15 января 2009 Архив
РБК, 14 янв -- Фондовые торги в США закрылись в среду существенным снижением ведущих индексов
на фоне макроэкономических новостей. 14 января 2009г.
Dow Jones потерял 2,94% (-248,42 пункта),
Nasdaq опустился на 56,82 пункта(-3,67%),
а Standard&Poor's 500 - на 29,11 пункта (-3,34%).
Индекс Dow Jones падает уже шестую торговую сессию подряд.
Пессимизм инвесторов, по мнению аналитиков, вызвал доклад Министерства торговли США, согласно которому объем розничных продаж в стране в декабре 2008г. снизился на 2,7% по сравнению с ноябрем 2008г. и составил 343,24 млрд долл. Аналитики ожидали, что этот показатель снизится на 1,2%.
Это сообщение привело к падению котировок акций таких компаний как General Electric Co., Macy"s Inc. и American Express Co. на 5,5-6%.
Кроме того, Минтруда США обнародовало данные о снижении цен на импортные товары и услуги в декабре 2008г. на 4,2% по сравнению с предыдущим месяцем. Согласно пересмотренным данным, в США в ноябре 2008г. цены на импорт по сравнению с предыдущим месяцем снизились на 7%. Не особо оптимистичным оказался и доклад Минторга о запасах произведенных товаров, комплектующих и полуфабрикатов на складах США за ноябрь 2008г. Согласно докладу, этот показатель снизился на 0,7% по сравнению с октябрем 2008г. Аналитики ожидали снижения показателя на 0,5% в месячном исчислении.
Одновременно негативную динамику определили и корпоративные новости в финансовом секторе. В среду стало известно, что банк Citigroup договорился о продаже Morgan Stanely контрольного (51%) пакета акций своего брокерского подразделения Smith Barney за 2,7 млрд долл. Инвесторы расценили этот шаг как вынужденную меру, что вызвало дополнительные опасения относительно финансового положения банка. Акции Citigroup по итогам торговой сессии потеряли 23%, бумаги Morgan Stanley – 7%.
Котировки крупнейшего в мире производителя кетчупа H.J.Heinz Co. в по итогам торгов упали на 3,5% после того, как аналитики из Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. понизили рекомендации по его акциям с "выше рынка" до "на уровне рынка".
Вместе с тем, цены на нефть в США опустились незначительно. В Нью-Йорке на New York Mercantile Exchange за баррель нефти марки Light, Sweet Crude Oil давали 37,28 (-0,50). А в Лондоне на InterContinental Exchange Futures баррель IPE Brent Crude подорожал на четверть доллара – до 45,08 долл./барр.
Добавим, что в Европе фондовые торги в среду закрылись падением большинства биржевых индексов. Общеевропейский индекс FTSEEurofirst снизился по итогам торгов более чем на 4% (-36,19 пункта) и составил 804,17 пункта.
Japan Machine Orders Fall by Record on Export Slump (Update3)
By Jason Clenfield
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machinery orders fell by a record in November as businesses cut spending amid a deepening global recession that’s choked off demand for the country’s cars and electronics.
Orders, an indicator of capital spending in the next three to six months, slid 16.2 percent from October, the biggest drop since the current survey began in 1987, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted an 8 percent decline.
Recessions in the U.S. and Europe have stifled demand for Japan’s exports, prompting companies from Toyota Motor Corp. to Sony Corp. to curtail production and fire workers. The Bank of Japan has little room to spur the economy after cutting interest rates close to zero, and political wrangling is holding up Prime Minister Taro Aso’s measures aimed at spurring growth.
“Japan is heading into a deep recession,” said Junko Nishioka, an economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “The report suggests the pace of declines in capital spending will accelerate in coming months.”
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 4 percent to 8,102.77, led by Fanuc Ltd., the world’s largest industrial robot maker. The yen traded at 89.02 per dollar at 11:05 a.m. in Tokyo from 89.13 before the report was published.
Steepest Decline
The world’s second-largest economy may have shrunk as much as 12 percent on an annualized basis last quarter, Barclays Capital predicts, which would be the steepest decline since 1974. Exports plunged 26.7 percent in November, the sharpest decline since comparable data were made available in 1980, and factory output dropped 8.1 percent, the most in more than a half century.
Mounting evidence of a weakening economy prompted the Bank of Japan last month to cut interest rates to 0.1 percent from 0.3 percent. Aso has yet to get approval from the opposition-led upper house to spend 10 trillion yen ($112 billion) on financial aid for households and companies.
