk premiums remained low, so current account imbalances became wider and more persistent,» the Fund said.
«Markets showed little concern until mid-2007, ignoring solvency risk and covering large financing needs at low interest rates, which boosted self-feeding bubbles. By failing to demand higher risk premiums, markets failed to rein in this unhealthy development until it was too late for a soft landing.» The failure to charge appropriately high interest rates when lending to governments was partly due to the fact that investors «found it difficult to imagine that the euro area countries would not come to the rescue of members in trouble--particularly given the interconnectedness of their banking systems.»
However, the IMF said the euro zone should not back away from financial integration, but instead make it more complete, since that would help prevent future banking crises, and reduce the drain on government funds. A needed reduction in the number of euro-zone banks is proceeding too slowly, delaying further integration, the Fund said. «Consolidation is now occurring slowly, if at all, and often within borders.» «In many cases, restructuring has led to refocusing on the domestic market and sales of foreign operations, thus reducing financial integration.»
The Fund expects budget deficits in Greece, Ireland and Portugal to be broadly in line with government targets. It forecast that the Greek government's deficit will fall to 6.2% of gross domestic product in 2012 from 7.4% this year, that Ireland's deficit will fall to 8.9% from 10.8% and Portugal's to 5.5% from 5.6%. Over the medium term, a return to economic growth in those countries will be the key to addressing the euro zone's debt problems. «The most critical factor in the longer term is restoring GDP growth in the crisis-affected countries, with stronger roles for the tradable sector and exports, and less reliance on the non tradable sector, capital flows, and domestic demand.» To that end, the European Central Bank shouldn't raise its key interest rate too quickly, since «monetary policy in the euro area can afford to remain relatively accommodative.» «The ECB may need to extend further in time its regime of full-allotment refinancing for some of its liquidity operations, while refining its collateral framework to discourage systemic bidding, minimize distortions to market-based bank financing, and avoid moral hazard associated with unlimited liquidity provisions,» the IMF said.
МИНИСТР ФИНАНСОВ ГЕРМАНИИ ГОСПОДИН SCHAEUBLE ГОВОРИТ:ЕСТЬ ОПРЕДЕЛЕННЫЕ ОПАСЕНИЯ ПО ГРЕЦИИ
BERLIN, May 12 (Reuters) — German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told parliament on Thursday that he saw considerable concern for Greece. Schaeuble also said Germany will only make decisions on further Greek aid after the IMF and EU reports are completed. He said if it turns out that Greece cannot return to financial markets as planned it is up to Greece to provide answers. He also said Germany would not be able to approve additional measures for Greece without clear conditions.
В банке Credit Suisse полагают,что если Греция захочет покинуть Еврозону,ей придется выйти и из Евросоюза.
May 12 (Bloomberg) — Greek exit may trigger capital flight from peripheral to core Europe, requiring considerable deleveraging in periphery, Credit Suisse’s Andrew Garthwaite says. ECB owns ~EU50b of Greek bonds, EU/IMF have lent Greece EU53b; leaving euro could mean leaving EU: CS Says Greece would choose to avoid early debt restructuring, Issues in peripheral Europe ultimately manageable: CS Says underweight continental Europe, long domestic Germany, short peripheral Europe (especially Spain); sees euro weakening further
Глава Deutsche Bank AG господин Josef Ackermann полагает,что реструктуризация долгов Греции была бы огромной ошибкой
May 12 (Bloomberg) — Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said Greek debt won’t be restructured as it would be a “huge mistake” to do so. Instead the bailout package for Greece should be increased for the next two years, Ackermann said in an interview on the sidelines of a conference in St. Gallen, Switzerland today. “There is no other solution,” he said.
В банке JPMorgan считают,что реструктуризации долгов Греции не будет до 2013 года,а страна должна получить доступ к средствам фонда EFSF
May 12 (Bloomberg) — Greece will be allowed to access EFSF to cover gross funding needs in 2012 and 2013, JPMorgan’s David Mackie says. Decisions on debt restructuring to be delayed until 2013: JPM Says new package will need to provide additional EU65b funding on top of current EU110b program
МИНИСТР ФИНАНСОВ ГЕРМАНИИ НАМЕРЕН ПРОВЕСТИ РАССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ПО ПОВОДУ СЛУХОВ О ВЫХОДЕ ГРЕЦИИ ИЗ ЕВРОЗОНЫ
Об этом сообщает газета «Die Zeit».Речь идет о статье в немецком издании «Der Spiegel» от 6 мая, где сообщалось о готовности Греции выйти из Еврозоны, при этом издание ссылалось на источники в Еврокомиссии.По этому поводу, министр финансов Германии господин Wolfgang Schaeuble требует провести расследование на предмет того, действительно ли кто то из чиновников давал для «Der Spiegel» подобную информацию.
May 12 (Bloomberg) — The German Finance Ministry is investigating whether one of its officials leaked a study warning against Greece leaving the euro area, Die Zeit newspaper reported, citing a ministry spokesman it didn’t identify. A May 6 article in Der Spiegel magazine quoted from what it said was a ministry paper that revealed a meeting of European finance officials in Luxembourg that day on how to deal with the Greek debt crisis. The report sent the euro lower. The internal document was stored on a Finance Ministry server to which 28 officials had access, Die Zeit reported. The leak was a slap for German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, whose pro-European stance in the debt crisis is opposed by some in the German government, the weekly said.
ЗАЯВЛЕНИЯ ЯПОНИИ И ИНДИИ ПО ПОВОДУ СИТУАЦИИ С ГОСДОЛГОМ США И ПЕРСПЕКТИВАМИ ДОЛГОВОГО РЫНКА США.
