БЛЮМ-БУМ ЗА ДЕНЬ :: ШАМАНЫ ИЗ GOLDMAN SACHS:ПОВТОРЕНИЕ ПРОЙДЕННОГО?

Довольно любопытная ситуация.Нынешние события на финансовом рынке, все больше напоминают рассказ про машину времени, хотя если исходить из текущих новостных потоков и движения стоимости активов, скорее уместно порассуждать о «застывшем времени».Взять к примеру ситуацию на рынке сырья.Около года назад, по крайне мере тоже в мае месяце, стоимость нефти и промышленных металлов тоже снижалась.Падали и фондовые индексы в мире.Сейчас все эти активы также падают в цене.Как обычно, настроения среди инвесторов, как то внезапно стали ухудшаться.Как и год назад, количество пессимистов начинает расти пропорционально падению стоимости активов.И, как и год назад, снова звучит дисонансом призыв банка Goldman Sachs покупать сырьевые активы, а неутомимый господин Jeffrey Currie повышает свои прогнозы по стоимости нефти и металлов.

Кстати, еще одно совпадение.Как и год назад, снова падают в цене акции самого банка Goldman Sachs и тоже по причине «наездов» со стороны регулирующих органов США и местной прокуратуры.Действительно, все очень похоже, и иногда создается ощущение, что время просто остановилось.А может быть просто мы что то не замечаем?

Индекс азиатских валют весной 2010

Индекс азиатских валют весной 2011

Прогноз банка Goldman Sachs по рынку сырья в мае 2010 года

Прогноз банка Goldman Sachs по рынку сырья в мае 2011 года

Цены на нефть весной 2010 года

Цены на нефть весной 2011 года

Цены на медь весной 2010 года

Цены на медь весной 2011 года

Акции банка Goldman Sachs весной 2010 года

Акции банка Goldman Sachs весной 2011 года

Испания продала долговые бумаги на 2.3 миллиарда евро.Спрос солидный.Ставка доходности ниже

Минфин Испании продал 3-месячные гос. облигации на сумму 1 миллиард евро, а 6-месячные – на 1,3 млрд. евро. При этом коэффициент отношения предложения к покрытию составил для 3-месячных бумаг 6,6 против 4,4 на предыдущем аукционе, а для полугодовых – 5,5, тогда как в прошлый раз было 7,1. Ставка доходности снизилась для 6-месячных бондов: до 1,766 с 1,867, но немного увеличилась для 3-месячных: до 1,380 после1,371.

12:41 24May11 RTRS-SPAIN'S TREASURY SELLS 1000 MILLION EUROS IN 3-MTH T-BILLS 12:41

24May11 RTRS-SPAIN'S TREASURY SELLS 1300 MILLION EUROS IN 6-MTH T-BILLS

12:41 24May11 RTRS-SPAIN'S 3-MTH T-BILL BID-TO-COVER RATIO 6.6 VS 4.4 AT PREVIOUS AUCTION

12:41 24May11 RTRS-SPAIN'S 6-MTH T-BILL BID-TO-COVER RATIO 5.5 VS 7.1 AT PREVIOUS AUCTION

12:45 24May11 RTRS-SPAIN'S 3-MTH T-BILL AVERAGE YIELD 1.380PCT AFTER 1.371 PCT AT PREVIOUS AUCTION

12:45 24May11 RTRS-SPAIN'S 6-MTH T-BILL AVERAGE YIELD 1.766 PCT AFTER 1.867 PCT AT PREVIOUS AUCTION

Сценарии движения курса евро в зависимости от решения ситуации вокруг Греции.Варианты от Reuters

Варианты рассматриваются такие: Если произойдет так называемая «мягкая реструктуризация», то есть ситуация при которой сроки погашения греческих долгов будут продлены, но без списания части задолженности (то есть держатели долговых бумаг останутся со своими требования к Греции) это может оказать на евро негативное влияние.Рейтинговые агентства уже предостерегали, что любая форма реструктуризации будет рассматриваться как объявление дефолта, что неминуемо вызовет новое снижение суверенного рейтинга Греции.Однако падение евро (снова ниже уровня в $ 1.40) будет краткосрочным, так как это явно разрядит обстановку вокруг Португалии и Ирландии.Кроме того, рынок получит подтверждение, что политические структуры Еврозоны могут проявлять политическую волю и действовать сообща.Этот момент вызовет прилив оптимизма, что изменит отношение к евро и поможет валюте снова начать расти.Вплоть до тестирования прежнего максимального уровня нынешнего года в районе $ 1.50.В другом варианте, если Греция начнет переговоры по списанию части задолженности (жесткая реструктуризация) это естественно вызовет убытки у держателей долгов страны и тогда курс евро очень быстро упадет и протестирует как минимум уровень в $ 1.30.

LONDON, May 24 (Reuters) — Any Greek debt restructuring plan would open the door to euro selling towards $1.30, by hitting European banks and private investors and raising questions about the euro zone's overall creditworthiness. Such jitters have already dogged the euro, which slumped to a two-month low of $1.3968 on Monday, retreating from a 17-month high near $1.50 touched earlier in the month. The latest euro losses have coincided with soaring costs to insure Greek debt against default as investors survey the prospects for a restructuring including a possible haircut. Some analysts say the euro has ample room to fall, adding that a drastic Greek restructuring, or signs that Spain may be set to join the club of indebted euro zone nations seeking aid would push the single currency to $1.30 or even lower. At the same time, the euro could see some support around $1.40 if a shift in market focus to fiscal and economic weakness in the United States triggers selling in the dollar. Following are scenarios of possible outcomes and risks for the Greek debt crisis, and their impact on the euro.

IF GREECE UNDERTAKES A 'SOFT RESTRUCTURING' OF ITS DEBT The FX market's main scenario is for a «soft restructuring» of Greek debt soon, in which bondholders would be expected to keep their exposure to Greece by agreeing to maturity extensions, rolling over debt at maturity, or other measures. «There will be a restructuring,» said Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon, adding that this would see the euro sustain a break below $1.40. «Although it may only be a soft one, it seems likely that the ratings agencies will react negatively if private sector investors are expected to share in the pain.» Ratings agency Fitch last week said it would consider any extension of existing Greek debt maturities a default. But fund managers say a plan which limits contagion risks to Ireland and Portugal, which are also struggling with debts, plus optimism that Europe has the political will to solve its debt problems, will ultimately offer a reason to buy the euro. This could see the euro change course and push back up towards $1.50 in the coming months, said Pierre Lequeux, head of currency management at Aviva Investors, whose parent company Aviva Plc manages $371 billion in assets.

IF GREECE IMPLEMENTS A BIG HAIRCUT ON ITS DEBT Currency market participants see little chance of an immediate haircut on Greek debts — which would require debt holders to take an across-the-board loss on their exposure — but many do not rule out such a prospect in the future. This contrasts with the bond market, which is pricing in the possibility of Greek debt haircuts that could wipe 50-70 percent off the current value of sovereign debt. This scenario could prompt a big sell-off in the euro, said Ulrich Leuchtmann, FX strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. «A haircut could trigger higher CDS prices which would be pretty nasty for the euro,» he said. «If it results in a new banking system crisis, like a freeze-up of the interbank market (as) during the Lehman crisis, we could see the euro at $1.30.» Such concerns have already hit the credit default swaps market, with benchmark five-year Greek CDS jumping to a record high above 1,400 basis points on Tuesday.