Weak domestic demand and falling oil prices may herald a return to the deflation that plagued Japan for almost a decade until 2005. Producer prices rose 1.1 percent in December, the slowest pace since May 2004, a central bank report today showed. Wages tumbled 1.9 percent in November and consumers have pared spending for nine consecutive months.
“Deflation will probably re-emerge as a problem for the Japanese economy in mid-2009,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Co. in Tokyo. “It will remain difficult to forecast when the global economy will pick up and start to lift prices.”
Orders Tumble
Tokyo Electron Ltd., Japan’s largest maker of semiconductor equipment, last week said orders tumbled 81 percent as chipmakers postponed spending plans. Orders for display- production machinery and solar-panel equipment plummeted to 500 million yen from 57.3 billion yen, the company said.
“Capital expenditure is likely to suffer a heavy blow,” said Takuji Okubo, a senior economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in Tokyo. “With the collapse in exports and industrial production, companies are likely to respond by postponing and cutting investment.”
The yen’s 18 percent gain against the dollar since September is eroding exporters’ profits, adding to their woes.
Toyota said last week it will close all of its domestic factories for 11 days. Japan’s biggest carmaker is expecting its first operating loss in seven decades for the year ending March.
Sony, which last month said it will have to shut factories and fire 16,000 workers, may also have a loss for the year, the Nikkei newspaper reported.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 14, 2009 21:11 EST
Oil Trades Little Changed After Falling on U.S. Stockpile Gain
By Christian Schmollinger
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed after falling yesterday as slowing fuel demand sent U.S. stockpiles soaring to a 16-month high.
Inventories of crude increased 1.14 million barrels to 326.6 million last week, the highest since Aug. 31, 2007, the U.S. Energy Department said yesterday. Gasoline and distillate fuel supplies also rose. Fuel demand dropped 6 percent, the largest one-week decline in almost five years, as the Federal Reserve reported the U.S. economy weakened further in the past month.
“The data continues to show that the overall demand for oil is very weak,” said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. “The inventory build shouldn’t be surprising given the weakness in consumption.”
Crude oil for February delivery was at $37 a barrel, down 28 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:29 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, futures fell 50 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $37.28 a barrel in New York, the lowest settlement since Dec. 24. Futures are down 60 percent from a year ago.
U.S. inventories of crude oil were forecast to rise 2.5 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 9, according to the median of 15 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The increase last week left stockpiles 10 percent higher than the five-year average for the period, the department said.
Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, where oil traded on Nymex is stored, climbed 2.5 percent to 33 million barrels last week, the highest since at least April 2004, when the department began keeping records for the location.
Contango Increases
The price of oil for delivery in February 2010 is 58 percent more than for the front-month contract, allowing traders to profit if they have the ability to store crude. February 2009 crude is trading at a $7.14 discount to March, from $3.88 on Jan. 5. This structure, in which the subsequent month’s price is higher than the one before it, is known as contango.
“The high levels of inventories are depressing the near- term Nymex price,” said Commonwealth Bank’s Moore. “As well, we have these concerns about the international economy.”
Frontline Ltd., the world’s biggest owner of supertankers, said about 80 million barrels of crude oil are being stored in tankers, the most in 20 years, as traders seek to take advantage of higher prices later in the year.
Fuel Stockpiles
Brent crude oil for February settlement was at $44.97 a barrel, down 11 cents, on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange at 9:10 a.m. Singapore time. It rose 25 cents, or 0.6 percent, to settle at $45.08 yesterday. The contract expires today.
The more-active March contract was at $47.55 a barrel, down 7 cents, at 9:11 a.m. Singapore time.
The price of Brent oil in London for delivery in February is more than $7 a barrel higher than that for West Texas Intermediate oil, the grade that’s traded in New York, during the same month.
Gasoline stockpiles rose 2.07 million barrels to 213.5 million barrels, higher than the 1.85 million-barrel increase forecast in the survey. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, surged 6.35 million barrels to 144.2 million barrels, the biggest gain since January 2004.
Gasoline futures for February delivery rose 0.23 cent to $1.17 a gallon in New York. Heating oil for February was at $1.4578 a gallon, down 0.53 cent, after dropping 3.4 percent to end the session at $1.4631 a gallon yesterday.
