29 апреля 2024 War, Wealth & Wisdom
Wall Street Journal рассказал о планах команды Трампа в случае его победы поставить под свой контроль ФРС, включая ее решения по монетарной политике. Даже частичная реализация подобного плана может иметь катастрофические последствия для рынков: это приведет в США к классическому долговому кризису, как на emerging markets. Нечто подобное, хотя и очень краткосрочно, наблюдалось в Великобритании после плана снижения налогов премьера Лиз Трасс в 2022 году, когда одновременно сильно падали и фунт, и гособлигации, и акции.
The allies of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump are drafting proposals that would attempt to erode the Federal Reserve's independence if he wins, the Wall Street Journal reported, opens new tab on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. A small group of the former president's allies has produced a nearly 10-page document outlining a policy vision for the central bank, according to the report. The group argues that Trump should be consulted on rate decisions and would have the authority to remove Jerome Powell as Fed Chair before his term ends in 2026, the report added…
However remote the likelihood of such a plan becoming reality in its entirety or in part, the prospect of Trump having extensive sway over Fed policy decisions that wield tremendous influence over the direction of the world's largest economy and global asset markets was already resonating…
"If Fed independence is eroded it would be absolutely disastrous," said Citigroup Global Chief Economist Nathan Sheets, who served as under secretary for international affairs for the U.S. Treasury under Trump's predecessor, Democrat Barack Obama. “When I think about the risk for markets and the dollar, any policy change that eroded Fed independence in an appreciable way would be greeted by the market very vigorously and adversely and be a source of great pressure and volatility," he said. "Any gains a political actor might think they glean would be so small compared to the potential cost that they might have ... it leaves me optimistic it is not a game worth playing," – пишет Reuters.
Скорее всего, практическая реализация этого плана невозможна из-за законодательных ограничений: в США президент не может стать диктатором и подчинить себе все государственные структуры. Тем не менее, даже небольшие намеки на сокращение независимости ФРС могут привести к очень резкой реакции рынков. Это заставляет с осторожностью относиться к самым долгосрочным US Treasuries (более 10-15 лет), несмотря на сильное падение их цен и привлекательные реальные ставки. В целом возможная победа Трампа – в отличие от 2016 года – может стать негативом для рынков.
The allies of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump are drafting proposals that would attempt to erode the Federal Reserve's independence if he wins, the Wall Street Journal reported, opens new tab on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. A small group of the former president's allies has produced a nearly 10-page document outlining a policy vision for the central bank, according to the report. The group argues that Trump should be consulted on rate decisions and would have the authority to remove Jerome Powell as Fed Chair before his term ends in 2026, the report added…
However remote the likelihood of such a plan becoming reality in its entirety or in part, the prospect of Trump having extensive sway over Fed policy decisions that wield tremendous influence over the direction of the world's largest economy and global asset markets was already resonating…
"If Fed independence is eroded it would be absolutely disastrous," said Citigroup Global Chief Economist Nathan Sheets, who served as under secretary for international affairs for the U.S. Treasury under Trump's predecessor, Democrat Barack Obama. “When I think about the risk for markets and the dollar, any policy change that eroded Fed independence in an appreciable way would be greeted by the market very vigorously and adversely and be a source of great pressure and volatility," he said. "Any gains a political actor might think they glean would be so small compared to the potential cost that they might have ... it leaves me optimistic it is not a game worth playing," – пишет Reuters.
Скорее всего, практическая реализация этого плана невозможна из-за законодательных ограничений: в США президент не может стать диктатором и подчинить себе все государственные структуры. Тем не менее, даже небольшие намеки на сокращение независимости ФРС могут привести к очень резкой реакции рынков. Это заставляет с осторожностью относиться к самым долгосрочным US Treasuries (более 10-15 лет), несмотря на сильное падение их цен и привлекательные реальные ставки. В целом возможная победа Трампа – в отличие от 2016 года – может стать негативом для рынков.
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