10:29 12May11 RTRS-JAPAN WILL 'CLOSELY WATCH' U.S. DEBT CEILING DEBATE, NO CHANGE IN RESERVE MANAGEMENT PLANS-JAPAN'S DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER
10:29 12May11 RTRS-MAKES SENSE FOR JAPAN TO TRY TO DIVERSIFY RESERVES TO REDUCE EXPOSURE TO U.S. DEBT-JAPAN DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER
10:29 12May11 RTRS-INDIA HAS 'NO CHOICE' BUT TO KEEP INVESTING IN U.S. TREASURIES — INDIA CENTRAL BANK OFFICIAL
10:29 12May11 RTRS-INDIA CBANK OFFICIAL SAYS U.S. DEBT IS SAFE AND LIQUID «AS OF NOW», EUROZONE IS UNCERTAIN 10:34
TOKYO/MUMBAI, May 12 (Reuters) — Asia's reserve-rich nations see no viable option but to keep on purchasing U.S. government debt despite their uneasiness about Washington's fraught political battle over public spending. Interviews with senior officials from four leading Asian economies — including Japan and China, the two largest foreign holders of U.S. debt — showed they were concerned that U.S. lawmakers would fail to authorize additional government borrowing before a $14.3 trillion debt limit is reached.
But they still considered U.S. Treasury debt the safest bet, particularly with so much uncertainty surrounding Europe's sovereign debt situation. None of the Asian officials interviewed by Reuters said their reserve investment plans would change right away, even if the U.S. Congress does not raise the debt ceiling this week. The debt limit is expected to be reached on Monday, and the Obama administration has warned of «catastrophic» consequences if the government cannot pay its bills. «Our stance remains unchanged on foreign reserves management,» Japan's Deputy Finance Minister, Fumihiko Igarashi, told Reuters. «The U.S. is making the most of having the dollar as key reserve currency and such a situation would not change immediately,» he said. «But nothing will last forever, as with any political and economic conditions. We will closely watch developments» in Congress. Igarashi said Japan should aim to diversify its reserves to reduce Treasuries exposure, perhaps by increasing gold holdings or raising the percentage invested in euro assets. But he acknowledged that a portfolio shift would be «quite difficult… because selling Treasuries would hurt our own assets.»
http://www.bloomberg.com/ (C) Источник
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Такая ситуация наблюдается впервые за всю историю опроса — с июля 2009 года. “Большая игра в стимулирование экономики окончена”, — сообщил Билл О’Коннор, основатель хедж-фонда Sagg Main Capital в Нью-Йорке, принимавший участие в опросе. Он объяснил, что перекладывается в наличные средства, поскольку Федеральная резервная система США сворачивает программу покупки облигаций, а американские конгрессмены стремятся сократить бюджет. Менее четырех из каждых 10 респондентов утверждают, что экономическая ситуация в США и мире улучшается, тогда как в январе такое мнение высказывали порядка 50 процентов опрошенных.
Рост американской экономики замедлился до 1,8 процента в первом квартале этого года с 3,1 процента в четвертом квартале 2010 года. По данным Национальной ассоциации риэлторов, цены на жилье за первый квартал 2011 года снизились в более чем 75 процентах городов США. Настороженные прогнозы по акциям Опрос, проводившийся 9-10 мая, также показал, что аппетит инвесторов к акциям угасает. Увеличить вложения в фондовые рынки в ближайшие полгода планируют двое из каждых пяти респондентов против трех из пяти в прошлом опросе, который проводился в январе.
Особенно заметно уменьшился энтузиазм американских инвесторов: среди них нарастить вложения в акции собираются всего 37 процентов против 57 процентов в ходе предыдущего опроса. Более половины респондентов прогнозируют дальнейшее падение цен на серебро в ближайшие шесть месяцев. Шестнадцать процентов опрошенных назвали сырьевые товары в числе рынков, которые в ближайший год принесут инвесторам наименьший доход. Доля респондентов, придерживающихся такого мнения, увеличилась более чем вдвое по сравнению с январем.
На сырьевых рынках “сформировался пузырь, и велико количество непрофессиональных инвесторов”, отмечает сейлз- менеджер KNG Securities LLP в Лондоне Кен Уэлби, принимавший участие в опросе. По его словам, “спрос не успевает за ростом цен, который мы наблюдаем”. По-прежнему первые Хотя инвестиционная привлекательность США снижается, опрос показал, что страна все же сохраняет лидерство в этом отношении. Доля респондентов, указавших Соединенные Штаты в качестве страны, где в следующем году ожидаются самые высокие доходы от инвестиций, составила 31 процент против 37 процентов в январе.
Следом за США идут Бразилия и Китай — на них указал каждый четвертый участник опроса. Пятнадцать процентов назвали в числе наиболее привлекательных стран Японию — это почти в два раза больше, чем во время январского опроса, до разрушительного землетрясения и цунами, в результате которых, по данным на 7 мая, погибли или пропали без вести 24837 человек, а фондовый рынок страны рухнул. “Мы уверены, что японцы решают свои проблемы и доходы не разочаруют инвесторов, — сказал Уэлби. — Этот рынок выглядит привлекательно с точки зрения относительной стоимости”.
Европейские рынки Большинство респондентов рассматривают Евросоюз как один из рынков, где на протяжении следующего года ожидаются самые низкие доходы от инвестиций. Такой точки зрения придерживаются 38 процентов опрошенных — практически столько же, сколько в январе. Вторым худшим для вложений регионом оказался охваченный волнениями Ближний Восток — на него указал почти каждый четвертый инвестор. В прошлый раз такое мнение высказали менее 10 процентов респондентов. Ежеквартальный опрос международных инвесторов, трейдеров и аналитиков, которые являются подписчиками Блумберг, проводился компанией Selzer & Co. из Айовы. Допустимая погрешность составляет плюс-минус 2,8 процентного пункта.