Sales at U.S. retailers fell more than twice as much as forecast in December as job losses and the choking-off of credit led Americans to cut back on everything from eating out to car purchases. The 2.7 percent decrease, the sixth consecutive drop, extended the longest series of declines in records going back to 1992, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington.
The U.S. economy weakened across almost all regions, hurt by a lack of credit and declines in retail sales, the Federal Reserve said yesterday in its regional business survey.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: January 14, 2009 20:55 EST
Natural Gas Falls to 2-Year Low on Slumping U.S. Fuel Demand
By Reg Curren
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas in New York fell to the lowest level in more than two years on signs of slowing demand from factories and power plants as the recession deepens.
Gas tumbled today after a Commerce Department report showed that sales at retailers last month fell more than twice as much as forecast. Industrial demand, which accounted for 29 percent of U.S. gas usage, is weakening as petrochemical and steel companies cut output.
“People are extremely concerned about the drop-off in demand,” said Tom Orr, research director at Weeden & Co. in Greenwich, Connecticut. “We were anticipating a 3 percent decline in gas use in 2009.”
Natural gas for February delivery fell 21.4 cents, or 4.1 percent, to settle at $4.97 per million British thermal units at 3:07 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest settlement since Sept. 27, 2006. Gas fell 6.5 percent yesterday and has dropped 12 percent so far this month.
“The decline yesterday was particularly disturbing with the cold weather,” Orr said. “People are now taking out technical levels. Once $5 was broken that will take it down to $4.50.”
An Energy Department supply report, scheduled for release tomorrow, may show a decline in U.S. stockpiles of 104 billion cubic feet in the week ended Jan. 9, according to median of 15 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The average change for the week is a decline of 88 billion, according to the department.
Stockpile Reports
“There’s just too much gas out there and it all goes back to the economy,” said Brad Florer, a trader at Kottke Associates Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. “I haven’t seen or read anything that tells me there is a recovery any time soon.”
Energy demand will continue to dissipate through at least the first half of 2009 as the U.S. economy stumbles, keeping stockpiles ample, Florer said.
Inventories stood at 2.83 trillion cubic feet in the week ended Jan. 2, the Energy Department said last week. The surplus to the five-year average expanded to 3.2 percent from 2 percent in the previous week’s report.
Crude oil fell 50 cents, or 1.3 percent, to settle at $37.28 a barrel in New York after the department said stockpiles climbed and demand slowed.
Inventories of crude increased 1.14 million barrels to 326.6 million last week, the highest since Aug. 31, 2007, the Energy Department said. Fuel demand dropped 6 percent to an average 18.6 million barrels a day, the largest one-week decline since February 2004.
“Economic news continues to paint a picture of softness that should outlast the cold weather,” George Hopley, an analyst at Barclays Capital in New York, said in a note today.
Gas Output
Gas production this year will rise 0.7 percent as consumption shrinks by 1 percent, a monthly Energy Department report showed yesterday. The department raised its estimate of gas output gains in 2008 to 5.9 percent from an increase of 5.4 percent in last month’s report.
“Production was raging and then the economy turned fast,” said George Ellis, a director in the energy derivatives group at BMO Capital Markets in New York. “So we’re in a disconnect situation, where demand has fallen off rapidly and production is still there.”
Temperatures are forecast to be below normal in the eastern half of the U.S. from today through Jan. 20, according to forecaster MDA Federal Inc.’s EarthSat Energy Weather of Rockville, Maryland.
“Right now we’re a long way from fundamentals,” said Michael Rose, a director of trading at Angus Jackson Inc. in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
Current prices provide an opportunity to those who need to hedge against the possibility of higher gas costs later in the year, Rose said.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Reg Curren in Calgary at rcurren@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: January 14, 2009 16:01 EST
Euro Trades Near Five-Week Low Versus Dollar Before ECB Meeting
By Stanley White and Ron Harui
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The euro traded near a five-week low against the dollar on speculation the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by a least half a percentage point at a policy meeting today.
The yen strengthened versus the New Zealand dollar after a U.S. report showing retail sales slumped raised concern the global recession is deepening, boosting the haven appeal of the Japanese currency. The Australian dollar fell to a five-week low versus the greenback after the country’s unemployment rate rose to the highest level in almost two years.
“There’s no doubt that the ECB will cut rates by 50 basis points, with some expecting 75 and even 100 basis points,” said Ryohei Muramatsu, manager of Group Treasury Asia at Commerzbank AG in Tokyo. “It’s obvious that the euro zone’s economy is worsening. There’s a downside risk for the euro.”
