Хронология из DJN Market Talk

By Wes Goodman

 

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose on speculation a report today will show consumer prices posted their first annual decline since 1955.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell two basis points to 2.83 percent as of 10:01 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 2.75 percent security due February 2019 rose 5/32, or $1.56 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 10/32. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

 

To contact the reporter on this story:

Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net.

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Yasuhiko Seki

 

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell against the dollar and the yen on speculation European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet will signal at a speech today that he may cut interest rates to spur growth in the region.

The 16-nation currency headed for its second weekly loss against the greenback after ECB council member Erkki Liikanen flagged the possibility of introducing an unorthodox monetary policy to deal with a deepening recession and the financial system meltdown. The yen headed for a fourth weekly drop versus the dollar, the longest losing streak since December 2007, on speculation demand for the currency as a haven will wane.

“The outlook for a narrowing interest-rate differential is negative for the euro,” said Akio Yoshino, chief economist at Societe Generale Asset Management Ltd in Tokyo. “The euro may fall to below $1.25 in the near future.”

Europe’s currency dropped to $1.2639 as of 10:10 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.2674 late in New York yesterday. The euro weakened to 118.90 yen from 119.37 yesterday, when it reached 120.34 yen, the highest level since Jan. 19. The U.S. currency traded at 94.07 yen, from 94.20 yesterday.

 

To contact the reporter on this story:

Yasuhiko Seki in Tokyo at yseki5@bloomberg.net.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2009.02.19 23:04:48   Nasdaq Closes Down 25 (1.7%) At 1443; Hewlett-Packard Weighs

2009.02.19 23:04:29   DJIA Closes Down 89 (1.18%) At 7466;BofA,Citi Lead Decliners

2009.02.19 23:05:13   DJIA Breaks Through Bear-Market Lows; BofA, Citi Off 14%         

2009.02.19 23:04:04   DJIA Closes At Lowest Point Since Oct 9, 2002       

2009.02.19 22:52:18   US Treasurys Slip, Curve Steepens On Supply Concerns

2009.02.19 22:48:59   Canada Afternoon: C$ Edges Higher In Constrained Trading

2009.02.19 22:14:27   Obama: Buy America Provisions Consistent With WTO, NAFTA

2009.02.19 22:09:22   OIL FUTURES: Crude Jumps On Surprise Oil Inventory Draw

2009.02.19 21:48:13   OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Settles At $39.48/Bbl, Up $4.86

 

 

By Mark Shenk

 

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose 14 percent, the biggest gain in seven weeks, after a U.S. government report showed an unexpected drop in supplies as imports declined.

Inventories fell 138,000 barrels to 350.6 million barrels last week, the first decline this year, the Energy Department said today in a weekly report. Stockpiles were forecast to increase by 3.2 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to three supply cuts in 2008 to halt sliding prices.

“This shows that the OPEC cuts are starting to have an impact here,” said Rick Mueller, director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “The smaller volume coming from OPEC members was reflected in a big drop in imports.”

Crude oil for March delivery rose $4.86 to settle at $39.48 a barrel at 2:44 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 11 percent this year.

The March contract expires tomorrow. The more-active April contract increased $2.77, or 7.4 percent, to end the session at $40.18 a barrel.

Imports of crude oil declined 859,000 barrels a day to 8.79 million, the lowest level since September, when ports were shut in the aftermath of hurricanes Gustav and Ike, the report showed.

Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, where New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude is delivered, declined 52,000 barrels to 34.9 million barrels, the report showed. Inventories in the week ended Feb. 6 were the highest since at least April 2004, when the department began keeping records for the location.

Narrower Differential

The price of oil for delivery in April is 70 cents a barrel higher than for March, down from a $2.79 premium yesterday. The spread between the first- and second-month contracts is the lowest since Nov. 20. December futures are $10.06 higher than the front-month contract, versus $12.11 yesterday.

“The slight drop in supply was important for the psychology of the market, and it’s being reflected in the spread,” said Mike Zarembski, senior commodity analyst at OptionsXpress Holdings Inc. in Chicago. “People are running for cover before the contract expires tomorrow.”

Volume in electronic trading on the exchange was 510,386 contracts as of 3:25 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 507,765 contracts yesterday, 2.4 percent lower than the average over the past three months. Open interest was 1.22 million contracts yesterday. The exchange has a one-business-day delay in reporting open interest and full volume data.