ИНСПЕКТОРЫ ЕС И МВФ ОЦЕНИВАЮТ РИСКИ СОКРАЩЕНИЯ ПОСТУПЛЕНИЙ В ГРЕЦИИ КАК «СЛИШКОМ ВЫСОКИЕ» И ТРЕБУЮТ БОЛЬШЕГО СОКРАЩЕНИЯ БЮДЖЕТНЫХ РАСХОДОВ, – СООБЩАЕТ ИСТОЧНИК В ПРАВИТЕЛЬСТВЕ ГРЕЦИИ
РАЗ, ДВА, ТРИ, ЧЕТЫРЕ - ИСПАНИЯ ОТКРЫВАЙ ДВЕРЬ ПОШИРЕ, ПЯТЬ, ШЕСТЬ, СЕМЬ, ВОСЕМЬ - YEILD CURVE ПРИДЕТ В ГОСТИ
Слов будет мало, а графиков много. Ниже будут представлены графики кривой доходности Испании, сравнение с кривой доходностей Германии, графики доходностей по отдельным бумагам, спредам, графики CDS, графики долга и безработицы.
Кривая доходностей Испании:
Графики доходностей по срокам:
Графики спредов доходностей Испания VS Германия
Графики кривой CDS на Испанию
Графики CDS на Испанию по срокам:
Графики спредов CDS на Испанию и Германию:
Долг Испании в графиках
Безработица в Испании
закончить хочется той самой считалочкой, которая «вдохновила» на название этого топика:
КИТАЙ ПОВЫСИЛ РЕЗЕРВНЫЕ ТРЕБОВАНИЯ ДЛЯ БАНКОВ НА 50 БП С 18 МАЯ
ПЕКИН, 12 мая. /Dow Jones/. Центральный банк Китая заявил в четверг, что он повысит резервные требования для банков на 0,50 процентного пункта, в пятый раз за этот год, для борьбы с инфляционными опасениями за счет того, что ликвидность будет заперта в банковской системе. Повышение, которое вступит в силу с 18 мая, произошло после того, как индекс потребительских цен /CPI/ в стране в апреле вырос на 5,3% против роста на 5,4% в марте. Народный банк Китая в прошлом году повышал резервные требования шесть раз, а также четырежды повысил процентные ставки по кредитам и депозитам с октября. Предыдущее повышение резервных требований вступило в силу 21 апреля, а повышение процентных ставок – 6 апреля. Официальный уровень резервных требований в Китае для большинства крупных банков теперь возрастет до 21% после того, как мера вступит в силу. С конца прошлого года центральный банк требовал от некоторых банков отложить дополнительные резервы сверх официальных резервных требований.
ГОСПОДИН ДЖИМ О'НЕЙЛ ВЕРИТ В "МЯГКУЮ ПОСАДКУ КИТАЯ" И ЖДЕТ ОКОНЧАНИЯ ПОЛИТИКИ УЖЕСТОЧЕНИЯ СО СТОРОНЫ ЦБ КНР
Самый оптимистичный экономист в мире (так в шутку называют коллеги господина Jim O'Neill), а ныне управляющий фондом Goldman Sachs Asset Management, призывает не драматизировать ситуацию, имея в в виду падение цен на сырье и спад в китайской экономике.По мнению управляющего O'Neill, спад в экономике Китая оказался глубже чем ожидалось и поэтому темпы роста ВВП Китая могут упасть до 8%.В этой связи, китайские власти вынуждены будут прекратить политику ужесточения денежно-кредитной политики, так как дальнейшее повышение процентных ставок и ограничения в отношении китайских банков, будет только увеличивать риски еще большего экономического спада.На основании этих доводов, господин O'Neill пришел к выводу, что уже во второй половине года, ужесточение монетарной политики в Китае завершится, что по сути будет означать так называему «мягкую посадку».
Рассуждая о дальнейших перспективах, господин O'Neill отмечает, что падение цен на сырье не стало чем то неожиданным, а лично его удивило только то, что цены на сырье так сильно росли в первые месяцы этого года, не принимая во внимание явное замедление в Китае.Господин O'Neill полагает, что когда станет очевидно, что Китай перестал ужесточать политику, и инфляция начнет снижаться (он считает, что темпы роста потребительских цен замедлятся до 4%) это вызовет начало биржевого ралли в Китае и стабилизацию сырьевых цен, а возможно и новой фазы роста.Господин O'Neill, с присущим ему оптимизмом добавил, что "… как только Народный Банк Китая сможет прекратить повышение ставок, мы все будем счастливы наблюдать за тем, как жизнь стала еще лучше..." имея видимо в виду, жизнь на финансовом рынке.
Кстати господин O'Neill рассуждал на тему влияния Китая на мировую экономику и в частности на экономики стран BRICS.Учитывая, что управляющий O'Neill верит в «мягкую посадку» Китая, то значит он верит и в перспективы стран BRICS.Особенно господин Jim O'Neill выдели Россию и ответил критикам (которые рекомендуют ему исключить Россию из категории BRICS за несоответствие), что тактически, рассматривает российский финансовый рынок, как самый интересный и перспективный из всех растущих рынков.
