23 апреля 2011 Архив
Греческий Премьер Папандреу:"Рейтинговые агенства душат Грецию"
Премьер Греции на домашней странице правительства страны обрушился с резкой критикой на рейтинговые агенства, которые по его словам наносят непоправимый вред экономике страны и её народу.Напомним, что
«Standard & Poor's», «Fitch» un «Moody's» последовательно понижали кредитный рейтинг страны, доведя его до практически мусорного уровня, что очень эффективно отрезало Грецию от международного долгосрочного денежно-кредитного рынка.Получается, что теперь рейтинговые агенства определяют дальнейшую судьбу народа Греции, а не её парламент и правительство, которые избираются самим народом, говорит Папандреу.
Правительство страны раздражено подобным отношением, но тем не менее продолжит «бороться за демократию и национальное достоинство во время тяжёлого кризиса». http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/22/greek-prime-minister-papandreou-ratings_n_852451.html
ЦБ КИТАЯ ПОВЫСИТ ПРОЦЕНТНЫЕ СТАВКИ ВО 2 КВАРТАЛЕ И ДОПУСТИТ БЫСТРОЕ УКРЕПЛЕНИЕ ЮАНЯ
Такой прогноз содержится в аналитическом отчете от Agricultural Bank of China, одного из крупнейших госбанков страны.По мнению стратегов банка, Центробанк Китая повысит процентные ставки до конца июня и позволит юаню укрепиться для того, чтобы сдерживать рост инфляции.По прогнозам все того же Agricultural Bank of China, рост потребительских цен в стране в июне может превысить 6%.Курс юаня по прогнозам от Agricultural Bank of China до конца июня вырастит до 6.46, то есть за первую половину 2011 года на 2.5%.В дальнейшем юань будет расти акивнее, по мере дальнейшего роста инфляции в Китае
BEIJING, April 22 (Reuters) — China will increase benchmark interest rates once more before the end of June and allow faster appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, the Agricultural Bank of China (Agbank) forecast in a research note on Friday. The state bank's strategic planning unit said in the note that consumer inflation may accelerate further to 6.0 percent in June from the 32-month-high of 5.4 percent in March.
«As CPI in the second quarter will be higher than in the first quarter, it is still necessary for China to increase interest rates,» according to the note co-authored by the bank's economists. China has increased benchmark interest rates four times since last October, each by 0.25 percentage point. The People's Bank of China has also increased the deposit reserve ratio four times in 2011, raising the ratio to an all-time high of 20.5 percent.
Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, said last week that China's monetary policy tightening would last for a while and said there was no upper limit for the deposit reserve ratio. In the research note, Agbank said China's central bank may increase the required reserve ratio further in the coming two months. But AgBank said a ratio of more than 23 percent would have «seriously negative impacts» on commercial banks' operations.
It did not elaborate. It added that the dollar/yuan rate may reach 6.46 by the end of June, implying a 2.5 percent appreciation in the first half. «As price rises accelerate and imported inflation pressure remains large, a faster yuan appreciation will help China to ease inflationary pressure,» the bank's economists said.
The bank's view was in line with some overseas investment banks. Yao Wei, an economist at Societe Generale, said on Friday that inflation could surge to 6 percent in June, driven by rising material costs and excessive liquidity. «I think the battle against excessive liquidity is far from over,» Yao told a media briefing in Beijing. «The central bank would stick to its tightening stance in coming quarters.» She expected the central bank to raise interest rates another two times in the remainder of the year and predicted there were three more reserve requirement hikes in the pipeline.
СПРОС НА ТОПЛИВО В КИТАЕ ПО ПРОГНОЗАМ NATIONAL ENERGY ADMINISTRATION
По прогнозам National Energy Administration, пик спроса на топливо в Китае будет достигнут в 1 квартале текущего года, а затем стабилизируется.National Energy Administration прогнозирует, что спрос на топливо в 1 квартале будет на 13 выше чем в том же периоде прошлого года, но затем постепенно снизится до 9% в первом полугодии и по итогам всего 2011 года будет на 8% выше показателей 2010 года.В тонажном выражении спрос составит в 1 квартале 65 миллионов тонн, и достигнет 265 миллионов тонн за весь 2011 год.Учитывая, что спрос на автомобили растет, а в предверии начала летнего сезона отпусков, количество автопоездок возрастет, спрос на бензин и дизельное топливо будет высоким.National Energy Administration пока не может точно предсказать, будет ли оказывать влияние на спрос высокие цены на топливо.
