14 апреля 2011 Архив Бегларян Григорий
Увеличение общего размера «плохих» долгов в китайских банках до 30% «непостижимо», поскольку такой уровень непогашаемых займов «быстрее всего негативно повлияет» на суверенный рейтинг КНР, – сообщил сегодня Эндрю Коллхаун (Andrew Colquhoun), Глава Азиатско-Тихоокеанского филиала Агентства Fitch. – «Существуют риски, что рост проблем качества активов в банковской системе может вызвать более масштабную потерю доверия как внутри страны, так и на международном уровне, что скажется на фин. стабильности Китая», – заявил он в Гонконге на сегодняшней конференции инвесторов. Вчера Агентство Fitch понизило прогноз по долгосрочному рейтингу дефолта эмитента в нац. валюте для Китая со стабильного до негативного.
В заявлении Агентства сообщалось, что «существует высокая вероятность значительного ухудшения качества активов» в китайской банковской системе в течение трех последующих лет, в частности, финансирования муниципальных программ и кредитования под залог имущества. Дефолтный рейтинг эмитента был понижен до отметки АА-. Также в отчете Агентства говорилось, несмотря на то, что поскольку к концу 2010 года общий процент непогашемых займов в банковской системе Китая достиг 1,1%, более строгая классификация займов органам местного самоуправления показала результат около 6%. В то же время, рост части «плохих займов» с 15 до 30% «может потребовать увеличения роста ВВП с 10% до 30 соответственно, для поддержания стабильности системы», – заявляет рейтинговое агентство.
Кризис банковской системы «является именно тем препятствием, не дающим возможности государству покрыть разницу 30%-ным ростом ВВП и считать проблему исчерпанной», – сказал Коллхаун. – «Все только-только начало с трудом налаживаться в этом мире». Китай столкнулся с 60%-ной вероятностью кризиса банковской системы к средине 2013 года после рекордных размеров предоставления займов и роста цен на недвижимость, – заявил 4 марта один из руководителей Агентства Fitch Ричард Фокс (Richard Fox). «На сегодня мы имеем банковскую систему огромных размеров, продолжающую расти стремительными темпами, и что тревожит больше всего – рост происходит в первую очередь в проблемных секторах», – заявляет Чарлен Чжу (Charlene Chu), Руководитель Отдела финансовых рынков Агентства Fitch. В самом конце 2010 года около 12% всех займов, выданных банковской системой, приходились на финансирование программ развития муниципалитетов, – говорит Чжу. – «Из этих 12% около четверти – это займы с покрытием наличностью меньше, чем 70%».
April 13 (Bloomberg) — An increase in Chinese banks’ total bad debt ratio to 30 percent is “not inconceivable” and that level of non-performing loans would “likely be negative” for China’s sovereign ratings, Andrew Colquhoun, the head of Fitch Ratings’ Asia-Pacific sovereign debt unit, said today. “There’s a risk that the emergence of asset quality problems in the banking system could lead to a broader loss of confidence either domestically, or less importantly, externally in China’s financial stability,” Hong Kong-based Colquhoun said on a conference call with investors and reporters today. Fitch yesterday lowered the outlook on China’s long-term local-currency issuer default rating to negative from stable.
The company said it sees a “high likelihood of a significant deterioration in asset quality” in China’s banking system in the next three years, with local government financing vehicles and property-related lending the primary areas of concern. Fitch yesterday affirmed the long-term local currency issuer default rating at AA-. While Chinese banks’ total non-performing loan ratio was 1.1 percent at the end of 2010, a more conservative classification of lending to local government financing vehicles would already take the figure closer to 6 percent, Fitch said in its report. A rise in the total bad debt ratio to 15 to 30 percent “could necessitate upwards of 10 percent to 30 percent of GDP in support for the system,” according to the report.
Banking Crisis “What we can’t do is take the approach of saying the sovereign writes a check for 30 percent of GDP and that’s the problem solved,” Colquhoun said. “Things rarely work out that smoothly in the real world.” China faces a 60 percent risk of a banking crisis by mid-2013 in the aftermath of record lending and surging property prices, according to a Fitch Ratings gauge, Richard Fox, a London-based senior director, said in a March 4 interview. “What we have is a very big banking system that is growing very rapidly with much of that growth going into questionable sectors,” Charlene Chu, senior director of financial institutions at Fitch, said on today’s conference call. In late 2010 about 12 percent of total loans outstanding in the banking system were to local government financing vehicles, Chu said. “Of that 12 percent, about one fourth consisted of loans with less than 70 percent cashflow coverage.”