HONG KONG, May 12 (Reuters) — China's economic growth could slow to 8 percent, Goldman Sach's Jim O'Neill said on Thursday, as economic data and a drop in commodity prices point to Beijing ending its monetary tightening policy sometime this year. The slowdown to around 8 percent would likely occur in the second half of this year, adding that given the data out this week, it could occur as early as the second-quarter, O'Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management told a small media gathering in Hong Kong.
«It is my judgement that the Chinese economy is probably slowing down more than people realize,» he said, adding that as a result, he was not surprised that commodity prices are coming under pressure. As evidence, he cited the Goldman Sachs China Activity Index, the firm's propriperary indicator of GDP, which shows that the momentum of Chinese growth has slowed, and that slowdown was supported by economic data reported this week.
«And I suspect that China is going to slow down to around 8 pct GDP growth. If I'm right, that means sometime in the 2nd half this year, Chinese inflation will not be a problem, and will come back down to around 4 percent,» he said. «And the PBOC will be able to stop tightening monetary policy and we can all live happily ever after.» China's industrial output growth eased much more than expected in April to suggest the world's second-biggest economy is cooling, even as the inflation rate came in a shade lower than the 32-month-high reached in March.
«It's not surprising at all that commodities prices are coming under pressure,» he said. «The surprise is that they rose so much earlier in the year.» A stop to tightening, he suspected would result in a China stock rally.
BRIIC? BRICK?? As he has done before, O'Neill outlined a set of slides that shows how it is no longer appropriate label BRIC nations as «emerging markets.» Those economies are what he calls «growth economies» now, while setting aside 11 nations he refers to as proper «emerging economies.» A lot of speculation has gone into what country could be added to the now famous BRIC acronym, an acronym O'Neill says he dreamed up and ever since it «has literally changed my life.» Several times during the roundtable, O'Neill, wearing a gray suit and drinking a Diet Coke to fight jet lag, referred to himself jokingly as «Mr. Bric.»
«To be a BRIC, you've got to be at least 3 percent of (world) GDP, with potential of being 5 percent. It's very hard to see any country in that category, Indonesia and Mexico would have to do some spectacular things to get there. Indonesia would have to grow by idiotic amounts to get even close.» O'Neill added that being bigger than Turkey does not qualify Indonesia as a BRIC, and that Russia is still three times the size of the Southeast Asian nation. «Why on earth do people call Korea an emerging market?» he asked. O'Neill closed the session with his thoughts on Russia. «I get an email every day on how I should drop Russia from the BRICs. And it's like a reverse indicator. Russia is cheap,» he said. «Tactically, I find Russia to be the most interesting of the growth markets.»
ВВП ГЕРМАНИИ В 1-М КВ С КОРРЕКЦИЕЙ +1.5% К/К, +4.9% Г/Г, ПРОГНОЗ БЫЛ +0.9% К/К, +4.2% Г/Г
В то же время квартальный показатель за последние три месяца прошлого года пересмотрен с ухудшением: +3,8% к/к после 4,0% к/к. По мнению аналитиков немецкого статистического ведомства, рост ВВП в первом квартале нынешнего года вызван положительными изменениями в таких сферах национальной экономики, как производство пром. оборудования, строительство, а также капиталовложения потребителей (покупка товаров длительного пользования). В статистическом отчете указывается, что уровень ВВП в 1-м квартале 2011 года превзошел докризисные показатели на уровне 2008 г.
May 13 (Bloomberg) — German economic growth accelerated more than economists forecast in the first quarter as booming
exports fueled domestic spending.
Gross domestic product, adjusted for seasonal effects, jumped 1.5 percent from the fourth quarter, when it rose 0.4 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists had forecast growth of 0.9 percent, according to the
median of 30 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, GDP surged 5.2 percent, the biggest increase recorded
since German reunification two decades ago.
Europe’s largest economy is driving growth in the 17-nation euro region, putting pressure on the European Central Bank to
keep raising interest rates even as peripheral countries such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal remain mired in a sovereign debt
crisis. With German unemployment at a 19-year low helping to boost consumer spending, the government predicts growth of 2.6 percent this year after last year’s record 3.6 percent expansion.
“The recovery has become more broad-based,” said Andreas Scheuerle, an economist at Dekabank in Frankfurt. “While the
German economy certainly won’t keep this fantastic pace, the outlook is pretty rosy.”
Euro-area economic growth probably accelerated to 0.6 percent in the first quarter from 0.3 percent in the fourth,
another Bloomberg survey shows. The European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg will release that report at 11 a.m. today.
Export Boom
Company investment, construction and household consumption all contributed to first-quarter GDP growth, the statistics
office said. With exports and imports both expanding, net trade made a smaller contribution to growth than domestic demand, it
said.
German exports surged 7.3 percent in March to the highest monthly value since records began in 1950, and industrial
production increased for a third month as construction surged. Unemployment fell below 3 million for the first time in almost
19 years in April in adjusted terms. Germany’s Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world’s largest maker of luxury vehicles, earned more money per car than ever before in its 95-year history, the company said May 4. BASF SE, the world’s biggest chemical company, last week reported first-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates.
“If anything, the risks for German growth are on the upside,” said James Nixon, chief European economist at Societe
Generale SA in London. “Germany has done its homework, has put in place some painful reforms and is benefiting now.”
Some countries are still struggling to revive their economies after the region’s debt crisis forced governments to
toughen austerity measures. Greece’s credit rating was cut two levels this week to B from BB- by Standard & Poor’s, which said
further reductions are possible as the risk of default rises.
“Germany is on a solid upward trend while other European countries are still lagging,” said Heinrich Bayer, an economist
at Deutsche Postbank AG in Bonn. “Risks stem in particular from a possible renewed spike in oil prices and fiscal consolidation
efforts, which could hamper growth.”