BEIJING, April 22 (Reuters) — China's demand for its three main refined fuels — diesel, gasoline and kerosene — will plateau at first quarter levels for the rest of 2011, China's National Energy Administration (NEA) said on Friday.
It predicted year-on-year growth in demand for the fuels would slow from 13 percent in the first quarter to 9 percent in the first half of the year and 8 percent in 2011 as a whole. But those growth rates mask a very stable absolute volume.
The amount of fuel consumed is expected to barely budge: from 65 million tonnes in the first quarter, it will flatline to 130 million tonnes in the first half and inch higher to reach 265 million tonnes for the full year.
It did not give a breakdown of the three fuels, but said gasoline consumption would pick up as more car buyers hit the road in China's second- and third-tier cities.
«Demand for cars is expected to be close to 20 million vehicles in 2011, 11 percent more than last year,» the NEA said in a statement. «There are already more than 90 million civilian-owned vehicles, and once the weather gets warmer more people will be driving, gasoline demand will keep growing quite quickly.» Energy analysts are watching to see if soaring crude oil prices could erode demand for oil around the world.
China is thought to be more insulated from oil prices than many countries because most energy-using sectors get state support and the state controls fuel prices. Although the government wants pump prices to become a truer reflection of crude oil costs, which would liberalise the market and discourage wasteful consumption, it is wary of making the transition too quickly.
That, coupled with an exuberant appetite for cars and the continued growth expected from China's economy, may lessen the impact of rising oil prices on China. China was the single biggest factor in world oil demand growth last year, so if motorists do eventually blanch at the cost of a fill-up and return to using buses and bicycles, the impact could be felt worldwide. International Energy Agency chief Nobuo Tanaka told Reuters earlier this week that he believed that was already happening. «The government has been deregulating the gasoline prices each month and certainly, that has eaten up some demand growth,» he said.
POWER SHORTAGES While fuel demand growth slows, the NEA said power demand would grow faster than it previously thought. With spreading shortages in parts of the country after solid demand growth in the first quarter, China risks experiencing one of its frequent summer electricity crises. «Power supplies are likely to tighten up in north, east, central and south China regions in summer when power loads pick up quickly,» the NEA said in a statement.
The agency forecasts electricity consumption would grow about 11 percent year-on-year to 2.2 trillion kWh in the first half of 2011, with full-year consumption of 4.61-4.69 trillion kWh, a growth rate of 10-12 percent. That is less than 14.6 percent growth in 2010, but higher than a 2011 forecast that the NEA made in January, which envisaged consumption rising around 9 percent to 4.5 trillion kWh this year. It did not elaborate on the revision. China's overall power consumption in March increased 13.4 percent from a year earlier and gained 12.7 percent on year in the first quarter, as pent-up demand emerged after a power crackdown late last year.
Power shortages ran as high as 27.16 GW in January in areas serviced by the State Grid Corp of China, which operates the electricity grid in 26 of China's 31 regions, but fell to around 3 GW in February and March, eased by the Lunar New Year holiday and rising temperatures. The central regions of Hunan, Jiangxi and Chongqing have introduced power use curbs since March and Hubei is also likely to impose restrictions, with low coal stocks at power plants and low water levels for hydropower generation.Shanghai and several eastern and central provinces — Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Anhui, Henan and Jiangxi — may face up to more than 20 GW of power shortages during the summer, according to forecasts by local grid operators.
CLEANER ENERGY The agency also scaled down its natural gas output forecast for 2011 to 104 billion cubic metres from its previous estimate of 110 bcm, without any explanation. China is counting on rising consumption of gas to reduce its over-reliance on carbon-intensive coal. It aims to boost gas consumption to nearly 10 percent of total energy use by 2020 from less than 4 percent currently. A branch of the second West-to-East gas pipeline, which is the longest in China and runs from Central Asia to China's eastern and southern seaboards, will be ready to supply Hong Kong before the year end, the NEA said. China will push forward with preliminary work for a third West-to-East gas pipeline, it said. Construction of the third, fourth and fifth West-to-East gas pipelines will begin in the next five years, an official with the administration said on Thursday.