IF SPAIN REQUIRES ASSISTANCE IN THE SHORT TERM Similarly, the euro would also take a big hit if investors see a heightened risk that Spain may also require assistance to repay its debts, as it would confirm that the euro zone debt crisis continues to spread to other countries. The possibility of contagion was highlighted by Moody's comments on Tuesday that a Greek default could trigger credit rating cuts for Portugal and Ireland, and by Standard & Poor's weekend downgrade of Italy's sovereign rating outlook. «Something happening to Spain would change the ballgame, and in that case we would see $1.30 before we saw $1.50,» said Jane Foley, currency strategist at Rabobank. Foley and other analysts said they saw only a very low risk of Spain turning to the European Union and International Monetary Fund for help. They added that a fall in the euro to its 2010 low below $1.19 was unlikely provided any fallout from action on Greek debt is limited to Ireland and Portugal.

THE ROLE OF DOLLAR WEAKNESS Some in the market expect that, barring a drastic Greek restructuring, the euro will maintain its relative strength versus the dollar, which is suffering from its own problems. A weak U.S. economy, low interest rates, and a growing focus on the need for Washington to tackle its own massive borrowing offer a range of reasons to sell the dollar versus the euro. At the same time, analysts argue all is not doom and gloom for the euro, thanks to ongoing signs of strength in core countries including Germany, and the prospect of higher interest rates which would reinforce the euro's rate advantage. Not only could this shield the euro from excessive losses, relative strength in the German economy versus the United States would see a pick up in the euro, returning it to around $1.50. «There is a potential that stresses in the U.S. could develop,» said Foley at Rabobank, adding that she was reluctant to revise her euro forecast of $1.50 by year-end. «You see slow growth in the U.S. So if we have to choose between the U.S and Germany, many of us would choose Germany. That's why we're at $1.40 and not $1.20,» Foley said.

Банк Goldman Sachs повышает прогноз по ценам на нефть и промышленные металлы. Стоимость смеси Brent повышена до $ 130

Отдел по торговле сырьевыми товарами банковской группы Goldman Sachs Group Inc, полагает, что сейчас настало время снова начать инвестировать в рынок сырья.Сырьевой стратег господин Jeffrey Currie пришел к выводу, что стоимость нефти будет существенно выше нынешних уровней и повышает прогноз цены на смесь Brent.По рассчетам господина Jeffrey Currie за счет постоянного сохранения напряженности на Ближнем Востоке (в обозримом периоде времени) поставки нефти из региона будут находиться под угрозой срыва.Добыча нефти в Ливии начинает сокращаться и предложение ливийской нефти будет более ограниченным, чем ожидалось.Одновременно, мощности по добыче нефти странах не входящих в ОПЕК пока буксуют, а уровень производства нефти стагнирует.Банк повышает прогноз стоимости нефти через 3,6 и 12 месяцев, до соответственно 115,120 и 130 долларов за баррель.Одновременно,Goldman Sachs снова повышает рекомендации по сектору промышленных металлов, полагая, что цены на медь будут расти за счет увеличения спроса и наличия постоянного дефицита со стороны предложения, которое начнет ощущаться в следующем году.

May 24 (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said investors should buy crude oil, copper and zinc as sustained economic growth will tighten supplies. “We believe that the risk/reward once again favors being long commodities,” analysts led by London-based Jeffrey Currie said in an e-mailed report today.

“Economic growth will likely be sufficient to tighten key supply-constrained markets in the second half, leading to higher prices from current levels.” The Standard & Poor’s GSCI spot index of 24 commodities has lost about 10 percent since the New York-based bank told investors on April 11 to sell a basket of commodities including oil, copper and cotton, and in the same week recommended they stay “underweight” in raw materials. Global manufacturing activity as measured by the JPMorgan Chase & Co. index has slowed for two consecutive months and stood at 55 in April. A reading of 50 and above suggests expansion. Prices of metals and energy have dropped to levels “more in line with near-term fundamentals,” the analysts said.

A sustained loss of Libyan crude production because of conflict and “disappointing” output from non-OPEC nations will tighten the oil market to “critical” levels in early 2012, they said. Goldman raised its forecasts for Brent crude futures as Libyan supply cuts lead to the “effective exhaustion” of spare production capacity in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The 12-month price estimate was revised up to $130 a barrel from $107, the report said.

Copper, Zinc Copper has lost 13 percent from its record $10,190 a metric ton on Feb. 15 on the London Metal Exchange. Goldman analysts recommended buying futures for June 2012 delivery. Brent shed about 13 percent from the highest level since 2008 on April 11. The bank also favors zinc for delivery in December 2012, forecasting demand to outpace supply next year. The metal, used in production of galvanized steel, has dropped 13 percent this year, the biggest loser among the six major LME base metals. “Although we do not see the zinc balance as tight as copper next year, given how low current prices are relative to industry economics, we believe that zinc price risk is substantially skewed to the upside,” the report said.

АГЕНТСТВО S&P О КИТАЙСКОМ БАНКОВСКОМ СЕКТОРЕ:ЖЕСТКАЯ МОНЕТАРНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА ЦБ КИТАЯ,ПРИВЕДЕТ К СУЩЕСТВЕННОМУ ПАДЕНИЮ ПРИБЫЛЬНОСТИ БАНКОВ

Пять крупнейших банков США столкнутся с вероятными обязательствами ($17 Billion) по гражданским искам

АГЕНТСТВО PLATTS ПРОГНОЗИРУЕТ РОСТ ПОТРЕБЛЕНИЯ НЕФТИ В КИТАЕ НА 5% В ГОД.

Агентство Standard & Poor's отзывает свои кредитные рейтинги по правительству США в связи с введением новых правил рейтингования в Европе

24May11 RTRS-TEXT-S&P withdraws issue ratings on debt issued by U.S. govt (The following statement was released by the rating agency) May 24

— Standard & Poor's converted its issuer credit ratings on the U.S. government to «unsolicited» on Feb. 24, 2011, in light of new EU regulations on credit ratings.

— As anticipated in our published announcement of the aforementioned action on Feb. 24, 2011, we are withdrawing our issue ratings on the debt issued by the U.S. government.

— The U.S. government unsolicited issuer credit ratings will remain outstanding. May 24 — Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has withdrawn its issue ratings on the debt issued by the U.S. federal government (unsolicited, AAA/Negative/A-1+). On Feb. 24, 2011, we converted our issuer credit ratings on the U.S. government to «unsolicited» and we anticipated our intention to withdraw our issue ratings on the debt issued by the U.S. government. Standard & Poor's nonetheless continues to publish issuer credit ratings on the U.S. government, on an unsolicited basis, and our withdrawal of the issue ratings has no impact on our view of this sovereign's creditworthiness; our issuer credit ratings on the U.S. government remain unchanged.

ЧЛЕН ЕЦБ ГОСПОДИН BINI-SMAGHI ГОВОРИТ:ГРЕЦИЯ НЕ ПОЛУЧИТ ПОМОЩИ ЕСЛИ НЕ БУДЕТ ВЫПОЛНЯТЬ УСЛОВИЯ ЕВРОСОЮЗА.

