Хронология из DJN Market Talk

РБК, 13 янв -- Дефицит федерального бюджета США за I квартал 2008-2009 финансового года (октябрь - декабрь 2008г.) составил рекордные 485,2 млрд долл. Этот показатель уже превысил бюджетный дефицит за весь предыдущий финансовый год.

По итогам 2007-2008 финансового года дефицит федерального бюджета США составлял "всего" 454,8 млрд долл.

Как сообщило Министерство финансов США, в декабре 2008г. государственные расходы превысили доходы на 83,6 млрд долл., хотя годом ранее был зафиксирован профицит в размере 48,3 млрд долл.

Резкое увеличение затрат американского правительства за прошедшие месяцы связано с продолжающейся в стране экономической рецессией, на борьбу с которой власти США бросили сотни миллиардов долларов. В частности американский Минфин с начала прошлого октября израсходовал почти 250 млрд долл. в рамках 700-миллиардной программы по стабилизации финансового сектора.

Администрация нового президента США Барака Обамы приступает к работе 20 января. Новый глава Белого дома уже предупредил, что в ближайшие годы США будут вынуждены свыкнуться с триллионным дефицитом федерального бюджета. "В перспективе нам светит измеряемый в триллионах дефицит бюджета в ближайшие годы, даже несмотря на восстановление экономики, над чем мы сейчас работаем", - заявил избранный президент.

Сразу после вступления в должность Б.Обама планирует объявить новую масштабную экономическую программу, рассчитанную на два года.

Ее стоимость, по оценкам специалистов, может составить 800 млрд долл., сообщает Associated Press. Дефицит федерального бюджета США в 2008-2009 финансовом году проецируется Бюджетным управлением конгресса на уровне 1,2 трлн долл.

 

 

РБК, 13 янв -- Международные наблюдатели документально подтвердили блокаду Украиной транзита российского газа.

Как говорится в сообщении Газпрома, наблюдатели международной комиссии по мониторингу в Киеве Юлиус Скач (SPP a.s.), Сергей Базалеев ("Газпром экспорт"), Петер Жахорски (Estrim), Алайн Россиньол (Gaz de France Suez), Роберто Мерло (ЕС), подписали почасовой отчет по газоизмерительным станциям, который свидетельствует об отсутствии прокачки газа по транзитным газопроводам Украины в направлении Европы, в то время как на газоизмерительной станции "Суджа" Курской области давление на входе в ГТС Украины составляет 70 атмосфер.

Аналогичный почасовой отчет, также подтверждающий отсутствие прокачки газа в западном направлении, был подписан наблюдателями международной комиссии по мониторингу Йоханом Хаумером (OMV) и Олегом Антоновым ("Газпром экспорт") на ГИС "Ужгород", отмечается в сообщении.

Ранее Газпром получил отказ "Нефтегаза Украины" транзитировать газ в Словакию по ужгородскому коридору. Как сообщил заместитель председателя правления ОАО "Газпром" Александр Медведев, "получен очередной отказ "Нефтегаза Украины" принять российский газ в свою систему, на этот раз по ужгородскому коридору. На нашу заявку на транзит по маршруту ГИС "Суджа" - ГИС "Ужгород" 22,2 млн куб. м газа в сутки в Словакию, где сейчас сложилась особенно тяжелая ситуация со снабжением природным газом, "Нефтегаз" ответил шаблонным отказом", - сказал А.Медведев.

Аргумент украинской компании все тот же, что и при блокаде поставок в балканском направлении: требование неких "гарантий транзита на продолжительное время", отметил он.

"Имея на руках действующий контракт на транзит российского газа до 2013г. и подписанные всеми сторонами правила мониторинга, о каких еще гарантиях долгосрочного транзита можно говорить?! Для всех в мире уже давно очевидно, что украинская сторона обязана перейти от отговорок к конкретным делам", - подчеркнул А.Медведев.

Напомним, Газпром 13 января в 10:00 мск возобновил транзит газа в Европу через Украину согласно договоренностям с ЕС и Украиной. Поставки осуществлялись на газоизмерительную станцию "Суджа". Концерн планировал поставить в балканские страны 76,6 млн куб. м газа, а также удовлетворить заявку Словакии на поставку 22,2 млн куб. м. Но в газотранспортную систему Украины этот газ не вошел. Как заявил глава Газпрома Алексей Миллер, украинская сторона "не открыла краны".