The NEA said China added 2.5 GW of wind power generating capacity in the first quarter and total on-grid capacity had now reached 33.94 GW. Wind is close to passing nuclear as a source of power generation in China, which has seen a massive expansion of the clean technology in the past three years.
БЫСТРЫЙ РОСТ ЮАНЯ ОПАСЕН.ГОВОРИТ ЧИНОВНИК ИЗ АДМИНСТРАЦИИ ВАЛЮТНОГО РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЯ КНР
Об этом говорит глава департамента международных расчетов State Administration of Foreign Exchange товарищ Guan Tao.В своей статье, опубликованной на страницах китайского издания «China Finance» (печатный орган PBOC) товарищ Guan высказывает обеспокоенность тем, что наращивание валютных резервов со стороны Китая, вызвает рост инфляционного давление.С этой точки зрения Центробанку надо начать ограничивать наращивание ЗВР, но тем не менее необходимы дополнительные шаги в борьбе с инфляцией, включая гибкость обменного курса юаня, постепенное открытие доступа к внутреннему рынку капитала.Товарищ Guan не согласен с утверждениями, что курс юаня должен быстро укрепляться, так как постепенно сокращение платежного баланса, должно привести к нормализации обменного курса и тормозить усиление курса юаня.
BEIJING, April 22 (Reuters) — China must take steps to rein in foreign exchange reserves to help curb inflation, including by making the yuan more flexible and gradually opening its capital account, a senior foreign exchange official said in published remarks. But Guan Tao, head of the international payment department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, cautioned against any sharp currency rises. «If we cannot slow the rise in foreign exchange reserves, our work to control consumer prices and property prices will be greatly undermined,» Guan wrote in the latest edition of China Finance. «Even if the property prices can be curbed, we cannot stop liquidity from shifting to other markets, brewing other forms of asset bubbles,» he added. China's foreign exchange reserves swelled by nearly $200 billion in the first quarter to more than $3 trillion, indicating hefty capital inflows given that China had a $1.02 billion trade deficit during the first three months
The persistent increase in the foreign exchange reserves has been fuelling inflationary pressures in China, Guan said. The rapid reserve build-up means the People's Bank of China keeps pumping out large amounts of yuan liquidity into the economy — the root course of domestic inflation — as the central bank has to buy most incoming dollars to slow the yuan's gains. Guan said that Beijing's bid to boost the yuan's international status by expanding the currency's use in trade may lead to more money inflows at the initial stage. China is pressing ahead with attempts to reduce its reliance on dollars in international trade.
But the yuan is used more often to pay for China's imports than its exports, so the central bank ends up accumulating even more foreign reserves — mostly dollars — because few trade partners now have enough yuan on hand to pay for Chinese goods. This factor added roughly $40 billion to foreign exchange purchases in the first quarter, according to estimates by Mark Williams, China economist at Capital Economics. Since October, China's central bank has raised benchmark interest rates four times and tightened lenders' reserve requirements seven times as it seeks to rein in loan growth and keep a lid on inflation.
Greater yuan flexibility will help rebalance the economy and curb bets on one-way yuan appreciation, Guan said. But he saw no basis for any sharp yuan appreciation, given that China's current account surplus has been narrowing. «The yuan is getting closer to its equilibrium level as China's current account surplus is falling and capital outflows are rising,» Guan said. The yuan has gained 25 percent against the dollar since the 2.1 percent landmark revaluation in July 2005. Chinese officials have repeatedly ruled out another one-off revaluation despite foreign pressures. Guan also repeated the official stance that Beijing would gradually open its capital account and expand more channels to facilitate capital outflows.
ГРЕЧЕСКИЕ ГАЗЕТЫ СНОВА СООБЩАЮТ О НЕИЗБЕЖНОЙ РЕСТРУКТУРИЗАЦИИ ДОЛГОВ СТРАНЫ.НА ЭТОТ РАЗ ИДЕЯ В ПРОДЛЕНИИ СРОКА ПОГАШЕНИЙ БУМАГ
Сразу две греческие газеты сообщают о якобы уже принятом решении о продлении сроков обращения долговых бумаг правительства, чтобы обеспечить хотя бы возможности для обслуживания.Источники информации якобы находятся в Минфине Греции.
ATHENS, April 22 (Reuters) — Greece is considering extending maturities on its sovereign debt to make it sustainable, two national newspapers said on Friday, joining a flurry of recent press reports outlining options for a possible restructuring. Greek and EU officials have steadfastly denied a debt restructuring is planned, in the face of mounting evidence that markets are factoring one in.