VIENNA, May 24 (Reuters) — The European Central Bank is ready to act if inflation remains above its 2 percent target ceiling, ECB policymaker Lorenzo Bini Smaghi told an Austrian newspaper in remarks released on Tuesday. «The increase in prices is partly temporary, resulting from the increase in oil and food prices. But we must — and will — act again if we see that inflation is remaining above our target rate,» he told daily Der Standard. He reiterated the ECB's stance that Greece needed to implement terms of an international bailout in order to receive the next instalment of loans. He cast doubt on the idea of investors voluntarily extending the maturities of Greek bonds. «No private investor would concur if you now asked them to exchange a Greek bond maturing within the next few months with a new long-term bond — unless, that is, the investor received higher interest payments, but this would add further to the debt burden.»

Возобновились консультации по поводу сокращения дефицита бюджета в США и увеличения лимита по госдолгу

WASHINGTON, May 24 (Reuters) — Talks to avert a potentially catastrophic U.S. debt default resume on Tuesday after signs Republicans might soften their stance over a key obstacle to a deal with Democrats, but hopes for a breakthrough remain slim. Vice President Joe Biden leads senior lawmakers in their third round of negotiations to lift the $14.3 trillion U.S. debt limit before an Aug. 2 deadline for action.

Top Republicans say Biden's talks are laying vital groundwork for an eventual compromise on measures to rein in growth in the U.S. budget deficit, but President Barack Obama will ultimately be required to seal the deal. No one expects anything to happen fast, but a top White House official said he saw reason for optimism if the talks focus on areas of agreement and set aside more controversial issues.

«I actually think we can outperform market expectations and get quite a lot done this year,» Jacob Lew, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, told CNBC on Tuesday. «It is a very constructive conversation,» he said. «We have a lot of work to do, but we're getting down to business.» Attention has shifted to Biden's group after separate discussions among a group of six senators stalled last week. Failure to increase the limit could force the United States to renege on its debt obligations, risking devastating fallout for the U.S. and world economies.

«We face a lot of real problems. We shouldn't manufacture problems,» Lew said. «The debt limit is going to have to be extended. That's a political, not an economic crisis. We have an economic problem. We could turn it into a crisis by failing to act.» Republicans say they are open to a compromise on their plan to slash healthcare costs to help trim trillions of dollars from the U.S. budget deficit, in return for supporting a higher debt ceiling.

Democrats, led by Obama, say they too want to control spending, although they have criticized cuts proposed by Republicans as too drastic. But Democrats also want to boost revenue by raising taxes, which Republicans flatly reject as part of a debt deal, a clear warning that financial markets should expect negotiations to push right up to the brink of default before a deal is done. «I don't think the most brilliant negotiators, with the best of intentions, can resolve this problem,» said Scott Lilly, a former congressional budget specialist and now a senior fellow with the Center for American Progress.

HEALTHCARE IN FOCUS Republicans want deficit savings to match the amount the administration wants to raise the borrowing limit, and the U.S. Treasury sees a $2 trillion increase in the debt ceiling needed to last through the November 2012 elections. The Tuesday session, which will be held on Capitol Hill, is expected to focus on healthcare spending, according to a source close to the discussions.

Analysts at the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimate that savings to the U.S. budget deficit of between $25 billion and $130 billion could be achieved over 10 years by increasing the costs to people in the Medicare healthcare program for the elderly. Biden's group has initially focused on areas where the two sides can most easily agree. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that these areas could yield deficit savings of between $1 and $2 trillion over the next decade.

Biden's group includes four Democrat lawmakers and two Republicans, including Eric Cantor, the No. 2 Republican in the House of Representatives. Cantor said Biden's group was only laying the groundwork for final talks between Obama, House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, and Senate leaders. «We are engaging in these discussions right now in the Biden commission to really understand where both sides are,» Cantor told reporters on Monday. The United States reached the congressionally mandated $14.3 trillion limit on its borrowing on May 16. Administration officials are using special accounting measures to avoid a default for now but they warn their leeway to do that will run out on Aug. 2.

КИТАЙ НАЧНЕТ ОСЛАБЛЯТЬ ДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНУЮ ПОЛИТИКУ ВО ВТОРОМ ПОЛУГОДИИ.ГОВОРИТ ВЕДУЩИЙ СОВЕТНИК ПРАВИТЕЛЬСТВА КНР

BEIJING, May 24 (Reuters) — China's inflation is likely to ease in the second half of 2011, leading the government to relax credit curbs to help cash-starved small firms, a senior economist affiliated to China's central bank said on Tuesday. «I think there could be some relaxation in policy after a period of tightening,» Jiao Jinpu, head of the central bank's graduate school, told Reuters in an interview. Jiao was previously a vice-head of research at the central bank but has no influence over monetary policy in his present role. The world's second-largest economy is on a solid footing, Jiao said, playing down market fears of a sharp slowdown.

«But the true worry is how to protect small enterprises, particularly the high-quality firms,» he said. Many smaller firms have complained about difficulties in getting loans as banks tighten their belts. Jiao said China's banks, especially fast-growing ones, have been hit by a liquidity squeeze due to the central bank's repeated increases in their reserve requirements. «Some banks will face liquidity problems if we don't relax. We don't want to see liquidity risks at any banks,» he said.

Debate about the future direction of Chinese policy is heating up among economists amid signs that China's economy is slowing while inflation remains largely elevated. Annual inflation was near 32-month highs of 5.3 percent in April. Xia Bin, an adviser to the central bank, told Reuters that the government is less concerned about slower economic growth as it puts more emphasis on structural adjustments and is likely to maintain a tighter policy to fight inflation. Chinese factories expanded activity in May at the slowest pace in 10 months while price pressures eased, a purchasing managers' index showed on Monday, adding to evidence that the economy is moderating as a tighter policy starts to bite. The central bank, keen to put a lid on inflation, has unveiled a series of tightening measures in recent months, including repeated increases in banks' required reserves and interest rates.

INFLATION TO EASE Jiao said he expected inflation to peak around June and will start to ease in the second half of the year. The central bank has raised banks' reserve requirements eight times since October, locking up a record 21 percent of bank deposits that big banks could otherwise have lent out. In addition, the People's Bank of China has also raised benchmark interest rates four times since October. Jiao saw limited scope for further interest rate rises. The yuan is likely to appreciate around 5 percent this year, Jiao said. The forecast was in line with market consensus. The economy remained resilient, partly due to strong investment by growth-obsessed provincial authorities, Jiao said. He expects the economy to expand 9-10 percent this year, and will retain much of that momentum in 2012. «It's very difficult for the central government to control investment by local governments,» he said. Jiao said China's thriving informal lending markets have provided badly-needed lifelines to cash-starved small businesses. He estimated that total informal loans, including those made by small credit companies, guarantee companies, and pawn shops, have topped 2 trillion yuan ($307 billion).

Член ЕЦБ Bini Smaghi говорит:У Греции нет выбора.Только реформы.