John Taylor,владелец крупнейшего валютного фонда в мире полагает:Ралли в рискованных активах подошло к концу
ohn Taylor владелец компании FX Concepts LLC, которая управляет самыми крупными в мире, валютными фондами.На этот раз господин Taylor высказал точку зрения, что ралли в рискованных активах, которое длится уже третий год, близится к завершению.По его мнению, такие выводы можно сделать на основании статистической модели, которой руководствуются управляющие из FX Concepts LLC, а модель предсказывает окончание периода «покупки рисков».Аргументы — разрастание суверенного кризиса в Еврозоне, спад в мировой экономике и чахлое состояние банковской системы.Ранее, господин Taylor уже высказывал схожую точку зрения, последний раз прогноз, подобный нынешнему (об окончании ралли в рискованных активах) он высказывал осенью прошлого года, однако позже признался, что его прогноз оказался ошибочным.На этот раз господин Taylor уверен в своей правоте и делает ставку на падение курса евро и общий роста американского доллара к высокодоходным валютам.
May 12 (Bloomberg) — John Taylor, founder of the world’s largest currency-hedge fund, said the rally in higher-yielding assets is coming to an end with Europe’s sovereign debt crisis resurfacing, growth sluggish and banking systems unsteady. “This is the end of the nice slow moving risk rally that has lulled us pleasantly to sleep since the first half of 2009,” Taylor, chairman of New York-based FX Concepts LLC, said in an interview. “This warning is worthy of a brass band and bright lights as the other side of this low volatility rally will most likely be a scary descent that will have a very negative impact on markets. Our statistical models say we are about at the end of the road for risk.”
Подробнее здесь: noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adLeCl6vQzt4&pos=3
Shanghai Gold Exchange повышает маржинальные требования по фьючерсам на серебро до 19%
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — The Shanghai Gold Exchange said Thursday it will raise margin requirements for silver futures as part of risk-control measures, its third round of increases in less than a month, according to a statement posted on the exchange's web site. Margin requirements will rise to 19% of a contract's value from 18%, while the daily price limit for the one kilogram silver forward contract will rise to 13% from 10% above or below the previous session's close. The new trading requirements will be effective from May 13. The exchange announced previous rounds of increases to margins and price limits on May 5 and April 25.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shanghai-in-third-silver-margin-hike-in-month-2011-05-12?link=MW_latest_news
МВФ ПРЕДОСТЕРЕГАЕТ: БУМ В ЛАТИНСКОЙ АМЕРИКЕ МОЖЕТ ЗАКОНЧИТЬСЯ ПОЛНОМАСШТАБНЫМ КРИЗИСОМ.
Такое необычайно драматичное заявление сделал один из директоров МВФ, господин Nicolas Eyzaguirre.По его словам, нынешний экономический бум в регионе, который привел к перегреву, может привести к полномасштабному кризису, в том случае, если правительства стран Латинской Америки не смогут взять под контроль инфляцию.
RIO DE JANEIRO, May 12 (Reuters) — Latin America's economic boom could end in a «full-blown» crisis unless the region's governments properly manage the situation, the International Monetary Fund's top regional official said in an unusually stark warning to both policymakers and investors on Thursday. Nicolas Eyzaguirre, the IMF's director for the western hemisphere, said that Latin America's economic fundamentals appear to be in good shape. Yet he urged policymakers to take steps to keep their economies from overheating, and set aside as much of the windfall from the current boom as possible.
Otherwise, he told a conference of central bankers in Rio de Janeiro, the region could see its currencies dramatically weaken as a result of a sudden external shock — such as, he said, a fall in global commodities prices or an unexpectedly fast increase in interest rates in the United States. Eyzaguirre honed in on Brazil, saying that the government of President Dilma Rousseff should continue to «rein in the economy through an array of measures to avoid excessive exuberance, or it could end in tears.» «If a big correction comes into the fore… capital could stop coming into the country all of a sudden and you could have a big financial crisis,» he added. Eyzaguirre's remarks amounted to one of the strongest warnings to date by a senior official of the near-term dangers posed by Latin America's recent run of prosperity.
While he tempered his speech with praise for policymakers' efforts so far, he also criticized Latin America's record of overspending during good economic times. He warned investors not to overexpose themselves to the so-called carry trade in Brazil's real currency, which he said could face weakness ahead. Eyzaguirre's comments come as the real and some other regional currencies have weakened in recent days in tandem with global commodities prices. Concerns over demand in China, a main buyer of Latin America's commodities, have prompted some to ask whether regional growth will shift into a slower phase. «There is a very good chance that prices could change quickly and abruptly,» said Jorge Knauer, treasurer of Banco Prosper in Rio de Janeiro.
«The drop in commodities prices has the same impact as a reduction in liquidity through interest rates. When commodities fall, the region's currencies will fall with them.» Others saw longer-term reasons for concern. «It sounds like he's asking whether the region is doing enough to prepare for the proverbial rainy day,» said Gray Newman, head Latin America economist for Morgan Stanley. «The risk is that policymakers get too comfortable (with growth) and don't feel the kind of urgency to really prepare for what might be ahead.» Eyzaguirre said a moderate correction in global commodities prices could particularly affect appetite for the real, and warned investors should not overexpose themselves to the carry trade in Brazil's currency. With interest rates near zero in many developed economies, investors have been borrowing money cheaply abroad to pour into higher-yielding assets in Brazil, where interest rates remain among the world's highest at 12 percent.
В State Street Global Advisors полагают,что реструктуризация долгов Греции неминуема.Шансы Ирландии на реструктуризацию долгов составляют 30%.