A spokeswoman for the finance ministry was not immediately available for comment on Friday's reports. The country's top-selling newspaper Ta Nea said without citing a source that the government was mulling «a velvet restructuring» that would include extending outstanding debt and a voluntary agreement with lenders to modify repayment terms. Such a step would have to be taken before 2012, the newspaper said, but not before the expiry of the term of ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet, who steps down at the end of October. The Greek official in charge of the informal debt extention talks «seems to be» Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou and a technical team of advisors, the newspaper said without elaborating with whom they were holding talks. Papaconstantinou on Wednesday reiterated that a debt extension or other restructuring was out of the question, adding that the country was still planning to return to the bond market by early 2012. Papaconstantinou's statement came after a report in German daily Die Welt quoted an unnamed Greek minister as saying that restructuring was just a question of time.
The Greek government spokesman dismissed the report. According to another report on Friday in Greek newspaper Isotimia, the government might seek to extend the maturities of its outstanding debt by an average of five years. This would happen after an agreement with its lenders, the newspaper said, citing government sources it did not name. No final decision to propose such a solution has been taken and discussions were still at an informal level, Isotimia said. Greece has been shut out of financial markets in the wake of its debt crisis last year. Papaconstantinou said on Wednesday he considered Greece's debt — expected to hit about 160 percent of GDP in 2012 — «totally sustainable» and that restructuring was not an option. But given the sheer size of the country's debt set against a continuing economic slump, markets are increasingly factoring in a restructuring. Some 46 of 55 economists polled by Reuters in a survey published on Wednesday said they expected Greece would have to restructure its debt in the next two years, with a maturity extension the most likely option.
Also on Wednesday, the cost of insuring Greek five-year government debt hit a record highs of 1,275 basis points, meaning it cost 1.275 million euros to insure 10 million euros of debt — more than Iceland's premium in 2008 when its financial system imploded. Most European markets were closed on Friday for the Easter holiday.
ИНДЕКС АЗИАТСКИХ ВАЛЮТ ОБНОВИЛ МАКСИМУМ С 1997 ГОДА
Премьер Греции на домашней странице правительства страны обрушился с резкой критикой на рейтинговые агенства, которые по его словам наносят непоправимый вред экономике страны и её народу.Напомним, что
«Standard & Poor's», «Fitch» un «Moody's» последовательно понижали кредитный рейтинг страны, доведя его до практически мусорного уровня, что очень эффективно отрезало Грецию от международного долгосрочного денежно-кредитного рынка.Получается, что теперь рейтинговые агенства определяют дальнейшую судьбу народа Греции, а не её парламент и правительство, которые избираются самим народом, говорит Папандреу.
Правительство страны раздражено подобным отношением, но тем не менее продолжит «бороться за демократию и национальное достоинство во время тяжёлого кризиса». http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/22/greek-prime-minister-papandreou-ratings_n_852451.html
ЦБ КИТАЯ ПОВЫСИТ ПРОЦЕНТНЫЕ СТАВКИ ВО 2 КВАРТАЛЕ И ДОПУСТИТ БЫСТРОЕ УКРЕПЛЕНИЕ ЮАНЯ
Такой прогноз содержится в аналитическом отчете от Agricultural Bank of China, одного из крупнейших госбанков страны.По мнению стратегов банка, Центробанк Китая повысит процентные ставки до конца июня и позволит юаню укрепиться для того, чтобы сдерживать рост инфляции.По прогнозам все того же Agricultural Bank of China, рост потребительских цен в стране в июне может превысить 6%.Курс юаня по прогнозам от Agricultural Bank of China до конца июня вырастит до 6.46, то есть за первую половину 2011 года на 2.5%.В дальнейшем юань будет расти акивнее, по мере дальнейшего роста инфляции в Китае
BEIJING, April 22 (Reuters) — China will increase benchmark interest rates once more before the end of June and allow faster appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, the Agricultural Bank of China (Agbank) forecast in a research note on Friday. The state bank's strategic planning unit said in the note that consumer inflation may accelerate further to 6.0 percent in June from the 32-month-high of 5.4 percent in March.