МИНИСТР ФИНАНСОВ ГЕРМАНИИ SCHAEUBLE ГОВОРИТ:ИСКЛЮЧАТЬ РЕСТРУКТУРИЗАЦИЮ ДОЛГОВ ГРЕЦИИ,НЕЛЬЗЯ
Об этом немецкий министр заявил в интервью газете «Die Welt».По его словам, в июне (когда будет проведена «инспекция» греческой экономики со стороны МВФ и Еврокомиссии) и будет понятно, сможет ли Греция выдерживать столь большую долговую нагрузку.
22:10 13Apr11 RTRS-UPDATE 1-Germany acknowledges Greece may need debt restructure * Schaeuble: 'something must be done' if debt unsustainable By Noah Barkin BERLIN, April 13 (Reuters) — Germany acknowledged for the first time on Wednesday that Greece may need to restructure its debt but said such a step could only be pursued before 2013 if it were done on a voluntary basis. In an interview with Die Welt newspaper, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday «additional steps» would have to be taken to deal with Greece's huge debt burden if an analysis from the European Central Bank and European Commission in June showed it is unsustainable. His comments were the first by a senior euro zone official acknowledging that some form of restructuring of Greek debt may be needed.
The ECB and the European Commission have both ruled out such a step, fearful that asking investors to accept changes such as smaller or later repayments could intensify the bloc's debt crisis, possibly sucking in other vulnerable economies. When asked by the daily how Greece, or other countries like Portugal, would ever be able to eliminate their «mountains of debt», Schaeuble said: «In June we will get a progress report. I'm expecting a detailed analysis on the debt sustainability of Greece, that will be done in consultation with the Commission and the ECB. If this report concludes that there are doubts about the debt sustainability of Greece, something must be done about it.» Asked what should be done, Schaeuble said: «Then further steps will have to be taken.» Schaeuble made clear, however, that any restructuring would have to happen on a voluntary basis if done before 2013, when new rules go into effect that envision private creditors shouldering losses in the event debt relief is provided to stricken euro zone states. «Until then a restructuring could only take place on a voluntary basis,» Schaeuble said.
RISING DOUBTS Debate among euro zone officials on a restructuring has been almost taboo since Athens accepted a 110 billion euro ($157 billion) bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund nearly a year ago, and opposition to the idea remains high across the zone. But rising doubts about Greece's ability to meet its fiscal targets and return to the markets for funding next year have convinced some senior officials in euro zone governments that a debt restructuring is inevitable. The Greek government has repeatedly ruled it out and the ECB also opposes it.
Chancellor Angela Merkel has stated that private creditors will not be forced to take any losses on euro zone debt before a new bailout mechanism for the bloc is up and running in 2013 — and even then, only debt issued after that date would be affected. But privately, some senior government officials in the zone have acknowledged for the first time what private economists have been saying for months — that some form of restructuring may have to happen sooner, probably in 2012. A slumping Greek economy — gross domestic product is expected to contract by 3 percent this year after a 4.5 percent drop in 2010 — and slow progress in tackling tax evasion have led to revenue shortfalls at a time when Athens should be reaping the low-hanging fruit from its reform drive. On Friday, Greece will present new fiscal and privatisation plans in an attempt to convince investors it can meet the terms of a European Union/International Monetary Fund bailout and avoid restructuring its debt
Analysts said the announcement was unlikely to mute increasing concerns that Athens' debt mountain is unsustainable and that Greece will eventually have to ask investors to accept reduced terms. Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou reiterated on Wednesday that the government did not intend to restructure debt, saying such a move would shut the country out from the markets for a long time and hurt the economy. Earlier on Wednesday, German weekly Die Zeit reported that EU experts have estimated that Greece must wipe away 40-50 percent of its debt load through a restructuring in order to return to a sustainable economic path
The newspaper, citing EU sources, said no decision had been taken on whether to pursue a restructuring of Greek debt, but various options were under consideration, including «less radical» solutions like a voluntary extension of maturities.