LONDON, May 12 (Reuters) — A Greek debt restructuring is inevitable and recovery estimates of up to 60 cents a euro are optimistic, the global head of fixed income at State Street Global Advisors said on Thursday. «We might actually think that in some cases the 50 to 60 cent (on the euro trading) price is optimistic… there may be a greater need for restructuring,» Kevin Anderson, who leads a team running $375 billion in fixed income assets, said. State Street, the world's third largest institutional investor, stopped investing in Greek sovereign debt last June after many sovereign debt indices excluded the country's debt. Anderson said Greek sovereign bonds are currently in «limbo» because they have dropped out of most developed market indices and do not classify as emerging market debt either. Greece is waiting to find out if it will get the fifth aid instalment from a 110 billion euro ($153.7 billion) bailout offered by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund last year.
Without the next 12 billion euro tranche, Greece would default. The IMF and EU officials are also considering more favourable terms to avoid a debt restructuring. State Street is also underweight in the debt of Portugal and Ireland, while keeping neutral on Spain, which Anderson said is unlikely to «be tipped over the edge» into default.
LUCK OF THE IRISH? State Street's Head of Fundamental Equity Chris Johns, who joined the firm following its purchase of Bank of Ireland's funds unit in January, said Ireland had a 30 percent chance of servicing its debt without defaulting.
«I would say that we are probably one cyclical slowdown away from a default. All bets are off in the periphery if over the next couple of years… an unexpected shock causes a global slowdown,» Johns said. And European authorities will fail to resolve the crisis so long as they try to fix the problem by lending money rather than giving it to the countries in need, Johns said. «Ultimately I think the markets are saying this has to end with a cheque being written. Solvency is about somebody giving somebody money not somebody lending some money,» he said
МИНИСТР ФИНАНСОВ ГЕРМАНИИ ГОВОРИТ:ДЛЯ ПРЕДОСТАВЛЕНИЯ НОВОГО ТРАНША ПОМОЩИ ГРЕЦИИ,НУЖНЫ ЧЕТКИЕ УСЛОВИЯ
BERLIN, May 12 (Reuters) — German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Thursday any fresh aid to Greece would have to be tied to clear conditions. «Obviously I'm aware of the considerable unrest caused by the reports of the (Greek) interest rate developments on the financial markets and all these questions,» Schaeuble said. If it turned out that Greece could not return to financial markets in the planned timeframe, it would be up to the country to take further steps.
«We will not be able to approve additional measures without clear conditions,» Schaeuble said. Greece aims to return to financial markets next year, though few observers consider that likely. In a speech in the lower house of parliament, Schaeuble said Germany would back a 78 million euro aid package for Portugal. He said Germany would only make decisions on further Greek aid after inspectors from the IMF and EU completed their reports on the country's compliance with the conditions of its bailout.
Фунт Британии может получить сильную поддержку за счет Китая.Полагают в Bank of New York Mellon
Такое мнение высказал валютный стратег Bank of New York Mellon господин Simon Derrick.По его идее, фунт может получить сильную поддержку, после того как Китай дал понять, что намерен активнее заняться диверсификацией своих ЗВР, а в условиях страха китайцев по поводу возможного падения доллара и неопределенной ситуации в Еврозоне, Китай может начать увеличивать долю фунтов в своих ЗВР.
12May11 RTRS-FXNEWS-China can help sterling's rise-Bank of NY Sterling is set to rise further against the euro, and China could help, says Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon. The British pound could be an alternative reserve currency for China after the government expressed concerns about dollars and euros, Derrick says. "(China's) relative modest weightings in the pound and the fact that sterling remains over 20 percent below its long run average against the euro would seem to make a compelling argument for increasing their exposure," he says in a note. «If this is true for China then other reserve managers may find the case equally compelling.»
Промышленное производство в Британии увеличлось на 0.2% (м/м).Меньше чем ожидалось.
UK Mar Mfg Output +0.2% On Mo, +2.7% On Yr UK Mar Mfg Output Was Forecast At +0.4% MM, +2.9% YY UK Mar Industrial Production +0.3% On Mo; +0.7% On Yr UK Mar Indus Production Forecast +0.8% MM, +1.1% YY UK 3Mo Indus Production Estimated At 0.4% In First GDP Estimate — ONS UK 3Mo Indus Production Revision Has «Minimal» Impact On GDP — ONS
Банк Goldman Sachs планирует увеличить активы private equity fund в Китае,до 5 миллиардов юаней.
HONG KONG, May 12 (Reuters) — Goldman Sachs plans to raise up to 5 billion yuan ($770 million) for a private equity fund in China, a source familiar with the matter said on Thursday. The source added that the Wall Street bank had signed an agreement with the Beijing municipal government, which will be its first investor in the domestic fund. The Wall Street bank's CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, and global head of merchant banking, Richard Friedman, signed an agreement in Beijing on Thursday with the city's mayor, Guo Jinlong, the source said. News of the fund, a joint venture between Goldman and state-owned Capital Opportunities and Management Centre of Beijing, a unit of Beijing's municipal government, came on the same day that Morgan Stanley issued a statement announcing the launch next week of its own yuan private equity fund.
Morgan Stanley and its subsidiary, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Funds, will launch its fund in Hangzhou on May 18. China is encouraging foreign private equity firms to set up and launch yuan funds, hoping to use their international expertise to improve local corporate governance and channel money into the private sector to aid the domestic economy. Since 2009, international firms including Blackstone Group L.P., TPG and Carlyle Group have announced plans to launch yuan funds in China through partnerships with local governments or Chinese companies.