В своем интервью австрийской радиостанции ORF представитель ЕЦБ сказал: «Мы очень надеемся, что греки выплатят свои долги. И самый оптимальный способ сделать это – внедрить ранее согласованные с ЕС и МВФ программы. Следует понимать, что невыплата долга Грецией не решит глубинные проблемы этой страны, скорее наоборот – усугубит их». По мнению Лоренцо Бини Смаги, Греции следует безотлагательно начать реализацию программу приватизации и проведение структурных реформ. Шаги по снижению влияния монополий и повышению налогов также необходимы, хотя «населению может не понравиться идея повышения налогов, но ничего не поделаешь – по такому пути идет весь Европейский Союз».

May 24 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said that there is “no alternative” to Greece paying its debts and carrying through its economic reform program. “We expect the Greeks to repay their debts,” Bini Smaghi said in an interview with Austrian ORF radio broadcast today. “The best way to do that is to implement the program that has been agreed with the IMF and the European Union, which maybe needs to be strengthened.

” “It’s not by not repaying the debts that the Greeks will solve the problems, it would actually make their own problems worse,” Bini Smaghi said. The executive board member said that Greece needs to begin implementation of its privatization program and structural reforms, which would “provide it with some financing.” Action to reduce monopolies and increase tax collection is also needed, Bini Smaghi said. “People may not like to pay taxes, but that’s the way it is in the European Union,” he said.

“So they have to get in line with the program or even strengthen the program and that’s the way to get back on track.” Commenting on inflation, Bini Smaghi said the ECB will “do whatever is needed to maintain inflation low.” “In the medium term we have to take into account the possibility that oil and food prices may increase at a faster pace than what we think,” he said. “So we have to explain this to wage setters, to companies, to unions that wages have to be contained to absorb these shocks if we want to maintain price stability.”

ЛИДЕР ГРЕЧЕСКОЙ ОППОЗИЦИИ САМАРАС ВЫСТУПАЕТ ПРОТИВ НОВОГО ПЛАНА ЭКОНОМИИ РАСХОДОВ

Глава крупнейшей в Греции оппозиционной партии «Новая демократия» отказывается поддерживать политику нынешнего правительства, поскольку она, не дает возможности экономического роста. Антонис Самарас, лидер оппозиции, заявил о такой позиции в ответ на призыв нынешнего Премьера Георга Папандреу к необходимости чем-то жертвовать. Оппозиционер сказал, что он готов поддержать продажу гос. активов, если это обеспечит рост экономики и приток инвестиций, но не «панические метания».

May 24 (Bloomberg) — Greece’s biggest opposition party, New Democracy, doesn’t support the government’s policies because
they won’t spark economic growth.
Antonis Samaras, the leader of the New Democracy party, said Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou was calling on
Greeks to make more sacrifices. He said his party would support state asset sales provided they led to growth and investment
rather than being a “panicky move”.
Samaras spoke in comments broadcast live on state-run NET TV after meeting with Papandreou this morning. Papandreou is
seeking broad political agreement for a 78 billion-euro package of measures and state asset sales to be brought to parliament
next month.

Несмотря на все старания чиновников Евросоюза забыть по Греции слово "дефолт" и говорить "репрофилирование".Ничего не получается

Эту особенность отмечает в своем исследовании управляющий фондом денежного рынка из компании Glendevon King Asset Management.Господин Nicola Marinelli указывает на тот факт, что попытки некоторых чиновников из Еврозоны, в частности премьер-министра Люксембурга господина Jean-Claude Juncker, заставить инвесторов поверить в то, что дефолта Греции не будет, а будет так называемое «перепрофилирование» долга, эта попытка пока не увенчалась успехом.Господин Marinelli специально подсчитал количество упоминаний и в аналитических материалах от инвесткомпаний и упоминаний в прессе, слов «дефолт» и «репрофилиование» в контексте греческой истории.Результыт показали, что несмотря на все потуги таких чиновников как Jean-Claude Juncker говорить не о дефолте, а о перепрофилировании, количество упоминаний именн слов о дефолте Греции, все равно на порядок выше.Иными словами, люди просто не воспринимают понятие «репрофилирование» так как ассоциируют этот процесс с тем же дефолтом. “Перепрофилирование — всего лишь более мягкий термин, придуманный политиками для обозначения реструктуризации”, — сказал Nicola Marinelli. “Как только станет ясно, что может произойти дефолт в том или ином виде, цепная реакция перекинется на Португалию и Ирландию. Если посмотреть на цифры, там это тоже возможно”.

May 24 (Bloomberg) — An attempt by Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker to encourage the financial community to talk about Greece “reprofiling” its debt rather than defaulting is failing. The CHART OF THE DAY compares usage of the word “default” or associated terms in news articles also mentioning “Greece” with those that employ “reprofiling.”

Occurrences of the latter spiked after Juncker, who leads the group of euro-area finance ministers, used the term. Greek government bond yields and their premiums to German bunds have surged to records.

“Reprofiling is just a nice word invented by the politicians when they mean restructuring,” said Nicola Marinelli, a money manager at Glendevon King Asset Management in London, which oversees more than $150 million. “Once it’s clear some kind of default can happen there will be knock-on effects for Portugal and Ireland. If you look at the numbers, it can happen there too.”

Greece is extending spending cuts and selling more assets to continue receiving support under its international bailout plan. Lawmakers including Juncker and European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn say a restructuring may be possible after the government in Athens takes additional steps to cut its deficit. European Central Bank Governing Council member Christian Noyer today ruled out a restructuring of Greece’s debt, calling it a “horror story” that the central bank cannot accept. Fitch Ratings on May 20 cut Greece three levels and said any extension of its debt maturities would constitute default. The news-flow statistics were compiled from about 100 of the top sources available on the Bloomberg terminal, including reports by Bloomberg News

Если Греция объявит дефолт,это неизбежно ударит по Ирландии и Португалии.Их кредитный рейтинг будет понижен до "мусорного" уровня.Так говорят в агентстве Moody's

«Дефолт Греции окажется в высшей степени дестабилизирующим событием, он будет иметь негативные последствия для кредитоспособности всех европейских должников», – заявил в своем телефонном интервью Эластер Уильсон из этого агентства. – «Это выразится в дальнейшем контрасте уровня кредита доверия и рейтинга разных стран еврозоны». Эксперт также сообщил, что Испания, Италия и Бельгия не относятся к той же категории, что и Португалия с Ирландией, но они также могут испытать понижения суверенного кредитного рейтинга. Вместе с тем, он отказался сообщить, какие шансы предположительного дефолта Греции.

ATHENS, May 24 (Reuters) — Portugal and Ireland would be at risk of multi-notch credit downgrades, pushing their ratings into junk territory in the event of a default by Greece, Moody's EMEA chief credit officer told Reuters on Tuesday.

«A Greek default would be highly destabilising and would have implications for the creditworthiness of issuers across Europe,» Alastair Wilson said in a telephone interview. «This would result in more highly polarised credit worthiness and ratings among euro zone sovereigns, with the stronger countries retaining very high ratings and the weaker countries struggling to remain in investment grade.»

Wilson said that the focus after any Greek default would be on Portugal and Ireland, who have also agreed bailouts with the EU and the IMF. Asked if Portugal and Ireland would be be at risk of falling into junk territory in case of a Greek default, he said: «Potentially yes… If there were to be a Greek default there could potentially be multi-notch downgrades to the weakest sovereigns.»