Gasoline Supplies

Gasoline inventories rose 1.11 million barrels to 218.7 million barrels, the Energy Department said. Stockpiles were forecast to fall by 500,000 barrels, according to the median of responses by 16 analysts in the Bloomberg News survey.

Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, dropped 813,000 barrels to 140.8 million, the department said. A 1.5 million-barrel decline was forecast.

Fuel demand during the past four weeks averaged 20 million barrels a day, down 0.1 percent from the average over the same period last year, the report showed. Gasoline consumption averaged 8.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up 0.8 percent from a year earlier.

“The most important thing in this report is that it shows demand is no longer falling,” said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., an energy consulting company in New Canaan, Connecticut. “We have to start looking a lot more at the supply numbers in the weeks ahead. If demand recovers, we will have to start wondering if supplies are sufficient.”

Gasoline futures for March delivery rose 3.34 cents, or 3.1 percent, to settle at $1.0986 a gallon in New York, the first gain in five days. Heating oil for March delivery increased 5.76 cents, or 5 percent, to end the session at $1.2045 a gallon.

The average U.S. pump price for regular gasoline dropped 0.8 cent to $1.949 a gallon, AAA, the nation’s largest motorist organization, said on its Web site today. Prices have declined 53 percent from the record $4.114 a gallon reached on July 17.

OPEC Production

OPEC cut oil production by 3.5 percent in January, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Members with output quotas, all except Iraq, pumped 26.2 million barrels a day, 1.355 million more than their target of 24.845 million barrels a day.

The group will load 22.8 million barrels a day in the month ending March 7, down from 23.5 million a day in the month ended Feb. 7, Oil Movements said in a report today. It’s the lowest volume since February 2004, according to the Halifax, England- based tanker tracker.

Oil also climbed as the euro strengthened against the U.S. currency on speculation that Europe will take steps to address the financial crisis. Investors purchased commodities as a store of value.

Weaker Dollar

“The weaker dollar tends to send people looking for an inflation hedge and at least theoretically will kick up demand overseas because oil will be cheaper for them,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates, a Galena, Illinois, energy consultant. “A major reason prices were knocked down into the $30s was the strength of the dollar.”

Europe’s currency rose as much as 1.8 percent to $1.276, its biggest intraday gain since Dec. 30. It touched $1.2513 yesterday, the lowest level since Nov. 21.

Brent crude oil for April settlement increased $2.44, or 6.2 percent, to $41.99 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. Futures touched $39.35 yesterday, the lowest this year.

 

To contact the reporter on this story:

Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

 

 

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

 

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell for the first time this week as demand eased after the price reached the highest since July. Silver also declined.

Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, rose to a record 1,024.1 metric tons yesterday. The seven-day relative strength index for gold topped 70 for three straight days, signaling that prices may fall in the short term. Yesterday, the metal reached $988.70 an ounce, the highest since July 15.

“You’re bound to see some speculative selling against the $1,000 level,” said Leonard Kaplan, the president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. “There are no fundamentals supporting this market. It’s all investor driven.”

Gold futures for April delivery fell $1.70, or 0.2 percent, to $976.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price still is up 10 percent this year.

Silver futures for March delivery slid 35.5 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $13.935 an ounce. The metal still has gained 23 percent this year.

The SPDR Gold Trust is now the seventh-largest holder of gold, after the International Monetary Fund and the governments of the U.S., Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland.

Switzerland has 1,040 tons of gold, according to the producer-funded World Gold Council.

Funds in the SPDR Gold Trust have already increased by 243.9 tons this year, compared to 152.4 tons for all of 2008. Jewelry demand, which accounted for 58 percent of purchases in 2008, fell 11 percent to 2,137.5 tons, according to a gold council report released yesterday. Investment in all bullion ETFs last year rose 27 percent to 321.4 tons.

Investment Demand

“Now that investment demand has displaced all jewelry demand and is accommodating heavy returning scrap, the only way that a further increase in investment can occur is if gold prices move higher,” UBS AG analyst John Reade said in a report today.

Still, gold may continue to climb as investors seek an alternative to stocks and bonds, Kaplan said. The metal reached a record $1,033.90 on March 17.

More than $27 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities in the past year as credit losses and writedowns reached $1.1 trillion. This year, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is down 14 percent, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has returned 1.2 percent.

“Gold is the new flavor of the month,” Kaplan said. “The reason gold keeps rising is because people are fed up to the gills with the traditional investment system because it has failed them.”