The euro bought $1.3169 as of 10:52 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3191 late yesterday in New York, when it touched $1.3093, the lowest level since Dec. 11. The euro traded at 117.31 yen from 117.46 yen. It fell yesterday to 116.58 yen, the weakest level since Dec. 5. The dollar bought 89.10 yen from 89.05 yen.
Europe’s single currency may “test” yesterday’s low of $1.3093 and 116.58 yen today, Muramatsu said.
The Australian dollar declined to 65.96 U.S. cents from 66.11 cents late yesterday in New York. It fell to 65.63 cents, the lowest level since Dec. 12, after the government said Australia’s jobless rate rose to 4.5 percent in December, adding to signs the economy is facing its first recession since 1991.
Korean Won
The South Korean won weakened 1.3 percent to 1,366.20 per dollar after Vice Finance Minister Bae Kook Hwan said economic growth this year may fall short of predictions from the Bank of Korea and the International Monetary Fund.
The yen advanced to 47.81 versus the New Zealand dollar from 48.29 late yesterday in New York. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares slid 3.2 percent after U.S. retail sales fell 2.7 percent in December, more than twice the amount economists forecast.
The yen has advanced against all major currencies this year, rising 9.5 percent versus the New Zealand’s dollar. Japan’s 0.1 percent benchmark rate compares with 5 percent in New Zealand.
“Given the intense risk aversion that’s in the market, the yen is the best looking currency in a contest of ugly currencies across the board,” said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “Over the next six months, as the global economy slows sharply and earnings releases disappoint to the downside, that risk aversion will remain elevated and deteriorate further.”
Dollar Index
The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures, which tracks the greenback versus six major U.S. trading partners, touched 84.64 yesterday, the strongest since Dec. 11, as investors flocked from higher-yielding assets into U.S. Treasuries for safety.
The index has gained 3.8 percent this year, after losing 6 percent in December, when the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rates to a range between zero and 0.25 percent, a record low.
“The improvement in the tone of risk appetite since earlier this year had a set-back,” said Todd Elmer, a currency strategist at Citigroup Global Markets in New York. “The correlation between risk aversion and a stronger dollar is not over yet. That means continued strength in the dollar versus high-yielding assets.”
Deutsche Bank
The euro began to weaken after Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s largest bank, reported a record loss of about 4.8 billion euros ($6.32 billion) in the fourth quarter.
A Credit Suisse Group AG gauge of probability based on overnight index swaps indicated the ECB will lower its 2.5 percent main rate by at least half a percentage point today, with 7 percent odds that the cut will be deeper. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg is for a 0.5 percentage-point reduction.
The European currency rose 10 percent versus the dollar in December when ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said he didn’t want to be “trapped” with borrowing costs too low. The rally reversed this month as speculation mounted that the ECB will be forced to cut interest rates again as the economic slowdown deepened. The euro lost 6 percent versus the dollar this month.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net;
Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: January 14, 2009 21:12 EST
U.S. Treasuries Advance; 10-Year Yield Approaches Record Low
By Wes Goodman
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries advanced, with 10-year yields within 15 basis points of a record low, as stocks dropped and economists estimated government reports today and tomorrow will show consumer and wholesale prices are falling.
The 10-year note yield fell two basis points to 2.18 percent as of 11 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. The record low of 2.04 percent was set Dec. 18. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: January 14, 2009 21:04 EST
U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Decline for a Sixth Month (Update4)
By Bob Willis
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers fell more than twice as much as forecast in December as job losses and the lack of credit led Americans to cut back on everything from car purchases to eating out.
The 2.7 percent slump marked the sixth straight month of declines, the longest string since comparable records began in 1992, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Labor Department data showed the global collapse in commodities caused prices of goods imported by the U.S. to fall for a fifth month.
Today’s sales figures indicate the hit to spending in the recession is even deeper than estimated, and spurred a sell-off in stocks. The loss of 2.6 million jobs and declining home and stock values are squeezing households, hurting retailers from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to Tiffany & Co., which today said its holiday sales fell 21 percent and cut its earnings forecast.
“There is a major retrenchment going on,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc., a New York forecasting firm. “All that policy can do at this stage is cushion this. You can’t short-circuit it.”
Commerce also reported that inventories at all businesses in November dropped 0.7 percent, more than economists estimated and the third straight decrease. A 1.7 percent decline in stockpiles at retailers, as furniture stores and auto dealers cut back, paced the overall slump.