He said Spain, Italy and Belgium were not in the same category as Portugal and Ireland but would also come under significant market pressure and could face rating downgrades. «Spain is not in the same category as Portugal and Ireland. It would be expected though that even the slightly stronger euro zone sovereigns would come under significant market pressure and very likely face (a) higher cost of accessing the wholesale funding market,» Wilson said. He declined to say how likely it was that Greece would actually default on its debt.

Глава немецкого института IFO господин Abberger полагает,что ЕЦБ будет повышать ставки,но это не станет проблемой для Германии

MUNICH, Germany, May 24 (Reuters) — Germany's economy is performing well despite international risks and currency fluctuations that are problematic for firms, Ifo economist Klaus Abberger said on Tuesday. Companies' export expectations improved slightly in May, he told Reuters in an interview, adding that he expected further interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank but that this would not be a problem for Germany.

ЦБ Филиппин призывает пока воздерживаться от покупки европейских активов из-за неопределенности вокруг периферийных стран

Центробанки Азии встревожены рисками, связанными с наличием европейских активов, ввиду снизившегося курса евро против доллара США почти до двухмесячных минимумов по причине беспокойств вокруг долгового кризиса. «Падение евро, вызванное греческим кризисом и заставляющее нервничать рынок, может иметь эффект домино для прочих стран «долговой периферии» Европы», – считает Зам. Главы Центробанка Филиппин Дайва Гуинигундо. – «Более того, даже ведущие экономики европейского региона могут испытать дефицит ликвидности в условиях рисков суверенных долгов. Я уверен, что фин. регуляторы Азиатского региона в полной мере осознают неопределенность и риски, связанные с приобретением активов европейских стран».

MANILA, May 24 (Reuters) — Asian central bankers are aware of the risks related to holding euro assets, a senior Philippine central bank official said on Tuesday, as the euro hovered above a two-month low against the dollar on worries about the euro zone's debt crisis. «The euro decline is on account of the Greek problem basically,» central bank Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said in the Dealing Room, a Reuters Messaging chat room. «The magnitudes involved in both the debt dynamics and the fiscal dynamics are quite intimidating and so the market is quite nervous. „What makes it worse is the possible spillover effects to the other peripheral southern states in Europe. Even larger economies may experience the liquidity shock of a sovereign debt risk.“ „I think the Asian central banks are quite cognizant of the uncertainty and the risks involved in holding euro assets,“ Guinigundo said.

Евросоюз готовится к началу процесса перепрофилирования греческого долга.Сообщает голландская пресса

Голландское издание «Het Financieele Dagblad» ссылаясь на неназванные источники в Брюсселе, сообщает о том, что якобы структуры Евросоюза начинают техническую подготовку к перепрофилировнаию греческого длга за счет продления сроков погашения.Будет создан специальный орган, который возглавит процесс продажи греческих государственных активов.

May 24 (Bloomberg) — Countries using the euro have started preparations for an extension of Greek debt maturities and setting up an independent organization to sell Greek state assets, Het Financieele Dagblad reported, citing unidentified people in Brussels. Officials have started technical preparations for a debt “reprofiling”, the Dutch newspaper said.

В предверии июньских выборах в Португалии:Опросы показывают увеличение отрыва оппозиционной партии Social Democrats.Скорее всего будет коалиционное правительство

May 24 (Bloomberg) — Portugal’s Social Democrats, the biggest opposition party, led the ruling Socialist Party of Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates by a wider margin in a survey of voters’ intentions for parliamentary elections, daily newspaper Publico reported.

The survey indicated 39.6 percent backing from voters for the Social Democratic Party, or PSD, led by Pedro Passos Coelho, 3.9 percentage points more than in a poll published on May 21, according to Publico.

The survey indicated 33.2 percent support for the Socialists, 0.9 percentage point less than in the previous poll, the newspaper said.

The survey indicated 12.1 percent support for the conservative People’s Party, 0.7 percentage point less than in the previous poll, and showed that 51.5 percent of those surveyed want a coalition government, Publico said. Portugal will hold elections on June 5. The poll for Publico and television station TVI was carried out by Intercampus from May 18 to May 22, and 1,021 people were contacted by telephone, the newspaper said. The margin of error is 3.06 percent, Publico said.

АГЕНТСТВО MOODY'S МОЖЕТ ПЕРЕСМОТРЕТЬ В СТОРОНУ ПОНИЖЕНИЯ КРЕДИТНЫЙ РЕЙТИНГ КРУПНЕЙШИХ БАНКОВ БРИТАНИИ

Вице-президент Национального Банка Швейцарии господин Jordan "очень обеспокоен" ростом франка

Об этом господин Thomas Jordan заявил в интервью Swiss television.По его словам, ситуация с ростом швейцарской валюты внушает опасения, так как дальнейший рост франка, несмотря на то, что помогает сдерживать увеличение стоимости импортного сырья, создает риски дефляционного сценария для экономики.Фактически, чиновник из ЦБ Швейцарии дал понять, что в текущей ситуации, речь о повышении процентной ставки со стороны регулятора не идет.Что касается опасений по поводу роста курса франка, то господин Thomas Jordan дал понять, что регулятор может вмешаться в ход валютных торгов, чтобы сдержать дальнейшее укрепление.

ZURICH, May 23 (Reuters) — Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Thomas Jordan said on Monday he is «very worried» about the rise in the Swiss franc, though he said interest rates can remain low for a relatively long period if inflation risks are benign. Jordan, in an interview with Swiss television, said the central bank is «very worried about the development of the exchange rate. „We are watching this very closely,“ he said in the interview, noting the bank's commitment to act if exchange rates were to result in deflationary tendencies. „We are observing this,“ Jordan said. „We will take action if as a result of this appreciation deflationary risks emerge.“ The Swiss franc on Monday hit its highest level against the euro since the single currency was launched in 1999. Jordan said: „The risks of a change in interest rates depend on what the inflationary risks look like.“ „Monetary policy has always to react to the outlook for inflation,“ he said. „If the outlook for inflation changes in such a way that the inflationary risks rise then we will have to raise interest rates more quickly.“

Банк Goldman Sachs понижает прогноз по темпам роста ВВП Китая и не исключает снижения фондового рынка в стране еще на 10%.Однако рекомендует начать "покупать Китай" уже сейчас.

При этом Goldman Sachs Group Inc. повышает инфляционный прогноз до 4,7% в текущем году и снижает целевой уровень одного из ведущих показателей состояния китайской экономики – Hang Seng China Enterprises Index до 14 500 с 16 500 до конца 2011 г. на фоне «гос. интервенции и роста цен на нефть».

«Мы не исключаем коррекции этого фондового индекса в пределах 5-10% в ближайшее время из-за уменьшения уровня дохода на одну акцию, но покупка на таких низких уровнях несет небольшие риски, учитывая перспективы прибыли и уже очень низкой оценки стоимости акций", – считают аналитики этого банка.


May 24 (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it wouldn’t “rule out” a further decline of up to 10 percent for Chinese stocks as growth in the world’s second-biggest economy slows and inflation accelerates. The U.S. bank cut its forecasts for China’s gross domestic product growth for this year and next to 9.4 percent and 9.2 percent respectively, while raising its inflation forecasts to 4.7 percent and 3 percent, without specifying its previous projections. Goldman Sachs also lowered its end-2011 target for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, to 14,500 from 16,500 amid “policy intervention” and higher oil prices.