The metal has gained this year on speculation that government spending will trigger inflation. The U.S. has pledged more than $9.7 trillion to ease the recession and credit crisis.

U.S. producer prices rose 0.8 percent in January, following a 1.9 percent in December, figures from the Labor Department showed today. The increase was the first in six months.

 

To contact the reporter on this story:

Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net.

 

 

By Shobhana Chandra and Bob Willis

 

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Producer prices in the U.S. climbed more than forecast in January, a gain that’s unlikely to continue as other figures showed further deterioration in manufacturing and the job market.

Wholesale costs rose 0.8 percent, with prices excluding food and fuel advancing 0.4 percent, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The department also reported that the number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits surged to 4.99 million two weeks ago. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said manufacturing in its region shrank the most since 1990.

Inflation is likely to remain contained for some years by the prolonged U.S. recession, according to projections from Fed policy makers released yesterday. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. today said it will reintroduce store-brand groceries to entice consumers tightening household budgets.

“Given the extent to which demand is dropping, it’s hard to see price increases holding up,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “We’re getting worse very rapidly. People have been hoping for some slowing in the rate of decline in the economy; you can’t see that in the numbers.”

Some Fed officials were concerned over a risk of deflation at last month’s policy meeting, according to minutes of the gathering released by the central bank yesterday. The Fed has injected an unprecedented amount of cash and loans into the financial system in an effort to stem the economy’s decline.

Leading Indicators

Those injections have caused a surge in the supply of money, which spurred a bigger-than-forecast gain in the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators in January. The gauge rose 0.4 percent, the most since December 2006, the New York-based research group said today.

U.S. stocks fell following the reports, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 index down 1.2 percent to close at 778.9. Treasuries dropped, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note rising to 2.85 percent at 4:18 p.m. in New York from 2.76 percent late yesterday.

Makers of autos, communications gear and pharmaceuticals were among the industries boosting prices last month, the report from Labor showed. Passenger car prices rose 0.3 percent, communications equipment jumped a record 1.3 percent and drug companies boosted prices by 1.1 percent for a second month.

Won’t ‘Stick’

“It is doubtful that the price increases will be able to stick given the weakening economy and rising unemployment,” said James O’Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, who projected wholesale prices would rise 0.9 percent. While “inflation hasn’t collapsed yet, the big concern still is that inflation will fall too much,” he said.

Wholesale food costs fell 0.4 percent in January, a second consecutive drop, the government said. Wal-Mart’s move to reintroduce its Great Value line may intensify pressure on food manufacturers to hold down prices and to develop competitive new products because of their reliance on sales through Wal-Mart’s stores.

Fuel prices also rose last month, climbing 3.7 percent, according to Labor’s figures. Crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which surged to a record $147.27 a barrel in July, plunged 71 percent to an average $42 in December. Oil costs held close to that level in January, before sliding again so far this month.

Job Losses

Rising joblessness argues against continued price increases. Total unemployment benefit rolls surged by 170,000 in the week ended Feb. 7, according to Labor, and first-time applications were unchanged at 627,000 last week, higher than economists projected.

General Motors Corp., the largest U.S. automaker, said this week it will cut about 47,000 more jobs worldwide as it sheds brands and seeks as much as $16.6 billion in new loans to avoid bankruptcy. Chrysler LLC, propped up like GM with federal assistance, said it’s seeking $5 billion more from the government and will shed 3,000 more positions.

“We have continued to see an unprecedented decline in the automotive sector,” Chrysler Chief Executive Officer Robert Nardelli said in a briefing with reporters. “The focus of this company for the last two years and going forward is going to be to right-size for the marketplace and the realities of the economy.”

The Fed Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index dropped to minus 41.3 this month, lower than forecast, compared with minus 24.3 in January, the bank said today. Negative numbers signal contraction. Measures of employment and sales plunged to the lowest levels since the Philadelphia Fed’s records began in 1968.

‘Substantial Correction’

“The economy is still contracting at a substantial pace,” Lewis Alexander, chief economist at Citigroup Inc. in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “We are still in the midst of a very substantial correction.”

The world’s largest economy will contract 2 percent this year, the biggest drop in the postwar era, according to projections in a Bloomberg News survey taken Feb. 2 to Feb. 10. The unemployment rate may climb to 8.8 percent this year, according to the poll.

 

To contact the reporters on this story:

Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net;

Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net