 

 

РБК, 13 янв -- Российский транзитный газ, который должен находиться в газотранспортной системе Украины, разворован. Такое заявление сделал официальный представитель ОАО "Газпром" Сергей Куприянов.

Он отметил, что такой вывод можно сделать из заявлений Украины о том, что они не могут обеспечить транзит газа из отсутствия в системе необходимого объема.

Газпром до сих пор не получил уведомления от Украины об уполномоченной компании для реализации контроля и мониторинга транзита газа, сообщил на пресс-конференции в Москве зампред правления Газпрома Александр Медведев.

Он отметил, что российская сторона соответствующее уведомление направила еще вчера. Кроме того, по его словам, Украина не предоставила списка своих наблюдателей, хотя они присутствуют на объектах на территории РФ.

По словам главы Газпрома Алексея Миллера, Украина не дала внятного объяснения тому, почему не может возобновить транзит газа через свою территорию.

"Никакого внятного объяснения со стороны Украины о том, почему не поставляется газ, нет", - сказал А.Миллер премьер-министру Владимиру Путину, который посетил диспетчерское управление холдинга.

В.Путин отметил, что сегодня представители НАК "Нефтегаз Украины" заявили о невозможности транзита российского газа по предложенному маршруту. Глава Газпрома в ответ на это сообщил премьеру, что технических причин невозобновления транспортировки нет.

"Не может быть никаких причин, потому что подача газа через ГИС "Суджи" - это подача газа в экспортный газопровод, поставка по которому должна осуществляться для европейских потребителей прямым транзитом", - сказал он.

По словам А.Миллера, Газпром сегодня "дал команду на возобновление транзита, началась подача газа в направлении Украины", но "линейный кран со стороны Украины не открыт" и, соответственно, транзит не идет.

По словам А.Миллера, Газпром готов удовлетворить заявки на получение газа в объеме 76,6 млн куб. м для балканских стран, 22,2 млн куб. м - для Словакии. На сегодня заявки были приняты в полном объеме от Молдавии, Болгарии, Румынии, Турции, Македонии, Греции, а также заявка Словакии.

"Но мы сейчас даже одного млн куб. м не можем поставить", - сказал глава Газпрома, пояснив, что газ прокачен до входа в газотранспортную систему (ГТС) Украины, но дальше из-за действий украинской стороны не идет. "В ГТС Украины ни одного куб. м не подано", - заключил А.Миллер.

Газпром направил европейским партнерам уведомление о форс-мажорных обстоятельствах в связи с невозобновлением транзита газа через территорию Украины, сообщил А.Медведев.

А.Медведев подчеркнул, что Газпром выработал комплексный план возобновления транзита и готов к его исполнению. Дело остается за украинской стороной.

Отвечая на вопрос о путях выхода из сложившейся ситуации, он сказал, что единственным выходом является реализация этого плана. По его мнению, мировому сообществу и коллегам из Евросоюза необходимо "призвать украинских контрагентов к исполнению подписанных документов". "Никаких других действий быть не может", - сказал А.Медведев.

Он также указал, что Газпром несет убытки из-за остановки транзита и уже прогнозирует недополучение экспортной выручки. "Надеемся, этот конфликт будет завершен в кратчайшие сроки, и мы сможем начать поставки, может, даже в увеличенном объеме, для компенсации потерь", - заявил замглавы Газпрома.

Кроме того, как сообщил С.Куприянов, Газпром получил требование от Украины о предоставлении ей 140 млн куб. м газа для восполнения транзитного объема.

Он подчеркнул, что заявление украинской стороны о том, что после возобновления транзита газ может дойти до потребителей в Европе только через 36 часов, может означать фактическое присвоение российского газа, находящегося сейчас в транзитной трубе.

"Это может означать только одно - наш, российский газ, находящийся в транзитном газопроводе, разворован, и наши украинские коллеги прямо об этом говорят. Сегодня мы получили сообщение от украинской компании о том, что для того, чтобы они обеспечили транзит, мы должны им подать как минимум 140 млн куб. м газа для восполнения транзитных объемов в западном направлении, то есть прямо признают, что этого газа у них нет", - отметил С.Куприянов.

 

 

By Toru Fujioka and Tatsuo Ito

 

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy may be the first among the Group of Seven nations to recover because its banks and companies are relatively healthy, an economic policy aide at the Cabinet Office said.