«As CPI in the second quarter will be higher than in the first quarter, it is still necessary for China to increase interest rates,» according to the note co-authored by the bank's economists. China has increased benchmark interest rates four times since last October, each by 0.25 percentage point. The People's Bank of China has also increased the deposit reserve ratio four times in 2011, raising the ratio to an all-time high of 20.5 percent.
Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, said last week that China's monetary policy tightening would last for a while and said there was no upper limit for the deposit reserve ratio. In the research note, Agbank said China's central bank may increase the required reserve ratio further in the coming two months. But AgBank said a ratio of more than 23 percent would have «seriously negative impacts» on commercial banks' operations.
It did not elaborate. It added that the dollar/yuan rate may reach 6.46 by the end of June, implying a 2.5 percent appreciation in the first half. «As price rises accelerate and imported inflation pressure remains large, a faster yuan appreciation will help China to ease inflationary pressure,» the bank's economists said.
The bank's view was in line with some overseas investment banks. Yao Wei, an economist at Societe Generale, said on Friday that inflation could surge to 6 percent in June, driven by rising material costs and excessive liquidity. «I think the battle against excessive liquidity is far from over,» Yao told a media briefing in Beijing. «The central bank would stick to its tightening stance in coming quarters.» She expected the central bank to raise interest rates another two times in the remainder of the year and predicted there were three more reserve requirement hikes in the pipeline.
СПРОС НА ТОПЛИВО В КИТАЕ ПО ПРОГНОЗАМ NATIONAL ENERGY ADMINISTRATION
По прогнозам National Energy Administration, пик спроса на топливо в Китае будет достигнут в 1 квартале текущего года, а затем стабилизируется.National Energy Administration прогнозирует, что спрос на топливо в 1 квартале будет на 13 выше чем в том же периоде прошлого года, но затем постепенно снизится до 9% в первом полугодии и по итогам всего 2011 года будет на 8% выше показателей 2010 года.В тонажном выражении спрос составит в 1 квартале 65 миллионов тонн, и достигнет 265 миллионов тонн за весь 2011 год.Учитывая, что спрос на автомобили растет, а в предверии начала летнего сезона отпусков, количество автопоездок возрастет, спрос на бензин и дизельное топливо будет высоким.National Energy Administration пока не может точно предсказать, будет ли оказывать влияние на спрос высокие цены на топливо.
BEIJING, April 22 (Reuters) — China's demand for its three main refined fuels — diesel, gasoline and kerosene — will plateau at first quarter levels for the rest of 2011, China's National Energy Administration (NEA) said on Friday.
It predicted year-on-year growth in demand for the fuels would slow from 13 percent in the first quarter to 9 percent in the first half of the year and 8 percent in 2011 as a whole. But those growth rates mask a very stable absolute volume.
The amount of fuel consumed is expected to barely budge: from 65 million tonnes in the first quarter, it will flatline to 130 million tonnes in the first half and inch higher to reach 265 million tonnes for the full year.
It did not give a breakdown of the three fuels, but said gasoline consumption would pick up as more car buyers hit the road in China's second- and third-tier cities.
«Demand for cars is expected to be close to 20 million vehicles in 2011, 11 percent more than last year,» the NEA said in a statement. «There are already more than 90 million civilian-owned vehicles, and once the weather gets warmer more people will be driving, gasoline demand will keep growing quite quickly.» Energy analysts are watching to see if soaring crude oil prices could erode demand for oil around the world.
China is thought to be more insulated from oil prices than many countries because most energy-using sectors get state support and the state controls fuel prices. Although the government wants pump prices to become a truer reflection of crude oil costs, which would liberalise the market and discourage wasteful consumption, it is wary of making the transition too quickly.
That, coupled with an exuberant appetite for cars and the continued growth expected from China's economy, may lessen the impact of rising oil prices on China. China was the single biggest factor in world oil demand growth last year, so if motorists do eventually blanch at the cost of a fill-up and return to using buses and bicycles, the impact could be felt worldwide. International Energy Agency chief Nobuo Tanaka told Reuters earlier this week that he believed that was already happening. «The government has been deregulating the gasoline prices each month and certainly, that has eaten up some demand growth,» he said.
POWER SHORTAGES While fuel demand growth slows, the NEA said power demand would grow faster than it previously thought. With spreading shortages in parts of the country after solid demand growth in the first quarter, China risks experiencing one of its frequent summer electricity crises. «Power supplies are likely to tighten up in north, east, central and south China regions in summer when power loads pick up quickly,» the NEA said in a statement.