"БЕЖЕВАЯ КНИГА" ФРС США ЗА АПРЕЛЬ:СИТУАЦИЯ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ ПРОДОЛЖАЕТ УЛУЧШАТЬСЯ.НО ЭФФЕКТ ОТ ВЫСОКИХ ЦЕН НА СЫРЬЕ,НАЧИНАЕТ ОЩУЩАТЬСЯ
Экономика США продолжила улучшение в прошлом месяце, в первую очередь, благодаря производственному сектору, но частные фирмы испытали на себе подорожание энергоносителей и сырья, – сообщил сегодня Федрезерв.
«В то время, как многие регионы охарактеризовали улучшения как умеренные, большинство районов констатировали, что улучшения отмечались практически во всех отраслях, а Канзас Сити описал темпы экономического роста как основательные», – говориться в ежемесячном экономическом отчете Центробанка США, более известном, как «Бежевая Книга». – «Пром. производство продолжает лидировать, демонстрируя убедительные примеры уверенного и стабильного улучшения практически во всех регионах, зачастую демонстрируя увеличение численности рабочих мест», – добавляют представители Федрезерва.
WASHINGTON, April 13 (Reuters) — The U.S. economy continued to improve over the past month on gains in manufacturing, but firms are feeling the effects of higher energy and raw material costs, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday.
«While many districts described the improvements as only moderate, most districts stated that gains were widespread across sectors, and Kansas City described its economic gains as solid,» the U.S. central bank said in its Beige Book summary of economic conditions. «Manufacturing continued to lead, with virtually every district citing examples of steady improvement, often with reports of increased hiring,» the Fed added.
КИТАЙСКИЙ СУВЕРЕННЫЙ ФОНД МОЖЕТ ИНВЕСТИРОВАТЬ $ 13 МЛЛРД.В КАПИТАЛ ИСПАНСКИХ БАНКОВ
MADRID, April 13 (Reuters) — China's sovereign wealth fund along with private investors are studying investments of $13 billion in Spain's banks, a Spanish government source said on Wednesday
JPMorgan Chase & Co выкупает свои акции на 15 миллиардов долларов.
April 13 (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- largest U.S. bank by assets, said it will repurchase as much as $15 billion in shares.
АГЕНТСТВО S&P ОЦЕНИВАЕТ ШАНСЫ НА РЕСТРУКТУРИЗАЦИЮ ДОЛГОВ ГРЕЦИИ КАК 1 К 3
Так полагает кредитный аналитик Standard & Poor’s, господин Mortiz Kraemer, который высказал эти соображения в интервью немецкому изданию «Zeit».Шансы на то, что Греции нужна будет реструктуризация долгов составляют 1 к 3.Реструктурировать придется от 50 до 70% долга.
April 13 (Bloomberg) — Standard & Poor’s said that a restructuring of Greek sovereign debt could involve haircuts of between 50 percent and 70 percent, Zeit newspaper said today in an e-mailed summary of an interview.
Zeit reported the head of S&P’s European debt evaluation team, Mortiz Kraemer, as saying that the risk of a Greek debt restructuring was “almost one in three.” Kraemer said that he saw a restructuring of Irish debt as “extremely unlikely,” Zeit reported
ГРЕЦИЯ НЕ МОЖЕТ ВЫПЛАТИТЬ НЕМЕЦКИМ КОМПАНИЯМ ДОЛГИ
Об этом сообщает немецкая газета «Handelsblatt».Сумма задолженности греческих контрагентов перед своими немецкими партнерами составляет 500 миллионов евро, а платежи не идут.
April 13 (Bloomberg) — The Greek government, which owes German companies about 500 million euros, is unable to pay suppliers like Siemens AG, Bayer AG and Hochtief AG, Handelsblatt reported. Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said Greece is unable to pay the money owed “in one fell swoop” and is trying to speed up the payments, the newspaper said, citing an interview. Papaconstantinou didn’t confirm the figure of 500 million euros, though he did say there are outstanding payments, the newspaper reported.