“It’s possible Japan will be the first one to see signs of recovery,” Takashi Omori, an adviser to Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano, said in an interview on Jan. 9. “Damage in the financial sector has been relatively light and corporate health has dramatically improved.”

Japanese banks are still lending even as the global credit crunch intensifies, setting them apart from counterparts in the U.S. and Europe. The world’s second-largest economy has become more resilient to global shocks after three recessions since 1990 forced companies to fire workers and clean up debt.

“Japan can’t escape the global recession, but should be among the first to recover,” said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “Corporate Japan is heading into this downturn in relatively lean shape with little need to slash employment or capacity.”

Lending by Japan’s banks accelerated at the fastest pace in 16 years in December and the government has avoided buying stakes in the nation’s lenders even as the deepening global crisis forces policy makers in the U.S. and Europe to rescue financial companies.

“At the earliest, we will see a sign of recovery in the second half of this year,” said Omori, 57, a former economist at UBS AG in Tokyo. “Yet, we still need to watch downside risks.”

Fuel-Efficient

Omori, who also became the head of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation economic council this month, said demand for Japan’s fuel-efficient technologies may spur growth.

Mitsubishi Motors Corp. last week said it may supply PSA Peugeot Citroen with electric cars. The Nikkei newspaper reported production would likely double to 10,000 vehicles for Peugeot from 2011 as a result.

Job cuts by companies including Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. are evidence businesses are better able to adjust to a recession than during previous downturns, he said.

Omori said sentiment surveys such as the central bank’s Tankan and government’s consumer and merchant confidence reports should be watched closely as they may provide clues for when the economy will pull out of its recession.

Record Lows

The Tankan plunged the most in 34 years in December and sentiment among households and merchants dropped to record lows.

Omori said one of his biggest challenges as the chairman of the APEC economic council will be preventing the spread of protectionism among APEC’s 21 member countries.

Russia last month increased duties on automobile imports, China reintroduced tax breaks for exporters, and India imposed caps on steel imports. France pledged $7.6 billion to shield its companies from foreign businesses.

“Free trade is fundamental,” said Omori, who has spent more than 32 years at the Cabinet Office. “If protectionism spreads around the world, the deterioration of the global economy will reach another level.”

 

To contact the reporter on this story:

Toru Fujioka in Tokyo at tfujioka1@bloomberg.net

 

 

Job vacancies in London’s financial- services industry sank by two thirds in December compared with a year ago as

a “serious lack of confidence” in the U.K. economy curbed hiring, according to a survey.

 

The U.K. has overtaken Germany to become the world’s largest consumer of imported wine by volume, a

nd demand is set to increase over the next four years, according to Vinexpo, the world’s biggest wine and spirit exhibition.

 

Treasury Secretary-designate Timothy Geithner won Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus’s support

after meeting with members of the panel to answer questions about his taxes and a housekeeper’s work status.

 

Morgan Stanley bought control of the Smith Barney broker unit of Citigroup Inc. for $2.7 billion,

two weeks after Bank of America Corp. purchased securities firm Merrill Lynch & Co.,

widening the shakeout on Wall Street from the worst credit panic in seven decades.

 

Bank of America Corp. will call its securities brokerage business Merrill Lynch Wealth Management

and keep the “bull” logo used in advertisements and investor reports since 1974.

 

Tumbling oil prices are forcing many of the richest Persian Gulf states to record budget deficits

and limit a critical source of foreign investment for poorer Arab countries.

 

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned that a fiscal stimulus won’t be enough to spur an economic recovery

and that the government may need to buy or guarantee banks’ tainted assets to revive growth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