Stocks Slump
Treasuries rallied, sending yields on benchmark 10-year notes down to 2.20 percent at 4:26 p.m. in New York, from 2.29 percent late yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index slid 3.4 percent to close at 842.62.
Retail sales were projected to fall 1.2 percent after an originally reported 1.8 percent drop the prior month, according to the median estimate of 78 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Forecasts ranged from declines of 3.5 percent to 0.3 percent.
Purchases excluding automobiles slumped 3.1 percent, the most since records began. The decline also exceeded the median estimate of economists surveyed that projected a 1.4 percent drop.
The decline in purchases and lack of credit caused a further weakening in the economy across almost all areas of the country in the past month, the Federal Reserve said today in its regional business survey. Retailers engaged in “deep discounting” during the holidays, with “sizable” price cuts, while wage pressures were “largely contained,” the Fed report found.
Obama Plan
Today’s sales report will serve as a reminder to lawmakers of the urgency to enact President-elect Barack Obama’s stimulus proposals to combat the recession.
Obama, who takes office Jan. 20, is proposing a two-year recovery plan that includes about $300 billion in tax cuts for individuals and businesses and infrastructure spending aimed at creating or saving 4 million jobs.
“It’s not too late to change course -- but only if we take immediate and dramatic action,” Obama said in his weekly radio address on Jan. 10.
Labor Department figures showed the import-price index decreased 4.2 percent, less than economists forecast, after a revised 7 percent drop in November. Prices from a year earlier were down 9.3 percent, the largest year-over-year decline since the index was first published in 1982. Prices excluding fuels dropped 1.1 percent last month.
“This is a reflection of the synchronicity of a slowdown in demand worldwide,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc. in New York.
First Drop
Retail sales fell 0.1 percent for all of 2008 compared with the prior year, the first decrease in the Commerce Department’s records. Comparable data only go back to 1992 because government economists reformulated their retail-sales figures earlier this decade, and didn’t revise historical records beyond that year.
November’s decline was revised to 2.1 percent from a previously estimated fall of 1.8 percent.
Today’s report showed declines in 11 of the 13 major categories tracked by the government, led by a 16 percent plunge at gasoline service stations that partly reflected the slump in fuel costs. The drop at grocery stores was the biggest since April 2002 and the decrease at restaurants was the largest since the terrorist attacks in September 2001.
Only health and beauty stores and a miscellaneous category saw increases last month.
Auto Slump
Purchases of expensive goods are falling as banks restrict access to credit. Auto sales fell 36 percent in December from the same month last year, capping the industry’s worst year since 1992.
Same-store sales dropped 2.2 percent in the last two months of 2008, making it the worst holiday shopping season in almost four decades of record keeping, the International Council of Shopping Centers said last week.
The first half of this year will also be “extraordinarily challenging,” Wal-Mart Chief Executive Officer H. Lee Scott told a retailers’ convention this week in New York City. “Some people are giving up eating out; some people are giving up movies; some people are giving up other things like shopping,” Scott said. “Those are fundamental changes that will continue.”
Knoxville, Tennessee-based Goody’s LLC, operator of a 282- store U.S. clothing chain, and Fresno, California-based Gottschalks Inc., owner of department stores in six western states, sought bankruptcy protection after sales slumped.
‘No Other Recourse’
“Persistent challenges in the economy and recent unexpected reductions to our borrowing capacity as a result of tightening credit markets have left us with no other recourse,” Jim Famalette, Gottschalks’ chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement.
Americans are scrimping as unemployment last month rose to 7.2 percent, the highest level in almost 16 years. Job losses are likely to continue for most of this year, economists said.
The plunge at filling stations in part reflected a 43 cent- per-gallon drop in the average cost of gasoline last month. Excluding gas, retail sales fell 1.4 percent.
The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5 percent annual pace from July through September as Americans reduced purchases at a 3.8 percent annual rate, the first decline in consumer spending since 1991 and the biggest in 28 years, the government said last month.
The economic slump probably worsened in the fourth quarter as declines in business investment and construction intensified and consumers continued to pull back.
Excluding autos, gasoline and building materials, the retail group the government uses to calculate gross domestic product figures for consumer spending, sales dropped 1.4 percent, after a 0.1 percent increase in the prior month. The government uses data from other sources to calculate the contribution from the three categories excluded.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 14, 2009 16:28 EST