Хронология из DJN Market Talk

By Grant Smith

 

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may dip below $25 a barrel next year if the recession that’s slashing fuel demand around the world spreads to China, Merrill Lynch & Co. said.

Global oil demand will contract in 2009 as economic growth slows to its weakest since 1982, Merrill Commodity Strategist Francisco Blanch said in a report today. In October, when oil was around $100 a barrel, the bank predicted that prices may slide to $50. Crude traded at $45.30 in New York today, the lowest since February 2005.

“A temporary drop below $25 a barrel is possible if the global recession extends to China and significant non-OPEC cuts are required,” Blanch said. “In the short-run, global oil demand growth will likely take a further beating as banks continue to cut credit to consumers and corporations.”

Crude hasn’t fallen below $25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange since November 2002.

Global oil demand has slumped as the U.S., Europe and Japan face simultaneous recessions for the first time since World War II. The number of Americans collecting jobless benefits rose to 4 million in the week to Nov. 22, a 26-year high, the Labor Department reported today. European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said the euro region’s economy will shrink in 2009.

$50 Average

Merrill reiterated a Nov. 26 forecast that oil futures traded in New York will average $50 a barrel next year. Prices “could find a trough” at the end of the first quarter and undergo a “modest recovery” in the second half as economies strengthen, according to today’s report.

“We expect strong cooperation to emerge” among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as prices fall below $50, Blanch said. OPEC, producer of more than 40 percent of the world’s crude, was still pumping about 1 million barrels a day more than its official target of 27.3 million barrels a day last month, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Producers in Canada may shutter almost 800,000 barrels a day if prices decline below $35 a barrel, Blanch added.

Merrill’s $50-a-barrel assessment for 2009 is the second- lowest among 32 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg, after a prediction of $43.13 by ANZ Banking Group Ltd. issued on Nov. 18.

 

To contact the reporter on this story:

Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net

 

 

Мировые цены на нефть в четверг значительно снизились. По итогам торгов 4 декабря 2008г. официальные цены нефтяных фьючерсов ближайшего месяца поставки составили: - в Лондоне на InterContinental Exchange Futures - IPE Brent Crude 42,28 (-3,16) долл./барр.; - в Нью-Йорке на New York Mercantile Exchange - Light, Sweet Crude Oil - 43,67 (-3,12) долл./барр.

Таким образом, цены на нефть вплотную приблизились к четырехлетнему минимуму – последний раз нефть стоила меньше 44 долл. за барр. в начале 2005г.

Между тем, как отмечают аналитики, это далеко не предел. По данным прогноза Merrill Lynch на 2009г., опубликованного в четверг, цены на "черное золото" достигнут своего минимума только в начале II квартала 2009г. И даже после этого цена за баррель сырой нефти в 2009г. закрепится на уровне 50 долл., прогнозирует Merrill Lynch.

Что касается России, аналитики Merrill Lynch указывают, что "правительства РФ и стран Персидского залива хотят и могут ограничить экономический спад". Отметим, что для этого России, возможно, придется вступить в Организацию стран-экспортеров нефти (ОПЕК), как предложил на днях глава картеля Шакиб Хелиль. Но, скорее всего, наша страна останется самостоятельным игроком, лишь упрочив сотрудничество как с ОПЕК, так и с мировыми потребителями черного золота.

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Ron Harui

 

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury 10-year notes fell as a technical indicator showed a seven-day rally that pushed yields to record lows was overdone.

The 14-day relative-strength index for the securities declined to 24.6 yesterday, below the level of 30 that signaled yields would probably rise.

“Treasuries have been overbought, with yields reaching expensive levels,” said Takashi Yamamoto, chief trader in Singapore at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp., part of Japan’s largest bank. “While we may see some unwinding of long positions, this is likely to be short-lived.” A long position is a bet on an asset price gaining.

The yield on the 10-year note climbed three basis points to 2.58 percent as of 10:24 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 3.75 percent security maturing in November 2018, declined 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 110 7/32. The yield reached 2.53 percent yesterday, the lowest level since 1954.