2009.01.14 02:01:13   This Is Dow Jones In New York

2009.01.14 02:02:41   Nymex Crude Up As Mkt Eyes Inventory Data          

2009.01.14 02:01:31   Nikkei 225 Stock Average Opens Up 0.1% At 8425.75

2009.01.14 02:01:41   Lead 10-Yr JGB Futures Open Dn At 139.55 Vs 139.70 Tue

2009.01.14 01:59:48   Japan Nov Machine Orders Tipped Down 7.5% - Poll

2009.01.14 01:56:10   Crude Up As OPEC Cut Eyed Outpacing Demand Slump     

2009.01.14 02:01:10   Senate Committee Sets Geithner Hearing For Friday Jan 16

2009.01.14 01:48:32   Spot Gold $820.90; Technically Bearish - Analyst

2009.01.14 01:45:26   Lead Nikkei Futures Open Down 15 Points At 8360 On SGX

2009.01.14 01:39:17   Nymex Crude Higher; Saudi Cut, Options Expiry

2009.01.14 01:26:38   US Sen Rockefeller Applauds Obama's FCC Choice

2009.01.14 01:25:14   Citi's Corbat: Whole Smith Barney Was Not For Sale

2009.01.14 01:22:48   AUD/USD Selling May Be Overdone – ICAP

2009.01.14 01:04:11   EUR Could Suffer If Asian Stocks Sink - Trader

2009.01.14 01:01:23   Lacker: Thinks Rates Will Stay Very Low For Some Time     

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2009.01.14 00:59:10   Lacker: Supports FOMC's Decision To Lower Rates Near Zero

2009.01.14 00:33:53   Gold $820.30; Retest Of $800 Likely – Kitco

 

 

 

 

 

MOSCOW, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Russian gold output rose by 11.1 percent to 168.84 tonnes in the first 11 months of last year from 151.91 tonnes a year ago mainly on the back of increased mine output, the country's main industry lobby said on Tuesday.
The Russian Gold Industrialists Union has said it expects gold output to rise this year by 8 percent overall to 176 tonnes after five years of decline.
Output from mines rose by 11.5 percent to 151.16 tonnes in January-November 2008 from 135.52 tonnes a year ago, a union statement said.
Output achieved by refining gold from scrap rose by 22.9 percent to 6.46 tonnes from 5.25 tonnes. Production of gold as a by-product of other metals rose 0.7 percent to 11.22 tonnes from 11.14 tonnes, it said.
Most Russian gold is mined in the country's east.
Krasnoyarsk in eastern Siberia -- home to top miner Polyus Gold's main mines -- was the country's largest gold-producing region in the first 11 months of 2008.
It was followed by the Siberian Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the far eastern Chukotka peninsula, union data showed.

 

2009.01.14 00:21:17   Commodity Roundup: Most Base Metals Recover

2009.01.14 00:19:58   WSJ UPDATE: Citi To Announce Major Reorganization -Sources

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2009.01.14 00:09:15   Analyst: HSBC Needs To Raise $20B To $30B In Capital, Cut Div  

2009.01.14 00:01:25   Fed's Lacker Repeats Speech Given Last Week In Baltimore

2009.01.14 00:01:28   Fed's Lacker: Can't Let Inflation 'Drift From View'     

2009.01.14 00:01:22   Fed To Allow German Bank To Open NYC Office    

2009.01.14 00:01:16   Fed's Lacker: Recession On Par With Those In 70s, Early 80s

2009.01.13 23:55:37   ABC/Wash Post: US Consumer Confidence Steady In Latest Wk

2009.01.13 23:51:23   Morgan Stanley And Citi To Form Industry-Leading Wealth Management Business Through Joint Venture >C     

2009.01.13 23:53:12   Morgan Stanley, Citi Combined Firm To Have $1.7 Trillion In Client Assets  

2009.01.13 23:53:15   Citi, Morgan Stanley To Call Combined Firm Morgan Stanley Smith Barney>C

2009.01.13 23:39:16   EUR/USD Bearishly Breaks Trading Ranges - RBC

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2009.01.13 23:30:19   WORLD FOREX: Euro Extends Slide Ahead ECB Meeting

2009.01.13 23:30:12   Tsy Completes Another Investment At Bank Of America

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2009.01.13 23:24:04   Bank Of Canada Jan 13/09 Closing Rates: US Dlr At C$1.2248

2009.01.13 23:16:28   Treasurys Nearly Flat, Bernanke Says Fed May Buy U.S. Debt         

2009.01.13 23:12:18   US Stocks Mixed As Earnings Seasons Begins

2009.01.13 23:04:32   Nasdaq Closes Up 8 (0.5%) At 1546; Energy, Fincls Strong

2009.01.13 23:04:18   DJIA Closes Down 25 (0.3%) At 8449; BofA, GE Lead Decliners    