Инфляция во Франции выросла на 0.9% в марте.Максимальные темпы роста за 2 года.
ИНДИКАТОРЫ РЫНКА:ОПТОВЫЕ ЦЕНЫ В ЯПОНИИ ВЫРОСЛИ В МАРТЕ НА 0.6%.МАКСИМАЛЬНЫЕ ТЕМПЫ РОСТА ЗА 2 ГОДА
В заявлении Агентства сообщалось, что «существует высокая вероятность значительного ухудшения качества активов» в китайской банковской системе в течение трех последующих лет, в частности, финансирования муниципальных программ и кредитования под залог имущества. Дефолтный рейтинг эмитента был понижен до отметки АА-. Также в отчете Агентства говорилось, несмотря на то, что поскольку к концу 2010 года общий процент непогашемых займов в банковской системе Китая достиг 1,1%, более строгая классификация займов органам местного самоуправления показала результат около 6%. В то же время, рост части «плохих займов» с 15 до 30% «может потребовать увеличения роста ВВП с 10% до 30 соответственно, для поддержания стабильности системы», – заявляет рейтинговое агентство.
Кризис банковской системы «является именно тем препятствием, не дающим возможности государству покрыть разницу 30%-ным ростом ВВП и считать проблему исчерпанной», – сказал Коллхаун. – «Все только-только начало с трудом налаживаться в этом мире». Китай столкнулся с 60%-ной вероятностью кризиса банковской системы к средине 2013 года после рекордных размеров предоставления займов и роста цен на недвижимость, – заявил 4 марта один из руководителей Агентства Fitch Ричард Фокс (Richard Fox). «На сегодня мы имеем банковскую систему огромных размеров, продолжающую расти стремительными темпами, и что тревожит больше всего – рост происходит в первую очередь в проблемных секторах», – заявляет Чарлен Чжу (Charlene Chu), Руководитель Отдела финансовых рынков Агентства Fitch. В самом конце 2010 года около 12% всех займов, выданных банковской системой, приходились на финансирование программ развития муниципалитетов, – говорит Чжу. – «Из этих 12% около четверти – это займы с покрытием наличностью меньше, чем 70%».
April 13 (Bloomberg) — An increase in Chinese banks’ total bad debt ratio to 30 percent is “not inconceivable” and that level of non-performing loans would “likely be negative” for China’s sovereign ratings, Andrew Colquhoun, the head of Fitch Ratings’ Asia-Pacific sovereign debt unit, said today. “There’s a risk that the emergence of asset quality problems in the banking system could lead to a broader loss of confidence either domestically, or less importantly, externally in China’s financial stability,” Hong Kong-based Colquhoun said on a conference call with investors and reporters today. Fitch yesterday lowered the outlook on China’s long-term local-currency issuer default rating to negative from stable.
The company said it sees a “high likelihood of a significant deterioration in asset quality” in China’s banking system in the next three years, with local government financing vehicles and property-related lending the primary areas of concern. Fitch yesterday affirmed the long-term local currency issuer default rating at AA-. While Chinese banks’ total non-performing loan ratio was 1.1 percent at the end of 2010, a more conservative classification of lending to local government financing vehicles would already take the figure closer to 6 percent, Fitch said in its report. A rise in the total bad debt ratio to 15 to 30 percent “could necessitate upwards of 10 percent to 30 percent of GDP in support for the system,” according to the report.
Banking Crisis “What we can’t do is take the approach of saying the sovereign writes a check for 30 percent of GDP and that’s the problem solved,” Colquhoun said. “Things rarely work out that smoothly in the real world.” China faces a 60 percent risk of a banking crisis by mid-2013 in the aftermath of record lending and surging property prices, according to a Fitch Ratings gauge, Richard Fox, a London-based senior director, said in a March 4 interview. “What we have is a very big banking system that is growing very rapidly with much of that growth going into questionable sectors,” Charlene Chu, senior director of financial institutions at Fitch, said on today’s conference call. In late 2010 about 12 percent of total loans outstanding in the banking system were to local government financing vehicles, Chu said. “Of that 12 percent, about one fourth consisted of loans with less than 70 percent cashflow coverage.”