Two-year yields rose two basis points to 0.84 percent after dropping to 0.805 percent yesterday.

Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. shrank by 333,000 in November, the most since 1982 and the 11th month that companies have shed jobs, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The Labor Department will release the report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

 

To contact the reporters on this story:

Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net

 

 

 

 

 

2008.12.05 03:45:03   USD/JPY Likely To Test 90.00 In Near Term – JPM

2008.12.05 04:00:14   Japan Emperor To Resume Duties Friday Afternoon – Kyodo

2008.12.05 03:44:15   Japan Econ Min Yosano: Welcome ECB Rate Cut Decision

2008.12.05 03:40:46   China Shrs Open Dn, Led By Pft-Taking In Oil Cos

2008.12.05 03:40:50   USD/CNY At 6.8792; Down From Thursday's Close Of 6.8817

2008.12.05 03:35:41   USD/CNY Opens At 6.8800; Near Top End Of Daily Trading Band

2008.12.05 03:35:48   USD/CNY Can Move 0.5% Above Or Below Central Parity Rate

2008.12.05 02:42:41   Japan November 1-20 Trade Balance Y441.11 Billion Deficit

2008.12.05 02:35:18   Nikkei 225 Stock Average In Negative Territory

2008.12.05 02:07:21   CBO: $408 Bln Deficit For First 2 Months Of Fiscal 2009     

2008.12.05 02:00:13   USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Up on Japan Importer Buying

2008.12.05 02:00:33   Lead December JGB Futures Open Up At 139.55 Vs 139.42 Thu

2008.12.05 02:01:38   Nikkei 225 Stock Average Opens Up 0.6% At 7975.05       

2008.12.05 01:50:49   Japan Nov Foreign Reserves $1.002T; +$25.138B On Month

2008.12.05 01:48:59   Crude Tad Up; Shares To Remain Cue

2008.12.05 01:08:02   10-Yr Tsys Yld Likely Move To 2.25% By Early '09

2008.12.05 01:09:03   Worst Could Be Over In Equity Mkts - State Street

2008.12.05 01:20:39   USD To Stay Tepid Vs JPY, EUR; Poor Indicators

2008.12.05 01:45:52   Lead Nikkei Futures Open Down 95 Points At 7830 On SGX

2008.12.04 23:35:52   FOREX VIEW: Euro, Dollar Slow As Traders Await 2009

2008.12.04 23:38:43   US Stocks Slide As General Motors Tumbles; Retailers Gain

2008.12.04 23:45:19   Dow Jones REVISED CLOSING Averages: DJIA 8376.24 DN 215.45

2008.12.04 23:54:11   Ukraine's Yushchenko Sees Chance Of Coalition Groomed By Russia

2008.12.05 00:00:15   Key Interest Rates At 5 PM EST; 10-Yr Note Yld 2.560%   

2008.12.05 00:00:25   Bush On Autos: US Shouldn't Put Good Money After Bad –TV

2008.12.05 00:10:48   BIG PICTURE: Latest Housing Plan Is Met With Skepticism

2008.12.05 00:27:41   Private Economists Now Say Japan GDP Shrank 0.2% In 3Q-Nikkei

2008.12.05 00:55:56   USD/JPY Firmly Focused On 92.00 – RBC

2008.12.05 01:06:48   Nikkei May Fall; Support At 7703.04 – Analyst

 

 

By Stanley White

 

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar headed for a fifth weekly decline against the yen, its longest losing streak in four years, before a U.S. report that economists say will show the unemployment rate rose to the highest level since 1993.

The greenback was also poised for a second weekly loss versus the euro on speculation the jobs report will give the Federal Reserve more reason to cut interest rates. The euro fell against the yen this week, while the British pound declined versus the greenback. The European Central Bank made the biggest rate cut in its 10-year history yesterday and the Bank of England reduced its benchmark to the lowest level since 1951.