2009.01.13 23:03:41   CORRECT: Chrysler, GM Sought, Not Granted, $17.4B, In Aid

2009.01.13 23:03:05   USD/CAD Ends Up, But Well Off Highs

2009.01.13 23:02:58   DJIA Closes Lower After Briefly Pushing Into Green Late 

2009.01.13 23:02:55   Key Interest Rates At 4 PM EST; 10-Yr Note Yld 2.291%   

2009.01.13 22:52:58   US Stocks Rally Late; DJIA Down 5, SnP 500 Up 3

2009.01.13 22:51:24   US Stocks Rally Late; Fincls Help Push DJIA Into Green       

2009.01.13 22:49:22   Kohn: Opening Up FOMC Meetings Would Cause Problems

2009.01.13 22:49:11   Risk Aversion Drives AUD/USD Lower - CBA

2009.01.13 22:47:47   US Stocks Down On Earnings Fears, GE Hurts Industrials     

2009.01.13 22:41:27   World Bank Economist: Stronger China Yuan Won't Fix Imbalances

2009.01.13 22:38:10   Canada Afternoon: C$ Dn On Risk Aversion, Weak Trade Data

2009.01.13 22:36:10   Gazprom: Intl Monitors Say Kiev Blocking Russian Gas To Europe

2009.01.13 22:30:22   Dow Jones 3:30 PM Averages: DJIA 8431.44 DN 42.53

2009.01.13 22:28:25   Euro Extends Slide To Fresh 5-Wk Lows

 

 

By Stanley White and Ye Xie

 

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The euro traded near a five-week low versus the dollar before a report that economists say will show Europe’s industrial output fell the most since 1993, adding to expectations the European Central Bank will cut interest rates.

The 16-nation currency was also near a six-week low versus the yen on speculation lower borrowing costs will reduce the appeal of euro-denominated assets to overseas investors. The dollar traded near the weakest level in a month versus the yen before reports on retail sales and manufacturing that may show the U.S. recession is deepening.

“There are a lot of orders to sell the euro,” said Akio Shimizu, chief manager of foreign-exchange trading in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp., a unit of Japan’s largest publicly listed bank. “Interest-rate cuts are likely and that is weighing on the euro. There’s not much good economic news coming out of Europe.”

The euro traded at $1.3184 as of 8:44 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3182 late yesterday in New York, when it touched $1.3141, the weakest level since Dec. 11. The euro was at 117.82 yen from 117.81 yen. It fell to 117.13 yen yesterday, the lowest since Dec. 5. The dollar was little changed at 89.35 yen. It slid yesterday to 88.79 yen, the weakest since Dec. 19. The euro may decline to $1.3100 today, Shimizu said.

European industrial production probably declined 6.1 percent in November from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The European Union statistics office is scheduled to release the data today.

ECB Rate

A Credit Suisse Group AG gauge of probability based on overnight index swaps indicated the ECB will lower its 2.5 percent main rate by at least 50 basis points tomorrow, with 7 percent odds that the cut will be deeper. The median forecast of 59 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is for a 0.5 percentage-point reduction.

The ECB has reduced interest rates by 1.5 percentage points since the beginning of last year, while the Fed cut its target 4 percentage points. The Bank of England lowered its main rate 4 full percentage points in 12 months, pushing it to 1.5 percent.

Europe’s currency lost 7 percent against the yen, 5.7 percent against the dollar and 5.1 percent against the pound this year as reports showed services and manufacturing shrank in December by the most in at least a decade and inflation fell below the ECB’s ceiling of 2 percent for the first time since August 2007.

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures touched 84.446 yesterday, the strongest level since Dec. 11, after the Commerce Department said the U.S. trade deficit shrank to $40.4 billion in November, the smallest since November 2003, from a revised $56.7 billion in October.

The index has gained 3.6 percent this year, after losing 6 percent in December, when the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate to a range between zero and 0.25 percent, a record low.

“The Dollar Index has some resistance in the 84.50 area,” said Alan Kabbani, a senior currency trader at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. “My view is that the Dollar Index could continue to rally somewhere around 87 or 88, to the high that we set” in October.

 

To contact the reporters on this story:

Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net;

Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: January 13, 2009 18:58 EST

 

 

 

 

 

By Reg Curren

 

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures in New York fell to the lowest in more than two years on speculation demand will stay depressed through the end of the peak heating season.

Supply may average as much as 2 billion cubic feet a day more than demand through early April, said Martin King, an analyst at FirstEnergy Capital Corp. in Calgary. Demand for gas used to make steel, chemicals and run factories, accounting for 29 percent of U.S. consumption, has declined with the U.S. recession. Production of the fuel gained in 2008.