МИНИСТР ФИНАНСОВ ГЕРМАНИИ SCHAEUBLE ГОВОРИТ:ИСКЛЮЧАТЬ РЕСТРУКТУРИЗАЦИЮ ДОЛГОВ ГРЕЦИИ,НЕЛЬЗЯ
Об этом немецкий министр заявил в интервью газете «Die Welt».По его словам, в июне (когда будет проведена «инспекция» греческой экономики со стороны МВФ и Еврокомиссии) и будет понятно, сможет ли Греция выдерживать столь большую долговую нагрузку.
22:10 13Apr11 RTRS-UPDATE 1-Germany acknowledges Greece may need debt restructure * Schaeuble: 'something must be done' if debt unsustainable By Noah Barkin BERLIN, April 13 (Reuters) — Germany acknowledged for the first time on Wednesday that Greece may need to restructure its debt but said such a step could only be pursued before 2013 if it were done on a voluntary basis. In an interview with Die Welt newspaper, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday «additional steps» would have to be taken to deal with Greece's huge debt burden if an analysis from the European Central Bank and European Commission in June showed it is unsustainable. His comments were the first by a senior euro zone official acknowledging that some form of restructuring of Greek debt may be needed.
The ECB and the European Commission have both ruled out such a step, fearful that asking investors to accept changes such as smaller or later repayments could intensify the bloc's debt crisis, possibly sucking in other vulnerable economies. When asked by the daily how Greece, or other countries like Portugal, would ever be able to eliminate their «mountains of debt», Schaeuble said: «In June we will get a progress report. I'm expecting a detailed analysis on the debt sustainability of Greece, that will be done in consultation with the Commission and the ECB. If this report concludes that there are doubts about the debt sustainability of Greece, something must be done about it.» Asked what should be done, Schaeuble said: «Then further steps will have to be taken.» Schaeuble made clear, however, that any restructuring would have to happen on a voluntary basis if done before 2013, when new rules go into effect that envision private creditors shouldering losses in the event debt relief is provided to stricken euro zone states. «Until then a restructuring could only take place on a voluntary basis,» Schaeuble said.
RISING DOUBTS Debate among euro zone officials on a restructuring has been almost taboo since Athens accepted a 110 billion euro ($157 billion) bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund nearly a year ago, and opposition to the idea remains high across the zone. But rising doubts about Greece's ability to meet its fiscal targets and return to the markets for funding next year have convinced some senior officials in euro zone governments that a debt restructuring is inevitable. The Greek government has repeatedly ruled it out and the ECB also opposes it.
Chancellor Angela Merkel has stated that private creditors will not be forced to take any losses on euro zone debt before a new bailout mechanism for the bloc is up and running in 2013 — and even then, only debt issued after that date would be affected. But privately, some senior government officials in the zone have acknowledged for the first time what private economists have been saying for months — that some form of restructuring may have to happen sooner, probably in 2012. A slumping Greek economy — gross domestic product is expected to contract by 3 percent this year after a 4.5 percent drop in 2010 — and slow progress in tackling tax evasion have led to revenue shortfalls at a time when Athens should be reaping the low-hanging fruit from its reform drive. On Friday, Greece will present new fiscal and privatisation plans in an attempt to convince investors it can meet the terms of a European Union/International Monetary Fund bailout and avoid restructuring its debt
Analysts said the announcement was unlikely to mute increasing concerns that Athens' debt mountain is unsustainable and that Greece will eventually have to ask investors to accept reduced terms. Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou reiterated on Wednesday that the government did not intend to restructure debt, saying such a move would shut the country out from the markets for a long time and hurt the economy. Earlier on Wednesday, German weekly Die Zeit reported that EU experts have estimated that Greece must wipe away 40-50 percent of its debt load through a restructuring in order to return to a sustainable economic path
The newspaper, citing EU sources, said no decision had been taken on whether to pursue a restructuring of Greek debt, but various options were under consideration, including «less radical» solutions like a voluntary extension of maturities.