The index rose 0.1 percent to 12,635.30 at 10:09 a.m. in Hong Kong. “We would not rule out a correction of up to 5 percent to 10 percent near term, triggered by earnings per-share cuts, but would buy on such dips given low earnings risks, valuation, likely policy inflection,” Goldman Sachs analysts led by Helen Zhu and Timothy Moe said in a report today. It expects inflation to peak in June and forecasts “normalization of policy sometime in the third quarter in 2011,” according to the report. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has dropped 7.6 percent from a five-month high on April 11 amid concern the government measures to cool inflation will hurt growth and erode companies’ earnings. The gauge is trading at 10.3 estimated earnings, compared with an average 14.3 times for the past five years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News.

The Chinese government has increased reserve requirements for banks 11 times and boosted interest rates four times since the start of 2010 to cool consumer prices, which exceeded economists’ estimates in April with a 5.3 percent increase. China should get used to an inflation rate between 5 percent and 10 percent for an extended period of time, the official Xinhua News Agency reported May 22, citing Wang Jian, secretary general of the National Development and Reform Commission’s China Society of Macroeconomics. A-Share Plunge Goldman Sachs downgraded Chinese steel, aluminum and industrial stocks to “underweight” from “neutral,” while keeping property and bank shares as top picks.

China’s benchmark stock index may extend declines after erasing all of its gains for 2011 yesterday as higher interest rates slow economic growth without cooling inflation, ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Co. said. The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 2.9 percent yesterday, the most since Jan. 17, after a preliminary reading of a purchasing managers’ index showed China’s manufacturing may expand at a slower pace this month. The gauge, which tumbled 9.7 percent from a five-month high on April 18, fell 0.5 percent to 2,759.58 today. “We remain cautious in the near term and we haven’t seen the bottom yet,” said Hao Kang, a Beijing-based fund manager at ICBC Credit Suisse Asset, which oversees $8.7 billion. “The economy’s definitely slowing but we’ve yet to see inflation easing. Although a short-term bounce is possible, it’s not the time for bottom fishing. We need to see a clearer policy signal.”

МИНФИН ГРЕЦИИ ОБЪЯВИЛ ПЛАН ПРИВАТИЗАЦИИ

ATHENS, May 23 (Reuters) — Greece announced a timetable of planned asset sales on Monday, as part of a drive to raise 50 billion euros ($70 billion) by 2015. Privatisations are the linchpin of Greek efforts to cope with its debt burden without a restructuring that could shake the euro. The government expects to raise 3.5-5.5 billion euros in 2011 and 4-6 billion euros next year.

Last week, Greece announced privatisation advisers for several projects.

Here is a list of the main companies to be sold, according to the finance ministry:

OTE Greece will sell its 16 percent in southeast Europe's biggest telecom company in the second quarter of 2011. It already has a put option to sell a 10 percent stake to German operator Deutsche Telekom, which holds a 30 percent stake in OTE. OTE's market value is 3.2 billion euros.

POST SAVINGS BANK Greece will sell its entire 34 percent stake in the lender by the end of the year. The company's market value is about 800 million euros.

PIRAEUS PORT, THESSALONIKI PORT Greece will sell the 75 percent stake it holds in each of the country's two biggest port operators by the end of this year. The two companies' total market value is 512 million euros.

THESSALONIKI WATER Greece will sell up to 40 percent of the company by the end of this year. It currently holds 75 percent. The company's market value is 174 million euros.

DEPA Greece plans to reduce its 65 percent stake in the former natural gas company to 33 percent in the last quarter of 2011. The unlisted company has a book value of about 1 billion euros.

OPAP Greece will sell its 34 percent stake in Europe's biggest gambling company in the first quarter of 2012. OPAP's market value is 4.1 billion euros.

ATHENS WATER Greece plans to reduce its 61 percent stake in Greece's biggest water utility to 34 percent in the third quarter of 2012. Athens Water's market value is 550 million euros.

PUBLIC POWER COPR Greece plans to reduce its 51 percent stake to 34 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. The company has a market value of 2.44 billion euros.

ATEBANK The government plans to sell up to 25 percent of the lender, reducing its stake to 51 percent by the end of 2013. ATEbank's market value is about 430 million euros

ПРАВИТЕЛЬСТВО ГРЕЦИИ ОБЪЯВИТ ДЕТАЛИ ПЛАНА СОКРАЩЕНИЯ БЮДЖЕТНОГО ДЕФИЦИТА НА СЛЕДУЮЩЕЙ НЕДЕЛЕ

ATHENS, May 23 (Reuters) — Greece on Monday said it would take new fiscal measures worth 6 billion euros ($8.44 billion) and immediately sell stakes in some state firms to reduce its debt but details will be announced next week. «The cabinet today reaffirmed its determination to continue with the fiscal consolidation programme by taking additional measures of over 6 billion euros… in order to achieve the 7.5 percent deficit target for 2011,» the finance ministry said in a statement. Details of the extra measures will be announced next week, government spokesman George Petalotis said.

НА БАЛАНСЕ ЕЦБ МОЖЕТ ОКАЗАТЬСЯ СЛИШКОМ МНОГО РИСКОВАННЫХ АКТИВОВ.СООБЩАЕТ НЕМЕЦКИЙ "DER SPIEGEL"

Речь идет о том, что якобы банки Испании, Ирландии, Португалии и Греции, передавали в качестве обеспечения в счет кредитов, рискованные активы.Этому потворствовали местные Центробанки.В результате, на балансе ЕЦБ может оказаться куча очень рискованных активов на сотни миллиардов евро.Без указания источника получения подобной информации, в немецком издании утверждают, что при осуществлении сделок между ЕЦБ и коммерческими банками, последние «втюхивали» в ЦБ необеспеченные долговые бумаги связанные с рынком недвижимости.При этом, стоимость подобных бумаг была явно завышена.Количество подобных бумаг переданных в залог ЕЦБ в стоимостном выражении может составить почти 500 миллиардов евро.

BERLIN, May 23 (Reuters) — Euro zone central banks have been lending money to commercial banks against highly questionable collateral, leaving the central banks potentially exposed to hundreds of billions of euros of bad loans, Germany's Der Spiegel magazine reported. Without citing its sources, Spiegel said commercial banks from Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain had used risky asset-backed securities (ABS) as collateral in money market operations to obtain funds from the European Central Bank. Some national central banks in the euro zone, accepting the collateral on behalf of the ECB, have not applied collateral standards stringently enough and have not imposed the required level of discounts to compensate for the risk of those securities, Spiegel said.