Launching yuan funds allows foreign private equity firms to access deals more easily and face less regulatory scrutiny. At the same time, they can raise money from an increasing number of wealthy Chinese seeking high returns. Previously, institutions such as Goldman and Carlyle invested in Chinese companies through offshore dollar-denominated funds. But investing and exits were often complicated by China's strict capital controls. For example, Carlyle's planned acquisition of Xugong Group Construction Machinery Co, one of China's biggest machinery makers, was shot down by the government on concerns about foreign monopolies. «The route to regulatory approval for all transactions is much simpler and faster,» said the source, discussing the advantage of yuan funds over dollar funds. Goldman declined to comment. The source declined to be named because the matter has not been disclosed publicly.
Нет необходимости реструктурировать долг Греции.Так полагают в МВФ.
May 12 (Bloomberg) — International Monetary Fund European Director Antonio Borges said that he currently sees no need for a restructuring of Greek debt. “At this point we think that Greece should be moving in the right direction where debt is sustainable,” he said at a press conference in Frankfurt today. “There is no need for any debt restructuring.” Borges said that the IMF was currently conducting a review of Greece’s adjustment program and would come to conclusions in June. “The Greek program is very ambitious. Things never go exactly as expected, there are always deviations here and there,” he said. “There have also been compensating factors.”
ДЕНЕЖНАЯ СИСТЕМА ЕВРОЗОНЫ:ИЗБЫТОЧНЫЕ РЕЗЕРВЫ БАНКОВ НА СЧЕТАХ ЕЦБ СОКРАТИЛИСЬ.СПРОС НА 1 ДНЕВНЫЕ КРЕДИТЫ УПАЛ
МВФ: БЮДЖЕТНЫЙ КРИЗИС ЕВРОЗОНЫ МОЖЕТ РАСПРОСТРАНИТЬСЯ НА КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ СТРАНЫ
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The fiscal crises in Greece, Ireland and Portugal could yet spread to other parts of the euro zone and parts of eastern Europe, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday. In its twice yearly report on the European economy, the IMF said that while financial integration had contributed to the buildup of government debts in the three crisis countries, further integration would be necessary to help the euro zone tackle its problems.
The IMF has provided loans to Greece and Ireland alongside the euro zone, and is poised to contribute to Portugal's bailout package. But it said there is a risk that the crisis will spread beyond those countries. «Strong policy responses have successfully contained the sovereign debt and financial sector troubles in the euro area periphery so far, but contagion to the core euro area, and then onward to emerging Europe, remains a tangible downside risk,» the Fund said. In particular, weak banking systems remain a threat to the financial health of euro-zone governments, and that further weakens the banks since their government bond portfolios decline in value. «Negative feedback loops between concerns about the stability of government and bank balance sheets are proving difficult to break,» the Fund said.
«And concerns about...financial sector balance sheets extend beyond the euro area periphery.» The IMF said bonds maturing in 2011 will be the equivalent of 10% of the combined economic output of Greece, Portugal and Spain, while Belgium, Ireland, and the United Kingdom will also have significantly higher «rollover needs.» «More generally, crisis-related funding pressures in high-deficit countries have forced governments to assume additional risks by shifting to shorter maturities and to rely more heavily on private syndication.» The partial integration of financial systems after the launch of the euro had contributed to the scale and duration of the fiscal crisis, while bond investors had also played their part by ignoring mounting problems. «Risk premiums remained low, so current account imbalances became wider and more persistent,» the Fund said.
«Markets showed little concern until mid-2007, ignoring solvency risk and covering large financing needs at low interest rates, which boosted self-feeding bubbles. By failing to demand higher risk premiums, markets failed to rein in this unhealthy development until it was too late for a soft landing.» The failure to charge appropriately high interest rates when lending to governments was partly due to the fact that investors «found it difficult to imagine that the euro area countries would not come to the rescue of members in trouble--particularly given the interconnectedness of their banking systems.»
However, the IMF said the euro zone should not back away from financial integration, but instead make it more complete, since that would help prevent future banking crises, and reduce the drain on government funds. A needed reduction in the number of euro-zone banks is proceeding too slowly, delaying further integration, the Fund said. «Consolidation is now occurring slowly, if at all, and often within borders.» «In many cases, restructuring has led to refocusing on the domestic market and sales of foreign operations, thus reducing financial integration.»
The Fund expects budget deficits in Greece, Ireland and Portugal to be broadly in line with government targets. It forecast that the Greek government's deficit will fall to 6.2% of gross domestic product in 2012 from 7.4% this year, that Ireland's deficit will fall to 8.9% from 10.8% and Portugal's to 5.5% from 5.6%. Over the medium term, a return to economic growth in those countries will be the key to addressing the euro zone's debt problems. «The most critical factor in the longer term is restoring GDP growth in the crisis-affected countries, with stronger roles for the tradable sector and exports, and less reliance on the non tradable sector, capital flows, and domestic demand.» To that end, the European Central Bank shouldn't raise its key interest rate too quickly, since «monetary policy in the euro area can afford to remain relatively accommodative.» «The ECB may need to extend further in time its regime of full-allotment refinancing for some of its liquidity operations, while refining its collateral framework to discourage systemic bidding, minimize distortions to market-based bank financing, and avoid moral hazard associated with unlimited liquidity provisions,» the IMF said.
МИНИСТР ФИНАНСОВ ГЕРМАНИИ ГОСПОДИН SCHAEUBLE ГОВОРИТ:ЕСТЬ ОПРЕДЕЛЕННЫЕ ОПАСЕНИЯ ПО ГРЕЦИИ
BERLIN, May 12 (Reuters) — German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told parliament on Thursday that he saw considerable concern for Greece. Schaeuble also said Germany will only make decisions on further Greek aid after the IMF and EU reports are completed. He said if it turns out that Greece cannot return to financial markets as planned it is up to Greece to provide answers. He also said Germany would not be able to approve additional measures for Greece without clear conditions.