“The market is moving to a broadly weak trend for the dollar,” said Hideki Amikura, deputy general manager of foreign exchange at Nomura Trust and Banking Co., a unit of Japan’s largest brokerage. “Nonfarm payrolls numbers are likely to be ugly. This should pressure the dollar to trade lower.”

The dollar bought 92.51 yen as of 10:34 a.m. in Tokyo from 92.23 yen late yesterday in New York, on course for a 3.2 percent decline this week. The euro was at $1.2751 from $1.2777 yesterday and up from $1.2691 at the end of last week. The euro traded at 117.95 yen, down 2.7 percent from Nov. 28. The pound was at $1.4649, down 4.7 percent this week.

The dollar may fall to 88 yen this month, Amikura said.

Chinese Yuan

The Chinese yuan headed for a 0.7 percent weekly decline to 6.8800 per dollar, on speculation U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s calls for a stronger currency won’t stop China from weakening it to support exporters. Paulson is in Beijing for talks with Chinese officials.

U.S. payrolls shrank by 333,000 workers in November after a drop of 240,000 in the previous month, according to the median forecast of 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The jobless rate jumped to 6.8 percent, the highest level in 15 years, a separate survey showed. The Labor Department will release the report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

“Some are selling the dollar ahead of the payroll report,” said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. “You have a perfect storm building for the dollar.”

Home Foreclosures

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday urged the use of more taxpayer funds for new efforts to prevent home foreclosures, saying in a speech in Washington that the private sector is incapable of coping with the crisis on its own.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed yesterday 64 percent odds the Fed will lower its 1 percent target rate to 0.25 percent by its next meeting on Dec. 16, compared with a 52 percent chance on Dec. 3.

U.S. lawmakers expressed optimism yesterday that they may financially stabilize U.S. automakers by providing temporary funds until the next presidential administration.

General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC told Congress on Dec. 2 they need as much as $15 billion to survive until next month as a global recession crimps consumer spending and exports. Ford Motor Co. has requested a credit line of as much as $9 billion.

“The market’s attention will be drawn to nonfarm payrolls and hearings on a bailout of the U.S. auto sector,” Masafumi Yamamoto, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Japan at Royal Bank of Scotland in Tokyo and a former Bank of Japan currency trader, wrote in a research note today. “This may cause stocks to fall and place pressure on the yen to rise.”

The ECB lowered its main refinancing rate by 0.75 percentage point to 2.5 percent. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a reduction of half a percentage point.

The pound fell as much as 1.4 percent to 87.25 pence per euro yesterday, the weakest level since the 15-nation currency’s 1999 debut, after the BOE lowered its target lending rate by a full percentage point to 2 percent. The pound was last quoted at 87.02 pence per euro, on course for a 5.1 percent weekly decline.

 

To contact the reporters on this story:

Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net

 

 

By Christian Schmollinger

 

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is set for its biggest weekly decline since March 2003, trading near an almost four- year low, as the economic contraction and job losses in the U.S. cause a slump in fuel demand.

Oil is set for a 19 percent drop this week after the U.S. was declared in a recession on Dec. 1. Energy, wheat and copper led a plunge in commodities yesterday as the Standard & Poor’s GSCI raw materials index fell to the lowest since February 2005. A report today will probably show U.S. November payrolls dropped the most since the 2001 terrorist attacks. Equities plunged yesterday as oil stocks dropped on forecasts of $25 crude.

“The equities market will be looking at the jobs data and the fact that it will affect stocks means it will affect the energy market,” said Clarence Chu, a trader at options dealer Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. “People are looking at the economies in recession and they know oil demand will go down.”

Crude oil for January delivery was at $43.60 a barrel, down 15 cents at 9:25 a.m. Singapore time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, futures tumbled $3.12, or 6.7 percent, to $43.67 a barrel, the lowest settlement price since Jan. 5, 2005.

Oil prices have fallen 70 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11. Crude’s 19 percent weekly drop is the largest since a 24 percent decline during the week ending March 21, 2003.

The U.S. entered a recession in December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private, non-profit panel of economists that dates American business cycles, said on Dec. 1.