Currently, the outstanding amount lent by the ECB in its open market operations totals 417 billion euros. According to ECB figures, 480 billion euros of ABS, which are securities backed by pools of underlying assets such as real estate, are deposited at the central bank, though not all of it is being used as collateral. Spiegel reported that almost a third of the 78 various securities submitted as collateral to the Irish central bank by Depfa Bank, the Irish unit of failed German lender Hypo Real Estate, were valued too richly. If guidelines had been applied correctly, Depfa would have been able to borrow about 20 percent less using those assets, the magazine said. Spiegel said it had contacted the Irish central bank about the discrepancies, and that the Irish central bank had responded by changing its handling of some collateral. For example, at the end of February the Irish central bank more than doubled the discounts it applied to 21 securities submitted by Depfa, the magazine reported. The ECB declined to comment on the Spiegel report, while there was no immediate comment from the Irish central bank. Since each euro zone central bank holds a share of the ECB's capital, all the central banks are collectively liable for defaults in any part of the system. For example Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, holds 27 percent of the ECB's capital. This means the Bundesbank may not have set aside enough reserves for possible losses between 2010 and 2012, since it has only made provisions for 4.9 billion euros, Spiegel said. Bundesbank officials could not immediately be reached for comment.

Казначейство США готовит изменения в правила торговли на валютном рынке

Речь идет об изменении торгов внебиржевыми валютными инструментами, чтобы обеспечить большую прозрачность рынка.Львиная часть сделок должна заключаться на новых электронных платформах.

Дилеры валютного рынка готовятся к пересмотру моделей ведения бизнеса, чтобы поспевать за последними переменами, самыми радикальными за последние два десятилетия, равно как и за стремительно увеличивающимися объемами сделок, осуществляемых с помощью электронных платформ. Дело в том, что форекс-дилерам придется разделить операции с продуктами, расчеты по которым проводятся через центральные контрагенты, а сделки осуществляются посредством свопов (а именно, конверсионные опционы и расчетные форварды), и операции с прочими активами. «Мы идем к разветвлению самой бизнес-модели валютного рынка», – говорит Кевин Роджерс из Deutsche Bank. – «Сделки по некоторым продуктам для некоторых клиентов будут проводиться подобно купле-продаже акций. Большой сегмент этого рынка – споты, свопы и форвардные контракты будут заключаться путем двусторонней сделки, как и раньше».

Как бы то ни было. Электронные платформы будут повышать цену сделок, невзирая на окончательное определение валютной биржи. Например, платформа для одного дилера может применяться для соединения с торговой площадкой, и клиенты все также могут определять стоимость, судя по исполнению сделки платформой и возможностями управления рисками. То есть, дилеры по-прежнему будут концентрировать деньги в рамках электронных платформ и систем, независимо от неопределенностей, с целью привлечь клиентов, при этом беря на себя комиссионные расходы за подключение к самой торговой площадке. Вместе с тем, рынок производных валютных инструментов пока что только формируется, поэтому здесь все останется по-старому.

Более того, дилеры сошлись во мнении, что клиентам будет удобнее заключать сделки по крупным опционным тикетам путем устных торгов, чем нажимая на клавиши.
Оригинал здесь: www.ifre.com/fx-metamorphosis/636416.article

Ниже сам материал:

Practitioners breathed a collective sigh of relief when the US Treasury proposed a clearing exemption for FX swaps and forwards on April 29. It is far from business as usual for dealers, though. As well as forthcoming regulation on options and non-deliverable forwards, electronic trading is growing across all products at a dizzying pace. The FX derivatives market is evolving into an entirely different animal – and fast. Christopher Whittall reports.

Foreign exchange dealers are preparing to overhaul business models to keep up with the largest changes the industry has undergone in more than two decades. As well as keeping pace with the increasingly larger volumes being executed on electronic platforms, FX dealers will be forced to divide their business between products that will be cleared through central counterparties and executed on swap execution facilities (notably FX options and non-deliverable forwards), and those that won’t. “We’re going to see a bifurcation of the FX business model,” said Kevin Rodgers, global head of FX derivatives, spot and e-trading at Deutsche Bank in London.

“Certain products in certain jurisdictions with certain clients will go to an exchange, similar to the equities world. And big portions of the market – spot, swaps and forwards but also parts of the derivatives market – will be done bilaterally, like the old model.” Normally, regulation of this magnitude would be the main focus for dealers. But this regulatory push comes at a time when much of the market has been migrating on to e-platforms of its own accord. Computer power has boosted dealers’ abilities to offer execution on e-platforms, as well as managing risk in a more automated fashion. Deutsche Bank estimates that 20%–30% of its total options flow is now executed on its e-platform Autobahn compared with scarcely anything in 2008. Meanwhile, about 80%–90% of its spot volumes and 60% of its swaps and forwards volumes are executed electronically. It is hardly surprising then that dealers are throwing cash at their e-platforms by the bucket-load.

“We’re still investing heavily in our e-commerce platform Morgan Direct, both on the technology and the people side,” said Kayhan Mirza, global head of FX options trading at JP Morgan in London. “An increasing amount of our business is priced, executed and risk-managed on that platform. We believe that continued investment makes a lot of sense, regardless of the ultimate definition of an SEF.” Part of the problem, therefore, is that dealers must second-guess the final shape of regulation. Participants are confident that the US clearing exemption for swaps and forwards is in the bag, but will not find out for certain until the end of the month.

Meanwhile, the SEC and the CFTC currently have different definitions of a SEF, although it seems likely banks’ own e-commerce platforms will be ruled out for executing clearable trades – magnifying the significance of clearing exemptions for products that are already heavily e-traded. On top of this uncertainty, Europe has yet to pronounce on FX clearing. “There is still uncertainty, but if the Treasury exempts swaps and forwards, we’d expect Europe to follow suit,” said David Clark, chairman of the Wholesale Markets Brokers’ Association in London. “However, we can’t exclude the fact that Europe may not include options and NDFs in MiFID II.

A further potential difference may be the position that Europe takes on single-dealer platforms, because there appears to be little appetite to ban them.” In any case, e-commerce platforms will still add value regardless of the final SEF definition, said Vincent Craignou, head of FX and precious metals derivatives at HSBC in London. For example, single-dealer platforms can be used to root to SEFs, he said, and clients should still be able to glean value from the platform’s execution and risk management capabilities. This means that dealers are still piling money into their e-platforms and systems despite the uncertainty, looking to attract clients as well as shouldering the costs of connecting to multiple CCPs and SEFs. But while the FX derivatives market is evolving, some things should stay the same. Rodgers at Deutsche Bank signalled that electronic execution of vanilla options would continue to work on a request for quote basis rather than shifting to a central limit order book, as clients value flexibility in strikes and tenors too much.

Likewise, dealers concurred that clients would still execute the largest options tickets through voice broking rather than clicking and trading, out of comfort if nothing else. The impact of clearing and SEFs on options liquidity is a hazier subject. Proposed reporting requirements for cleared trades have led dealers to fear that they may not be able to warehouse risk as effectively as before, leading to rises in prices to compensate. “For short-dated options on liquid currencies, this transparency should help market liquidity,” said Craignou at HSBC. “But there is a risk that longer-dated contracts for block trades, and potentially for minor currencies, will become more illiquid as banks will have to widen prices to mitigate the effect of increased disclosure.” Another looming question is how effective e-trading platforms can perform in stressed market environments. FX is notoriously sensitive to market shocks and can swing violently in short periods of time.