“There’s this continued balancing act right now between the poor economic data on the one side, dragging down gas, and how much demand will there be from the cold,” King said today. “People want to see more proof in the pudding before prices can move higher.”

Natural gas for February delivery fell 35.8 cents, or 6.5 percent, to settle at $5.184 per million British thermal units at 3:09 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest closing price since Sept. 27, 2006, when gas was trading at $4.201. Today’s drop was the biggest since Nov. 25.

Gas consumption in 2009 will probably shrink 1 percent as industrial usage declines 3 percent, the Energy Department said in a report today. Supplies of the heating and industrial fuel probably expanded 5.9 percent in 2008 and usage rose 0.7 percent.

“We’re oversupplied,” said Carl Neill, an energy analyst at Risk Management Inc. in Chicago. “This could drag on for a while when you see how bad the economy is.”

The U.S. economy will contract 1.5 percent this year, a half percentage point more than projected last month, according to the median of 59 forecasts in a monthly Bloomberg News survey.

U.S. Supplies

U.S. gas inventories stood at 2.83 trillion cubic feet the week ended Jan. 2, the Energy Department said last week. The surplus to the five-year average expanded to 3.2 percent from 2 percent in the previous week’s report.

King expects a withdrawal of 125 billion cubic feet in the department’s next report, set for release on Jan. 15. The average decline for the week is 88 billion cubic feet, according to department figures.

Stockpiles probably declined 109 billion cubic feet as some industrial usage returned after holiday shutdowns in late December, Scott Speaker, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s natural gas strategist, said in a note today.

“We expect the industrial demand weakness to continue and likely accelerate,” Speaker said. “Some of the layoffs and manufacturing slowdowns are just now taking their toll.”

Factory Cuts

DuPont Co., the third-largest chemical maker, said last month it plans to cut 4.2 percent of its workforce because of sliding demand. Dow Chemical Co., the biggest U.S. chemical maker, also announced production curtailments. Alcoa Inc., the world’s largest aluminum maker, announced its third production cut in as many months last week.

The Energy Department supply report may show a decline in U.S. stockpiles of 105 billion cubic feet for the week ended Jan. 9, according to a survey of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the eastern half of the U.S. through Jan. 19 and then rebound to above average later next week, according to forecaster MDA Federal Inc.’s EarthSat Energy Weather of Rockville, Maryland.

Chicago may have lows of minus 17 Fahrenheit (minus 27 Celsius) by Jan. 16. New York may fall to 3 degrees by Jan. 17, the forecaster said. The typical lows are 14 degrees in Chicago and 26 in New York.

“This will represent winter’s severest challenge to stockpiles so far, though it will probably not be sufficient to make much of a dent in storage,” Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York, said in a note today.

Lower temperatures help lift demand because of residential heating needs, especially in the Midwest, where 72 percent of households rely on natural gas.

 

To contact the reporter on this story:

Reg Curren in Calgary at rcurren@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: January 13, 2009 15:35 EST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

 

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices rebounded on speculation that the recession will deepen, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as a store of value. Silver also gained.

The U.S. trade deficit in November narrowed the most in 12 years, a signal that world trade may contract as the economic slump worsens. Gold gained 5.5 percent last year as the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials fell 36 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 38 percent.

“Gold is not as weak as some of the other commodities,” said Frank Lesh, a trader at FuturePath Trading LLC in Chicago. “Volatility in other markets and the geopolitical tensions are always supportive for gold. A good dip in prices is a buying opportunity.”

Gold futures for February delivery rose $6.40, or 0.8 percent, to $827.40 an ounce at 11:39 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the price touched $814, the lowest for a most-active contract since Dec. 12. The metal fell 4 percent yesterday.

Silver futures for March delivery rose 9 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $10.84 an ounce on the Comex. The metal declined 24 percent in 2008.

Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, was little changed at 787.6 metric tons yesterday after reaching a record 787.9 tons on Jan. 6. Assets grew 24 percent last year.

Dollar Outlook

Still, gold’s gains may be limited should the dollar remain strong, Lesh said. The dollar gained as much as 1.4 percent against the euro today.

“Ultimately, the dollar is the driver,” Lesh said. “The dollar push is holding gold back. It looks like the ECB will be easing, and there won’t be anymore interest-rate reductions out of the U.S.”

The Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate in the U.S. is zero to 0.25 percent. The ECB’s main rate is at 2.5 percent.

Gold may also fall as the recession forces all asset prices lower, analysts said.

Disinflation may take away the “impetus to buy gold,” said Tom Pawlicki, a metals analyst at MF Global Ltd. in Chicago. There’s “pressure on the gold market offered by weak levels of physical demand, easing in credit-market tightness, a disinflationary environment, and from technical factors,” he said.

Dennis Gartman, an economist and editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter, advises buying gold should the metal rally above $890. UBS AG analyst John Reade said investors should look to purchase the metal below $800.

 

To contact the reporter on this story:

Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: January 13, 2009 11:41 EST

 

 

By Tony C. Dreibus

 

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat prices rebounded from the biggest plunge since at least 1986 on speculation that demand will increase for high-quality U.S. grain used to make staple foods such as bread and pasta.

Japan said today it plans to buy 90,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat for March shipment. The Philippines may boost imports of the grain to be used in animal feed because domestic corn prices more than doubled. The dollar’s rally may stall, making U.S. supplies more attractive, analysts said.

“The dollar is higher than it has been in awhile, so that offsets lower prices,” said Larry Young, a senior trader at Infinity Futures Inc. in Chicago. “But we are looking for a weaker dollar, and we could see demand pick up.”

Wheat futures for March delivery rose 1 cent, or 0.2 percent, to $5.7075 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture also said yesterday that domestic farmers seeded 42.1 million acres with winter varieties from September to November, down 9 percent from the prior year. That was less than the 44.1 million acres forecast by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Yesterday, futures plunged 9.5 percent, the most in at least 22 years, after the USDA said global inventories will be higher than forecast a month earlier.

The dollar has gained 3.6 percent this month against a weighted basket of six major currencies. The greenback will drop as the government attempts to spur an economic recovery, analysts said.

‘Funny Money’

“Look at all the funny money that’s coming out of Washington,” said Jeff McReynolds, the owner of McReynolds Marketing and Investments in Hays, Kansas. “They’re going to create so many government bonds, they’re not going to be such a hot item. Everybody wants bonds now because they’re scared, but that’s going to pass, and the dollar’s going to be in trouble.”

Wheat pared gains after Syria said it rejected offers in a tender to buy 200,000 tons of grain because prices were too high. Egypt said it bought 60,000 tons of Russian wheat, shunning U.S. supplies.

“Everybody’s been saying this cheap Black Sea wheat is going to run out and they’ve been selling enough and using exportable surplus, but even if they do that, then we’re competing against Canada and Australia,” McReynolds said.

Dry weather is expected to persist for at least the next four days in the U.S. southern Great Plains where hard-red winter wheat, used to make bread, is grown, Minneapolis-based Meteorlogix LLC said in a report.

Traders and growers aren’t concerned about dry weather yet. Plants currently dormant start growing again in February and March.

“It’s getting dry in the Southern Plains, but you don’t usually see people get very excited about crop conditions in January,” McReynolds said. “February is when wheat’s starting to green up. That’s when dry weather starts to matter.”

Wheat is the fourth-biggest U.S. crop, valued at $13.7 billion in 2007, behind corn, soybeans and hay, government data show.

 

To contact the reporter on this story:

Tony C. Dreibus in Chicago at Tdreibus@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: January 13, 2009 15:51 EST

 

 

By Dakin Campbell

 

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury notes maturing in five years and less were little changed as corporations sold almost $13 billion in debt and traders prepared for economic reports forecast to show U.S. retail sales slid and consumer prices declined in December.

U.S. securities fell earlier as the TED spread, a measure of banks’ reluctance to lend, dropped below 100 basis points for the first time since Aug. 15. The U.S. trade deficit shrank more than forecast, raising speculation domestic production will increase even as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said fiscal stimulus alone can’t spur a recovery.

“There is a little bit of a crowding out of Treasuries and into corporate bond issuance,” said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. “The tone in general for the credit markets has been a lot better.”

The two-year note yielded 0.74 percent at 4:29 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The 0.875 percent security due in December 2010 rose 1/32, or 31 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 100 1/4. The five-year note yielded 1.43 percent.

Yields on the benchmark 10-year note fell three basis points to 2.29 percent.

