12 января 2025 War, Wealth & Wisdom | Nvidia
Howard Marks рассуждает на тему ”What’s the Appropriate Price to Pay for a Bright Future?” и сравнивает нынешних лидеров рынка с Nifty Fifty – пузырем топовых американских акций в конце 1960-х. На его взгляд, платить высокие мультипликаторы за технологические компании опасно, так как лидеры рынка редко сохраняют свои позиции на протяжении десятилетий.
Today’s S&P-leading companies are, in many ways, much better than the best companies of the past. They enjoy massive technological advantages. They have vast scale, dominant market shares, and thus above average profit margins. And since their products are based on ideas more than metal, the marginal cost of producing an additional unit is low, meaning their marginal profitability is unusually high.
The further good news is that today’s leaders don’t trade at the p/e ratios investors applied to the Nifty Fifty. Perhaps the sexiest of the seven is Nvidia, the leading designer of chips for artificial intelligence. It’s current multiple of future earnings is in the low 30s, depending on which earnings estimate you believe. While double the average post-war p/e on the S&P 500, that’s cheap compared to the Nifty Fifty. But what does a multiple in the 30s imply? First, that investors think Nvidia will be in business for decades to come. Second, that its profits will grow throughout those decades. And third, that it won’t be supplanted by competitors. In other words, investors are assuming Nvidia will demonstrate persistence.
But persistence isn’t easily achieved, especially in high-tech fields where new technologies can arise and new competitors can leapfrog incumbents. It’s worth noting, for example, that only about half the Nifty Fifty (as enumerated by Wikipedia – there is no agreed-on list) are in the S&P 500 today.
The further good news is that today’s leaders don’t trade at the p/e ratios investors applied to the Nifty Fifty. Perhaps the sexiest of the seven is Nvidia, the leading designer of chips for artificial intelligence. It’s current multiple of future earnings is in the low 30s, depending on which earnings estimate you believe. While double the average post-war p/e on the S&P 500, that’s cheap compared to the Nifty Fifty. But what does a multiple in the 30s imply? First, that investors think Nvidia will be in business for decades to come. Second, that its profits will grow throughout those decades. And third, that it won’t be supplanted by competitors. In other words, investors are assuming Nvidia will demonstrate persistence.
But persistence isn’t easily achieved, especially in high-tech fields where new technologies can arise and new competitors can leapfrog incumbents. It’s worth noting, for example, that only about half the Nifty Fifty (as enumerated by Wikipedia – there is no agreed-on list) are in the S&P 500 today.
На наш взгляд, с этим аргументом трудно не согласиться: маловероятно, что в быстро меняющейся технологической сфере все современные лидеры сохранят свои позиции настолько долго, как это предполагается их текущими мультипликаторами. Еще сложнее представить, что Nvidia сможет долгосрочно поддерживать свою текущую маржинальность, которая радикально выше по сравнению с конкурентами.
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