Perhaps not surprisingly then, there are anecdotal reports of various e-platforms temporarily pulling options prices on days like the flash crash or the Japanese earthquake. “It can be very difficult,” admitted Craignou. “My temptation in such a scenario would be to switch off streaming and rely on good old-fashioned traders to generate prices.” Nevertheless, continued investment in systems and advances in technology will mean automated risk management will only grow in prominence in the future. “More and more price making and risk management tasks will be handled by computers, as we’ve already seen in the spot market,” said Rodgers. “That’s not to say that human traders will become redundant, though. Trading is a bit like flying a plane. You can put it on autopilot a lot of the time, but ultimately you need human beings who can understand the risk and make the right judgements.”
Разрыв в ставках доходности долговых бумаг Минфина США сигнализирует о вере рынка в дальнейшую экспансию экономики

Статья по этому поводу появилась на сайте агентства Bloomberg.В этом материале отмечено, что разрыв в ставках доходности бумаг Минфина с различным сроком погашения, увеличился до максимального соотношения за несколько лет.Традиционно такая ситуация сигнализирует о возможности продолжения притока средств в фондовые активы, что может свидетельствовать о потенциальном биржевом ралли в недалеком будущем.

May 23 (Bloomberg) — The gap between longer-term U.S. government bond yields and shorter maturities is the steepest ever during this point of an economic recovery, a sign the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to reverse record monetary stimulus when it stops buying Treasuries next month. The difference in yields between 2- and 5-year maturities as well as 2- and 10-year debt both now and projected for three- and six-months in the future are above the averages in instances when the Fed held interest rates steady, manufacturing was expanding and inflation less than 2 percent. That’s according to an analysis of interest-rate swaps by Deutsche Bank AG, one of the 20 primary dealers of U.S. debt that trade with the Fed. The difference between the rate on a two-year interest rate swap, which is the exchange of fixed for floating payments, and that on a 10-year maturity is 2.50 percentage points, compared with an average of 1.11 percentage points when the central bank was on hold, according to Deutsche Bank data. Between two- and five-year swap rates, the gap is 1.29 percentage points, or 129 basis points. In the forward market, where investors agree to lock in rates at a pre-set time in the future, the spread is 130 basis points for three months and 121 basis points in a year, Bloomberg data show. The average of the spread when the Fed was keeping policy rates stable was 0.63 percent on a spot basis, 0.60 percent on three-month forwards and 0.48 percent for one year, said Alex Li, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Deutsche Bank.

noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSeCIYQGOAtw

Член ЕЦБ господин Yves Mersch говорит:Позиция ЕЦБ по поводу реструктуризации Греции не изменилась.Нельзя этого допускать

May 23 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank council member Yves Mersch said he agrees with remarks from Executive Board member Juergen Stark and President Jean-Claude Trichet that there’s no need for a Greek debt restructuring. He also said at an event in Zurich today that the ECB takes “all developments” into account including exchange-rate developments.

В Банке Lloyds не предполагают существенного роста курса доллара,так как инвесторы уже застраховали валютные риски через опционный рынок

15:15 23May11 RTRS-FXNEWS-Lloyds: Little confidence in safe haven USD One-mth EUR/USD 25-delta risk reversals jump to 1.8 in favour of euro puts, from around 1.5 on Friday to touch its highest since Dec, according to Reuters data. The premium to protect against more euro weakness is increasing but Lloyds analysts argue that risk reversals have not increased much in the last week, and generally remain well short of their November levels. They add that this, along with ongoing long euro positioning despite a 10 cent fall in the euro, may say more about the dollar than the euro. «In part this no doubt reflects a lack of confidence in the USD as a safe haven, but also may suggest that the market has already largely covered downside risks to the EUR and other risk currencies via options,» they say in a note.

Банк - Morgan Stanley все равно ожидает рост рубль к корзине до 32.50 в 2011 году.ЦБ России снова расширит коридор колебаний

В заявлении банка говорится, что цены на нефть все еще выше 100 долларов и это"… послужит поддержкой платежному балансу». Кроме того эксперты Morgan Stanley ожидают, что Центробанк России расширит коридор колебаний против валютной корзины на 1 рубль во втором квартале этого года из-за инфляционных опасений.

14:20 23May11 RTRS-FXNEWS- Morgan Stanley sees rouble at 32.50 vs basket by end-2011 Morgan Stanley remains bullish on the rouble, expecting it to rise to 32.50 vs the euro-dollar basket and stay there until end-2011, underpinned by forecast for oil prices at an average of $110/bbl. «This will support a strong external and fiscal account,» Morgan Stanley says in a note. It also expects the central bank to widen the rouble's trading band vs the basket by 1 rouble in the second quarter on political concerns about inflation offsetting concerns about rouble appreciation. Rouble at 33.59 against the basket.

Еврокомиссар Olli Rehn говорит:Решение по Греции будет объявлено в ближайшие недели.

May 23 (Bloomberg) — European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said that he expects a decision on Greece to be made soon. “I expect that in coming days or weeks we will be able to take decisions how Greece will be financed from 2012 onwards and what Greece itself is doing to finance itself from 2012 onwards” with the help of its privatization program, Rehn told reporters in Vienna today. “We will need to take new steps concerning Greece,” Rehn said. “Greece itself has to take new steps to convince its partners and creditor countries.” “Greece needs to take decisions on how it will meet its fiscal targets for this year,” he said, adding that “it’ll require concrete measures.”

Еврокомиссар Olli Rehn говорит:Греции надо много работать над сокращением дефицита бюджета

VIENNA, May 23 (Reuters) — Greece must seriously reinforce its budget consolidation steps and pursue privatisations soon, the EU's top economic official said on Monday. «These are a matter of urgency,» Olli Rehn, the economic and monetary affairs commissioner in the European Union's executive Commission, said in a speech to a conference on European integration in Vienna. Euro zone policy makers had not eradicated the risk of financial meltdown, Rehn said: «We have contained but not banned that risk yet.» Turning to the euro zone economy's performance, Rehn said: «The economic recovery in Europe is retaining its momentum despite some external turbulence and uncertainities in financial markets.»

КУДА ПОДАТЬСЯ КЭРРИ-ТРЕЙДУ: РОССИЯ

График учетной ставки ФРС:

Индикатор, характеризующий остатки денежных средств американских банков на балансе ФРС («свободные мощности»):

Графики кривых доходностей UST и рублевого долга:

как видно из графика — разрыв в доходностях очень существенный и может являться «лакомым куском» для кэрри-трейда

График ставки рефинсирования ЦБ РФ

ЦБ РФ уже дважды повысил ставку в этом году, и аналитики делают прогнозы, что это не в последний раз

Единственный рублевый суверенный евробонд РФ(10-ти летний):

Спред к 10-летним UST:

Доходности торгуемых рублевых корпоративных бондов (дать полную таблицу ВСЕХ бондов очень сложно, т.к. их много):

Стоимость фрндирования кэрии-трейда с помощью СВОПов (в таблице указаны своп-поинты, с годовым горизонтом):

График RUB-USD SWAP 1YR:

Зависимость национальной валюты(RUB) от цен на нефть:

Учитывая, что ЦБ РФ стоит перед решением непростой задачи: удержать курс национальной валюты от дальнейшего укрепления с одной стороны и таргетирования инфляции с другой стороны, будущее пары USDRUB выглядит достаточно туманно и достижение шаманских целей от Патриции вполне возможно.

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