В банке Credit Suisse полагают,что если Греция захочет покинуть Еврозону,ей придется выйти и из Евросоюза.
May 12 (Bloomberg) — Greek exit may trigger capital flight from peripheral to core Europe, requiring considerable deleveraging in periphery, Credit Suisse’s Andrew Garthwaite says. ECB owns ~EU50b of Greek bonds, EU/IMF have lent Greece EU53b; leaving euro could mean leaving EU: CS Says Greece would choose to avoid early debt restructuring, Issues in peripheral Europe ultimately manageable: CS Says underweight continental Europe, long domestic Germany, short peripheral Europe (especially Spain); sees euro weakening further
Глава Deutsche Bank AG господин Josef Ackermann полагает,что реструктуризация долгов Греции была бы огромной ошибкой
May 12 (Bloomberg) — Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said Greek debt won’t be restructured as it would be a “huge mistake” to do so. Instead the bailout package for Greece should be increased for the next two years, Ackermann said in an interview on the sidelines of a conference in St. Gallen, Switzerland today. “There is no other solution,” he said.
В банке JPMorgan считают,что реструктуризации долгов Греции не будет до 2013 года,а страна должна получить доступ к средствам фонда EFSF
May 12 (Bloomberg) — Greece will be allowed to access EFSF to cover gross funding needs in 2012 and 2013, JPMorgan’s David Mackie says. Decisions on debt restructuring to be delayed until 2013: JPM Says new package will need to provide additional EU65b funding on top of current EU110b program
МИНИСТР ФИНАНСОВ ГЕРМАНИИ НАМЕРЕН ПРОВЕСТИ РАССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ПО ПОВОДУ СЛУХОВ О ВЫХОДЕ ГРЕЦИИ ИЗ ЕВРОЗОНЫ
Об этом сообщает газета «Die Zeit».Речь идет о статье в немецком издании «Der Spiegel» от 6 мая, где сообщалось о готовности Греции выйти из Еврозоны, при этом издание ссылалось на источники в Еврокомиссии.По этому поводу, министр финансов Германии господин Wolfgang Schaeuble требует провести расследование на предмет того, действительно ли кто то из чиновников давал для «Der Spiegel» подобную информацию.
May 12 (Bloomberg) — The German Finance Ministry is investigating whether one of its officials leaked a study warning against Greece leaving the euro area, Die Zeit newspaper reported, citing a ministry spokesman it didn’t identify. A May 6 article in Der Spiegel magazine quoted from what it said was a ministry paper that revealed a meeting of European finance officials in Luxembourg that day on how to deal with the Greek debt crisis. The report sent the euro lower. The internal document was stored on a Finance Ministry server to which 28 officials had access, Die Zeit reported. The leak was a slap for German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, whose pro-European stance in the debt crisis is opposed by some in the German government, the weekly said.
ЗАЯВЛЕНИЯ ЯПОНИИ И ИНДИИ ПО ПОВОДУ СИТУАЦИИ С ГОСДОЛГОМ США И ПЕРСПЕКТИВАМИ ДОЛГОВОГО РЫНКА США.
10:29 12May11 RTRS-JAPAN WILL 'CLOSELY WATCH' U.S. DEBT CEILING DEBATE, NO CHANGE IN RESERVE MANAGEMENT PLANS-JAPAN'S DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER
10:29 12May11 RTRS-MAKES SENSE FOR JAPAN TO TRY TO DIVERSIFY RESERVES TO REDUCE EXPOSURE TO U.S. DEBT-JAPAN DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER
10:29 12May11 RTRS-INDIA HAS 'NO CHOICE' BUT TO KEEP INVESTING IN U.S. TREASURIES — INDIA CENTRAL BANK OFFICIAL
10:29 12May11 RTRS-INDIA CBANK OFFICIAL SAYS U.S. DEBT IS SAFE AND LIQUID «AS OF NOW», EUROZONE IS UNCERTAIN 10:34
TOKYO/MUMBAI, May 12 (Reuters) — Asia's reserve-rich nations see no viable option but to keep on purchasing U.S. government debt despite their uneasiness about Washington's fraught political battle over public spending. Interviews with senior officials from four leading Asian economies — including Japan and China, the two largest foreign holders of U.S. debt — showed they were concerned that U.S. lawmakers would fail to authorize additional government borrowing before a $14.3 trillion debt limit is reached.
But they still considered U.S. Treasury debt the safest bet, particularly with so much uncertainty surrounding Europe's sovereign debt situation. None of the Asian officials interviewed by Reuters said their reserve investment plans would change right away, even if the U.S. Congress does not raise the debt ceiling this week. The debt limit is expected to be reached on Monday, and the Obama administration has warned of «catastrophic» consequences if the government cannot pay its bills. «Our stance remains unchanged on foreign reserves management,» Japan's Deputy Finance Minister, Fumihiko Igarashi, told Reuters. «The U.S. is making the most of having the dollar as key reserve currency and such a situation would not change immediately,» he said. «But nothing will last forever, as with any political and economic conditions. We will closely watch developments» in Congress. Igarashi said Japan should aim to diversify its reserves to reduce Treasuries exposure, perhaps by increasing gold holdings or raising the percentage invested in euro assets. But he acknowledged that a portfolio shift would be «quite difficult… because selling Treasuries would hurt our own assets.»
http://www.bloomberg.com/ (C) Источник
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