The U.S. Treasury received bids for more than three times the amount on offer today at a $24 billion sale of four-week bills and a $22 billion auction of 52-week bills. The sale of four-week bills drew a high discount rate of 0.02 percent, the lowest since zero percent Dec. 23, 2008, while the auction of 52-week bills drew a high discount rate of 0.43 percent.

Sales, Prices

Sales at U.S. retailers declined 1.2 percent in December, a sixth monthly drop, according to the median estimate of 78 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The Commerce Department will release the figures tomorrow. Labor Department data due Jan. 16 are likely to show consumer prices slid, according to a separate survey.

Bernanke said in a speech in London the government may need to buy or guarantee banks’ tainted assets to “further stabilize and strengthen the financial system.” In considering whether it also will purchase longer-term Treasuries, the Federal Open Market Committee “will focus on their potential to improve conditions in private credit markets, such as mortgage markets,” he said.

The U.S. government’s top AAA credit rating was affirmed by Standard & Poor’s, which expects the fiscal deterioration caused by the recession and credit crunch to be temporary. The rating is supported by “one of the most flexible economies of any high-income nation,” New York-based SnP said in a statement.

18 Percent Yields

Economists forecast losses for Treasuries through March as yields on two- and 10-year notes rise. The 10-year yield will rise to 2.4 percent by the end of the first quarter, according to the median forecast of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That’s down from the 2.9 percent estimate on Dec. 10. The two- year yield will likely stay at 0.8 percent, down from a 1 percent forecast Dec. 10.

The negative outlook for Treasuries and the highest yields in history on high-risk, high-yield bonds and loans are attracting fixed-income investors such as Babson Capital Management LLC and TCW Asset Management Co.

Investors poured $1.7 billion into funds that buy mostly high-yield bonds in the last five weeks of 2008, according to the mutual-fund tracking service EPFR Global in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The renewed demand follows declines that pushed the junk-bond market down 26 percent last year. Annual yields of 18 percent may compensate for the growing risk of corporate failures, said Jill Fields, a managing director at Babson, which oversees $2.5 billion in high-yield bonds.

Rate Locks

Corporations and universities were likely to sell Treasuries to prepare for debt auctions today, according to a note to clients by David Ader, head of U.S. interest-rate strategy at Greenwich, Connecticut-based RBS Greenwich Capital. The firm is one of the 17 primary dealers that trade with the U.S. central bank. Corporations offered $16.7 billion of bonds, according to Bloomberg data.

As companies sell debt, they enter into so-called rate lock agreements, in which they bet on Treasury prices falling to guard against the effect higher yields would have on the planned debt sale. Once the debt is sold, the agreements are ended.

The difference between what banks and the Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, narrowed 11 basis points to 99 basis points today. It last closed below 100 basis points on Aug. 15, and it peaked at a record 4.64 percentage points on Oct. 10, 2008.

Traders placed bets that yields on two-year securities will rise faster than those on longer-term debt. The difference in yield between the two securities, known as the yield curve, shrank to 1.55 percentage points from 1.68 percentage points a week ago and from 2.62 percentage points on Nov. 13, 2008.

Fannie, Freddie Debt

“Clearly we have gone lower, and the curve has gotten flatter,” said Brian Edmonds, head of interest rates at Cantor Fitzgerald LP in New York, another primary dealer. The Fed’s policy of buying long-term securities “should help the long end as we run into a wall at the front end.”

The central bank purchased $3.5 billion of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Federal Home Loan Bank debt under a program aimed at reducing mortgage costs.

The U.S. trade deficit shrank to $40.4 billion, the smallest since 2003, from a revised $56.7 billion in October, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.

“The difference accrues directly to GDP, if you will, so that’s a surprisingly strong degree of growth, largely on lower imports,” said Guy Lebas, chief economist and fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia.

Budget Deficit

The U.S. budget deficit soared to a record in the first quarter of the 2009 fiscal year, surpassing the shortfall for all of last year as the government used taxpayer money to shore up the financial system. The deficit swelled to $485.2 billion in the first three months of the fiscal year that started Oct. 1, the Treasury said today in Washington. For all of 2008, the shortfall was $454.8 billion.

Economists slashed forecasts for U.S. growth in 2009, according to a monthly Bloomberg News survey. Gross domestic product will contract 1.5 percent this year, a half percentage point more than projected last month, it showed.

 

To contact the reporter on this story:

Dakin Campbell in New York at dcampbell27@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 13, 2009 16:33 EST