The agency forecasts electricity consumption would grow about 11 percent year-on-year to 2.2 trillion kWh in the first half of 2011, with full-year consumption of 4.61-4.69 trillion kWh, a growth rate of 10-12 percent. That is less than 14.6 percent growth in 2010, but higher than a 2011 forecast that the NEA made in January, which envisaged consumption rising around 9 percent to 4.5 trillion kWh this year. It did not elaborate on the revision. China's overall power consumption in March increased 13.4 percent from a year earlier and gained 12.7 percent on year in the first quarter, as pent-up demand emerged after a power crackdown late last year.
Power shortages ran as high as 27.16 GW in January in areas serviced by the State Grid Corp of China, which operates the electricity grid in 26 of China's 31 regions, but fell to around 3 GW in February and March, eased by the Lunar New Year holiday and rising temperatures. The central regions of Hunan, Jiangxi and Chongqing have introduced power use curbs since March and Hubei is also likely to impose restrictions, with low coal stocks at power plants and low water levels for hydropower generation.Shanghai and several eastern and central provinces — Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Anhui, Henan and Jiangxi — may face up to more than 20 GW of power shortages during the summer, according to forecasts by local grid operators.
CLEANER ENERGY The agency also scaled down its natural gas output forecast for 2011 to 104 billion cubic metres from its previous estimate of 110 bcm, without any explanation. China is counting on rising consumption of gas to reduce its over-reliance on carbon-intensive coal. It aims to boost gas consumption to nearly 10 percent of total energy use by 2020 from less than 4 percent currently. A branch of the second West-to-East gas pipeline, which is the longest in China and runs from Central Asia to China's eastern and southern seaboards, will be ready to supply Hong Kong before the year end, the NEA said. China will push forward with preliminary work for a third West-to-East gas pipeline, it said. Construction of the third, fourth and fifth West-to-East gas pipelines will begin in the next five years, an official with the administration said on Thursday.
The NEA said China added 2.5 GW of wind power generating capacity in the first quarter and total on-grid capacity had now reached 33.94 GW. Wind is close to passing nuclear as a source of power generation in China, which has seen a massive expansion of the clean technology in the past three years.
БЫСТРЫЙ РОСТ ЮАНЯ ОПАСЕН.ГОВОРИТ ЧИНОВНИК ИЗ АДМИНСТРАЦИИ ВАЛЮТНОГО РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЯ КНР
Об этом говорит глава департамента международных расчетов State Administration of Foreign Exchange товарищ Guan Tao.В своей статье, опубликованной на страницах китайского издания «China Finance» (печатный орган PBOC) товарищ Guan высказывает обеспокоенность тем, что наращивание валютных резервов со стороны Китая, вызвает рост инфляционного давление.С этой точки зрения Центробанку надо начать ограничивать наращивание ЗВР, но тем не менее необходимы дополнительные шаги в борьбе с инфляцией, включая гибкость обменного курса юаня, постепенное открытие доступа к внутреннему рынку капитала.Товарищ Guan не согласен с утверждениями, что курс юаня должен быстро укрепляться, так как постепенно сокращение платежного баланса, должно привести к нормализации обменного курса и тормозить усиление курса юаня.
BEIJING, April 22 (Reuters) — China must take steps to rein in foreign exchange reserves to help curb inflation, including by making the yuan more flexible and gradually opening its capital account, a senior foreign exchange official said in published remarks. But Guan Tao, head of the international payment department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, cautioned against any sharp currency rises. «If we cannot slow the rise in foreign exchange reserves, our work to control consumer prices and property prices will be greatly undermined,» Guan wrote in the latest edition of China Finance. «Even if the property prices can be curbed, we cannot stop liquidity from shifting to other markets, brewing other forms of asset bubbles,» he added. China's foreign exchange reserves swelled by nearly $200 billion in the first quarter to more than $3 trillion, indicating hefty capital inflows given that China had a $1.02 billion trade deficit during the first three months
The persistent increase in the foreign exchange reserves has been fuelling inflationary pressures in China, Guan said. The rapid reserve build-up means the People's Bank of China keeps pumping out large amounts of yuan liquidity into the economy — the root course of domestic inflation — as the central bank has to buy most incoming dollars to slow the yuan's gains. Guan said that Beijing's bid to boost the yuan's international status by expanding the currency's use in trade may lead to more money inflows at the initial stage. China is pressing ahead with attempts to reduce its reliance on dollars in international trade.