Copper Tumbles

The Labor Department will probably say today that payrolls in November dropped the most since the 2001 terrorist attacks, a Bloomberg news survey showed.

U.S. fuel demand during the four weeks ended Nov. 28 was down 6.2 percent from a year earlier, an Energy Department report showed Dec. 3.

The GSCI raw materials index has slumped 63 percent from its peak on July 3 as a credit crunch and global recession slash demand for energy and raw materials.

Copper tumbled 5.1 percent yesterday, bringing its drop this week to almost 10 percent and sending the price to its lowest in more than three years. Gold for immediate delivery was little changed today at $768.90 an ounce.

Brent crude oil for January settlement was at $42.13 a barrel, down 15 cents, on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract yesterday fell $3.16, or 7 percent, to $42.28 a barrel yesterday, the lowest settlement since Jan. 5, 2005.

 

To contact the reporter on this story:

Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.

 

 

By Lukanyo Mnyanda and Ye Xie

 

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England’s third interest- rate cut since the start of October is raising speculation that the pound’s 26 percent slide may be coming to an end.

Pacific Investment Management Co., which said as recently as September the pound was “overvalued,” and Millennium Asset Management have exited or cut bets the currency will weaken. The pound traded in a range of about $1.47 and $1.55 the past month, after dropping from $2 in July.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King cut the nation’s key rate to 2 percent yesterday, the lowest level since Winston Churchill was prime minister in 1951, to help bolster an economy on the brink of a recession. The rate is down from 5 percent as recently as Oct. 7.

 

Even with yesterday’s gains the pound is poised for its worst year since 1972, as a collapse in bank lending worldwide dried up credit to companies and consumers. It’s down 15 percent versus the euro.

Shrinking Economy

Gross domestic product shrank by 0.5 percent in the third quarter, the first drop in 16 years. The economy may contract 1.1 percent next year, the most since 1991, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Nov. 25. U.K. home values declined 2.6 percent in November, the biggest drop since 1992, and 16.1 percent from a year earlier, HBOS Plc, Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, said this week.

Pound bulls have history on their side. Since reaching a 26-year high of $2.1161 in November 2007, the currency has dropped 30 percent. In the past two decades, the five major declines in the pound averaged about 22 percent from peak to trough against the dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“We are not selling the pound because the risk-reward is not good,” said Richard Benson, who oversees $14 billion of currency funds at Millennium in London. Benson was betting against the pound for a period of six months ending in September.

‘More to Go’

A rebound in the pound may not be imminent as investors bet the central bank will cut rates further to revive the economy, Europe’s second-largest. Policy makers will reduce the benchmark rate to 1.5 percent by the end of 2009, according to the median forecast of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

“There’s still a lot more to go,” said Ian Stannard, a foreign-exchange strategist in London at BNP Paribas SA, the most accurate forecaster in a 2007 Bloomberg survey “There’ll be more weakness.” The pound will drop 16 percent to $1.24 by the end of March, according to Stannard.

Traders have amassed a net 40,244 futures contracts betting on a pound decline, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington showed on Nov. 25. That’s about the most since the last week of September, when they had 47,771 wagers. The currency declined 18 percent since then.

Less Bearish

Investors are turning less bearish on the pound, according to a Merrill Lynch & Co. survey of investors published Nov. 20.

An index tracking short positions against the pound among global debt and currency managers was at 45 in November, compared with 43 in October and 35 in September. A reading below 50 indicates investors are betting the currency will drop.

“The U.K. is addressing its problems forcefully and I tend to be leaning toward the pound’s recovery a bit more,” said Eric Busay, a money manager in Sacramento at the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest U.S. public pension, with $213.5 billion in assets under management. “Deepening recession on the global basis will affect everyone.”

Bank of America Corp., based in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a report to clients this week that the pound will rise to $1.67 by the end of March and to 86 pence per euro, saying the “bad news has been priced in” for the U.K. currency.

 

To contact the reporters on this story:

Lukanyo Mnyanda in London at lmnyanda@bloomberg.net;

Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net.