"БЕЖЕВАЯ КНИГА" ФРС США ЗА АПРЕЛЬ:СИТУАЦИЯ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ ПРОДОЛЖАЕТ УЛУЧШАТЬСЯ.НО ЭФФЕКТ ОТ ВЫСОКИХ ЦЕН НА СЫРЬЕ,НАЧИНАЕТ ОЩУЩАТЬСЯ
Экономика США продолжила улучшение в прошлом месяце, в первую очередь, благодаря производственному сектору, но частные фирмы испытали на себе подорожание энергоносителей и сырья, – сообщил сегодня Федрезерв.
«В то время, как многие регионы охарактеризовали улучшения как умеренные, большинство районов констатировали, что улучшения отмечались практически во всех отраслях, а Канзас Сити описал темпы экономического роста как основательные», – говориться в ежемесячном экономическом отчете Центробанка США, более известном, как «Бежевая Книга». – «Пром. производство продолжает лидировать, демонстрируя убедительные примеры уверенного и стабильного улучшения практически во всех регионах, зачастую демонстрируя увеличение численности рабочих мест», – добавляют представители Федрезерва.
WASHINGTON, April 13 (Reuters) — The U.S. economy continued to improve over the past month on gains in manufacturing, but firms are feeling the effects of higher energy and raw material costs, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday.
«While many districts described the improvements as only moderate, most districts stated that gains were widespread across sectors, and Kansas City described its economic gains as solid,» the U.S. central bank said in its Beige Book summary of economic conditions. «Manufacturing continued to lead, with virtually every district citing examples of steady improvement, often with reports of increased hiring,» the Fed added.
КИТАЙСКИЙ СУВЕРЕННЫЙ ФОНД МОЖЕТ ИНВЕСТИРОВАТЬ $ 13 МЛЛРД.В КАПИТАЛ ИСПАНСКИХ БАНКОВ
MADRID, April 13 (Reuters) — China's sovereign wealth fund along with private investors are studying investments of $13 billion in Spain's banks, a Spanish government source said on Wednesday
JPMorgan Chase & Co выкупает свои акции на 15 миллиардов долларов.
April 13 (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- largest U.S. bank by assets, said it will repurchase as much as $15 billion in shares.
АГЕНТСТВО S&P ОЦЕНИВАЕТ ШАНСЫ НА РЕСТРУКТУРИЗАЦИЮ ДОЛГОВ ГРЕЦИИ КАК 1 К 3
Так полагает кредитный аналитик Standard & Poor’s, господин Mortiz Kraemer, который высказал эти соображения в интервью немецкому изданию «Zeit».Шансы на то, что Греции нужна будет реструктуризация долгов составляют 1 к 3.Реструктурировать придется от 50 до 70% долга.
April 13 (Bloomberg) — Standard & Poor’s said that a restructuring of Greek sovereign debt could involve haircuts of between 50 percent and 70 percent, Zeit newspaper said today in an e-mailed summary of an interview.
Zeit reported the head of S&P’s European debt evaluation team, Mortiz Kraemer, as saying that the risk of a Greek debt restructuring was “almost one in three.” Kraemer said that he saw a restructuring of Irish debt as “extremely unlikely,” Zeit reported
ГРЕЦИЯ НЕ МОЖЕТ ВЫПЛАТИТЬ НЕМЕЦКИМ КОМПАНИЯМ ДОЛГИ
Об этом сообщает немецкая газета «Handelsblatt».Сумма задолженности греческих контрагентов перед своими немецкими партнерами составляет 500 миллионов евро, а платежи не идут.
April 13 (Bloomberg) — The Greek government, which owes German companies about 500 million euros, is unable to pay suppliers like Siemens AG, Bayer AG and Hochtief AG, Handelsblatt reported. Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said Greece is unable to pay the money owed “in one fell swoop” and is trying to speed up the payments, the newspaper said, citing an interview. Papaconstantinou didn’t confirm the figure of 500 million euros, though he did say there are outstanding payments, the newspaper reported.
Инфляция во Франции выросла на 0.9% в марте.Максимальные темпы роста за 2 года.
ИНДИКАТОРЫ РЫНКА:ОПТОВЫЕ ЦЕНЫ В ЯПОНИИ ВЫРОСЛИ В МАРТЕ НА 0.6%.МАКСИМАЛЬНЫЕ ТЕМПЫ РОСТА ЗА 2 ГОДА
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