But the yuan is used more often to pay for China's imports than its exports, so the central bank ends up accumulating even more foreign reserves — mostly dollars — because few trade partners now have enough yuan on hand to pay for Chinese goods. This factor added roughly $40 billion to foreign exchange purchases in the first quarter, according to estimates by Mark Williams, China economist at Capital Economics. Since October, China's central bank has raised benchmark interest rates four times and tightened lenders' reserve requirements seven times as it seeks to rein in loan growth and keep a lid on inflation.
Greater yuan flexibility will help rebalance the economy and curb bets on one-way yuan appreciation, Guan said. But he saw no basis for any sharp yuan appreciation, given that China's current account surplus has been narrowing. «The yuan is getting closer to its equilibrium level as China's current account surplus is falling and capital outflows are rising,» Guan said. The yuan has gained 25 percent against the dollar since the 2.1 percent landmark revaluation in July 2005. Chinese officials have repeatedly ruled out another one-off revaluation despite foreign pressures. Guan also repeated the official stance that Beijing would gradually open its capital account and expand more channels to facilitate capital outflows.
ГРЕЧЕСКИЕ ГАЗЕТЫ СНОВА СООБЩАЮТ О НЕИЗБЕЖНОЙ РЕСТРУКТУРИЗАЦИИ ДОЛГОВ СТРАНЫ.НА ЭТОТ РАЗ ИДЕЯ В ПРОДЛЕНИИ СРОКА ПОГАШЕНИЙ БУМАГ
Сразу две греческие газеты сообщают о якобы уже принятом решении о продлении сроков обращения долговых бумаг правительства, чтобы обеспечить хотя бы возможности для обслуживания.Источники информации якобы находятся в Минфине Греции.
ATHENS, April 22 (Reuters) — Greece is considering extending maturities on its sovereign debt to make it sustainable, two national newspapers said on Friday, joining a flurry of recent press reports outlining options for a possible restructuring. Greek and EU officials have steadfastly denied a debt restructuring is planned, in the face of mounting evidence that markets are factoring one in.
A spokeswoman for the finance ministry was not immediately available for comment on Friday's reports. The country's top-selling newspaper Ta Nea said without citing a source that the government was mulling «a velvet restructuring» that would include extending outstanding debt and a voluntary agreement with lenders to modify repayment terms. Such a step would have to be taken before 2012, the newspaper said, but not before the expiry of the term of ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet, who steps down at the end of October. The Greek official in charge of the informal debt extention talks «seems to be» Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou and a technical team of advisors, the newspaper said without elaborating with whom they were holding talks. Papaconstantinou on Wednesday reiterated that a debt extension or other restructuring was out of the question, adding that the country was still planning to return to the bond market by early 2012. Papaconstantinou's statement came after a report in German daily Die Welt quoted an unnamed Greek minister as saying that restructuring was just a question of time.
The Greek government spokesman dismissed the report. According to another report on Friday in Greek newspaper Isotimia, the government might seek to extend the maturities of its outstanding debt by an average of five years. This would happen after an agreement with its lenders, the newspaper said, citing government sources it did not name. No final decision to propose such a solution has been taken and discussions were still at an informal level, Isotimia said. Greece has been shut out of financial markets in the wake of its debt crisis last year. Papaconstantinou said on Wednesday he considered Greece's debt — expected to hit about 160 percent of GDP in 2012 — «totally sustainable» and that restructuring was not an option. But given the sheer size of the country's debt set against a continuing economic slump, markets are increasingly factoring in a restructuring. Some 46 of 55 economists polled by Reuters in a survey published on Wednesday said they expected Greece would have to restructure its debt in the next two years, with a maturity extension the most likely option.
Also on Wednesday, the cost of insuring Greek five-year government debt hit a record highs of 1,275 basis points, meaning it cost 1.275 million euros to insure 10 million euros of debt — more than Iceland's premium in 2008 when its financial system imploded. Most European markets were closed on Friday for the Easter holiday.
ИНДЕКС АЗИАТСКИХ ВАЛЮТ ОБНОВИЛ МАКСИМУМ С 1997 ГОДА
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